First Tropical Storm (Andrea) Of The Season To Develop East Of Florida?

Firsthand Weather is keeping a close eye on an area of convection east of the Bahamas this morning for tropical development over the next few days (see Fig. 1). This area of convection is expected to continue to expand and organize as it moves towards an area of lower environmental shear (see Fig. 2), and a low should develop by Monday.

Fig. 1: Current satellite imagery of convection

Fig. 2: Wind shear analysis (University of Wisconsin)

Once the low develops, it is possible further organization and intensification may occur, leading to this season’s first tropical depression or tropical storm. The National Hurricane Center (NHC) has given this area of convection a 30% chance of tropical development over the next 48 hours and a 40% chance of tropical development over the next 5 days (see Fig. 3).

Fig. 3: NHC’s discussion and development chances

Luckily, a ridge to the west/northwest will protect the East Coast from an impact (if development occurs), thus, allowing this system to move towards the northeast (see Fig. 4). If this area of convection obtains tropical characteristics, it would receive the first name of the 2019 Atlantic hurricane season: Andrea. It appears environmental shear will increase by mid-week, which will prevent “Andrea” from getting too strong.

Fig. 4: Ridge in place protecting the U.S. from impacts