Hermine maintains strength over Gulf Stream

Hermine is now a Post Tropical Cyclone,  and is now about 300 miles East of Ocean City, Maryland.  Hermine has slowed down dramatically from yesterday.  Hermine is beginning to make her Northward turn as she re-intensifies and approaches Hurricane Strength and is forecast to have sustained winds over Hurricane strength in the next 24 hours while out over the Gulf Stream.  Areas in the Mid-Atlantic and Southern New England should expect a long duration event with wind and rain coming in pulses over the next several days.  Heavy surf, dangerous rip currents, beach erosion, and Tropical Storm to Hurricane force wind gusts should be expected along with Coastal Flooding and Heavy Tropical Downpours.  Given the stress many trees are under due to the ongoing drought, they may be more vulnerable than they would typically be given these wind conditions.  Scattered Tree and power line damage is expected in both regions.

tropical storm wind

Hermine has changed little in structure since the last advisory, with most of the deep convection situated well northeast of the center and dry, subsiding air wrapping around the southern semicircle.  Earlier data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft showed that the central pressure had risen to 998 mb, and that 65-70 mph surface winds were present about 70 n mi northwest of the center.  Based on this, the initial intensity remains near 65 MPH.  Little change in strength is likely tonight, but the interaction with the upper-level trough is expected to provide more favorable conditions for strengthening while the system is over well above average sea surface temperatures of 28C or warmer starting Sunday, and the dynamical models all show some deepening during this period.  Based on this, the intensity forecast calls for Hermine to become a hurricane-force low and she could reform into a Sub Tropical Storm by Monday.  .

water temps

HERMINE WATCHES AND WARNINGS

The Tropical Storm Warning has been discontinued for the Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds, Chesapeake Bay and South of Duck, North Carolina.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Ocracoke Inlet North Carolina to west of Watch Hill Rhode Island, including Delaware Bay.

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for Watch Hill Rhode Island to Sagamore Beach Massachusetts including Block Island, Martha’s Vineyard, and Nantucket

Hermine

Storm Surge:

The combination of a storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline.  Along the immediate coastline, the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves.  There is a danger of life-threatening inundation through tonight in the Hampton Roads area, and in the next 36 hours from Chincoteague, Virginia, to Sandy Hook, New Jersey.  Port Condition Whiskey has been issued for Southern New England by the Captain of the Port, indicating Gale force wind expectations and the potential for Port Closures in the coming days.  Storm Surge heights are expected to be at..

North Carolina sounds…1 to 3 feet
Hampton Roads area…2 to 4 feet
Chincoteague, VA to Sandy Hook, NJ…3 to 5 feet
Sandy Hook, NJ to Bridgeport, CT…2 to 4 feet

 

 

storm surge 1

Hurricane Hunter aircraft are currently in Hermine and will be bringing the latest data, which we will have here, as soon as it’s available to us.

 

 

hurricane hunter

 

Robert Millette

Severe Weather 101: Floods

Flooding is the overflow of water onto land that is normally dry. Floods can happen during heavy rains, when ocean waves come on shore, when snow melts too fast, or when dams or levees break. Flooding may happen with only a few inches of water, or it may cover a house to the rooftop. They can occur quickly or over a long period and may last days, weeks, or longer. Floods are the most common and widespread of all weather-related natural disasters. Flooding occurs in every U.S. state and territory, and is a threat experienced anywhere in the world that receives rain. If your home has been affected by floods it might be a good idea to consider consulting Water Damage Austin US (https://water-damage-austin.us/restoration-companies/) to start restoring your home.

flood 2

Flash floods are the most dangerous kind of floods, because they combine the destructive power of a flood with incredible speed and unpredictability. Flash floods occur when excessive water fills normally dry creeks or river beds along with currently flowing creeks and rivers, causing rapid rises of water in a short amount of time. They can happen with little or no warning. These flash floods can cause significant damage to houses. If your home ever experiences flash flooding, it’s important to try and find a company that can remove this water from your home before it begins to cause structural damage. By searching the internet for emergency water damage restoration near me, homeowners will be able to find a restoration company that can help them to get their house back to normal. It’s so important to keep an eye on your home throughout these flash floods, the water can cause significant damage.

In 1993, many levees failed along the Mississippi River, resulting in devastating flash floods. The city of New Orleans experienced massive devastating flooding days after Hurricane Katrina came onshore in 2005 due to the failure of levees designed to protect the city. Dam failures can send a sudden destructive wall of water downstream. In 1889 a dam break upstream from Johnstown, Pennsylvania, released a 30-40 foot wall of water that killed 2200 people within minutes.

Here in the U.S., floods kill more people each year than tornadoes, hurricanes or lightning. These tragic incidences happen too often and ironically, the people who are rescued from the vehicles reported the reason they drove into the water was to get to the safety of their home.

severe flooding

Where does the idea that a heavy vehicle will keep you safe come from? Many automobile commercials advertise the ability to drive through water. This may lead to the false sense of security at best and tragic consequences at worst.

Many believe that a 3000 lb vehicle will remain in contact with the ground and won’t float. But if you really think about that, a 97,000 ton aircraft carrier floats, why wouldn’t your car?

Vehicles can be swept away in as little as 2 feet of moving water. Trucks and SUV’s don’t fare much better with only an extra 6 to 12 inches of clearance. In moving water, all that needs to happen if for the vehicle to become buoyant enough for the force of the water to push it sideways. Once swept downstream, vehicles frequently flip over, leaving the driver only a few seconds to escape.

The solution is simple. Turn around, Don’t drown. Stay out of flooded roadways. Not only may the water be much deeper than it appears due to washed out roads, but as little as 6 inches of rapidly moving water is enough to sweep a person off their feet. You must be especially cautious at night, as flooded conditions can be hard to see.

The best thing to do is know when you’re at risk. Consider carefully when you camp or park alongside a river, especially during threatening conditions. Keep alert for the latest watches and warnings and pay attention to local weather conditions. Also plan a safe route. Find a hill near the river that you can go to should flash flood conditions occur.

Robert Millette

Tropical Storm Warnings into North Carolina

Tropical Storm Colin

 

Tropical Storm Warnings have indeed been extended into North Carolina as forecast here at Firsthand earlier today.

Tropical Storm

Tropical Storm Warnings are not in effect from Indian Pass to Englewood Florida on the Gulf Coast, and from Sebastian Inlet Florida to Oregon Inlet North Carolina.

Colin is now moving north northeast at 23 miles per hour and is 70 miles south southwest of Appalachicola Florida.  Colin should move on shore during the next few hours.  Several locations in Florida have already felt the effect of Colin’s outer bands as strong gusty tropical downpours moved on shore.   3-5 inches of rain is expected with some higher amounts where training occurs.  Coastal Flooding should be held to a minimum as Colin approaches during low Tide.  Locations on thee Atlantic Coast may not get so lucky however and will have an onshore flow during high tide on Tuesday.   We will keep track of Colin’s forward movement to help pinpoint the locations that could see the strongest winds during high tide.

Colin’s maximum sustained winds remains at 50 mph, but his minimum central pressure has begun to drop again and is now down to 1002 millibars.  A slight increase in winds is not out of the question before landfall occurs.

Tropical Storm

Remember,   tornadoes are a risk in this region

Colin4

Colin’s strongest winds and heaviest rains are displaced to the centers Southeast.  This is why the warnings expand so far in that direction.  Tropical Storm conditions will extend well to the south and west of the location of landfall.  Forecast models continue to show that Colin will continue to deepen and that wind speed will increase.  The coastal areas of the Carolinas should be especially on the watch for winds in excess of 60 miles per hour as Colin increases wind speeds off the Atlantic coast.

Robert Millette

Staff Meteorologist

Firsthand Weather

Major Winter Storm Update

Severe watches

For this major winter storm update, All winter weather warnings have been removed from Arkansas and Missouri with only a few remaining in Mississippi as the storm begins to pull east. Additional Warnings and Advisories have been added further Northeast up into Connecticut, Rhode Island and Massachusetts.   All other Warnings and advisories remain in effect for today as the primary low begins to transition to its secondary location.  This change will bring in the snowfall to the Eastern Carolinas bringing it almost to the coast line by Saturday morning.  As a reminder for all who have so far been disappointed by the situation they find themselves in, this storm is far from over and will be impacting your regions this evening and overnight tonight.  Further north you will see snow move in even later than that as the storm pulls to the Northeast.   The Southern New England area won’t see its first flakes until mid morning on Saturday.

radar

The Blizzard Watch for Philadelphia through the NYC metro areas has been upgraded to a Blizzard Warning.  The previous forecast for these areas holds with totals now expected around the higher ends of the limits as the storm appears to be moving slightly further north than the models had yesterday, but as I had been concerned about all along.   This is why I did not put out totals for Southern New England last night.  I was not confident that the models had the situation correctly profiled and by this morning my concern was completely proven correct.

rain and snow

To reiterate the Southern New England update I gave on Facebook,

BLIZZARD WARNING: for the Island of Martha’s Vineyard and Block Island from 1 PM Saturday until 7 AM Sunday. 8-12 inches of snow is expected to fall in this area and strong winds up to 55 mph,  will create blizzard conditions in this area. Coastal Flooding is expected to be an issue on these winds.

Winter Storm Warnings have been issued for the South Coast of Massachusetts, Rhode Island, and Connecticut including Cape Cod and Nantucket, beginning at 4 AM Saturday and ending 7 AM Sunday. 6-10 inches of snow is expected in this area. Snow will begin by mid-morning and intensify in the early afternoon and evening with snow fall rates around 1 inch per hour. Gusty winds of up to 50 mph will combine with high snowfall rates to bring near blizzard conditions at times before midnight with visibilities under half a mile.

A Winter Storm Warning has also been issued for Coastal Plymouth County and Interior Southern Rhode Island for 4-8 inches of snow. Snow will begin by mid-morning and taper off after midnight. Heavy snow and wind gusts up to 45 mph will bring visibilities down to under a mile during the late afternoon and evening on Saturday.

Winter Weather Advisories have been issued for the remainder of Plymouth and Bristol County including Brockton and for Northern Rhode Island for 3-6 inches of snow. Winds in this area will gust to 35 mph and reduce visibilities for a time.

These snowfall totals can be very hit or miss at this time. The cut off for snow from this storm is very sharp and a shift in the track of just 50 miles can dramatically alter the snowfall totals here. I will keep on this system for the remainder of the day and will be up all night tracking the very latest in details

Snow will leave the Northeast Sunday morning and early afternoon.

gap

 

Robert Millette

Meteorologist

Firsthand Weather