Hermine is now a Post Tropical Cyclone,  and is now about 300 miles East of Ocean City, Maryland.  Hermine has slowed down dramatically from yesterday.  Hermine is beginning to make her Northward turn as she re-intensifies and approaches Hurricane Strength and is forecast to have sustained winds over Hurricane strength in the next 24 hours while out over the Gulf Stream.  Areas in the Mid-Atlantic and Southern New England should expect a long duration event with wind and rain coming in pulses over the next several days.  Heavy surf, dangerous rip currents, beach erosion, and Tropical Storm to Hurricane force wind gusts should be expected along with Coastal Flooding and Heavy Tropical Downpours.  Given the stress many trees are under due to the ongoing drought, they may be more vulnerable than they would typically be given these wind conditions.  Scattered Tree and power line damage is expected in both regions.

Hermine has changed little in structure since the last advisory, with most of the deep convection situated well northeast of the center and dry, subsiding air wrapping around the southern semicircle.  Earlier data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft showed that the central pressure had risen to 998 mb, and that 65-70 mph surface winds were present about 70 n mi northwest of the center.  Based on this, the initial intensity remains near 65 MPH.  Little change in strength is likely tonight, but the interaction with the upper-level trough is expected to provide more favorable conditions for strengthening while the system is over well above average sea surface temperatures of 28C or warmer starting Sunday, and the dynamical models all show some deepening during this period.  Based on this, the intensity forecast calls for Hermine to become a hurricane-force low and she could reform into a Sub Tropical Storm by Monday.  .

HERMINE WATCHES AND WARNINGS

The Tropical Storm Warning has been discontinued for the Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds, Chesapeake Bay and South of Duck, North Carolina.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Ocracoke Inlet North Carolina to west of Watch Hill Rhode Island, including Delaware Bay.

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for Watch Hill Rhode Island to Sagamore Beach Massachusetts including Block Island, Martha’s Vineyard, and Nantucket

Storm Surge:

The combination of a storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline.  Along the immediate coastline, the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves.  There is a danger of life-threatening inundation through tonight in the Hampton Roads area, and in the next 36 hours from Chincoteague, Virginia, to Sandy Hook, New Jersey.  Port Condition Whiskey has been issued for Southern New England by the Captain of the Port, indicating Gale force wind expectations and the potential for Port Closures in the coming days.  Storm Surge heights are expected to be at..

North Carolina sounds…1 to 3 feet
Hampton Roads area…2 to 4 feet
Chincoteague, VA to Sandy Hook, NJ…3 to 5 feet
Sandy Hook, NJ to Bridgeport, CT…2 to 4 feet

Hurricane Hunter aircraft are currently in Hermine and will be bringing the latest data, which we will have here, as soon as it’s available to us.

Robert Millette