A glance ahead: cold for the east, warmth for the west; plus a major winter storm

The latest outlook from the Climate Prediction Center suggests a colder weather pattern will develop across the eastern half of the lower-48 next week as a trough establishes itself across the region while areas out west will favor warmer conditions with an upper-high building in. This outlook is from November 14 through November 18.

Model guidance also aligns with the latest thoughts from the Climate Prediction Center and also shows this weather pattern setting up that will deliver below-average temperatures to the east while the west sees above-average temperatures. The best chance for below-average temperatures will occur across the Southeast (dark blue) with the best chance for above-average temperatures in the Desert Southwest (brightest orange/red).

CPC temperature outlook

This pattern change will be accompanied by a storm system that will deliver an area of heavy snow and strong winds as the storm intensifies across parts of the Dakotas, Minnesota, Wisconsin, and other parts of the Great Lakes late this week continuing into the weekend. The snow will shift from west to east (from the Dakotas to the Great Lakes) from late Thursday/Friday through the weekend.

Simulated radar late week

The snow and wind will create near-blizzard conditions across eastern parts of the Dakotas, Minnesota, and Wisconsin. This area will also receive 1-2 feet of snow.

Snowfall accumulation forecast through this weekend

A look ahead: more cold air for eastern parts of the country while the west warms up

Looking ahead, guidance along with the Climate Prediction Center is suggesting a trough will deliver colder temperatures to the east (after a brief warm-up for much of next week) while areas out west (after a quick-hitting active pattern this weekend into the early week) will warm on up with a developing upper-level ridge. This pattern looks to establish itself late next week (November 12), continuing into the following week. Get more details on this weather pattern and if it could deliver snow!

Temperature departures from average next weekend per the GFS (Tropical Tidbits)

Pockets of sleet and snow are possible for the Southeast and Carolinas

An area of precipitation will develop and overspread parts of the Southeast tonight into Thursday morning. The precipitation will remain relatively light, with a few pockets of moderate intensity, and the majority of it should fall in the form of rain. However, temperatures at the surface and higher up in the atmosphere will be quite cold. Join the Firsthand Weather Supporter Group today for more information on the cold weather.

Because of this cold air mass, it is possible that a few sleet pellets will mix in with the rain across far northern Georgia, eastern Tennessee, western North Carolina, and northern parts of Upstate South Carolina. This sleet won’t be a major issue and accumulations are not expected. (SEE BELOW FOR DETAILS ON THE SNOW).

Fig. 1: Radar overnight tonight
Fig. 2: Radar early tomorrow morning (Thursday)

There will also be pockets of snow for the higher elevations. The rain/snow line should fall to around 3,000-3,500 feet overnight for western North Carolina and eastern Tennessee. Above 3,500 feet, up to 1 inch of snow will accumulate with 1-3 inches for snow above 5,000 feet. It also appears the rain/snow line may sneak into far northeastern Georgia and far northern Upstate South Carolina. The areas that could see that rain/snow mix in Georgia and South Carolina are northern Towns and Rabun Counties (GA), and far northern Oconee, Pickens, and Greenville Counties (SC). No accumulations are expected in GA and SC. Join the Firsthand Weather Supporter Group today.

Fig. 3: Snowfall accumulation forecast

Enjoy the taste of winter!

The coldest air of the season is moving south, and there’s a chance for snow

A cold, Canadian air mass is slowly working its way south across Southeastern parts of the country this evening. This cold air mass will deliver below-average temperatures to many areas from the Southern Plains to all areas east of the Mississippi River from mid-week through the end of the week and this upcoming weekend. Temperatures will be 10-20 degrees below average for afternoon highs and morning lows for some areas. This means widespread afternoon temperatures will range from the 40s and 50s for highs with some areas staying in the 30s. Morning lows will be even colder, in the 20s, 30s, and 40s.

Find out how cold the temperatures will get in your area and find out which areas will see snow. Yes, parts of the Southeast could see snow! Bundle up!

Fig. 1: Surface temperatures departures from average from tonight (Tuesday) through Saturday morning GIF / blue and purple colors depict below-average temperatures & orange and red colors depict above-average temperatures

Tornadoes can a do occur in November, the South is particularly favored

As we begin focusing on the first frost and freeze of the season, and even the first flakes for some areas, it is important to remember that severe weather can and does still occur in November–despite average temperatures quickly decreasing throughout the month. Fall and winter storm systems in a hyper-active jet stream that plunges south provide cold, Canadian air masses clashing with warm, Gulf air masses. This leads to big-time thunderstorms, producing tornadoes from the Southern Plains into the South and Southeast. The tornado threat does extend farther north, however, into the Ohio Valley, Mid-Atlantic, and Great Lakes. Even the western states see a few tornadoes as potent storms roll in off the Pacific. Join the Firsthand Weather Supporter Group today.

November tornadoes, courtesy of the Weather Channel and James Wilson

It is important to keep a close eye on the forecast for severe thunderstorms that may enter your forecast. Have a few reliable resources to receive warnings from and have a plan in place in case a warning is issued for your area.

A couple of chances for snow enter the forecast for parts of the Carolinas and Tennesee

The weather is changing as we continue to advance through fall and that’s even more evident with snow chances entering the forecast for parts of the Carolinas over the next week. The first chance for quick-hitting snow arrives tonight for the mountains of North Carolina. A strong upper-level low, with quite a bit of dynamic cooling, will allow for the snow levels to fall to around 5,000 feet overnight. So whatever moisture remains, will fall in the form of snow above 5,000 feet. It also appears up to 1 inch of accumulations is possible above 6,000 feet.

Another chance for snow looks possible next weekend. There are still a lot of questions, but another storm system will swing east, pulling in a strong cold front. This will allow temperatures to quickly fall and it appears there will still be enough moisture behind the cold front for a quick bout of snow across the mountains of eastern Tennesse and western North Carolina overnight Friday (November 5) into Saturday morning (November 6). This is over a week out so a lot of changes and fine-tuning are likely, but models are suggesting this is a real possibility. For more details on this possible snow event, click here.

European model Saturday morning (November 6)

Cold weather on the way to eastern parts of the county

A pattern change will deliver colder temperatures to areas east of the Rockies as we start the month of November. This pattern will favor a few cold fronts ushering in colder weather south and east. The latest outlook from the Climate Prediction Center indicates below-average temperatures are expected from November 2-6 for most areas east of the Rockies. The best chance for the below-average temperatures will exist across the Plains. Looking ahead to November 4-10, below-average temperatures are still expected for this region with the best chance for below-average temperatures shifting into the Mid-South and Southeast.

This pattern change has been talked about in our Supporter Group for the past couple of weeks. Join the Firsthand Supporter Group today for details on the cold fronts that will move into eastern parts of the country over the coming weeks!

Get ready for a true taste of fall! Join the Firsthand Supporter Group today!

NOAA releases its 2021-2022 Winter Outlook

NOAA released its 2021-2022 Winter Outlook today. The forecast aligns with what climatologically happens during La Nina years. Above-average temperatures are forecast for much of the country with the highest chance for above-average temperatures across the Gulf States and Carolinas. Below-average temperatures are forecast across the Pacific & Inland Northwest into the Northern Rockies. Alaska is also forecast to experience below-average temperatures. Join the Firsthand Weather Supporter Group today!

Precipitation is forecast to be below average across the Southwest, parts of the Southern Plains, and along the Gulf Coast into the Carolinas. Farther north, above-average precipitation is forecast from the Tennessee Valley into the Ohio Valley and Great Lakes. The Pacific & Inland Northwest into the Northern Rockies can expect above-average precipitation. Join the Firsthand Weather Supporter Group today!

It should be noted: this is NOAA’s Winter Outlook. This is not Firsthand Weather’s Winter Outlook. FHW’s official outlook drops very soon so stay tuned! Join the Firsthand Weather Supporter Group today!

“Superbomb” storm in northeast Pacific

An interesting weather event is forecast to evolve in the northeastern Pacific over the next 24-48 hours. The remnants of Tropical Storm Namtheun are in the process of converting into an extratropical storm system in the northern Pacific. This process will continue on Wednesday and Thursday and the system will rapidly deepen and intensify.

The system will intensify so much that the central pressure is forecast to drop to 950 mb or lower. This is a greater than 48 mb drop in barometric pressure in a short period of time. Because of such a quick drop in pressure during the intensifcation process, this system will become what is known as a superbomb cyclone late Wednesday. This occurs when a storm system observes a drop in pressure of at least 48 mb within a 24 hour period.

European 850 hPa Wind Speeds in knots (WeatherModels.com)
European 500hPa Geopotential Height (WeatherModels.com)

This storm is forecast to bring impacts to parts of British Columbia and Alaska late this week.

Frost Advisory issued for parts of the Southeast and Carolinas

A chilly night is in the forecast for the South, Southeast, Tennessee Valley, and Carolinas. Temperatures will fall into the 40s with quite a few areas dipping into the 30s. The 30s are most likely across Tennessee, northern Mississippi, northern and central Alabama, northern Georgia, Upstate South Carolina, and the mountains and western North Carolina. This is where temperatures will fall between 33 and 39 degrees tonight. Join the Firsthand Weather Supporter Group today!

Fig. 1: Monday morning temperatures

Taking a deeper dive into the temperatures tonight, here is a look at more localized temperatures across northern Georgia and the Carolinas tonight.

Fig. 2: Monday morning temperatures for north Georgia
Fig. 3: Monday morning temperatures for the Carolinas

Because of the temperatures falling into the 30s, Frost Advisories have been issued for northeastern Georgia, western Tennessee, and the mountains of North Carolina tonight and early Monday morning. Frost is also possible outside of the Frost Advisory for the aforementioned areas that will fall into the 30s. Make sure you protect sensitive vegetation. Here is a look at the Frost Advisory (areas shaded in blue). Join the Firsthand Weather Supporter Group today!

Frost Advisory

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