Friday, February 11, 2022 9:27 PM

Snow for the South & Southeast Saturday & Sunday?

Christopher Nunley

A strong cold front will blast into the South & Southeast on Saturday. Behind the cold front, significantly colder air will rush into the region. Once the cold front moves through, the parent mid/upper-level system will move overhead across the South & Southeast late-Saturday into early-Sunday. This upper-air system will be rigorous, which will create strong lift over the region; however, moisture will be minimal and the upper-air system will traverse across the area in a position that won’t optimize precipitation development. With that said, there’s the possibility enough lift & moisture will lead to a band of quick-hitting post-frontal precipitation to develop across parts of the South & Southeast late-Saturday into early-Sunday, especially if the upper-air system traverses across the region in a more favorable position.

Recent hi-res, short-range models are showing the possibility of a narrow band of snow developing across the region so we must keep a close eye on this evolving forecast over the coming hours.

Hi-res, short-range model future radar late-Saturday into Sunday

The areas that have the best chance to see wintry precipitation development will be across eastern Mississippi, Alabama, northern Georgia, eastern Tennessee, Upstate South Carolina, and North Carolina. It should be noted: there’s a higher probability for snow across North Carolina on Sunday as this system becomes in a more favorable position to enhance lift & moisture. Also, a narrow band of snow cannot be ruled out in western & central Tennessee, eastern Arkansas, and northern Mississippi earlier in the afternoon hours on Saturday (before the second area of snow potentially develops).

I want to point out, this is an outside chance but something to monitor. I’m not necessarily comfortable talking accumulations because of the uncertainty but I will include an accumulation map from the latest hi-res model. If this band of snow develops, a light coating cannot be ruled out on elevated surfaces but most areas won’t see accumulations or snow. There’s a better chance for light accumulations across the higher terrain of eastern Tennesee and western North Carolina.

Hi-res, short-range model snow accumulation forecast

Keep checking back for updates!