Saturday morning, the National Hurricane Center highlighted the Southwestern Gulf of Mexico within a 20% chance (low) for tropical development this upcoming week.
A broad area of low pressure is expected to develop as environmental conditions become favorable for potential organization. This organization and strengthening could allow for a tropical cyclone to eventually develop although the odds are currently low.
It’s too early to determine which areas could see impacts from this system, tropical or not, but all interests along the Gulf Coast and Southeast Coast should keep a close eye on the forecast over the coming days.
It’s possible the first official week of the 2022 Atlantic Hurricane Season gets off to a quick start. Models are suggesting increased odds of some type of tropical development in the Gulf of Mexico sometime around the middle to end of next week/weekend. To be precise, this is sometime around June 1-5.
There is a strong likelihood that a tropical system will develop in the Eastern Pacific later this week/weekend. The National Hurricane Center gives this system an 80% chance, or a high chance, to develop over the next 5 days in the Eastern Pacific.
As this system develops and organizes, it appears it’ll make landfall in south Mexico/Central America before crossing over into the Bay of Campeche. As this system crosses the higher terrain of this region, it’ll likely dissipate becoming a non-organized, non-tropical system but some of the energy and structure will remain intact.
At that point, the system could develop back onto a tropical cyclone, possibly a Tropical Depression or Tropical Storm. It’s too early for specifics but wind shear at the time looks light enough to favor development and the sea surface temperatures are quite warm in the region. In fact, the entire Gulf of Mexico is running above average right now.
Because of this, models have started honing in on the possibility of development in the Southwestern Gulf of Mexico late next week. The reliable European ensembles are showing a greater than 50% chance for development near the Bay of Campeche late next week.
If this system develops, there are a lot of questions as to where it would move. A lot of times, these systems can make landfall in Mexico but some also have impacted the U.S. While it’s too early to make this call if this system even develops, the European guidance is suggesting the system could potentially meander in the Central Gulf of Mexico, possibly to eventually be picked up by a trough which will pull the system northeast toward possibly the Gulf States.
Again, a lot of questions to be ironed out. This system could not even develop and U.S. impacts are far from a given. At this point, keep checking back frequently for updates if you live along the Gulf Coast and/or Southeast Coast.
Climatologically favored areas for tropical development during June are the Gulf of Mexico and the western Caribbean so it bears watching. Stay tuned!
The 2022 Atlantic Hurricane Season is expected to feature above-average activity according to NOAA’s latest forecast. NOAA is forecasting 14-21 Named Storms (average 14), 6-10 Hurricanes (average 7), and 3-6 Major Hurricanes (average 3).
NOAA gives the odds of an above-average season of 65%. The reasons for the expected above-average activity are due to La Nina and associated weaker trade winds, warm sea-surface temperatures, and an active West African monsoon. These variables all favor a hyperactive season.
It’s important to note: that just because an above-average season is expected, that does not mean all named systems will impact land but the odds do increase with an above-average season. Also, it only takes ONE system to impact land to cause significant, life-altering impacts.
Here is the list of Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Names for the upcoming 2022 Atlantic Hurricane Season.
The Atlantic Hurricane Season begins June 1 but it is important to begin preparing NOW so you’re ready for hurricane season. Here are a few tips to be prepared in case a tropical system impacts your area: determine your personal hurricane risk, find out if you live in a hurricane evacuation zone, and review/update insurance policies, make a list of items to replenish hurricane emergency supplies and prepare your home for the coming hurricane season.
A strong summer-like ridge is controlling the weather across the South & Southeast. This ridge is allowing temperatures to skyrocket well above average into the 90s and this is expected to stick around through the end of the workweek into the first half of the weekend, but there are changes in store with a changing weather pattern.
Guidance suggests this ridge will weaken and move eastward off the Southeast coast with a trough digging into central parts of the country. This changing weather pattern will help increase moisture on the western periphery of the ridge along with sending a cold front into the region for the second half of the weekend.
Temperatures will stay in the 90s through Saturday but the cold front arrives overnight Saturday into Sunday, which will significantly drop temperatures. Temperatures will fall from highs in the 90s with a few 100s (Wednesday through Saturday), down into the 70s & lower 80s (Sunday through Tuesday). Low temperatures will fall into the 50s & lower 60s, which will be quite refreshing.
Rain chances also increase over the weekend into early next week with this pattern change. Isolated to scattered showers and storms are expected, which is great news as some areas in the South & Southeast are beginning to slip into abnormally dry & drought conditions. Expect a widespread 0.75-1.25″ of rain with higher amounts possible. Widespread or organized severe weather is not expected.
A dangerous severe weather day is expected for parts of the Southern Plains with several tornadoes and hurricane-force winds possible this afternoon and evening. The Storm Prediction Center has highlighted an area within a moderate (level 4/5) and enhanced (level 3/5) severe risk from central and northern Oklahoma into southern Kansas east into southwestern Missouri, and northwestern Arkansas.
These risk areas include Tulsa, OK; Stillwater, OK; Norman, OK; Oklahoma City, OK; Wichita, KS; Joplin, MO; Fort Smith, AR; and Fayetteville, AR. This is where there is the greatest concern for the most widespread damaging winds, large hail, and tornadoes.
Surrounding the high, moderate, and enhanced severe risk area is a slight (level 2/5) and marginal (level 1/5) severe risk area which extends down into northern Texas and east into the Mid-South. Within all the severe risk areas, there is the possibility of damaging winds, large hail, and tornadoes.
Severe storms will fire up early this afternoon west of I-35 in Kansas and Oklahoma and eventually move east through the afternoon into the evening hours.
If you live in this area, please have a couple of reliable sources to receive weather information from, and have a plan in place in case a warning is issued for your area.
The next couple of days will be busy severe weather days from the Plains to the Mississippi Valley and Deep South. Severe storms will be capable of producing tornadoes, damaging winds, and large hail. The severe threat today exists from the Midwest and the Great Plains down into the Southern Plains and South with storms expected to fire up this afternoon and evening and move from west to east across the severe risk area. There is a moderate (level 4/5 – red) and enhanced (3/5 – orange) severe risk across the Midwest and parts of the Great Plains and an enhanced severe risk in northern and central Texas. A slight (2/5 – yellow) and marginal (1/5 – dark green) severe risk extends into the Mid-South and South.
All modes of severe weather are possible including tornadoes. The highest odds of tornadoes are across Iowa, eastern Nebraska, northeastern Missouri, and southern Minnesota. A few strong tornadoes are possible in this area.
The severe threat continues on Wednesday across the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley extending into the Mid-South and Deep South. There is an enhanced (3/5 – orange) severe risk from the Deep South and Lower Mississippi Valley to the Mid-Mississippi Valley extending into the Midwest. A slight (2/5 – yellow) and marginal (1/5 – dark green) severe risk extends into the Tennessee and Ohio Valleys and Great Lakes. Storms will be ongoing during the morning hours with new, stronger convection firing up late morning into the afternoon hours continuing into the evening. Storms fire up this afternoon and evening and move from west to east across the severe risk area.
All modes of severe weather are possible including tornadoes. The highest odds of tornadoes are across central and southern Illinois and Indiana extending south into Louisiana and Mississippi. A few strong tornadoes are possible in this area.
If you live in or near the severe risk areas, make sure you have reliable weather sources to receive weather warnings from and have a plan in place in case a warning is issued for your area.
Yesterday was a hyperactive severe weather day for the Southeast with numerous reports of severe weather and tornadoes. Numerous tornado reports occurred across Mississippi, Alabama, Georgia, and South Carolina.
Today is shaping up to be another high-impact severe weather day for some of the same areas. There is an enhanced (orange – level 3/5) severe risk for most of Alabama, Georgia, eastern & central Tennessee, western North Carolina, and southern South Carolina. This is where there is a great concern for numerous severe thunderstorms and some of those severe storms could produce tornadoes. Surrounding the enhanced severe risk area is a slight (yellow – level 2/5) and marginal (dark green – level 1/5) severe risk that encompasses most of the Southeast.
All severe risk areas have a chance for damaging winds, hail, and tornadoes. As aforementioned, the greatest tornado concern is within the enhanced severe risk areas with central & southern Georgia and southern South Carolina being the area with the highest probability of seeing tornadoes today. Severe storms are expected to fire up late this morning into the early afternoon hours and continue into the evening hours. Storms will move from west to east throughout the day.
If you live in or near the severe risk areas, please have a couple of reliable sources to receive weather warnings from, and have a plan in place in case a warning is issued for your area.
It’s been a hyper-active spring storm season and the trend continues this afternoon & evening with the potential for severe thunderstorms. Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are expected to develop in northern Texas this afternoon before accelerating east-southeast into eastern Texas, Louisiana, and Mississippi this evening into the overnight hours. The thunderstorm complex will travel along the I-20 corridor. This complex of thunderstorms will have the capability to produce damaging winds, isolated tornadoes, and hail.
In fact, the damaging wind threat looks elevated along the I-20 corridor from northern Texas to central Mississippi with some significant wind gusts potentially up to 80 mph in some cases. A good number of quick-hitting tornado warnings within this line of storms is also possible this evening and tonight. Because of the numerous severe storms expected within this line of storms, an enhanced (orange – level 3/5) severe risk exists for the aforementioned areas with a slight (yellow – level 2/5) and marginal (dark green – level 1/5) severe risk surrounding the enhanced severe risk area.
If you live within the severe risk area, please stay weather aware!
A dangerous high-impact severe weather day is expected today for much of the South with the possibility of a tornado & severe outbreak. All the ingredients have come together to support a hyperactive severe weather day throughout the day today into the evening and nighttime hours. All modes of severe weather are possible including tornadoes, damaging winds, and hail. The main concern is the possibility of significant damaging winds and tornadoes and all indicators suggest some tornadoes could become strong or violent this afternoon & evening along with some enhanced damaging winds. There’s the possibility of EF3 – EF5 tornadoes from the Tennessee Valley & Mid-South into the Deep South along with severe storms producing damaging winds in excess of 75 mph. Join the Firsthand Weather Supporter Group.
Because of the substantial severe threat, the Storm Prediction Center has highlighted the entire region as a severe risk and has issued a moderate (red – level 4/5) severe risk for eastern Louisiana, eastern Arkansas, much of Mississippi, and western & central Alabama, western Tennessee, and the Florida Panhandle. Surrounding the moderate severe risk is an enhanced (orange – level 3/5), slight (yellow – level 2/5), and marginal (dark green – level 1/5) severe risk for the duration of today.
All severe risk areas have a chance to see all modes of severe weather. The greatest concern for tornadoes and widespread damaging winds is within and near the moderate and enhanced severe risk areas.
If you live in or near any of these severe risk areas, please keep a very close eye on the forecast. You want to have a plan in place to act immediately in case a warning is issued for your area, and you want to have reliable weather sources to receive timely, accurate weather warnings from.
Firsthand Weather is monitoring the potential for a multi-day severe weather event from Tuesday through Thursday ranging from the Southern Plains to the Mid-Atlantic. There’s increased concern for a potential severe & tornado outbreak on Wednesday for the Deep South & Mid-South. All the ingredients are coming together to support numerous thunderstorms that could be discrete in nature producing several tornadoes throughout the day Wednesday into the evening hours. While there are still some questions and the event is a few days out, it appears strong, violent tornadoes are possible from eastern Louisiana, southeastern Arkansas, Mississippi & western Alabama
Because of the appreciable severe threat on Wednesday, the Storm Prediction Center has already outlined parts of the South within a slight (yellow – level 2/5) & enhanced (orange – level 3/5) severe risk. It’s likely additional areas will be included & an upgrade to at least a moderate (level 4/5) severe risk will be issued over the coming days.
If you live in or near the severe risk area, please go ahead and begin planning for potentially significant severe weather on Wednesday. Have a plan in place a warning is issued for your area, know what to do if a warning is issued, and have reliable weather sources to receive these warnings & forecast updates from. Stay tuned!