Severe Weather for Southeast, fires continue

Severe Weather will come with rain as drought conditions are still going strong despite the recent rains.  It cannot be emphasized enough that the fires that saw 3 lives end in Tennessee can still continue over the coming days.    Arson investigations have been opened in some of these fires as investigators begin to determine how the fires started but fire conditions will not take long to return to areas once the rains pass so please remain vigilant in your daily activities when fire is involved.  To all of our readers and their neighbors in these regions,  stay safe and plan ahead.   As seen in Gaitlinburg, these fires can come very quickly.  Prepare in advance and be ready to leave at a moments notice with multiple escape routes as options.

drought-monitor

Rain will continue in the southeast tonight into Wednesday from Extreme Eastern Texas over the South Florida along the gulf up north through Arkansas into the Ohio Valley and Great Lakes regions.  Additional precipitation is possible in New England with freezing rain advisories issued for the higher and more northern elevations.  Severe Weather, including Flash Floods and Tornadoes are possible tonight and will be addressed in this post.

A slowly weakening low pressure system across the northern plains and Upper Midwest will continue to bring potentially heavy snow to the Dakotas into this evening, before snow begins to gradually taper off overnight. Scattered snow and some rain showers will still be possible across the northern plains and Upper Midwest into Wednesday.

Farther east, widespread rain and even some thunderstorms are expected tonight and Wednesday from the lower Mississippi valley to the Northeast. Some areas of heavy rain are possible across portions of the lower Mississippi and Tennessee valleys through tonight as some significant rains have already fallen in the area.

nws_precip_se_1

The showers and thunderstorms will reach the East Coast on Wednesday, with thunderstorms possible from the Southeast to the southern Mid-Atlantic region. By late in the day, snow is expected to develop across northern Maine as the precipitation spreads into colder air already in place. Snow may be heavy
at times Wednesday night into Thursday.

noaad1

Strong low pressure seen here moving into Canada has dragged a cold front south draped down into the Carolinas.  This weakening front brought the region last nights rain.  A second cold front associated with this low is now moving through Illinois down into Texas.  This front, along with a developing warm front moving north from the gulf are what will set the stage for tonight’s Severe Weather risk

Severe Weather Returns

severe weather

Day 1 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
MODERATE 13,427 585,227 Tupelo, MS…Starkville, MS…Greenwood, MS…Grenada, MS…Oxford, MS…
ENHANCED 42,707 2,601,397 Baton Rouge, LA…Jackson, MS…Monroe, LA…Greenville, MS…Florence, AL…
SLIGHT 113,393 11,559,771 Nashville, TN…New Orleans, LA…Birmingham, AL…Mobile, AL…Huntsville, AL…
MARGINAL 49,543 6,567,755 Memphis, TN…Lexington-Fayette, KY…Montgomery, AL…Knoxville, TN…Beaumont, TX…

The storm prediction center has upgraded a small region in Northern Mississippi to a moderate risk while large portions of the south east remain in an enhanced or slight risk area.  The  risk for Tornadoes is large tonight and Tornado watches have already been issued for several counties.

severe-watch

Day 1 Tornado Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
SIG SEVERE 56,076 3,179,960 Baton Rouge, LA…Jackson, MS…Monroe, LA…Greenville, MS…Tupelo, MS…
15 % 13,456 588,577 Tupelo, MS…Starkville, MS…Greenwood, MS…Grenada, MS…Oxford, MS…
10 % 42,678 2,598,047 Baton Rouge, LA…Jackson, MS…Monroe, LA…Greenville, MS…Florence, AL…
5 % 70,735 7,846,202 Nashville, TN…New Orleans, LA…Birmingham, AL…Huntsville, AL…Metairie, LA…
2 % 43,513 4,379,865 Chattanooga, TN…Clarksville, TN…Beaumont, TX…Gulfport, MS…Lake Charles, LA…

The risk for significant tornadoes exists from Baton Rouge and Monroe Louisiana north towards Florence Alabama and just south of Nashville Tennessee, however, tornadoes can be expected from Beaumont Texas right up into Central Kentucky.

Current Tornado Watches

tor-watch-1 tor-watch-2

These watches extend from near Alexandria Louisiana to almost Jackson Tennessee and include Monroe Louisiana and Jackson and Tupelo Mississippi.  Memphis Tennessee remains just north east of the watch area but Tornadoes can occur outside the watch boxes so vigilance must be maintained.

The latest radar imagery show several strong and locally severe storms ongoing across the Lower Mississippi Valley area.  Advection will continue to occur across the Central Gulf Coast States and move into the Tennessee Valley as an upper level system approaches.  The Severe Weather and Tornado risk will spread northward with time.

firsthand Weather expects that Tornado Watches will continue to be expanded northeastward into further into Tennessee as scattered supercells in Mississippi move in that direction this evening.  Northeast Alabama and Tennessee should begin to see the impacts of these storms this evening into the overnight.  The environment is becoming more favorable for rotating storms as the evening goes on, especially in Northeast Mississippi.  Large hail and damaging winds will also be a risk tonight.

 

 

Robert Millette

Firsthand Weather

 

 

California’s Water Issues Solved?

There has been much talk over the past several years about the severe drought conditions across California. There was a glimmer of hope due to the strong El Nino during the winter, but the pattern failed to deliver beneficial rainfall to California.
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Current California Drought Monitor (Maroon:Exceptional, Red:Extreme, Orange:Severe): Courtesy of the United States Drought Monitor

However, there’s a new glimmer of hope as of this week. Stanford University announced the aquifers below the surface of California have substantially more freshwater than previously believed. This report shows as much as three times more freshwater is located in these deep aquifers–equivalent to 2,700 cubic kilometers of groundwater.

This is great news because there has been much worry about the growing drought conditions, paired with the large and increasing population of the State, as well as the massive agriculture production of the State. There are some concerns, however, about the findings from Standford.

The quality of the water is questioned, and the water is at a very deep depth. These aquifers are between 1000 to 3000 feet underground. This makes the extraction of the water very pricey. One other concern is the sinking of the ground that could occur due to the extraction of the groundwater; sinkholes could also develop in the vicinity above the aquifer. Even with these questions, this is ‘cool’ news during a hot Summer!

Forecast and Severe Outlook: Wednesday, May 11th

Additional severe weather is in the forecast as the last several days have brought 67 tornadoes from Colorado to Kentucky.  Strong low pressure moving into Canada will continue to move a strong warm front North ahead of a weaker cold front.   This clash of frontal boundaries is responsible for the weather the Plains and river valleys have been dealing with.

The current Surface Analysis

Surface map us

Today’s National Forecast

Weather Forecast map

The main weather feature across the nation will be a strong low pressure system over the north-central U.S. that will have a trailing cold front extending southward to Texas and the Desert Southwest. An occluded surface low over North Dakota will slowly lift northeastward to southern Canada, with rainy weather over eastern Montana and western North Dakota for the first half of Wednesday. Farther to the south, another surface low along the trailing cold front will also produce widespread showers and thunderstorms extending from Texas to the Ohio Valley. Some of these storms could be severe at times, and also produce localized flash flooding.

Temperatures are expected to be below normal across much of the Intermountain West with an upper level trough in place, and also for the Northeast U.S. which will be under the influence of a Canadian surface high. It will continue to be warm and humid south of a stationary frontal boundary, which will extend from the Ohio Valley eastward to the Mid-Atlantic coast. Highs in the 80s to near 90 along with noticeable humidity will be commonplace across the Deep South and the Southeast states.

West of the Rocky Mountains, a quiet weather pattern should prevail through the end of the week with no Pacific storm systems imminent. Inland temperatures should slowly return closer to average after the recent cool weather.

Current Severe Weather Outlook

Fire Weather Update

Fire Weather

No critical Fire areas to report.

Severe Weather Analysis

Summary

Scattered severe storms are forecast from parts of North Texas into Oklahoma and the Missouri and Mississippi River Valleys. Large hail and damaging winds will be the main concern by late in the day but a brief tornado or 2 are possible for this region.  For the Ohio Valley into the Mid-Atlantic, isolated severe hail or wind is possible during the day.

Severe Outlook

Day 1 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
ENHANCED 47,289 2,762,058 Norman, OK…Wichita Falls, TX…Lawton, OK…Broken Arrow, OK…Muskogee, OK…
SLIGHT 218,024 19,885,612 Dallas, TX…Fort Worth, TX…Oklahoma City, OK…Kansas City, MO…Tulsa, OK…
MARGINAL 378,142 52,006,921 Chicago, IL…Indianapolis, IN…Columbus, OH…Charlotte, NC…Milwaukee, WI…

Analysis

Low pressure will move across Iowa during the day today and bring a warm front across Missouri into Central Illinois and across the remainder of the Ohio Valley. A very moist air mass exists behind this front supporting scattered storms during the day from Iowa into the Ohio Valley.  Warm advection will allow for development of storms across Virginia and North Carolina under the influence of the disturbance currently causing thunderstorms in Kentucky.

Moderate to strong mid-level flow will spread into the Oklahoma and Far Northern Texas area as a weak cold front extends from Missouri down into Northwestern Texas by late this afternoon. A very warm and moist air mass is already in place though current storms in the area will play a pivotal role in destabilization during the day.  Strong instability will lead to intense clusters of thunderstorms with the primary threats of wind and large hail across the enhanced risk area.  A couple of tornadoes cannot be ruled out for this region.

Substantial moisture and instability is currently developing over Eastern Kansas and Western Missouri causing cluster of thunderstorms to form during the overnight hours. This activity is expected to continue during the morning hours with a threat of large hail.  Further development of stronger storms during the early afternoon will present a risk of damaging winds as a mesoscale convective system develops.

Dewpoints in the 60s across Iowa are forecast to result in a small corridor of supercell activity. Some heating is expected during the day as shear profiles are locally enhanced by the presence of the low pressure system.  Hail will be the primary threat with these storms but there is a risk of tornadoes later in the afternoon.

This Week’s Flood Risk

Flood Risk

Yesterday’s Storm Reports

storm reports 2

Robert Millette

Staff Meteorologist

Firsthand Weather

Forecast and Severe Outlook: Monday, May 9th

Southerly winds ahead of an upper system moving out of the central Rockies into the Great Plains are forecast to draw warm, moist air from the Gulf of Mexico supporting widespread showers and thunderstorms across the lower and central Great Plains into the lower and mid Mississippi valley Monday into Monday night. Some of these storms may be strong to severe, particularly from northeast Texas, southeast Oklahoma into Arkansas and northwest Louisiana, where the air mass is expected to become highly unstable as well.

The current Surface Analysis

Surface map us

Today’s National Forecast

Weather Forecast map

Moisture spreading further to the north is likely to focus along a slow moving frontal band supporting widespread moderate to locally heavy rainfall accumulations across portions of the lower Missouri and mid Mississippi valleys.

On Tuesday into early Wednesday, the previously noted upper system is forecast to weaken as it continues to track to the east. Organized showers and thunderstorms are expected to focus along the frontal boundary that will continue to extend from the mid Mississippi into the Ohio valley and Mid-Atlantic states.

Back to the west, a well-defined cold front is forecast to drop through the western U.S. this period, with below-average temperatures spreading south and east from the northern Rockies and High Plains. Moderate to heavy precipitation is likely to develop west of an organizing area of low pressure over the northern High Plains. Heavy rain accumulations are expected to center over eastern Montana, with heavy mountain snows over the ranges of southwestern Montana and northwestern Wyoming.

Current Severe Weather Outlook

Fire Weather Update

Fire Weather

Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
Critical 35,626 780,783 Las Cruces, NM…Roswell, NM…Hobbs, NM…Carlsbad, NM…Artesia, NM…

Critical Fire Weather area for portions of Eastern New Mexico and Far West Texas.

Severe Weather Analysis

Summary

Severe storms are forecast Monday into Monday night from parts of the Southern and Central Plains eastward into the Lower to Mid Missouri Valley, the Ozarks, and ArkLaTex region. Tornadoes and very large hail are possible across the region under the enhanced risk from Eastern Oklahoma and Northeastern Texas into Central Arkansas and Northern Louisiana.

Severe Outlook

Day 1 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
ENHANCED 67,531 4,070,056 Shreveport, LA…Little Rock, AR…Tyler, TX…Fort Smith, AR…Longview, TX…
SLIGHT 228,723 20,439,696 Dallas, TX…Oklahoma City, OK…Kansas City, MO…Omaha, NE…Tulsa, OK…
MARGINAL 203,583 16,544,671 Houston, TX…Memphis, TN…Fort Worth, TX…Arlington, TX…Pasadena, TX…

 

tornado risk

Day 1 Tornado Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
10 % 45,082 2,815,545 Shreveport, LA…Little Rock, AR…Tyler, TX…Fort Smith, AR…Longview, TX…
5 % 56,517 4,200,601 Tulsa, OK…Mesquite, TX…Broken Arrow, OK…Fayetteville, AR…Springdale, AR…
2 % 135,312 14,700,662 Dallas, TX…Fort Worth, TX…Oklahoma City, OK…Arlington, TX…Wichita, KS…

hail risk

Day 1 Hail Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
SIG SEVERE 73,480 8,648,809 Dallas, TX…Tulsa, OK…Plano, TX…Garland, TX…Shreveport, LA…
30 % 67,798 4,097,285 Shreveport, LA…Little Rock, AR…Tyler, TX…Fort Smith, AR…Longview, TX…
15 % 229,629 20,571,862 Dallas, TX…Oklahoma City, OK…Kansas City, MO…Omaha, NE…Tulsa, OK…
5 % 202,489 16,100,321 Houston, TX…Memphis, TN…Fort Worth, TX…Arlington, TX…Pasadena, TX…

Analysis

Strong heating over much of the region will combine with steep lapse rates aloft to result in strong instability from Eastern Texas into Eastern Oklahoma and Kansas as well as Western Arkansas. Southerly low-level flow will continue to bring moisture into the region as it did with yesterdays storms.  Dewpoints are forecast to reach the mid to upper 60s across the region.  Thunderstorms currently near the Red River will shift into Arkansas by this afternoon.  There is a risk of damaging winds and hail with these storms.

The outflow from the aforementioned storms should help to focus the areas of severe weather development later this afternoon when instability reaches its maximum. Wind Shear profiles will clearly favor the development of discrete supercells and support conditions for tornadoes.  The most likely area for tornadic development will be Eastern Oklahoma into West Central Arkansas southward across the ArkLaTex region.  Supercells may also develop farther south within the moist regions near Shreveport.  Convergence in this area will be weak but rapid moistening and weakening outflow boundaries may be enough to initiate discrete storms.

Further west, from Central Oklahoma into Central Kansas, severe storm chances are more conditional along the Dryline but some storms should develop in this area and large hail is the primary risk.

Further north along the weakening warm front, strong warm advection pushing north will result in destabilization from Missouri into Western Illinois. A few severe storms capable of large hail and possibly a tornado or 2 cannot be ruled out.

This Week’s Flood Risk

Flood Risk

Yesterday’s Storm Reports

storm reports 2

Robert Millette

Staff Meteorologist

Firsthand Weather

Forecast and Severe Outlook: Sunday, May 8th

After yesterday’s tornadoes in Colorado, Severe weather is forecast to continue on the Plains today.  A few tornadoes, very large hail and damaging winds will be the primary threats.

The current Surface Analysis

Surface map us

Today’s National Forecast

Weather Forecast map

A broad upper low currently centered over the Great Basin and southwestern U.S. is expected to slowly lift northeastward this period. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are forecast to continue today from the Sierra eastward to the central and southern Rockies, with precipitation expected to end by early Monday across California and much of the Great Basin as the aforementioned low reaches the central Great Plains.

Further to the east, southerly winds are expected to draw moist, unstable air from the Gulf of Mexico northward increasing the threat for strong to severe thunderstorms across portions of the southern and central Great Plains. On Monday, the threat is forecast to shift further east, extending into portions of the lower and mid Mississippi valley.

The greatest potential for heavy rainfall accumulations is expected center across the lower Missouri and mid Mississippi valleys. Moisture advecting from the south is forecast to focus along a slow moving frontal boundary, supporting heavy rains across the region.

Across the Northeast, a strong low moving across southeastern Canada is expected to usher in cooler temperatures and another chance for showers and thunderstorms early Sunday. Further to the south, scattered showers and thunderstorms are forecast to focus near a frontal boundary dropping into the region. Meanwhile, high pressure and dry conditions are likely to prevail across the Southeast.

Current Severe Weather Outlook

Fire Weather Update

Fire Weather

Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
Critical 50,750 896,717 Las Cruces, NM…Roswell, NM…Clovis, NM…Carlsbad, NM…Portales, NM…

A Critical Fire Weather area has been issued for portions of Eastern New Mexico and Far West Texas.

Severe Weather Analysis

Summary

Severe Outlook

Day 1 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
ENHANCED 51,455 1,370,679 Wichita, KS…Enid, OK…Salina, KS…Hutchinson, KS…Dodge City, KS…
SLIGHT 163,105 8,307,061 Oklahoma City, OK…Kansas City, MO…Omaha, NE…Tulsa, OK…Lincoln, NE…
MARGINAL 109,930 5,511,073 Fort Worth, TX…Arlington, TX…Des Moines, IA…Grand Prairie, TX…Denton, TX…

Severe thunderstorms are forecast across much of the Central and Southern Plains Sunday afternoon into evening. Very large hail and a few tornadoes are anticipated with the primary threat area from Central Kansas into Northwestern Oklahoma beginning in the late afternoon.

Tornado Risk

tornado risk

Day 1 Tornado Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
SIG SEVERE 38,306 907,149 Wichita, KS…Enid, OK…Hutchinson, KS…Dodge City, KS…Hays, KS…
10 % 37,880 807,808 Wichita, KS…Enid, OK…Hutchinson, KS…Dodge City, KS…Hays, KS…
5 % 57,931 1,772,470 Edmond, OK…Salina, KS…Manhattan, KS…Stillwater, OK…Kearney, NE…
2 % 35,823 1,715,349 Oklahoma City, OK…Lincoln, NE…Topeka, KS…Norman, OK…Lawton, OK…

Hail Risk

hail risk

Day 1 Hail Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
SIG SEVERE 50,943 1,364,854 Wichita, KS…Enid, OK…Salina, KS…Hutchinson, KS…Dodge City, KS…
30 % 51,776 1,381,121 Wichita, KS…Enid, OK…Salina, KS…Hutchinson, KS…Dodge City, KS…
15 % 163,586 8,317,521 Oklahoma City, OK…Kansas City, MO…Omaha, NE…Tulsa, OK…Lincoln, NE…
5 % 112,522 5,439,040 Fort Worth, TX…Arlington, TX…Killeen, TX…Denton, TX…Lewisville, TX…

Analysis

Low pressure will quickly deepen across Southwest Kansas today as strong moisture advection takes place across the Southern Plains. A well-developed Dryline should be in place by this afternoon from Southwest Kansas into Western Oklahoma and Northwest Texas with Dewpoints at the surface getting into the 60s.  Widely spaced thunderstorms are expected to develop along and east of the Dryline during the mid to late afternoon.

The model forecast soundings for the day are impressive with high levels of CAPE and shear. These conditions are very favorable to supercell development.  Tornadoes, very large hail and wind damage are likely with any cell that develops east of the Dryline.  The Storm Prediction Center has removed the moderate risk they issued yesterday for this region due to some uncertainty in the levels of moisture available to the storms, but a wider area of enhanced risk has been created overnight and I will not be surprised if an area of moderate risk is reintroduced as observations create more certainty for moisture levels.

Further south along the Dryline, from Northwest Texas down to the Rio Grande, moderate instability will form when daytime heating combines with a retreating Dryline and the arrival of moisture advection this afternoon. Widely spaced thunderstorms should form along the Dryline.  This activity will move eastward into an area of increasing low level flow.  Supercells with large hail and damaging wind will be likely.

This Week’s Flood Risk

Flood Risk

Yesterday’s Storm Reports

storm reports 2

Robert Millette

Staff Meteorologist

Firsthand Weather

Forecast and Severe Outlook: Friday, May 7th

As severe weather returns to the Plains, Fire Weather remains Critical in Eastern New Mexico after yesterday’s dry thunderstorms.  Today’s forecast and severe weather analysis follows below.

The current Surface Analysis

Surface map us

Today’s National Forecast

Weather Forecast map

An omega block pattern aloft at the beginning of the period is forecast to slowly break down over the weekend. Well defined upper level lows are evident over the Desert Southwest and near the Mid-Atlantic coast Saturday morning, and a weakening upper level ridge over the Plains.  By Sunday afternoon, the pattern should not be quite as amplified with the upper low lifting northward towards Canada and the ridge becoming more suppressed to the south.

In terms of sensible weather, temperatures are expected to begin moderating across the eastern U.S. after several days of unseasonably cool weather and persistent cloudy skies. The same also holds true across much of the Intermountain West region with below normal temperatures likely to continue through the weekend, along with numerous showers and high elevation snow.  The heaviest snow is expected for the highest mountains of Wyoming, Utah, and Colorado.

Across the south-central U.S., it will become increasingly warm and humid as moisture returns northward from the Gulf of Mexico ahead of the upper low near the Rockies. Strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible from Texas to Nebraska on Sunday, and general thunderstorm activity is possible along a frontal boundary that will extend eastward to the Southeast U.S. coast.

Current Severe Weather Outlook

Fire Weather Update

Fire Weather

Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
Critical 36,742 239,972 Roswell, NM…Clovis, NM…Carlsbad, NM…Portales, NM…Artesia, NM…

Critical Fire Weather area for portions of Eastern New Mexico and Far West Texas.

Severe Weather Analysis

Summary

Severe Thunderstorms are forecast to occur this afternoon and evening across the Central and Southern High Plains and the Ohio River Valley.

Severe Outlook

Day 1 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
SLIGHT 95,499 9,079,542 Denver, CO…Cincinnati, OH…Aurora, CO…Lexington-Fayette, KY…Louisville, KY…
MARGINAL 347,529 20,467,273 Indianapolis, IN…Columbus, OH…St. Louis, MO…Pittsburgh, PA…Lincoln, NE…

Analysis

A southeastward moving trough over the Great Lakes will impact the high amplitude pattern in place and allow the closed low over Southern California to finally begin to move east. Surface cyclogenesis will occur over Northeast Colorado and the adjacent Central Plains as a southward moving front extends across the Middle and Lower Missouri Valley into the Ohio River Valley.

In the High Plains, Moist Southeasterly upslope flow will establish itself this afternoon and evening along the Front Range in Northern Colorado and Southern Wyoming. Storms are expected to develop and steadily increase by mid-day over the higher terrain and then move into the foothills and then over the High Plains.  Severe hail is expected and a coup-le of Tornadoes could occur particularly over Northeastern Colorado.

Further east, a cold front associated with a deepening low near the Great Lakes will amplify over the Ohio Valley. Persistent strong west southwesterly winds will feed moisture just above the surface and raise surface Dewpoints into the 60’s by late afternoon.  With near surface based storms expected to form this afternoon and evening, severe hail and winds should be the primary hazards.

This Week’s Flood Risk

Flood Risk

Yesterday’s Storm Reports

storm reports 2

Robert Millette

Staff Meteorologist

Firsthand Weather

Forecast and Severe Outlook: Monday, May 2nd

Severe Weather is forecast in the Piedmont of the Carolina’s to the Mid-Atlantic as the system that brought a few tornadoes to Indiana yesterday moves east.  Meanwhile in Texas, showers and thunderstorms will continue to exacerbate the flooding problems across that region.

The current Surface Analysis

Surface map us

Today’s National Forecast

Weather Forecast map

A quasi-stationary front extending from the Mid-Atlantic and Central Appalachians southwestward to the Lower Mississippi Valley will slowly sag south and eastward to the Southern Mid-Atlantic to the Southeast and parts of the Eastern Gulf Coast by Tuesday evening. Showers and thunderstorms will develop along and ahead of the boundary from the Mid-Atlantic to the Southern Plains that will extend from the Northern Mid-Atlantic Coast to the Central Gulf Coast by Tuesday.  Rain will also develop over parts of the Great Lakes to the Northeast that will slowly move into Southeastern Canada by Tuesday afternoon.

Meanwhile, upper-level energy over Southern California will move slowly eastward to the Southern Plains by Tuesday. The energy will produce rain with embedded thunderstorms that will have a diurnal component to the areal coverage over parts of Central California to the Central and Southern Rockies that will end over the Region by Tuesday morning.  Another area of upper-level energy will move southward from the Northern Plains to the Southern Plains by Tuesday evening.  The energy will trigger rain over parts of the Northern Plains on Monday morning that will move southward to the Central High Plains by Tuesday morning.

Furthermore, a front moving southward out of Central Canada on Tuesday morning will move to parts of the Upper Great Lakes and Upper Mississippi Valley and Northern Plains by Tuesday evening.

Current Model Analysis

6 hour model

On Monday, one batch of rain moves out of the Northeast as another prepares to move in. Rain should stop for a time in New York and New England as the second batch comes through the Ohio Valley.  This system did produce a couple of Tornadoes on Sunday and brought several instances of severe weather across the Ohio Valley.  This risk will continue from Virginia down through the Gulf Coast along the cold front.

Showers and storms will continue to exacerbate the flooding issues down in Texas throughout the day though conditions will begin to dry out later in the forecast period.

High pressure will dominate the western half of the country but a couple of weak disturbances will be enough to generate some rain  and snow showers from the Pacific Coast into the 4 Corners region.

18 hour model

 

Monday afternoon, the rain shifts east and is now impacting the East coast from Florida to Maine within this broad circulation and along the cold front.  Areas near Dallas should begin to dry out as the front pulls east toward the coastline.  Rain and thunderstorms should be expected along the entire Gulf Coast and Eastern Seaboard at some point during the day.

High pressure will completely dominate the western half of the ountry Monday afternoon with only a few spot showers and a small batch of rain showers in the Dakotas associated with a weak low in Canada.

36 hour model

By early Tuesday, High pressure dominates the West with only the remnants of a cold front draped across the Country from Massachusetts to Coastal Louisiana. Low pressure in the Mid-Atlantic will continue to bring rain to nearly the entire East Coast.

Current Severe Weather Outlook

Fire Weather Update

Fire Weather

No critical fire weather expected

Severe Weather Analysis

Summary

A few severe storms are forecast today across the Appalachian Mountains and Piedmont of the Carolinas into the Mid-Atlantic region.

Severe Outlook

Day 1 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
SLIGHT 70,267 19,724,039 Baltimore, MD…Charlotte, NC…Washington, DC…Greensboro, NC…Durham, NC…
MARGINAL 155,209 27,778,806 Philadelphia, PA…New Orleans, LA…Virginia Beach, VA…Atlanta, GA…Raleigh, NC…

Analysis

Weak to moderate boundary layer destabilization is expected by this afternoon near and east of the lee surface trough from the Piedmont region of the Carolinas to the Mid-Atlantic. Moderate instability and strong southwesterly low and mid tropospheric winds are forecast to be sufficient for convective development.  These thunderstorms will be capable of producing damaging wind gusts and some hail.  Storm coverage east of the Appalachians is expected to become more widespread this afternoon with the approach of a upper level disturbance emerging from the west.

This Week’s Flood Risk

Flood Risk

Yesterday’s Storm Reports

storm reports 2

Robert Millette

Staff Meteorologist

Firsthand Weather

Forecast and Severe Outlook: Sunday, May 1st

Today’s forecast brings rain to the East Coast and another risk of severe weather to the Gulf Coast.  Heavy rain will bring several Texas waterways back into moderate to major flood stage for a short time with the risk for flooding now spreading into Louisiana.

The current Surface Analysis

Surface map us

 

Today’s National Forecast

Weather Forecast map

A front extending from the Lower Great Lakes to the Western Gulf Coast will become quasi-stationary with the boundary inching to New England Coast southwestward to the Lower Mississippi Valley by Monday evening. The system will develop showers and thunderstorms from the Ohio Valley to the Lower Mississippi Valley that will move to the Northern Mid-Atlantic Coast to the Lower Mississippi Valley and Western Gulf Coast by Monday evening.  Rain will develop over parts of the Central Plains eastward to the Great Lakes and parts of the Northeast as well as parts of the Northern Mid-Atlantic.  The rain will come to an end over the Central Plains and Middle Mississippi Valley by Monday morning and over the Great Lakes by Monday evening.  The rain will move into Northern New England by Sunday evening.

 

Current Model Analysis

6 hour model

On Sunday, thunderstorms will continue across the Appalachian region. Storms will not be as severe as they have been over the past several days but severe weather will continue to be a threat.  The low bringing this risk to the mountains is very broad, and continues to have rain and snow across Nebraska, Wyoming and Colorado this morning.

Dual disturbances in the Southeast continue to bring showers and some storms to the 4 corners region.

While rain won’t be a big factor in the Northeast early this morning, it will be by this afternoon and most of the East Coast, from Northern Florida up through Pennsylvania and New Jersey will begin to see rain by this morning.

18 hour model

Sunday afternoon, the rain shifts east and is now impacting the East coast from Florida to Maine within this broad circulation.

Rain and snow will begin to let up during the afternoon over the Rockies of Colorado, Wyoming and Nebraska.

A low over Arizona will begin to bring rain and snow to the 4 Corners region as a weak and moisture starved low moves into California with nothin to show for it.

36 hour model

By early Monday, High pressure dominates the West with only the remnants of a cold front draped across the Country from Massachusetts to Texas. A weakening low pressure system will set the stage for what looks to be a very wet week along the East coast.

 

Current Severe Weather Outlook

Fire Weather Update

Fire Weather

No Critical Fire Weather areas

Severe Weather Analysis

Summary

Scattered Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across Southern and Central Texas and the Central Gulf Coast Region as well as in the Ohio Valley and Central Appalachians.

Severe Outlook

Day 1 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
MARGINAL 309,811 43,672,165 Houston, TX…San Antonio, TX…Indianapolis, IN…Columbus, OH…Austin, TX…

Analysis

With moderate destabilization forecast from the Ohio Valley to the Central Appalachians, strengthening mid to upper level wind fields will allow for marginally conducive conditions for severe storms.  Deep layer sheer will be strong and supportive of supercells, but lower level wind shear is forecast to me weak.  This will minimize tornadic potential in this area but severe hail and strong surface gusts are forecast in the strongest storms.  These storms are expected to be widely scattered this afternoon and evening.

Along the Gulf Coast, Upper level flow is forecast to be moderately strong between the divergent jet streams. Instability will be high ahead of the advancing frontal boundary which could lead to severe weather development.  While some storms are forecast near Upper Texas and Louisiana Coastal areas, most storms will develop near the higher terrain of the Rio Grande River late this afternoon and evening.

This Week’s Flood Risk

Flood Risk

Yesterday’s Storm Reports

storm reports 2

Robert Millette

Staff Meteorologist

Firsthand Weather

 

Forecast and Severe Outlook: Saturday, April 30th

Additional severe weather is Forecast after several days of Tornado Watches and multiple tornadoes across multiple states.   Yesterday featured one Tornado that came pretty close to Matt in Norman Oklahoma but fortunately all is well and he continues on with school to get ready to come back to us in a couple of weeks after finals.

The current Surface Analysis

Surface map us

Today’s National Forecast

Weather Forecast map

A strong storm over the Central Plains and Middle Mississippi Valley will slowly move eastward to the Ohio Valley by Sunday evening. Showers and thunderstorms will develop along and ahead of the associated front from parts of the Lower and Middle Mississippi Valley and the Western Gulf Coast. This convection will move to the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley and Central and Southern Appalachians while extending southwestward to the Lower Mississippi Valley by Sunday morning.  The showers and thunderstorms will expand into parts of the Southern Mid-Atlantic and Southeast by Sunday evening.

Rain and higher elevation snow will develop over parts of the Central Rockies and Central High Plains through Sunday morning.

Rain will develop over parts of the Central High Plains eastward to parts of the Western Ohio Valley on Saturday morning that will expand into parts of the Upper Great Lakes and parts of the Northeast and Northern Mid-Atlantic by Sunday morning. Rain will continue over parts of the Central High Plains and Central Plains through Sunday afternoon.

Current Model Analysis

6 hour model

On Saturday, strong to severe thunderstorms are forecast to move through Coastal Texas up into Arkansas. The cold front causing this convection will slowly slide east during the day.  This system is also bringing rain back across Kansas and Nebraska with heavy snow falling in Colorado, Southeastern Wyoming and portions of Western Nebraska.

Over the remainder of the Rockies and the Pacific coastline, showers and snow showers abound as a weak low pressure system makes it south towards Arizona.

Another weak low moves away from the East Coast and could bring some rain showers to the Mid-Atlantic states and Southern New England.

18 hour model

Saturday afternoon, the cold front will move quickly east and shift the axis of severe weather away from the Southern Plains and into the Ohio and Mississippi River Valleys. Heavy rains should be expected in Southern South Dakota and Nebraska.  Snow will continue into the afternoon over the Rockies of Colorado, Wyoming and Nebraska.

A low over Arizona will begin to bring rain to Southern Nevada and Northern and Central Arizona as shower activity dies out during the afternoon over the remainder of the Pacific Coast.

The Northeast looks dry after the rain moves out this morning.

36 hour model

By early Sunday, Rain will be making its way through the Great Lakes and Mid-Atlantic states on its way to the Northeast. Heavy rain should fall in the Appalachians and help dent the drought in the region.  Further west, Mountain snows will continue as weak low pressure systems continue to pivot through the Rockies.

Current Severe Weather Outlook

Fire Weather Update

Fire Weather

No Critical Fire Weather areas

Severe Weather Analysis

Summary

Strong to Severe thunderstorms are forecast today into this evening. Storms will develop across the Lower Mississippi Valley, the Tennessee Valley, the Ozarks, and the Ohio Valley.

Severe Outlook

Day 1 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
SLIGHT 291,734 28,685,188 Houston, TX…Memphis, TN…Nashville, TN…New Orleans, LA…St. Louis, MO…
MARGINAL 214,264 32,249,913 Indianapolis, IN…Charlotte, NC…Atlanta, GA…Cincinnati, OH…Montgomery, AL…

Analysis

A closed upper level low is forecast to move slowly over the Central Plains and Middle to Lower Missouri Valley today. The cold front associated with this system moved east southeast across the Ozarks and ArkLaTex regions to the Upper Texas Coastal Plain bringing severe weather to the area.  We expect extensive early day convection along and ahead of this front near Coastal Texas this morning.

A relatively strong belt of deep layer southwesterly winds is forecast to overspread the area from the Ozarks to the Central Appalachians. The warm sector ahead of the cold front is seeing Dewpoints rise behind the warm front to the north.  Modest destabilization is expected due to day time heating even with the cloud cover from earlier convection.  Expect strong to severe thunderstorms to develop across Missouri and into Northeast Arkansas up into the Ohio Valley.  These storms will be in an area of strong veering wind profiles that could support supercell development.  These supercells would likely have severe hail and wind and possible develop a couple of tornadoes.

Further south, Severe Thunderstorm Watches were in effect overnight from Monroe Louisiana and near McAlester Oklahoma down to the Texas and Mexico border near Del Rio. Multiple squall lines moved through the area and continue on at this hour.  While activity is expected to weaken mid-morning, cold pool and outflow boundary focused reintensification is forecast, especially in the moist and unstable warm sector over parts of Louisiana Mississippi, Alabama and Tennessee.  A few tornadoes may be possible as these storms progress to the east through strong low level winds in the Lower Mississippi and Tennessee River Valleys.

This Week’s Flood Risk

Flood Risk

Yesterday’s Storm Reports

storm reports 2

Robert Millette

Staff Meteorologist

Firsthand Weather

 

Forecast and Severe Outlook: Wednesday April 27th

Severe Thunderstorm Watches from last night are now ending as thunderstorms have left damage from hail and wind in their wakes.  A few tornadoes spawned across the area from Texas up through Indiana but conditions were not a bad as they could have been with the severity of those storms.  Now for a look at today’s forecast.

The current Surface Analysis

Surface map us

Today’s National Forecast

Weather Forecast map

A strong storm over the Central Plains will move eastward to the Eastern Ohio Valley by Thursday evening. The system will produce showers and thunderstorms along and ahead of the associated boundary from parts of the Central and Southern Plains and the Middle and Lower Mississippi Valley that will move eastward to the Mid-Atlantic and Eastern Ohio Valley to the Southeast and parts of the Central Gulf Coast by Thursday.  Rain will also develop over parts of the Northern and Central Plains and the Northern High Plains through Thursday afternoon.  Rain will move into parts of the Upper Mississippi Valley into parts of the Upper Great Lakes overnight Wednesday and move into parts of the Great Lakes and Western Ohio Valley by Thursday evening.  Similarly, highest elevation snow and lower elevation rain will develop over parts of the Northern High Plains and Central Rockies through Thursday morning.

A second storm will move onshore over the West Coast and move southeastward to the Southern Rockies by Thursday evening. Rain will develop over the Pacific Northwest and Northern California Coast on Wednesday morning that will expand inland to parts of the Northern and Central Rockies by Wednesday evening with snow at some of the highest elevations.  The rain will settle over parts of Southern California and the Great Basin and the Central Rockies and Southwest by Thursday morning.  By Thursday evening rain will expand into parts of the Northern Intermountain Region to parts of the Northern High Plains and into parts of Southern California as well as parts of the Southern Rockies and Southern High Plains.  The rain and highest elevation snow will continue over the Great Basin and Southwest to the Central and Northern Rockies through  Thursday evening, too.

Current Model Analysis

6 hour model

On early Wednesday, a strengthening low pressure over the Central Plains will continue to bring heavy rains and severe weather to the region. Rain should be falling from South Central Texas straight up to North Dakota with snow falling in the mountains from Colorado to Montana as two weak low pressure systems help create additional instability over the Rockies.

In the Pacific Northwest, rain should be falling just off the coastline and showers should be expected to move on shore from time to time. This area of rain won’t hold together well and should mostly dissipate during the day.

In the eastern half of the US, rain is forecast to fall from St. Louis east along a frontal boundary straight to the coast of the DelMarVa. Showers and thunderstorms should be expected in Florida during the day and the snow that fell in Northern portions of New England should have moved well into Canada with only a few snow showers remaining in Northern Maine.

18 hour model

Wednesday afternoon, the cold front will move quickly east and shift the axis of severe weather away from the Southern Plains and into the Ohio and Mississippi River Valleys. Heavy rains should be expected in South Dakota and Northern Nebraska.

Snow and shower activity will be more focused over the Pacific Northwest and the Rockies but will diminish in overall coverage.

In the east, the heavier rains in the morning will begin to let up along the DelMarVa but will still continue out in Southern Illiniois and Western Kentucky.

36 hour model

By early Thursday, the next low pressure system should be making its way out of the Rockies by bringing heavy snow into Wyoming and Utah with rain on the Plains from Wyoming east into South Dakota and Nebraska.

For the Northeast and Great Lakes, the system that brought Severe Weather to the Plains on Tuesday will bring rain and snow. Many of the same areas that received snow on Tuesday will see it again on Thursday while areas that received rain will receive another good soaking rain.

 

Current Severe Weather Outlook

Fire Weather Update

Fire Weather

No Critical Fire Weather areas are forecast

Severe Weather Analysis

Summary

 

Strong to Severe Thunderstorms are forecast for the Middle and Lower Mississippi Valley, Western Tennessee Valley and Southeast Texas.

Severe Outlook

Day 1 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
SLIGHT 279,117 24,136,894 Houston, TX…Memphis, TN…St. Louis, MO…Baton Rouge, LA…Shreveport, LA…
MARGINAL 278,557 35,670,593 Indianapolis, IN…Nashville, TN…Kansas City, MO…New Orleans, LA…Virginia Beach, VA…

Analysis

An upper level low is drifting slowly eastward across the Central Plains. An elongated Mesoscale Convective System, spanning from the Kansas Missouri Border to the Edwards Plateau in Texas, is moving southeastward ahead of this system.  This MCS will slowly die out and the remnants will be over the Louisiana and Texas coastline by lunch time Wednesday.  Locally strong winds and hail are the primary threats with the MCS.

In the wake of this MCS, daytime heating will contribute to upward development and intensification over the Lower Mississippi Valley near the boundary layer. These storms should move Northeast and large scale forcing over the Mid-Mississippi Valley will help them grow.  As the warm front lifts north into Illinois, the earlier activity associated with Tuesday’s severe weather will help to keep the instability low.  While some hail and strong winds are possible, this severe risk remains low.

 

This Week’s Flood Risk

Flood Risk

Yesterday’s Storm Reports

storm reports 2

Robert Millette

Staff Meteorologist

Firsthand Weather