Major Winter Storm Update

Severe watches

For this major winter storm update, All winter weather warnings have been removed from Arkansas and Missouri with only a few remaining in Mississippi as the storm begins to pull east. Additional Warnings and Advisories have been added further Northeast up into Connecticut, Rhode Island and Massachusetts.   All other Warnings and advisories remain in effect for today as the primary low begins to transition to its secondary location.  This change will bring in the snowfall to the Eastern Carolinas bringing it almost to the coast line by Saturday morning.  As a reminder for all who have so far been disappointed by the situation they find themselves in, this storm is far from over and will be impacting your regions this evening and overnight tonight.  Further north you will see snow move in even later than that as the storm pulls to the Northeast.   The Southern New England area won’t see its first flakes until mid morning on Saturday.

radar

The Blizzard Watch for Philadelphia through the NYC metro areas has been upgraded to a Blizzard Warning.  The previous forecast for these areas holds with totals now expected around the higher ends of the limits as the storm appears to be moving slightly further north than the models had yesterday, but as I had been concerned about all along.   This is why I did not put out totals for Southern New England last night.  I was not confident that the models had the situation correctly profiled and by this morning my concern was completely proven correct.

rain and snow

To reiterate the Southern New England update I gave on Facebook,

BLIZZARD WARNING: for the Island of Martha’s Vineyard and Block Island from 1 PM Saturday until 7 AM Sunday. 8-12 inches of snow is expected to fall in this area and strong winds up to 55 mph,  will create blizzard conditions in this area. Coastal Flooding is expected to be an issue on these winds.

Winter Storm Warnings have been issued for the South Coast of Massachusetts, Rhode Island, and Connecticut including Cape Cod and Nantucket, beginning at 4 AM Saturday and ending 7 AM Sunday. 6-10 inches of snow is expected in this area. Snow will begin by mid-morning and intensify in the early afternoon and evening with snow fall rates around 1 inch per hour. Gusty winds of up to 50 mph will combine with high snowfall rates to bring near blizzard conditions at times before midnight with visibilities under half a mile.

A Winter Storm Warning has also been issued for Coastal Plymouth County and Interior Southern Rhode Island for 4-8 inches of snow. Snow will begin by mid-morning and taper off after midnight. Heavy snow and wind gusts up to 45 mph will bring visibilities down to under a mile during the late afternoon and evening on Saturday.

Winter Weather Advisories have been issued for the remainder of Plymouth and Bristol County including Brockton and for Northern Rhode Island for 3-6 inches of snow. Winds in this area will gust to 35 mph and reduce visibilities for a time.

These snowfall totals can be very hit or miss at this time. The cut off for snow from this storm is very sharp and a shift in the track of just 50 miles can dramatically alter the snowfall totals here. I will keep on this system for the remainder of the day and will be up all night tracking the very latest in details

Snow will leave the Northeast Sunday morning and early afternoon.

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Robert Millette

Meteorologist

Firsthand Weather

Major Winter Storm, Mid-Atlantic and Northeast

When we last left this subject, we had Tornadoes, snow, ice, and me pulling my hair out over the newest NAM model giving Boston a foot of snow.    Oh New England, what am I going to do with you?

rain and snow

On to Virginia and the Mid Atlantic!!

West Virginia and Virginia:

Moving north from my last post into Virginia, only the Southeast portions of the state will get straight rain, most areas will have cold air being brought down for what could be a historic blizzard for portions of the state.

Blizzard Warnings are in effect for Charles, St. Mary, Calvert, Prince William, Manasas, Stafford, Spotsylvania and King George Counties.  This warning is from 1 PM Friday to 6 AM Sunday.  Heavy snow will begin Friday afternoon and while it may mix with sleet for a time east if I-95, It will change back to all snow Saturday afternoon.  18 to 24 inches of snow are expected in this region with the lower amounts near the bay.  Winds will be gusting up to 55 mph in  this area and I would strongly advise that no one in this region head out Friday night.

Winter Storm Warnings are in effect from Southeast West Virginia along and north of highway 460 towards Lynchburg and on to Appomattox.  16 to 24 inches of snow will fall in this area with the highest amounts in the Blue Ridge region. Snow will be heaviest during the mid-morning through midafternoon hours and gusty winds will reduce visibilities down to 0 in the higher terrain.

Further South and East, Central Virginia and the Interior Northern Neck region will have snow picking up late Friday morning and getting heavy at times during the afternoon and evening.  Sleet and Freezing rain may mix in some as the original low pressure system moves the west of this area before dying out as the secondary pushes north.  This changeover and possible change to rain on Saturday will help keep totals down in the 7-15 inch range with the higher totals in the Piedmont regions of central Virginia to the West and North of Richmond.

Down in the Southeast corner of the state, interior regions near Emporia, Wakefield and Williamsburg will see even lesser amounts as sleet and rain mix in with the snow.  After the mix, this area will turn to rain and have seen 2-5 inches of snow.  Though a fresh coating to an inch may occur as the precipitation changes back to snow on the backside of the low.

Heading back to West Virginia,  Central and Northwest areas of the state and including Western portions of Maryland from Hagerstown West, are set to see 18-24 inches of snow between Friday afternoon and Saturday evening.  Snow will be at its heaviest overnight Friday with strong Northeast winds reducing visibilities and making some roads in the mountains impassable.

Maryland D.C. and Delaware

Jumping over to the Eastern shore of Maryland.  The Southern tip of the Eastern shore will see snow begin Early Friday afternoon, but for those in Dorchester County, the warm oceans will mix in sleet and freezing rain before changing over to all rain for a time but additional snow accumulations are expected by Saturday afternoon and into Saturday night, leaving the county with about 6-12 inches of snow.  Even lower amounts are expected towards Wicomico and Somerset counties, as well as Inland Sussex County in Maryland, and Cape May County and Coastal Ocean County in New Jersey, where 2 to 6 inches may fall and Winter Storm Watches are in effect.  Sleet and then Rain will be a major factor in this area as temperatures climb into the upper 30s late Friday and stay that way through Saturday afternoon.  Worcester County will see very little snow and ice and accumulations of less than 2 inches are expected before the changeover to rain in this area.

For the remainder of the Eastern Shore and Kent and New Castle Delaware, 10 to 16 inches of snow is possible from Friday night into Sunday morning.  Blizzard conditions are possible during the day on Saturday as heavy snow, high winds, and cold temperatures combine before tapering off.

For the remainder of Maryland and D.C, Blizzard Warnings are in effect from 3 PM Friday until 6 AM Sunday, expect starting at 6 PM near Baltimore.   The Eastern Suburbs of DC and Baltimore can expect 18 to 24 inches of snow as sleet mixes in along and east of 95, but the western suburbs are in the bullseye as 24 to 30 inches of snow will fall where sleet does not mix with the snow.  Winds will gust to 50 mph creating whiteout conditions overnight Friday.  Anyone living in this area will want to be off the roads by early to mid-Friday afternoon.

rain and snow

Pennsylvania, New Jersey and New York:

Much of the action with this system will take place in Southern and Eastern Pennsylvania.

In the West, Winter Weather Advisories are in effect for Washington, Westmoreland, Allegheny, and Indiana Counties including Pittsburgh for 4-6 inches of snow beginning on Friday afternoon and ending late Saturday afternoon.  Just east of there, Cambria, Blair, Huntington, Mifflin, Juniata and Schuylkill Counties are under Winter Storm Watches for 4-8 inches of snow during the same time period.  From Greene County over to York County and up to Dauphin and Lebanon Counties, Winter Storm Warnings are in effect for 6 to 12 inches of snow with as much as 24 inches along the Maryland border in places.

The bullseye region for here is from Philadelphia down to just inland of Atlantic City up through Trenton, Newark, New York City and out to Long Island.  Blizzard Watches are in effect for 8-16 inches of snow.  Less by the coastlines and more inland.  Blizzard conditions are possible during the day and evening on Saturday as heavy snow, winds as high as 40 mph, and cold temperatures combine before tapering off.

For Counties further inland, a line from the city of Reading, through Allentown and Morristown to West Milford and into Peekskill New York and the rest of the Lower Hudson Valley, Winter Storm Watches are in effect for 4-10 inches of snow beginning late on Friday or Early Saturday before tapering off Sunday morning.  This snow is expected to be very heavy and wet which reduces the chances of blowing and drifting snow.

New England:

Data on New England snowfall continues to change by the hour.  The gradient of snowfall in this location is massive and a difference of just 20 miles in the track of the storm can be the difference between no snow and half a foot.  Model outputs from earlier today gave Providence a foot of snow while giving Boston less than an inch and model data on whether or not this region will get hit is all over the place.

close shave

What I can tell you is this, Maine, Vermont and New Hampshire are simply too far north to get in on this system.  The real question, and I do not yet have a good answer for readers in these locations, is what will happen in Southern New England. Any snowfall that does occur here will not arrive until Saturday afternoon and would taper off late Sunday.  So I will be up bright and early to begin looking at the 6Z and 12 Z runs of the models.  Consensus or not this region will have a forecast by Friday.

 

Please be aware that strong winds and coastal flooding will be a risk from North Carolina all the way through New England on the astronomically high tide.

 

Thank you for sticking with us on this incredibly busy day.  We will see you bright and early Friday.

 

Robert Millette

Meteorologist

Firsthand Weather

Major Winter Storm Starts Across The South

snowstorm

A major winter storm is in the process of bringing a little bit of everything with a Tornado watch issued for through parts of Texas, Louisiana and Mississippi and winter weather warnings from Arkansas and Kansas all the way to New York City across 19 different states with snow or rain falling in 24 states. A potentially record breaking blizzard is expected to hit the mid-Atlantic and fall just short of hitting New England. Currently, locations under winter weather advisories are also under Severe Thunderstorm warnings and the tornado watch box for today is adjacent to counties that have winter weather advisories issued for later on today. It’s important for those who are in the worse affected areas to prepare themselves for what’s about to hit them. Do the basics like have a home safety kit, have enough food and water for at least 3 days, etc. You should also act fast after the storm has passed, checking your property for any damage it sustained. If you need to get roofing howard county md repairs after your roof was damaged in the storm then make sure you get it repaired quickly before it causes water damage. If you are a lover of dogs and enjoy taking your furry family member for walks regularly, we’d advise you to keep your dog dry as consistent wet fur for dogs can lead to illness, also it makes keeping home tidier and dry, easy.

warnings

Tornado Watches (some info is out of date now):

A Tornado Watch has been issued until 7 PM for

Angelina, Jefferson, Orange, Shelby, Hardin, Nacodoches, Sabine, Tyler, Jasper, Newton and San Augustine Counties in Texas.

Acadia, Beauregard, Cameron, Jefferson Davis, Rapides, Vermilion, Allen, Calcasieu, Evangeline, La Salle, Sabine, Vernon, Avoyelles, Caldwell, Grant, Watchitoches, St. Landry, and Winn Counties in Louisiana.

Strong to Severe Thunderstorms have been occurring in this region and will continue to occur this evening. Several Severe Thunderstorm and Tornado warnings have already been issued and this area will continue to bear watching for additional warnings this evening and even into the overnight hours as the system moves away.

A Tornado Watch has been issued until 10 PM for:

Ascension, Concordia, Iberia, Lafayette, Orleans, St. Bernard, St. James, St. Mary, Tensas, West Baton Rouge, Assumption, East Baton Rouge, Iberville, Lafourche, Plaquemines, St. Charles, St. John the Baptist, St. Tammany, West Feliciana, Catahoula, East Feliciana, Jefferson, Livingston, Pointe Coupee, St. Helena, St. Martin, Tangipahoa, and Washington Counties in Louisiana.

As well as Adams, Copiah, Franklin, Jefferson, Lamar, Lincoln, Neshona, Pike, Simpson, Warren, Amite, Covington, Hinds, Jefferson Davis, Lawrence, Madison, Newton, Rankin, Smith, Wilkinson, Claiborne, Forrest, Jasper, Jones, Leake, Marion, Pearl River, Scott, and Walthall Counties in Mississippi.

Strong to Severe Thunderstorms have been occurring in this region and will continue to occur this evening into the overnight hours. Several Severe Thunderstorm and Tornado warnings have already been issued and are currently active. This area will continue to bear watching for additional warnings this evening and even into the overnight hours as the system begins to move away.

Nebraska, Iowa, Kansas and Missouri:

Light to moderate snow showers are currently falling from an area near Lincoln and Omaha Nebraska over to Oskaloosa, Iowa and down through much of Missouri and Kansas east of Witchita.

Winter Weather Advisories have been issued for the following Counties in Kansas: Cherokee, Crawford, Bourbon, Allen, Wilson, Greenwood, Lyon, Chase, Marion, Coffey, Anderson, Linn, Miami, Franklin, Osage, Shawnee, Jackson, Atchison, Jefferson, Leavenworth, Wyandotte, Douglas and Johnson Counties.

And the following counties in Missouri: Platte, Clay, Jackson, Cass, Bates, Vernon, Barton, Jasper, Newton, McDonald, Barry Lawrence, Dade, Cedar, Saint Clair, Henry, Johnson, Benton, Morgan, Hickory, Camden, Polk, Greene, Christian, Stone, Taney, Ozark, Douglas, Webster, Wright, Dallas, Laclede, Miller, Maries, Pulaski, Phelps, Texas, Dent, Shannon, Howell and Oregon

No advisories are issued for Nebraska or Iowa.

The further North and West you are the earlier these advisories will end with the first advisories ending at 4 PM CST and the last advisories ending around midnight CST.

A period of light to moderate snow is possible but the showers and squalls in this region are quickly diminishing. Accumulations of an inch are possible where these showers hold together with maybe 3-4 inches in the extreme Southeast corner of the state. As warm air begins to move back in at the surface this afternoon, patchy freezing drizzle is possible as the system pulls away. This region missed out on the storm for the most part as it developed too far to the south and east but the system will make the evening commute hazardous in many areas in this region none the less.

Arkansas and Northern Louisiana:

A Winter Weather Advisory has been issued for the following Counties: Marion, Baxter, Fulton, Izard, Sharp, Randolph, Searcy, Stone Pope, Van Buren, Conway, Yell, Montgomery, Pike, Clark, Ouachita, Calhoun and Bradley.

The advisory is in effect from 6 PM until 9 AM Friday CST.

Some freezing rain and drizzle will impact this area through this evening and additional showers of freezing rain, sleet and snow are likely overnight into the early morning hours of Friday. A few hundreaths of an inch of ice accretion can be expected in the Advisory area with snow and sleet accumulations of up to an inch with locally higher amounts up to 2 inches possible.

A Winter Storm Warning has been issued for the following Counties in Arkansas: Sharpe, Lawrence, Randolph, Greene, Clay, Independence, Jackson, Craighead, Poinsett, Mississippi, Cleburn, Faulkner, White, Woodruff, Cross, Saint Francis, Crittenden, Perry, Garland, Saline, Pulaski, Lonoke, Prairie, Monroe, Lee Phillips, Hot Spring, Grant, Jefferson, Arkansas, Dallas, Cleveland, Lincoln, Desha, Drew, Ashley and Chicot

And the following Counties in Louisiana: Morehouse, West Carroll, East Carroll, Richland and Madison.

Winter Storm warnings are in effect starting around 6 PM in Northern Arkansas and lasting until 6 PM Friday in Southern Arkansas and Louisiana. A trace to a few hundredths of an inch of ice is expected to fall across this area with 2-5 inches of snow and locally higher amounts expected as the storm begins to move away. Snow will fall more heavily for a time in the Eastern Central to Southeastern sections of this watch area but more rain will fall the further south you go and will keep amounts slightly lower in Louisiana and extreme Southeast Arkansas but the east central portion of the state could see as much as a foot of snow as heavy snow moves in towards the end of the storm.

Map valid for Friday morning

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Per the map , you can see precipitation moving into the Southeastern states as well as Kentucky, and towards the Mid-Atlantic.

Mississippi, Alabama, Tennessee, Kentucky, Illinois, Indiana Ohio and West Virginia:

In Mississippi, North of Warren, Yazoo, Holmes, Attala, Winston and Noxubee, Winter Storm Warnings are in effect. More snow will fall in the western portion of the state where up to a foot of snow could fall as the cold air wraps around the back of the system. 3-6 inches will fall around Jackson with amounts dropping to 1-3 as you go toward the Alabama state line. For an interesting fun note, Warren County is currently under a Tornado Watch and then under the winter weather advisory for later on. Anyone for a tornadic thunder snow storm?

In Alabama, north of Pickens, Tuscaloosa, Jefferson, Shelby, Talladega, Clay and Cleburne Counties,

Winter Weather Advisories are in effect for an inch to 2 inches of snow. Rain will dominate the precipitation in this Alabama as the storm moves north and bring warm gulf air into the region but a late changeover to snow is possible for many areas as cold air wraps around the backside of the storm as it moves east. Accumulations are expected to be light but some sleet could fall during the transition as cold air at the surface moves in quicker than cold air aloft.

For Tennessee, every county in the state is under a Winter Weather Alert of some type. The middle of the state is under Winter Weather Advisories for 1-3 inches of snow. This area will also be impacted by the warm gulf air moving up into the region as the storm moves to the Northeast. After the initial low dissipates, the cold air coming in on the backside of the system will allow for a period of sleet and snow to occur and bring light accumulations to the area. In Western Tennessee, cold air will move in quicker as the storm stays south of Memphis and an area bounded by the state line towards Nashville will see amounts ranging from 4 inches upwards to a foot along the state line. Eastern portions of the state will see slightly higher amounts with 3-6 inches possible as precipitation begins as some snow and ice before changing to rain and then back to snow.

For Massac, Pope and Harden Counties in Illinois, Freezing rain is a major threat up to 2 tenths of an inch of freezing rain may fall with 3-6 inches of snow slated to fall.

The entire state of Kentucky is under winter weather warnings as freezing rain and snow are expected to accumulate through most of the state. Freezing rain accretion will be lower further east with a trace up to 2 tenths of an inch near Illinois. Nearly the entire state can expect at least 3 inches of snow with a swath from Louisville South expecting higher amounts throughout the entire state up towards 6 to 12 inches of snow. Eastern portions of the state as you approach the Appalachians will see 12-24 inches through the central part of the state.

In Indiana, Vandenburg, Warrick, Spencer, Dubois, Perry, Crawford, Orange, Washington, Harrison, Floyd, Clark, Scott, Jefferson, Switzerland, Ohio Counties are under Winter Weather Advisories for 1 to 4 inches of snow. These areas are on the northern fringe of the precipitation shield and will not see as much snow as areas to the south in Kentucky. Some counties to the north if these will see some wintry precipitation but only minor accumulations are expected.

For Ohio, Hamilton, Clermont, Clinton, Fayette, Pickaway, Fairfield, Perry, Muskingum, Guernsey, Belmont, Noble, and Monroe are under Winter Weather Advisories for 1-4 inches of snow. Similar to Indiana, these counties are on the fringe of the precipitation and will not see as much.

Brown, Adams, Highland, Ross, Pike, Scioto, Lawrence, Jackson, Gallia, Meigs, Vinton, Athens, Hocking, and Washington in Ohio are under Winter Storm Warnings for 4-8 inches of snow. This region will miss the really heavy stuff to the south.

Georgia, South Carolina, North Carolina, and Florida:

Florida will be a state that sees all rain and it presently has very little in the way of storm activity with a lone Severe Thunderstorm Warning active at the time of this writing. Friday will be a different story as the Storm Prediction Center gives a slight risk of severe weather to Northern Florida and Southern Georgia. While Florida won’t see any snow, showers and thunderstorms can be expected across the entire state.

For Georgia, only light amounts of snow are expected with 1-3 inches of snow and some light icing for the northern part of the state. Winter Weather Advisories have been issued for anywhere north of a Carrollton to Jonesboro to Lexington line including Atlanta.

A Freezing rain advisory has been issued in South Carolina for a line from Timmonsville to just north of Conway on into Castle Hayne North Carolina. A Trace up to a tenth of an inch of ice is expected in this region. Only a coating of snow may fall in this area.

Further North and West in South and North Carolina, The Piedmont region up into the mountains and foothills, including Greenville-Spartanburg and the Charlotte metro area should expect a significant icing situation with up to half an inch of ice accretion in the area. 2-10 inches of snow will fall with the higher amounts in the mountains and the lower amounts on the Piedmont. This ice and snow, along with gusty winds greatly increases the risk of power outages and makes for very dangerous travel. Any preparations for this storm should be completed by tonight.

The coastal plain for North Carolina also has winter weather advisories issued until 11 AM Friday. There will be about a tenth of an inch of snow and some small sleet accumulations. This will be a mostly rain event for this area as the storm develops off the coast.

Major, Possibly Historic, Winter Storm On The Way

snowstorm analog

There are is definitely a lot to discuss with the upcoming Friday/Saturday winter storm that could end up being significant and potentially historic. While it has become certain that there will be a big winter storm, the uncertainty lies in determining the overall storm track and placement of heaviest snowfall accumulations. Given that it’s only Tuesday night, a lot can change on specifics, so it’s important to keep that in mind, especially when reading any forecasts that are based entirely on forecast models. I know I bring this up a lot, but I always want my audience to be aware of the limitations of such an approach. I’ll be discussing the various solutions that are being shown on the latest model guidance, but in addition, I’ll be pointing out specifics that the models may not be handling well with this system. Due to the complex nature of this upcoming system, I may be required to do a follow-up article that includes some changes, if needed.

Discussion (Friday through Weekend System):

A vigorous shortwave (disturbance) will be moving into the Pacific Northwest, and as it moves southeastward, it will dig into the Southern Plains. A surface low will move/develop over the Plains in response to this disturbance and move eastward across the Southeast, as this disturbance treks eastward. This will eventually trigger the development of a long-wave trough in the eastern U.S., and colder air should begin getting wrapped around the low pressure system. This energy will eventually transfer to the coast, and a coastal low should move up the coast.

There is higher than average confidence on how this system will evolve, but the specifics on the exact track are going to be difficult to nail down. The GFS model and most of its ensembles, along with the Canadian model, have the original surface low moving up through Tennessee before its energy gets transferred to the coast. The European model is now showing a more southerly track across the Gulf Coast states, which would allow for some accumulating snow to fall farther to the south and would shift the core of heaviest snowfall farther south, also. On almost all guidance that I have seen, a pretty stout warm nose is initially present well north into eastern Tennessee and even southern regions of Kentucky. This is likely due to the placement of the original surface low and the orientation of the long-wave trough.

To complicate this forecast even further, a cold air damming scenario could set up east of the Appalachians, allowing temperatures to stay below freezing at the surface in places, despite the warm air advection that will likely try to pump northward, overrunning this cold. This sets up a tricky forecast from Northeast Georgia, parts of Upstate South Carolina/extending east and central-east North Carolina (excluding the coast) Even with the system taking a more northerly track, the colder air at the surface may not get out quickly enough before a nasty ice situation unfolds across the mentioned areas.

The latest Canadian represents this possible ice situation well on Friday:

Canadian ice

Snowfall will likely start falling across northern and central Arkansas Thursday night going into Friday and expand into parts of southern Missouri and into the western third of Tennessee. Snow will eventually spread eastward into Kentucky and parts of the lower Ohio Valley through Friday and eventually expand into the Mid-Atlantic states including West Virginia, Virginia, North Carolina, Washington, D.C., and into the Mid-Atlantic states later on Friday going into Saturday. Southern Pennsylvania, including Philadelphia could be hit hard, along with parts of New England, especially along the coast. This is going to be a slow-moving system, and backend snow could fall as far south as the northern third of Mississippi, Alabama, Georgia, much of Tennessee, and into northern parts of South Carolina. Depending on track, there will likely be a region of very heavy snowfall amounts falling, including many of the regions that I just mentioned. This system has the potential to rival or beat some of the historical winter storms of the past and is looking similar to the January 1996 blizzard.

Just To Reiterate A Few Points:

• The European model has been depicting a more southern track. I’m skeptical of this solution currently, although I’m not ruling it out entirely. If there is a southern trend in the track, snowfall accumulations would likely fall farther south and the heaviest snowfall accumulations would shift south. This would also exclude the most northern regions mentioned in this article from getting heavier accumulations.
• A warm nose extending as far north as eastern Tennessee could cause many of these regions to get rain before possibly seeing a transition to some snow (possibly heavy) on the backend of this system. Accumulations would be possible but not as heavy as in surrounding regions.
• Due to cold air damming, an icy situation could setup initially across northeastern parts of Georgia, Upstate SC and possibly extending eastward across the state and into central-eastern portions of North Carolina (excluding the coast). A transition to snow could eventually occur in these regions, with higher accumulations occurring the farther north one goes.
• The core of heaviest snow accumulations could fall somewhere from northern Arkansas/southern Missouri into northwest and north-central Tennessee, across Kentucky, and particularly into the Mid-Atlantic states extending into parts of North Carolina. Many regions in this zone could be measuring snow in feet before all is said and done.

I will continue to monitor this situation closely. I posted a map that shows a 72-hour snowfall output map based on 15 previous winter storms that look similar to this one, courtesy of CIPS Analog Guidance:

snowstorm analog

Just keep in mind that I’m expecting snow to fall west of this region as mentioned in my article, but I did want to show you this map.

Anyway, I will definitely have to make edits to this forecast, since it’s a difficult and tricky forecast. Someone is going to get hit very hard with this winter storm, and at this point, it’s a matter of determining where. More updates to come. . .

Historic Blizzard To Slam The Mid-Atlantic and Northeast

Latest Snowfall Accumulation Projections from the GFS Model Through Wednesday Morning

It’s not too often that you get to throw around the words ‘historic’ or ‘epic’ when talking about a potential winter storm or even blizzard, but given the continued forecast model consistency, I must acknowledge that this winter storm could be quite the doozy early this week for parts of the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast. At Firsthand Weather, I try get you prepared for such winter events without all of the nonsense and hype, and this potential blizzard is nothing that you want to take lightly. Before I get into the details, it’s important to understand that a small shift in the track of this storm could and would throw off the entire forecast, which makes it important to stay updated every few hours in order to adequately prepare for this event.

What Exactly Is Going On?

A piece of energy is diving south from Manitoba, Canada and has an associated surface low pressure system moving southeast with it. Many of you are likely familiar with the term ‘Alberta clipper’ even if you don’t actually know what that is. Simply put, an Alberta clipper is a fast-moving storm system in the winter that originates from the Canadian province of Alberta and moves into the United States. So what is a storm system called that originates from the Manitoba province during the winter? A Manitoba Mauler!

This Manitoba Mauler is currently located over the Central Plains and will be sweeping southeast during the day on Sunday going into Monday. This is going to originally bring a swath of snow from the Central Plains to the Ohio River Valley and eventually for parts of the Tennessee Valley. As this system moves eastward, its energy is going to be transferred to the East Coast, and a coastal low is going to develop and strengthen off the coast of North Carolina and Virginia.

Parts of the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast will get some accumulating snowfall before this system makes it to the East Coast, but once this storm is on the coast, it is literally going to explode. This rapidly intensifying storm system will move up the coast Monday night going into Tuesday and will bring a significant blizzard with it for parts of the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast.

This shows the blizzard moving up the East Coast on Tuesday morning.

This shows the blizzard moving up the East Coast on Tuesday morning.

Who Could Be Hit The Hardest?

I know that I’ve already discussed some of the regions that will be impacted before this system makes it to the coast, but I want to get into more specifics regarding the regions that will be slammed as this system moves up the coast.

The regions that could be hit the hardest will likely be from Philadelphia up through New Jersey, New York City and Long Island, Boston, and up through Maine. Blizzard conditions could occur along all of these regions, especially from the Jersey shore up through New York City and Boston and eventually up towards Maine. Forecast models have been consistent with dumping at least a foot of snow over all of these regions with New York City and the Boston area getting up to two feet of snow.

Latest Snowfall Accumulation Projections from the GFS Model Through Wednesday Morning

Latest Snowfall Accumulation Projections from the GFS Model Through Wednesday Morning

It’s important to note that this is on a 10:1 snow ratio scale, and snow ratios could be higher for some of these regions. Because of this, some of these snow totals could be higher.

The latest European model has the heaviest snowfall accumulations around the New York City area.

The latest European model has the heaviest snowfall accumulations around the New York City area.

Again, it’s important to understand that things could change, but with this kind of model consistency and agreement, it’s best to prepare for the worst-case scenario. If these kinds of snowfall accumulations fall over these regions, this would definitely be a historical storm for many regions.

Future Updates and Preparations:

I didn’t mention all of the regions that could be impacted by this storm, but it’s VERY important to make preparations for this coming storm. With these kinds of storms, changes can occur at the very last minute so please keep checking back with Firsthand Weather and your local meteorologists.

A local meteorologist in the Boston area has plans to send me a forecast later in the day on Sunday, and hopefully I’ll have his article posted on the site by Sunday afternoon or evening.