Matthew downgraded to Post Tropical Storm

Satellite and radar imagery show that Matthew has continued to degrade and is now a Post Tropical Storm.  Matthew’s center is now exposed to the wind shear that has begun affecting him with no deep convection near the center.  Despite this, strong winds continue across Eastern North Carolina this morning with winds just southwest of the center still sustained at hurricane force.

A motion toward the east-northeast or east is expected for the next couple of days. On the forecast track, the center of Matthew will move farther offshore of the coast of the North Carolina Outer Banks today and tonight.  Maximum sustained winds are near 75 mph with higher gusts. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles, mainly to the southwest of the center, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 240 miles. A sustained wind of 61 mph and a gust to 79 mph were recently measured by a National Ocean Service instrument at Duck, North Carolina. A wind gust to 90 mph (127 km/h) was measured at an elevated private weather station near Nags Head, North Carolina and a wind gust to 70 mph (113 km/h) has been observed at Dare County Airport near Manteo, North Carolina. . The estimated minimum central pressure is 984 mb (29.06 inches).

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Hurricane Hunters

An air force reserve reconnaissance mission completed this morning continues to indicate hurricane force winds were occurring, but not over land.

Surface observations indicate that the cold front should overtake Matthew shortly and push Matthew east with no loop occurring towards Florida.  Matthew should undergo his extra tropical transition when this occurs before he dissipates.

 

Watches and Warnings:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for North of Surf City to Duck North Carolina including the Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Cape Fear to Duck North Carolina including the Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds

Flood Warnings and High Wind Advisories are in effect for most of North Carolina and Southeast Virginia.

 

As Matthew’s structure changes, the system’s strongest winds continue to shift to the west side of the circulation. The winds are expected to increase significantly over the coastal areas of eastern North Carolina during the next several hours, and during the next 6 to 12 hours there is the possibility of near-hurricane force winds over the North Carolina Outer Banks, as well as the Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds. There is also an increased threat of storm surge in these areas.

Matthew Hazards:

 

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to continue over the warning area through early this afternoon, and then gradually diminish by this evening. Hurricane-force wind gusts should continue through this morning over the North Carolina Outer Banks.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge, the tide, and large and destructive waves will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide Surf City to Duck, North Carolina, including portions of the Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds could see surge tides of 3 to 5 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of onshore winds. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. Large waves generated by Matthew will cause water rises to occur well in advance of and well away from the track of the center. There is a danger of life-threatening inundation during the next 36 hours along the coast from Surf City to Duck, North Carolina, including portions of the Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds.

RAINFALL: Matthew is expected to produce additional rainfall accumulations of 1 to 3 inches across southeast Virginia and extreme eastern North Carolina through this morning. Storm total rainfall of 6 to 12 inches, with isolated amounts up to 20 inches, continues to result in life-threatening flooding and flash flooding across the region.

SURF: Swells generated by Matthew will continue to affect much of the southeastern and Mid-Atlantic coasts of the United States during the next couple of days. These swells will likely cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.

 

Robert Millette

Major Hurricane Matthew Update

Major Hurricane Matthew has maximum sustained winds are near 145 mph with higher gusts approaching 170 mph, making Matthew is a category 4 hurricane. Many will have to seriously consider support from people similar to Murfreesboro TN Roofing Pros to repair their homes after such a powerful hurricane. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 40 miles from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185 miles. The estimated minimum central pressure is 934 mb (27.58 inches).

 

Major Hurricane Matthew Forecast

Matthew

The satellite presentation of Matthew remains very impressive this morning. The eye was obscured during part of the night, but has become more distinct and slightly larger during the past couple of
hours.

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The Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft measured a peak 700-millibar flight level wind of 163 mph, and surface winds of 145 mph in the northeast quadrant. During the final passage through the eye a little before 1 AM, the aircraft reported a minimum pressure of 934 millibar. The next reconnaissance aircraft mission is scheduled to be in Matthew before 8 AM this morning.

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Hurricane conditions are beginning to reach the southwestern portion of Haiti and will spread northward today as the center of Matthew will passes near and over southwestern Haiti. Hurricane conditions are expected to reach eastern Cuba later today. After moving north of Cuba, Matthew is expected to turn north-northwestward. Matthew will then bring hurricane conditions to the southeastern Bahamas Tuesday evening, the central Bahamas on Wednesday, and the northwestern Bahamas Wednesday night. Tropical storm conditions are expected in portions of Jamaica and along the southern coast of the Dominican Republic within the warning area today, and will spread northward into the Turks and Caicos Islands tonight.

 

Watches and Warnings

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for Haiti, the Cuban provinces of Guantanamo, Santiago de Cuba, Holguin, Granma, and Las Tunas, The Southeastern Bahamas, including the Inaguas, Mayaguana, Acklins, Crooked Island, Long Cay, and Ragged Island, The Central Bahamas, including Long Island, Exuma, Rum Cay, San Salvador, and Cat Island and the Northwestern Bahamas, including the Abacos, Andros Island, Berry Islands, Bimini, Eleuthera, Grand Bahama Island, and New Providence

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for the Cuban province of Camaguey

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the Dominican Republic from Barahona westward to the border with Haiti, Jamaica, and the Turks and Caicos Islands

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for the Dominican Republic from Puerto Plata westward to the border with Haiti

Model analysis

Interests elsewhere in Hispaniola and in the Florida Peninsula and the Florida Keys should monitor the progress of Matthew. Tropical storm and/or hurricane watches are likely for portions of the
Florida peninsula and Florida Keys later this morning.

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Tropical storm or hurricane conditions could also affect portions of Georgia, South Carolina, and North Carolina later this week or this weekend, even if the center of Matthew remains offshore.

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It is too soon to specify what, if any, direct impacts Matthew might have on the remainder of the U.S. east coast farther north. At a minimum, very dangerous beach and boating conditions are likely along much of the U.S. east coast later this week and weekend. A State of Emergency has already been declared in Florida and North Carolina.

 

 

RAINFALL: Matthew is expected to produce total rainfall amounts in the following areas:

Southern Haiti and southwestern Dominican Republic: 15 to 25 inches, isolated 40 inches
Eastern Cuba and northwestern Haiti: 8 to 12 inches, isolated 20 inches
Eastern Jamaica: 4 to 6 inches, isolated 10 inches
The Bahamas: 8 to 12 inches, isolated 15 inches
Turks and Caicos Islands: 2 to 5 inches, isolated 8 inches
Northeastern Haiti and the Northern Dominican Republic: 1 to 3 inches, isolated 5 inches
Western Jamaica: 1 to 2 inches, isolated 3 inches

Life-threatening flash floods and mudslides are likely from this rainfall in Haiti, the southwestern Dominican Republic, and eastern Cuba.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and large and destructive waves could raise water levels by as much as the following amounts above normal tide levels.

Southern Coast of Cuba east of Cabo Cruz: 7 to 11 feet
South Coast of Haiti: 7 to 10 feet
Northern Coast of Cuba east of Camaguey: 4 to 6 feet
Jamaica: 2 to 4 feet
Gulf of Gonave in Haiti: 3 to 5 feet
Southern coast of the Dominican Republic: 1 to 3 feet
The Bahamas: 10 to 15 feet

Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. Large waves generated by Matthew will cause water rises to occur
well in advance of and well away from the track of the center.

SURF: Swells generated by Matthew will continue to affect portions of the coasts of Hispaniola, Jamaica, eastern Cuba, and the Caribbean coastline of Central America during the next few
days. Swells from Matthew will begin affecting portions of the Bahamas on Tuesday. These swells are likely to cause life- threatening surf and rip current conditions.

 

Robert Millette

 

 

Hermine continues to slam the East Coast

Hermine, still a tropical storm, is moving toward the northeast near 22 mph, and this general motion is expected to continue with some decrease in forward speed through Saturday night. A gradual turn toward the north is expected on Sunday.  On the forecast track, the center of Hermine will continue to move across eastern North Carolina during the next several hours and emerge over the Atlantic later today.  Maximum sustained winds remain near 60 mph with higher gusts.  Strengthening is forecast after the center moves over water, and Hermine could be near hurricane intensity by Sunday.  Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 185 miles mainly to the south and east of the center.   The estimated minimum central pressure is 997 mb.Hermine

 

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT FOR TROPICAL STORM HERMINE:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for…

Surf City, North Carolina to Sandy Hook, New Jersey, including Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds, Chesapeake Bay from Drum Point southward, the Tidal Potomac from Cobb Island eastward and  Delaware Bay

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for…

North of Sandy Hook, New Jersey to west of Watch Hill, Rhode Island, including Long Island.

 

Tropical storm conditions will continue to spread northward within the warning area along the Atlantic coast through Sunday.  Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area by
late Sunday or Sunday night.   The combination of a storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline.  There is a danger of life-threatening inundation during the next 24 hours in the Hampton Roads area as a storm surge of 3-5 feet comes ashore.  Persons within this area should take all necessary
actions to protect life and property from rising water.  There is also the possibility of life-threatening inundation during the next 48 hours at most coastal locations between the North Carolina/Virginia border and Bridgeport, Connecticut as storm tides of 2-4 feet come ashore.  These tides will combine with expected rainfall accumulations of 4-7 inches from Southeastern Virginia and Atlantic Coastal Maryland and may contribute to additional flooding.

Storm surge Hampton Roads storm surge New york Philly New England

Hermine is beginning to undergo an extra tropical transition, but once back over open waters, may redevelop her tropical characteristics and should approach Hurricane Strength off the Delmarva while south of New England.   Areas north of Virginia under a Tropical Storm Warning or Watch should prepare for conditions to worsen throughout the weekend, as should coastal areas of Massachusetts and Rhode Island.

Tropical Storm Watches Issued

Tropical

Tropical Storm Watch Issued for North Carolina

The Tropical Atlantic has become very active with 2 Tropical Depressions developing in the last day close to the Southeast Coastline, one near Florida and the other threatening North Carolina.  Hurricane Gaston also quickly intensified into a category 3 Hurricane but remains no threat to land.  NOAA aircraft are scheduled to investigate both Tropical Depressions today.

Major Hurricane Gaston

Gaston

Gaston remains a well organized hurricane and current satellite images indicate that the eye remains quite distinct with deep convection around it.  The upper-level outflow is well  established both to the west and the east of the system providing good outflow at the top of the system.  Maximum sustained winds are 120 MPH and the minimum central pressure has dropped to 957 millibars as Gaston continues to strengthen slightly.

Gaston has not moved very little during the last several hours and should remain generally stationary overnight and Monday. Gaston remains in weak steering currents caused by a blocking mid-level ridge to its northwest.  A trough that is currently over eastern Canada is expected to dampen by the time it nears Gaston, but it should be strong enough to erode the ridge and allow the hurricane to become embedded in the mid-latitude westerlies. This pattern change should result in Gaston’s turning east-northeastward continuing in that direction through the remainder of the forecast period.

The atmospheric conditions suggest that Gaston could maintain its strength for the next day or so, however, given the expected slow motion of the cyclone there is some chance that cold water upwelling would counteract that.  Beyond that time, the hurricane is likely to encounter an environment of increasing shear, drier air, and cooler water. Given these expected conditions, Gaston should begin to weaken on Monday.

Tropical Depression 8, Tropical Storm risk for North Carolina

Tropical Storm Watches have been issued for the coast of North Carolina from Cape Lookout to Oregon Inlet.

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Satellite imagery shows that Tropical Depression Eight is currently comprised of a swirl of low-level clouds accompanied by minimal shower activity.  This structure is due to the impacts of 20-25 kt
of southeasterly vertical wind shear and abundant mid- to upper-level dry air seen in water vapor imagery. Maximum sustained winds are currently 35 MPH and the minimum central pressure is 1010 millibars.
The initial motion is West to Northwest at 10 MPH.  For the next 48 hours, the depression is expected to move west-northwestward to northwestward toward a weakness in the subtropical ridge near the North Carolina coast.  After that time, a mid-latitude shortwave trough moving through the northeastern United States is forecast to erode the ridge and cause the cyclone to recurve Northeastward into the westerlies.  The track guidance is in good agreement with this scenario, and the new track forecast lies near the consensus models through 48 hours which would bring the storm within 35 nautical miles of Cape Hatteras.

Wind shear is expected to decrease during the next 48 hours and  depression 8 is expected to move into a more moist environment.  Based on this, the intensity guidance is showing
strengthening as the system approaches the coast of North Carolina. The intensity forecast also shows some strengthening, but it is on the low side of the guidance envelope due to uncertainty about
whether the environment will become as favorable as the models are suggesting.   Depression 8 is expected to recurve but with such a small distance between its expected location and the coast landfall as a tropical system is certainly not out of the question.

Tropical Depression 9

Depression 9

Flight-level wind data from an earlier NOAA reconnaissance mission along with WSR-88D Doppler radar data from Key West indicate that the depression had been moving southwestward.  However, the most recent radar data and nearby surface observations suggest that the cyclone has now turned toward the west. The last reliable wind data from the NOAA WP-3 recon aircraft supported an intensity of 35 MPH, and that intensity is being maintained for this advisory given that the radar and satellite signatures haven’t improved. The central pressure of 1007 mb is based on a reliable observation from ship WMKN, located just north of the center.

The initial motion estimate is to the West at 9 MPH. Now that deep convection has waned, the system has turned westward and this motion is expected to continue for the next 24 hours or so. This short term motion is supported by NOAA recon dropsonde data, which indicated that 500 mb heights were 10-20 meters higher over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico than what the global models have been forecasting. After that time, the global and regional models are in surprisingly good agreement on the cyclone slowing down and turning toward the west-northwest and then northward in the 36- to 48-hour periods as the depression moves around the western periphery of a narrow subtropical ridge that is expected to be located over South Florida. By 72 hours and beyond, the tropical cyclone is forecast to lift out and accelerate to the northeast towards Western Florida coast.  The current forecast Track brings the system on shore North of Tampa.

Strong vertical shear that has been inhibiting this system for the past week is expected to gradually subside to less than 15 MPH in 18-24 hours, which should allow for more organized convection
to develop. However, the southerly low-level inflow will still be disrupted by the terrain of western Cuba.  By 36 hours and beyond, the depression will moving over SSTs greater than 30C and the light vertical wind shear is expected to back around from a northerly to a southwesterly direction, which usually favors more significant intensification. However, there is  lot of dry air in the region north of Key West and this will play a factor in preventing rapid intesnfication of this system.

Robert Millette

Staff Meteorologist

Firsthand Weather

Tropical Storm Warnings into North Carolina

Tropical Storm Colin

 

Tropical Storm Warnings have indeed been extended into North Carolina as forecast here at Firsthand earlier today.

Tropical Storm

Tropical Storm Warnings are not in effect from Indian Pass to Englewood Florida on the Gulf Coast, and from Sebastian Inlet Florida to Oregon Inlet North Carolina.

Colin is now moving north northeast at 23 miles per hour and is 70 miles south southwest of Appalachicola Florida.  Colin should move on shore during the next few hours.  Several locations in Florida have already felt the effect of Colin’s outer bands as strong gusty tropical downpours moved on shore.   3-5 inches of rain is expected with some higher amounts where training occurs.  Coastal Flooding should be held to a minimum as Colin approaches during low Tide.  Locations on thee Atlantic Coast may not get so lucky however and will have an onshore flow during high tide on Tuesday.   We will keep track of Colin’s forward movement to help pinpoint the locations that could see the strongest winds during high tide.

Colin’s maximum sustained winds remains at 50 mph, but his minimum central pressure has begun to drop again and is now down to 1002 millibars.  A slight increase in winds is not out of the question before landfall occurs.

Tropical Storm

Remember,   tornadoes are a risk in this region

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Colin’s strongest winds and heaviest rains are displaced to the centers Southeast.  This is why the warnings expand so far in that direction.  Tropical Storm conditions will extend well to the south and west of the location of landfall.  Forecast models continue to show that Colin will continue to deepen and that wind speed will increase.  The coastal areas of the Carolinas should be especially on the watch for winds in excess of 60 miles per hour as Colin increases wind speeds off the Atlantic coast.

Robert Millette

Staff Meteorologist

Firsthand Weather