Southern Plains Storms

As expected this time of the year, it has been hot and oppressive across the Southern Plains this week. Luckily, changes are in store beginning tomorrow (Friday). An approaching upper-level trough will push a cool front into northern Oklahoma late tonight into Friday. This cool front will provide adequate lift to generate scattered thunderstorm activity along and north of I-40 in Oklahoma, southern Kansas, and parts of the Texas Panhandle. Any thunderstorm that develops tomorrow has the chance to become severe. The main threats are damaging winds and large hail.
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SPC Thunderstorm Forecast (Friday)

Heavy rainfall is possible with the thunderstorm activity on Friday, too, and the rain chances will continue through Sunday. These rain chances will continue throughout the weekend due to a couple upper-level disturbances moving across the area. 1-2″ is possible north of I-40, and for parts of the Texas Panhandle; with isolated higher amounts.
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NAM Rainfall Forecast Through The Weekend

While most of southern Oklahoma and northern Texas wont see widespread rain chances. A few thunderstorms are possible for these areas; however, the more widespread activity will remain further north. Areas that do not see rainfall/cloud-cover can expect temperatures and humidity levels to remain uncomfortably high.

Sunday Severe Storms

Showers and thunderstorms are ongoing across parts of Oklahoma and northern Texas this morning. This activity will continue to progress towards the east throughout the morning hours before new activity ignites. A cool front is slowly pushing into central Oklahoma this morning, coupled with a shortwave trough rapidly approaching the area; this will be the focus for new thunderstorm development this afternoon.
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HRRR Simulated Radar For This Afternoon

Some of these storms will likely be strong to severe and the Storm Prediction Center has a slight risk for severe thunderstorms for most of eastern Oklahoma. Damaging winds, large hail, very heavy rainfall, and frequent lighting will be possible with any thunderstorm.
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SPC Thunderstorm Forecast (Yellow Area: Slight Risk)

The heaviest rainfall will be along and east of I-35. These areas will see .5-1″ of rainfall with amounts as high as 2-4″ towards northeastern Oklahoma.
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HRRR Rainfall Forecast

If you’re on area lakes today, please remain on high alert in case a thunderstorm approaches your area. Regardless of thunderstorm chances, temperatures will be extremely hot. Heat indices will exceed 100, so stay hydrated out there. Another chance for thunderstorms exists for you 4th of July across parts of Texas and Oklahoma. I’ll have an update on this later this evening.

Southern Plains Storms

Shower and thunderstorm chances will continue across much of Kansas, northern Oklahoma, and the Texas Panhandle over the next few days. Isolated thunderstorms are ongoing across parts of the Southern Plains this evening, but more widespread activity is expected to develop in eastern Colorado/western Kansas and propagate towards northern Oklahoma tonight into early Thursday.

By Thursday evening a weak cool front will advance into Kansas and north of I-40 (in Oklahoma) by Friday morning. This boundary will be the focus for several rounds of showers and storms for Kansas as well as northern and central Oklahoma. Heavy rainfall is likely during this setup; most areas north of I-40 will see 1-2″ with isolated 3-6″ possible. This could create flash flooding for localized areas during the day on Friday. Isolated damaging winds and large hail is possible with any storm over the next few days, and lightning will be a major concern for those who have outdoor plans.
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Potential Rainfall Totals (Next 5 Days)

It is important to note that the area will see a northerly flow aloft, so some of the thunderstorms that develop in northern/central Oklahoma may move further south than the models indicate. This will keep scattered rain chances in the forecast for southern Oklahoma as well as northern Texas, but the greatest coverage will be north of I-40.

Rain chances will subside for northern Texas and much of Oklahoma on Saturday, but appear to return later in the weekend. These rain chances will be bumped up a few notches on Sunday into Monday due to the upper-level ridge weakening. Temperatures will top out in the 80’s and 90’s the rest of this week so make sure you’re staying hydrated! I’ll have more details on the Monday (4th of July) forecast in the next day or two.

More Texas & Oklahoma Flooding That Will Spread Northeast

3 Day Rainfall Map

I am going to keep tonight’s update brief since I sent out a reasonably detailed newsletter last night, which hopefully most of you have already read by now. As soon as I hit the send button last night, I realized that I forgot to include a couple images, so those are included in this update.

Discussion On Potential Flooding From OK/TX Into Central MS Valley/Ohio Valley:

We are reverting back into a similar pattern that many of us became accustomed to last month. Bermuda high pressure is beginning to build back into the Southeast from the Atlantic, which is really going to heat the temperatures back up into 90s across many regions, especially as the week progresses. A cold front currently extends from the Plains up into the Upper Midwest and is going to continue to push southeast before it eventually stalls out by mid-week over the Ohio Valley. It’s not hard to pick out the cold front that extends across the Plains on the current temperature map below.

Current Temperatures

A trough is going to continue to build into the Southwest, which will push pieces of energy into the Southern Plains. As a response to the overall pattern, surface low pressure is going to likely develop by early to mid-week and move across parts of the Texas Panhandle/Oklahoma, dumping copious amounts of rain. It’ll continue to move northeast, pushing heavy rain into southeast Kansas, Missouri, northern Arkansas, and eventually into the Ohio Valley. Luckily, eastern Texas will be dodging all of this rain. I posted WPC’s 3 day rainfall map (in inches) below to give you a better idea of where the heaviest rain could fall.

3 Day Rainfall Map

As you can see, heavy amounts of rain are on the way. There will be some areas that will easily pick up 4 to 6+ inches of rain with locally higher amounts. Flooding must always be taken seriously, and keep in mind that almost all of the regions that will be getting this rain have already gotten flooding rains over the last several weeks.

Flash Flooding Threat Increasing For Parts of Texas & Oklahoma

HWRF Model Landall

Tropical troubles are brewing for parts of the Southern Plains and South this upcoming work week. The National Hurricane Center (NHC) is monitoring a low-pressure system over the southern Gulf of Mexico, just north of the Yucatan Peninsula, this afternoon, and has given the system a 70% of further development into a Tropical Depression or Tropical Storm over the next day or two. Right now, the system is fighting conditions in the upper-levels that are not conducive for development, however this should change over the next 24-48 hours. With that said, regardless of development into a Tropical Depression or Tropical Storm, this system will bring flooding rains to parts of Texas, parts of Oklahoma, Louisiana, and Arkansas.

Projected Rainfall Totals from CMC Model:

CMC Rainfall Totals

The low will move towards the north-northwest—inching closer to the middle to upper Texas Coast by late Monday into Tuesday. The exact timing and track is still to be resolved over the next 12-24 hours because the models are all over the place with this system. This low, as aforementioned, should develop into a weak Tropical Storm by Monday evening, right before it begins to encounter the Texas Coast. This will spread tropical moisture into Texas only exacerbating the flooding issues the state has dealt with over the past month. As the system tracks northward into the state, it appears it will remain intact relatively well. Not only does this mean rain chances, including flash flooding, will be high, but some gusty winds and possible isolated weak tornadoes are possible on the eastern side of this low (probably east of the I-35 corridor) by Tuesday afternoon through Thursday morning. This means that homes could have substantial damage done to them by the flash floods. If this is the case then they will need to get the Action 1 Restoration services provided by them to help restore the water damage.

HWRF Model Landfall Along Texas Coast:

HWRF Model Landall

HWRF Model Brings System Farther North Towards Dallas:

HWRF Model Dallas

HWRF Model Eventually Brings System Along TX/OK Border:

HWRF Model OK/TX

Some locations may see several inches of rainfall. Right now, the best rain chance will be Tuesday through Thursday, and locations along and east of I-35 will likely see 2-6″ of rain (some areas, especially near the Texas Coast and far eastern Texas/eastern Oklahoma may see 5-10″+ of rain). Flooding and flash flooding are likely during the upcoming work week and are the main threats with this system. Again, the exact timing and track of the storm are up in the air right now, but I will have updates as needed to fine-tune this forecast. If you live along and east of I-35, please prepare now for life threatening flash flooding!

Projected Path from Various Models:

Tropical Storm Bill Track

Deadly Flooding Will Get Worse Before Getting Better

Flooding GFS

If you’re located in a state like Texas or Oklahoma, then you may be witnessing one of the biggest floods in modern history. Since I cover a lot of the “big-picture stuff,” I haven’t taken the time to see who has actually reached or who is close to reaching an all-time monthly record of rainfall, but I’d say it’s getting close for quite a few areas. There can be times where the damage that a flash flood has caused may require the assistance of a Cary water damage restoration company (if you live in and around this area) to help correct the effect the water has done on the home. In a situation like this, there is nothing wrong in asking for a helping hand.

Discussion:

Another piece of energy (a shortwave) is currently rounding the base of a trough in the Southwestern U.S., which means more heavy rain will develop across Texas tomorrow and spread eastward into the same areas that have already gotten copious amounts of rain. In the upper-levels of the atmosphere, a strong sub-tropical jet stream (fast-moving winds) is extending across Mexico and curving northward into the Central U.S., which is transporting very moist air into the region.

Deadly Flooding Possible Tomorrow/Tomorrow Night:

Cities that need to be on high alert for dangerous flooding tomorrow into tomorrow night will be Houston, San Antonio, Austin, Dallas, Little Rock, Shreveport and all areas in between. Below is my Memorial Day Forecast that I put out the other night, and if you’re in the “Flooding Rains/Stormy” zone, take notice. There could also be a tornado threat in these areas, but notice that I’m stressing the flooding situation even more. This flooding event will likely extend a bit farther east than previous events over the last few weeks. If your house has been effected by this awful flooding then you might want to visit a website like https://water-damage.us/flood-cleanup/ where they are available 24/7 for any flood cleanup needed.

Memorial Day Forecast

Flooding Rains Will Spread East Into Tuesday:

These flooding rains will eventually spread farther east on Tuesday into the Mississippi Valley. Areas that particularly need to be watched are Mississippi, parts of Alabama/Tennessee and extending northward all the way up through the Great Lakes. These regions have not gotten nearly as much rainfall as areas to the west, but that doesn’t mean flash flooding can’t or won’t occur.

Projected 48-Hour Rainfall Totals From The Latest GFS:

Flooding GFS

Heat Ridge Will Build Along The East Coast:

Residents in the East Coast states need to get ready for hot temperatures for Memorial Day and beyond, with the greatest departures from normal being in the Northeast. Bermuda high pressure will build onto the coast, along with upper-level ridging extending up through the Northeast. This Bermuda high is going to begin wrapping very moist air into the Southeastern U.S. and up the East Coast. Heavy thunderstorms will definitely be possible across the Southeast and extending up the coast (will impact inland regions), especially beginning Monday night and beyond. The regions directly on the coast will have the greatest chance of avoiding any type of thunderstorms, since high pressure will probably suppress thunderstorm development. The humidity will make temperatures seem warmer than they are.

Something To Watch In The Eastern Pacific:

I noticed today that the European model has a tropical system developing in the eastern Pacific and moves the system far enough north to get pulled farther north by a developing trough in the western U.S. This may end up being nothing, but it is something to keep an eye on. If it makes the connection and gets pulled north, this could be another flooding situation in the beginning of June, on top of what may occur before that. The other model guidance isn’t as impressive, but I do think the eastern Pacific is about to have an active hurricane season. As a side note, residents in Hawaii need to take this season a bit more serious than most years.

Eastern Pacific Tropics