The Weather Channel has released its snow forecast for the Southeast this weekend. Their forecast class for over a foot of snow in some areas. Keep in mind, this does not take into consideration the freezing rain accumulations that will be just south-southeast of the heavy snow axis in northeastern Georgia and the Carolinas. This is The Weather Channel’s snow forecast, Firsthand Weather’s updated forecast will come out later today.
A high-impact winter storm will slam millions from the Northern Plains to the Southeast late this week, through the weekend, and into early next week. A plethora of wintry impacts will be felt, from heavy snow to sleet, and heavy areas of freezing rain. A heavy swath of snow is expected from the Northern Plains into parts of the Midwest, Ohio Valley, Southern Appalachians, Mid-Atlantic, and Northeast. Lighter snow will extend into the Deep South. A significant ice event is possible for parts of the Southeast, including Georgia and the Carolinas. Watch the video forecast for this winter storm.
Updates will be needed over the coming days so keep checking back for updates!
Today’s 12Z models have rolled so let’s take a closer look at what the European & American models are showing for the South & Southeast this upcoming weekend. A potent storm system will unfold across this region late Saturday through Sunday. Not only is snow a possibility but potentially a more impactful ice event could unfold for parts of Georgia and the Carolinas. The European model is a touch farther south while the American model is farther north with the storm system. Join the Firsthand Weather Supporter Group!
It’s too early to dive into the specifics of just how much will fall and exactly where but we are getting an idea of a general area. Notice the European and American models are painting a picture of quite a bit of ice for northeastern Georgia and much of the Carolinas. This ice unfortunately is freezing rain and not predominately sleet based on the forecast soundings during this timeframe (overnight Saturday through Sunday). We don’t know the exact location yet or the exact amounts, you can see the differences in the models’ placement of the icing concerns, but a general idea is starting to come into fruition. If the storm system tracks farther south (European model) then the freezing rain will shift farther south and east toward central and event coastal parts of the Carolinas, whereas, if the storm system tracks farther north (American model) then the icing will shift farther north into central and upstate South Carolina and central and western North Carolina. All of northeastern Georgia and all of the Carolinas should begin preparing for icing. Some of the icing could be significant causing significant travel concerns and power outages that could (worst case scenario) last weeks. The heavy icing with gusty winds as the storm system ramps up is what could cause significant power outage concerns. Watch a video forecast on this storm system!
This icing concern is before the cold air wraps into the system that could produce some backend snow. The icing occurs ahead of the system due to cold air damming that will be in place as the system to the west pulls in warm, moist air up and over the cold dome of air over the region. The moisture feed will be strong, thus, the concern for the heavy precipitation leading to significant icing concerns. Regardless of this storm system tracking farther south (European model) or farther north (American model), the cold air damming event will take place so freezing rain is a concern for the region regardless of the storm track. It should be noted: there are still some questions with the temperature profile of the atmosphere, which could lead to significant precipitation type and accumulation changes over the coming days.
More details on the storm system:
As cold air wraps into the storm system, some snow is possible for parts of the South and Southeast. As mentioned above the differences in the storm track between the European and American models will have impacts on the snow accumulations. A farther south track (European model) will pull snow accumulations all the way down to I-20 across Mississippi, Alabama, Georgia, South Carolina, and all the way to I-95 in North Carolina. Whereas a farther north track of the storm system (American model) would shift the snow accumulations farther north toward the Tennessee border and for areas north of I-85 in Georgia and the Carolinas. Again, this will change over the coming days but all areas north of I-20 and west of I-95 should go ahead and begin keeping a close eye on the forecast for the possibility of snow and begin making preparations as we get closer to the event and more details become clearer.
This is a fluid forecast with some questions so significant changes are possible in this forecast over the coming days. Stay tuned!
All eyes are on the upcoming possible winter storm that could impact parts of the Northern Plains, South, Southeast, and East Coast late this week, weekend, and early next week. See more details on the winter storm.
Confidence is growing that there will be high-impact storm system tracking across the eastern half of the lower-48 during this timeframe. While confidence is growing in this system, there are still some big finer-detail questions that need to be ironed out that will allow for quite a bit of change in this forecast over the coming days. With that said, here is a first look at the preliminary snow & ice forecast with this storm system. Watch the latest video on this system in the Firsthand Weather Supporter Group.
Areas in and around the blue area have the best chance to see accumulating snowfall. Areas in and around the purple area have the best chance to see a wintry mix of freezing rain & sleet, followed by snow. Areas within in around the pink area have the best chance to see freezing rain. Keep in mind, this will be fine-tuned with more detail over the coming days, and not all areas within the shaded area will see wintry precipitation. This is a broad look at which areas *could* see the wintry impacts and the areas will continue to be narrowed down and fine-tuned as confidence increases. Once the confidence increases enough, eventual accumulations will be added.
Please keep checking back for updates over the coming days.
UPDATE: A look at which areas could see what!
Tracking a big storm system that will dive southeast out of Canada producing a swath of snow and wintry precipitation from the Northern Plains south into the Southeast from the late week into the weekend. This system is an upper-level clipper system that will race southeast. This system will see enhanced impacts due to a strong temperature gradient and a developing surface low pressure somewhere near the South so some significant weather impacts are expected. Join the Firsthand Weather Supporter Group today!
The main timeframe for impacts is Friday through Sunday. Impacts will begin Friday from the Northern Plains into the Midwest, move into the Ohio Valley on Saturday, and into the Appalachians, Mid-Atlantic, and parts of the South, Southeast, and Carolinas on Sunday. Within these areas, accumulations are likely with some significant accumulations possible.
It should be noted, there are still some questions with this system, especially as we move into the weekend and the impacts farther south. A low pressure system will develop over the weekend in the South. The models are struggling with the placement of this low so there are some areas of high uncertainty when it comes to which areas in southern parts of the country will see the heaviest precipitation and which areas will see snow. Regardless, snow and possibly a wintry mixture of freezing rain and sleet (the finer details will be ironed out over the coming days) is possible for parts of the South and Southeast regardless of the track of this low. Right now, it appears areas north of I-20 have the best shot to see snow this weekend in the South. This is where cold air and moisture should meet.
There is also uncertainty with the track of the upper-level clipper system that will dive southeast out of Canada, which will have impacts on which areas in the Northern Plains (and possibly the Midwest) will see the heaviest snow. A more south-southeast dive would favor the Northern Plains to see the highest accumulations whereas a more southeast jog would bring the Midwest into the action. Join the Firsthand Weather Supporter Group today!
The American model is farther north with the low while the European is farther south. The Canadian model is aligned fairly well with the American so will lean in this direction right now. It should be noted, the American and Canadian as well as the European all disagree on what the low pressure does early next week and this is important because this system could bring significant impacts to the East Coast. But that is all dependent upon the track of the low. The American model shows the low hugging the East Coast but the Canadian and European keep the low just off the coast. A lot will change over the coming days so keep checking back for updates.
The animated graphic below shows the American model forecast from Friday through Tuesday and depicts the progression of the system from the Northern Plains to the South and possibly the East Coast. Join the Firsthand Weather Supporter Group today!
It is too early to talk about snowfall amounts but we wanted to provide you with a snow accumulation map from the American model which shows which areas could see snow (keep in mind, some of this will be sleet and freezing rain which is likely augmenting the snow totals across parts of the South & Southeast). Notice much of the Northern Plains and parts of the South and Southeast see snow with the potential for snow along the East Coast depending on the track. Join the Firsthand Weather Supporter Group today!
Keep checking back for updates!
A cold front will move into the South sparking storms late this morning into the afternoon hours. A few severe storms are possible from southeastern Texas, east into western Georgia. There is marginal (dark green area) and a slight risk (yellow area) for this region. A marginal severe risk is a level 1 of 5 and a slight risk is a level 2 of 5.
The severe threat will shift from west to east throughout the day. A few storms will have to capability to produce damaging wind gusts, large hail, and isolated tornadoes. Stay weather alert!
Additional areas have been added to the Winter Weather Advisory and some areas have been upgraded to a Winter Storm Warning. The Winter Weather Advisory (purple) now extends into northern Georgia and into the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast. The Winter Storm Watch for parts of the Appalachians has now been upgraded to a Winter Storm Warning (pink) where half a foot of snow is possible.
Ahead of the next winter storm, Winter Weather Advisories have been issued for parts of the Mid-South, South, and Tennesse Valley. The Winter Weather Advisory is for Thursday and extends from eastern Arkansas, northern Mississippi, northern Alabama, and the western half of Tennessee. It’s possible this Winter Weather Advisory gets extended east to include the rest of Tennessee and possibly northern parts of Georgia. Join the Firsthand Weather Supporter Group!
Within the Winter Weather Advisory, a glaze of ice, in the form of freezing rain and possibly some sleet, followed by up to an inch or two of snow is a possibility. This will cause disruption to travel across the region. Higher snow totals are possible north of I-40 in Tennessee where 3 to 4 inches may fall. The wintry mixture will start early Thursday morning for areas near the Mississippi River in the Mid-South and spread east throughout Thursday. A freezing rain/sleet mixture will likely transition to wet snow during the event.
It should be noted: a Winter Storm Watch, Winter Storm Warning, and Winter Weather Advisory extend northeast into the higher elevations of far eastern Tennessee, western North Carolina, eastern Kentucky, southern West Virginia, and western Virginia.
If over half a foot of snow wasn’t enough for some of ya, more snow is on the way this week for parts of the South! My oh my, how quickly the weather patterns can change. The next chance for snow arrives Thursday. A weak surface area of low pressure will move out of Texas into the South and eventually the Southeast throughout the day on Thursday. This will be paired with an upper-level system diving southeast into the Mid-South and an associated cold front. A phasing of these systems over the South will allow for a shield of precipitation to develop across the Mid-South, Tennesee Valley, South, and Southeast. Join the Firsthand Weather Supporter Group.
The precipitation will start out as rain for many areas south of I-40 but will quickly mix with snow and turn over to snow for areas as far south as northern Mississippi, northern Alabama, northern Georgia, and possibly the northern fringe of Upstate South Carolina on Thursday. Accumulations are expected with this setup. The track of the weak surface low is important in determining just how far south accumulations occur. A farther south track extends snow accumulations farther south whereas a farther north track will nudge accumulations farther north. As it looks right now, light accumulations up to 1 inch are expected for the northern two most rows of Counties as far south as Mississippi, Alabama, and Georgia. Closer to 2 inches is possible near the Tennesse border for these states. In Georgia, above 3,000 feet, up to 4 inches is possible. Much of Tennessee Can expect 1-4 inches with higher amounts along and north of I-40. This is where isolated 5-6 inch amounts are possible. Chatanooga will likely see less than half an inch. The snow accumulations will extend into the Ohio Valley, the mountains of North Carolina, and into the Mid-Atlantic. Yes, D.C. will see another several inch of snow after such a long snow drought. It should be noted, central and northern Arkansas will see snow as well as possibly the northern fringe of Upstate South Carolina. It should also be noted, the track of the surface low should keep most of North Carolina snow-free outside of the mountains. Join the Firsthand Weather Supporter Group.
As always, this is a couple of days out so this forecast will need fine-tuning over the coming day.
A heavy band of snow is setting up across parts of the Southeast, Tennessee Valley, and the southern Appalachians tonight. This band of snow band will slowly move from west to east across the aforementioned areas over the next several hours. A several-hour period of snow rates of half an inch to three-quarters of an inch is possible for this area with rates, at times, in excess of an inch per hour. This could lead to locally heavy, significant snow accumulations for the higher elevations. Join the Firsthand Weather Supporter Group.
Recent hi-res guidance suggests some areas in this circled pink area above could see 3-5 inches of snow with locally higher amounts. This includes northern Alabama, southern and eastern Tennesee, and northwestern Georgia.
Firsthand Weather has been monitoring the snow potential for a week and first brought you the snow forecast for the South several days ago, and now the time has come–snow is on the way today for parts of the South! Local National Weather Service offices have issued winter weather alerts for a large area from the Mid-South into the Carolinas.
The Winter Weather Advisories are in effect from Louisiana and Arkansas through much of Tennessee, northern Mississippi, central and northern Alabama, and northern Georgia. The Winter Weather Advisory is the purple shaded area. There are Winter Storm Warnings for the higher terrain of eastern Tennessee, western North Carolina, extending into southeastern West Virginia, and western Virginia. The Winter Storm Warning is the pink shaded area. Winter Storm Watches extend into the Mid-Atlantic. The Winter Storm Watch is the blue shaded area.
The winter weather alerts for most areas go into effect late today and continue into early Monday with the winter weather alerts in the Carolinas and Mid-Atlantic continuing longer into Monday. Some snow accumulations are expected for the aforementioned areas, especially on elevated surfaces in the South as temperatures will be near freezing or just above in the South. Despite that, pockets of moderate snow should allow for snow. It appears most areas will see 1 inch of snow across northern Mississippi, northern and central Alabma, and northern Georgia. There will be pockets of 1-3 inches with some 3+ inch amounts above 2,000 feet, especially in northern Georgia where up to 6 inches could fall in the highest elevations. Farther north in Tennessee, a widespread 1-3 inches of snow looks possible with higher totals from 4-8 inches may fall which will also be the case across western North Carolina. The favored upslope regions could see a foot. The Mid-Atlantic, including D.C., could see 3-9 inches on Monday.