Hermine turns toward New England

Hermine remains a post-tropical cyclone with a cloud pattern more reminiscent of an extratropical low, but as the storm intensifies, moderate convection has been developing just north of the surface center in the northern semicircle during the past few hours within a region of increasing upper-level diffluence.  This diffluence is expected to increase as the wind shear weakens and if the convection continues to develop, Hermine may gain tropical or sub-tropical characteristics before the anticipated weakening begins to occur on Tuesday over cooler water.  Data from an earlier reconnaissance mission along with recent scatterometer data suggest that the intensity remains unchanged at 70 MPH with a minimum central pressure of 997 millibars.  Hermine is also beginning to be picked up by the radar in Taunton and Upton.   Rain bands have already begun to move over the Islands and Cape and those will move further inland with time.  Some places will see an inch or 2 of run from gusty tropical downpours from early this morning through the overnight hours.

storm surge 1

Hermine’s Location

The initial motion is a slow northward drift at about 3 MPH.  Hermine is about 300 Miles from the Eastern tip of Long Island and about 260 miles South of Nantucket.  A gradual turn toward the north-northwest and northwest is expected to occur this afternoon and tonight.

Hermine

 

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for…

The coast of Long Island from Fire Island Inlet to Port Jefferson Harbor and from New Haven to Sagamore Beach, including Block Island, Martha’s Vineyard, and Nantucket.

Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin over portions of the warning area by this afternoon.  Large waves, strong rip currents, and a small storm surge is expected as Hermine makes its closest pass to the coast.  Low lying coastal areas that are usually dry may flood but major coastal flooding is not expected.  Significant beach erosion is expected.

 

Robert Millette

Severe weather to strike again in Northeast

The severe weather simply refuses to quite down in the Northeast as we move into what we expect to be our third day of severe weather in 4 days.  The past week has seen New England experience 4 Tornadoes in New Hampshire and Maine, though all were thankfully weak and In mostly uninhabited regions.

Currently, a shortwave trough moving through Ontario is expected to move into Southern Quebec by Monday.  A mid-level disturbance is moving around the bottom of this shortwave and the disturbance will induce height falls at the 500 millibar level through Monday afternoon into Monday night, increasing the overall instability of the region.  A cold front associated with the trough will move through the Great Lakes region into New England with the trailing southern portion extending through the Ohio River Valley back into Arkansas and Oklahoma.

image

Severe Summary

Southwesterly flow ahead of the trough and cold front has been working to moisten the air across Pennsylvania and New York.  This moist air is spreading into the Hudson River Valley and will expand across much of Western and Southern New England through Monday afternoon.  Dew points are expected to climb well into the 60s at the surface with some locations approaching 70 degrees.  There will be an elevated mixed layer between 700 and 500 millibars that should spread east atop this moist air which should allow for cumulonimbus clouds to build to very high heights for this area, especially across Central and Eastern New York, Northeast Pennsylvania and Western areas of New England.

There may be some limiting factors to overall destabilization if some early period convection and cloudiness occurs to limit day time heating, but moderate to high mid to upper-level cape (convective available potential energy) and strong forcing from the cold front is expected to help overcome any deficiencies that may occur from areas of limited heating.  Strengthening deep layer shear is also going to be a factor and the increasing shear conditions over New York and Northern Pennsylvania as well as Western and Central New England should bring higher severe weather risks.

Strengthening westerly winds with height suggest organized storms will be possible, with some splitting of storms occurring.  Damaging winds will be the primary threat though some hail cannot be ruled out.

 

Robert Millette

Staff Meteorologist

Firsthand Weather

 

Severe weather threatens the Northeast

Severe

Severe weather threatens as a long lived linear mesoscale convective system continues eastward across Lower Michigan, strong heating ahead of the system should result in re-intensification of storms along the leading edge this afternoon.  This system should hold together to cross Lake Erie into Ohio and Pennsylvania before spreading into New England overnight.

By Friday, a belt of moderately strong mid-level flow will move into the northeast ahead of an advancing cold front.  This cold front should reach eastern New England by Friday evening into Friday night and extend westward into the southern Great Lakes region.

Severe weather summary

Scattered severe storms are forecast Friday into Friday night across Eastern New York and New England.  Isolated strong to severe storms are expected through parts of central and western New York, New Jersey, and Pennsylvania into the southern Great Lakes region.

Severe

Considerable uncertainty exists regarding the impact of the ongoing mesoscale convective system as it moves east.  This system is expected to weaken overnight but considerable cloudiness will exist with the systems remnants and those may prevent destabilization in certain areas ahead of the front.  The areas where these clouds are most prevalent are the areas that will see less destabilization.    Models do indicate low level moistening ahead of the cold front with strong southerly flow contributing to the amount of buoyancy that develops in the region.   Strong westerly flow aloft, which will increase with height, will support organized storms.  These may include supercell and a muticellular clusters primarily during the late afternoon and early evening hours.   Wind and hail appear to be the primary threats but a tornado like the one this past week in New Hampshire cannot be ruled out in the most intense storms.  Another article should be out Friday morning to bring you all the latest information.

 

Robert Millette

Staff Meteorologist

Firsthand Weather

Southern Plains Storms

As expected this time of the year, it has been hot and oppressive across the Southern Plains this week. Luckily, changes are in store beginning tomorrow (Friday). An approaching upper-level trough will push a cool front into northern Oklahoma late tonight into Friday. This cool front will provide adequate lift to generate scattered thunderstorm activity along and north of I-40 in Oklahoma, southern Kansas, and parts of the Texas Panhandle. Any thunderstorm that develops tomorrow has the chance to become severe. The main threats are damaging winds and large hail.
Slide02
SPC Thunderstorm Forecast (Friday)

Heavy rainfall is possible with the thunderstorm activity on Friday, too, and the rain chances will continue through Sunday. These rain chances will continue throughout the weekend due to a couple upper-level disturbances moving across the area. 1-2″ is possible north of I-40, and for parts of the Texas Panhandle; with isolated higher amounts.
Slide03
NAM Rainfall Forecast Through The Weekend

While most of southern Oklahoma and northern Texas wont see widespread rain chances. A few thunderstorms are possible for these areas; however, the more widespread activity will remain further north. Areas that do not see rainfall/cloud-cover can expect temperatures and humidity levels to remain uncomfortably high.

California’s Water Issues Solved?

There has been much talk over the past several years about the severe drought conditions across California. There was a glimmer of hope due to the strong El Nino during the winter, but the pattern failed to deliver beneficial rainfall to California.
Slide02
Current California Drought Monitor (Maroon:Exceptional, Red:Extreme, Orange:Severe): Courtesy of the United States Drought Monitor

However, there’s a new glimmer of hope as of this week. Stanford University announced the aquifers below the surface of California have substantially more freshwater than previously believed. This report shows as much as three times more freshwater is located in these deep aquifers–equivalent to 2,700 cubic kilometers of groundwater.

This is great news because there has been much worry about the growing drought conditions, paired with the large and increasing population of the State, as well as the massive agriculture production of the State. There are some concerns, however, about the findings from Standford.

The quality of the water is questioned, and the water is at a very deep depth. These aquifers are between 1000 to 3000 feet underground. This makes the extraction of the water very pricey. One other concern is the sinking of the ground that could occur due to the extraction of the groundwater; sinkholes could also develop in the vicinity above the aquifer. Even with these questions, this is ‘cool’ news during a hot Summer!

Rain Chances and Cool Front for Southern Plains

It has been hot across much of the Southern Plains over the past couple of weeks due to the persistent upper-level ridge. Rain and thunderstorms have been isolated at best, but that is about to change. Rain and thunderstorm chances will increase for parts of the Southern Plains this upcoming work week. Rain has already begun to increase across parts of western Texas and northern Oklahoma today. This is due to an upper-level low and cold front, respectively.

This cold front will move southward Monday night into Tuesday, generating an area of showers and thunderstorms that will propagate towards the Red River valley. Rain coverage will be about 40% and will continue throughout the day on Tuesday. Most areas will see less than 1″ of rainfall, but a few areas that get under the heavier storms could see a brief 1-3″.
Slide03
High Resolution NAM rainfall totals

The cold front is very weak, but the forcing associated with this boundary will not only generate storms, but cloud cover, too; which will knock highs down by about 5-10 degrees in some areas.
Slide02
High Resolution NAM temperatures Tuesday afternoon

Severe weather is not likely, but gusty winds and frequent lighting are possible.

Looking ahead towards the holiday weekend, it appears that the aforementioned upper-level ridge will shift towards the west-northwest. This is good news for the Southern Plains because this sets up a favorable pattern for afternoon and nocturnal thunderstorm complexes to impact the area. This is known as a northwesterly flow, and these patterns can produce very heavy rainfall and, at times, damaging wind events.
Slide05
Potential rainfall totals over the next seven days

Forecast and Severe Outlook: Wednesday, May 11th

Additional severe weather is in the forecast as the last several days have brought 67 tornadoes from Colorado to Kentucky.  Strong low pressure moving into Canada will continue to move a strong warm front North ahead of a weaker cold front.   This clash of frontal boundaries is responsible for the weather the Plains and river valleys have been dealing with.

The current Surface Analysis

Surface map us

Today’s National Forecast

Weather Forecast map

The main weather feature across the nation will be a strong low pressure system over the north-central U.S. that will have a trailing cold front extending southward to Texas and the Desert Southwest. An occluded surface low over North Dakota will slowly lift northeastward to southern Canada, with rainy weather over eastern Montana and western North Dakota for the first half of Wednesday. Farther to the south, another surface low along the trailing cold front will also produce widespread showers and thunderstorms extending from Texas to the Ohio Valley. Some of these storms could be severe at times, and also produce localized flash flooding.

Temperatures are expected to be below normal across much of the Intermountain West with an upper level trough in place, and also for the Northeast U.S. which will be under the influence of a Canadian surface high. It will continue to be warm and humid south of a stationary frontal boundary, which will extend from the Ohio Valley eastward to the Mid-Atlantic coast. Highs in the 80s to near 90 along with noticeable humidity will be commonplace across the Deep South and the Southeast states.

West of the Rocky Mountains, a quiet weather pattern should prevail through the end of the week with no Pacific storm systems imminent. Inland temperatures should slowly return closer to average after the recent cool weather.

Current Severe Weather Outlook

Fire Weather Update

Fire Weather

No critical Fire areas to report.

Severe Weather Analysis

Summary

Scattered severe storms are forecast from parts of North Texas into Oklahoma and the Missouri and Mississippi River Valleys. Large hail and damaging winds will be the main concern by late in the day but a brief tornado or 2 are possible for this region.  For the Ohio Valley into the Mid-Atlantic, isolated severe hail or wind is possible during the day.

Severe Outlook

Day 1 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
ENHANCED 47,289 2,762,058 Norman, OK…Wichita Falls, TX…Lawton, OK…Broken Arrow, OK…Muskogee, OK…
SLIGHT 218,024 19,885,612 Dallas, TX…Fort Worth, TX…Oklahoma City, OK…Kansas City, MO…Tulsa, OK…
MARGINAL 378,142 52,006,921 Chicago, IL…Indianapolis, IN…Columbus, OH…Charlotte, NC…Milwaukee, WI…

Analysis

Low pressure will move across Iowa during the day today and bring a warm front across Missouri into Central Illinois and across the remainder of the Ohio Valley. A very moist air mass exists behind this front supporting scattered storms during the day from Iowa into the Ohio Valley.  Warm advection will allow for development of storms across Virginia and North Carolina under the influence of the disturbance currently causing thunderstorms in Kentucky.

Moderate to strong mid-level flow will spread into the Oklahoma and Far Northern Texas area as a weak cold front extends from Missouri down into Northwestern Texas by late this afternoon. A very warm and moist air mass is already in place though current storms in the area will play a pivotal role in destabilization during the day.  Strong instability will lead to intense clusters of thunderstorms with the primary threats of wind and large hail across the enhanced risk area.  A couple of tornadoes cannot be ruled out for this region.

Substantial moisture and instability is currently developing over Eastern Kansas and Western Missouri causing cluster of thunderstorms to form during the overnight hours. This activity is expected to continue during the morning hours with a threat of large hail.  Further development of stronger storms during the early afternoon will present a risk of damaging winds as a mesoscale convective system develops.

Dewpoints in the 60s across Iowa are forecast to result in a small corridor of supercell activity. Some heating is expected during the day as shear profiles are locally enhanced by the presence of the low pressure system.  Hail will be the primary threat with these storms but there is a risk of tornadoes later in the afternoon.

This Week’s Flood Risk

Flood Risk

Yesterday’s Storm Reports

storm reports 2

Robert Millette

Staff Meteorologist

Firsthand Weather

Forecast and Severe Outlook: Monday, May 9th

Southerly winds ahead of an upper system moving out of the central Rockies into the Great Plains are forecast to draw warm, moist air from the Gulf of Mexico supporting widespread showers and thunderstorms across the lower and central Great Plains into the lower and mid Mississippi valley Monday into Monday night. Some of these storms may be strong to severe, particularly from northeast Texas, southeast Oklahoma into Arkansas and northwest Louisiana, where the air mass is expected to become highly unstable as well.

The current Surface Analysis

Surface map us

Today’s National Forecast

Weather Forecast map

Moisture spreading further to the north is likely to focus along a slow moving frontal band supporting widespread moderate to locally heavy rainfall accumulations across portions of the lower Missouri and mid Mississippi valleys.

On Tuesday into early Wednesday, the previously noted upper system is forecast to weaken as it continues to track to the east. Organized showers and thunderstorms are expected to focus along the frontal boundary that will continue to extend from the mid Mississippi into the Ohio valley and Mid-Atlantic states.

Back to the west, a well-defined cold front is forecast to drop through the western U.S. this period, with below-average temperatures spreading south and east from the northern Rockies and High Plains. Moderate to heavy precipitation is likely to develop west of an organizing area of low pressure over the northern High Plains. Heavy rain accumulations are expected to center over eastern Montana, with heavy mountain snows over the ranges of southwestern Montana and northwestern Wyoming.

Current Severe Weather Outlook

Fire Weather Update

Fire Weather

Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
Critical 35,626 780,783 Las Cruces, NM…Roswell, NM…Hobbs, NM…Carlsbad, NM…Artesia, NM…

Critical Fire Weather area for portions of Eastern New Mexico and Far West Texas.

Severe Weather Analysis

Summary

Severe storms are forecast Monday into Monday night from parts of the Southern and Central Plains eastward into the Lower to Mid Missouri Valley, the Ozarks, and ArkLaTex region. Tornadoes and very large hail are possible across the region under the enhanced risk from Eastern Oklahoma and Northeastern Texas into Central Arkansas and Northern Louisiana.

Severe Outlook

Day 1 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
ENHANCED 67,531 4,070,056 Shreveport, LA…Little Rock, AR…Tyler, TX…Fort Smith, AR…Longview, TX…
SLIGHT 228,723 20,439,696 Dallas, TX…Oklahoma City, OK…Kansas City, MO…Omaha, NE…Tulsa, OK…
MARGINAL 203,583 16,544,671 Houston, TX…Memphis, TN…Fort Worth, TX…Arlington, TX…Pasadena, TX…

 

tornado risk

Day 1 Tornado Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
10 % 45,082 2,815,545 Shreveport, LA…Little Rock, AR…Tyler, TX…Fort Smith, AR…Longview, TX…
5 % 56,517 4,200,601 Tulsa, OK…Mesquite, TX…Broken Arrow, OK…Fayetteville, AR…Springdale, AR…
2 % 135,312 14,700,662 Dallas, TX…Fort Worth, TX…Oklahoma City, OK…Arlington, TX…Wichita, KS…

hail risk

Day 1 Hail Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
SIG SEVERE 73,480 8,648,809 Dallas, TX…Tulsa, OK…Plano, TX…Garland, TX…Shreveport, LA…
30 % 67,798 4,097,285 Shreveport, LA…Little Rock, AR…Tyler, TX…Fort Smith, AR…Longview, TX…
15 % 229,629 20,571,862 Dallas, TX…Oklahoma City, OK…Kansas City, MO…Omaha, NE…Tulsa, OK…
5 % 202,489 16,100,321 Houston, TX…Memphis, TN…Fort Worth, TX…Arlington, TX…Pasadena, TX…

Analysis

Strong heating over much of the region will combine with steep lapse rates aloft to result in strong instability from Eastern Texas into Eastern Oklahoma and Kansas as well as Western Arkansas. Southerly low-level flow will continue to bring moisture into the region as it did with yesterdays storms.  Dewpoints are forecast to reach the mid to upper 60s across the region.  Thunderstorms currently near the Red River will shift into Arkansas by this afternoon.  There is a risk of damaging winds and hail with these storms.

The outflow from the aforementioned storms should help to focus the areas of severe weather development later this afternoon when instability reaches its maximum. Wind Shear profiles will clearly favor the development of discrete supercells and support conditions for tornadoes.  The most likely area for tornadic development will be Eastern Oklahoma into West Central Arkansas southward across the ArkLaTex region.  Supercells may also develop farther south within the moist regions near Shreveport.  Convergence in this area will be weak but rapid moistening and weakening outflow boundaries may be enough to initiate discrete storms.

Further west, from Central Oklahoma into Central Kansas, severe storm chances are more conditional along the Dryline but some storms should develop in this area and large hail is the primary risk.

Further north along the weakening warm front, strong warm advection pushing north will result in destabilization from Missouri into Western Illinois. A few severe storms capable of large hail and possibly a tornado or 2 cannot be ruled out.

This Week’s Flood Risk

Flood Risk

Yesterday’s Storm Reports

storm reports 2

Robert Millette

Staff Meteorologist

Firsthand Weather

Forecast and Severe Outlook: Friday, May 7th

As severe weather returns to the Plains, Fire Weather remains Critical in Eastern New Mexico after yesterday’s dry thunderstorms.  Today’s forecast and severe weather analysis follows below.

The current Surface Analysis

Surface map us

Today’s National Forecast

Weather Forecast map

An omega block pattern aloft at the beginning of the period is forecast to slowly break down over the weekend. Well defined upper level lows are evident over the Desert Southwest and near the Mid-Atlantic coast Saturday morning, and a weakening upper level ridge over the Plains.  By Sunday afternoon, the pattern should not be quite as amplified with the upper low lifting northward towards Canada and the ridge becoming more suppressed to the south.

In terms of sensible weather, temperatures are expected to begin moderating across the eastern U.S. after several days of unseasonably cool weather and persistent cloudy skies. The same also holds true across much of the Intermountain West region with below normal temperatures likely to continue through the weekend, along with numerous showers and high elevation snow.  The heaviest snow is expected for the highest mountains of Wyoming, Utah, and Colorado.

Across the south-central U.S., it will become increasingly warm and humid as moisture returns northward from the Gulf of Mexico ahead of the upper low near the Rockies. Strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible from Texas to Nebraska on Sunday, and general thunderstorm activity is possible along a frontal boundary that will extend eastward to the Southeast U.S. coast.

Current Severe Weather Outlook

Fire Weather Update

Fire Weather

Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
Critical 36,742 239,972 Roswell, NM…Clovis, NM…Carlsbad, NM…Portales, NM…Artesia, NM…

Critical Fire Weather area for portions of Eastern New Mexico and Far West Texas.

Severe Weather Analysis

Summary

Severe Thunderstorms are forecast to occur this afternoon and evening across the Central and Southern High Plains and the Ohio River Valley.

Severe Outlook

Day 1 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
SLIGHT 95,499 9,079,542 Denver, CO…Cincinnati, OH…Aurora, CO…Lexington-Fayette, KY…Louisville, KY…
MARGINAL 347,529 20,467,273 Indianapolis, IN…Columbus, OH…St. Louis, MO…Pittsburgh, PA…Lincoln, NE…

Analysis

A southeastward moving trough over the Great Lakes will impact the high amplitude pattern in place and allow the closed low over Southern California to finally begin to move east. Surface cyclogenesis will occur over Northeast Colorado and the adjacent Central Plains as a southward moving front extends across the Middle and Lower Missouri Valley into the Ohio River Valley.

In the High Plains, Moist Southeasterly upslope flow will establish itself this afternoon and evening along the Front Range in Northern Colorado and Southern Wyoming. Storms are expected to develop and steadily increase by mid-day over the higher terrain and then move into the foothills and then over the High Plains.  Severe hail is expected and a coup-le of Tornadoes could occur particularly over Northeastern Colorado.

Further east, a cold front associated with a deepening low near the Great Lakes will amplify over the Ohio Valley. Persistent strong west southwesterly winds will feed moisture just above the surface and raise surface Dewpoints into the 60’s by late afternoon.  With near surface based storms expected to form this afternoon and evening, severe hail and winds should be the primary hazards.

This Week’s Flood Risk

Flood Risk

Yesterday’s Storm Reports

storm reports 2

Robert Millette

Staff Meteorologist

Firsthand Weather

Forecast and Severe Outlook: Monday, May 2nd

Severe Weather is forecast in the Piedmont of the Carolina’s to the Mid-Atlantic as the system that brought a few tornadoes to Indiana yesterday moves east.  Meanwhile in Texas, showers and thunderstorms will continue to exacerbate the flooding problems across that region.

The current Surface Analysis

Surface map us

Today’s National Forecast

Weather Forecast map

A quasi-stationary front extending from the Mid-Atlantic and Central Appalachians southwestward to the Lower Mississippi Valley will slowly sag south and eastward to the Southern Mid-Atlantic to the Southeast and parts of the Eastern Gulf Coast by Tuesday evening. Showers and thunderstorms will develop along and ahead of the boundary from the Mid-Atlantic to the Southern Plains that will extend from the Northern Mid-Atlantic Coast to the Central Gulf Coast by Tuesday.  Rain will also develop over parts of the Great Lakes to the Northeast that will slowly move into Southeastern Canada by Tuesday afternoon.

Meanwhile, upper-level energy over Southern California will move slowly eastward to the Southern Plains by Tuesday. The energy will produce rain with embedded thunderstorms that will have a diurnal component to the areal coverage over parts of Central California to the Central and Southern Rockies that will end over the Region by Tuesday morning.  Another area of upper-level energy will move southward from the Northern Plains to the Southern Plains by Tuesday evening.  The energy will trigger rain over parts of the Northern Plains on Monday morning that will move southward to the Central High Plains by Tuesday morning.

Furthermore, a front moving southward out of Central Canada on Tuesday morning will move to parts of the Upper Great Lakes and Upper Mississippi Valley and Northern Plains by Tuesday evening.

Current Model Analysis

6 hour model

On Monday, one batch of rain moves out of the Northeast as another prepares to move in. Rain should stop for a time in New York and New England as the second batch comes through the Ohio Valley.  This system did produce a couple of Tornadoes on Sunday and brought several instances of severe weather across the Ohio Valley.  This risk will continue from Virginia down through the Gulf Coast along the cold front.

Showers and storms will continue to exacerbate the flooding issues down in Texas throughout the day though conditions will begin to dry out later in the forecast period.

High pressure will dominate the western half of the country but a couple of weak disturbances will be enough to generate some rain  and snow showers from the Pacific Coast into the 4 Corners region.

18 hour model

 

Monday afternoon, the rain shifts east and is now impacting the East coast from Florida to Maine within this broad circulation and along the cold front.  Areas near Dallas should begin to dry out as the front pulls east toward the coastline.  Rain and thunderstorms should be expected along the entire Gulf Coast and Eastern Seaboard at some point during the day.

High pressure will completely dominate the western half of the ountry Monday afternoon with only a few spot showers and a small batch of rain showers in the Dakotas associated with a weak low in Canada.

36 hour model

By early Tuesday, High pressure dominates the West with only the remnants of a cold front draped across the Country from Massachusetts to Coastal Louisiana. Low pressure in the Mid-Atlantic will continue to bring rain to nearly the entire East Coast.

Current Severe Weather Outlook

Fire Weather Update

Fire Weather

No critical fire weather expected

Severe Weather Analysis

Summary

A few severe storms are forecast today across the Appalachian Mountains and Piedmont of the Carolinas into the Mid-Atlantic region.

Severe Outlook

Day 1 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
SLIGHT 70,267 19,724,039 Baltimore, MD…Charlotte, NC…Washington, DC…Greensboro, NC…Durham, NC…
MARGINAL 155,209 27,778,806 Philadelphia, PA…New Orleans, LA…Virginia Beach, VA…Atlanta, GA…Raleigh, NC…

Analysis

Weak to moderate boundary layer destabilization is expected by this afternoon near and east of the lee surface trough from the Piedmont region of the Carolinas to the Mid-Atlantic. Moderate instability and strong southwesterly low and mid tropospheric winds are forecast to be sufficient for convective development.  These thunderstorms will be capable of producing damaging wind gusts and some hail.  Storm coverage east of the Appalachians is expected to become more widespread this afternoon with the approach of a upper level disturbance emerging from the west.

This Week’s Flood Risk

Flood Risk

Yesterday’s Storm Reports

storm reports 2

Robert Millette

Staff Meteorologist

Firsthand Weather