Tropical Depression 16 expected to strengthen

Tropical Depression 16 formed earlier today down in the Central American region of the Caribbean.   Tropical Storm Warnings are in effect for portions of Nicaragua and Honduras at this time with the expectation that 16 will strengthen into the next named storm, which would be Nate.

Current environmental conditions are good for development.  16 is sitting in an area of low shear and the sea surface temperatures in the region are very warm.

With the lone exception of colder waters along the coastlines, water temperatures are a warm 29 degrees Celsius over much of the Gulf of Mexico.  The one inhibiting factor in all of this, will be the land interactions that 16 will make.   Landfall is expected along Nicaragua and Honduras, and even if 16 does not make another landfall, he will still pass close to the Yucatan Peninsula and Western Cuba before entering the gulf.  These interactions could prevent major intensification before the gulf.

Hurricane Hunter aircraft did perform a recon mission earlier today, showing a closed and well defined center of circulation.  While there isn’t much deep convection near the center, tropical banding is strong with this system.

Once in the gulf, 16 is forecast to become a hurricane.  The current forecast brings what would be Hurricane Nate towards the Florida Panhandle, as shown below, but anywhere from Louisiana to Northern Florida should be watching this system.  Current model tracks have a wide area due to the impact of a tropical low that moves past Florida.  This low is given a small chance to develop into a tropical system itself, but the strength of this feature will play a role in the future track of 16.

Tropical

Early preparations should  begin soon for those along the gulf coast.  Having a few extra batteries or a bottle of water around is never a bad thing and it’s much better for everyone if they are purchased in advance.  Stores will place larger orders for products if people are buying them.

 

Robert Millette

Tropics heat up as Franklin moves ashore

The tropics have been heating up as Tropical Storm Franklin has moved ashore on the Yucatan Peninsula this morning.  Franklin continues to batter the region with heavy rains and high winds.  Current sustained winds are 60 mph with rainfall expected to cause significant flooding and flash flood conditions. A storm surge of 2-4 feet was expected and major evacuations have occurred in low lying communities in Mexico.   Tropical Storm Warnings continue from Belize City to the Gulf coast of the Yucatan at Sabancuy at this time.  Franklin is expected to move into the Gulf of Mexico later on today.

Tropical Storm Watches are in effect from Sabancuy to Puerto de Veracruz along the southern portion of the Gulf of Mexico.   Once in the gulf, Franklin is expected to intensify and as we mentioned on Sunday, Franklin is going to come very close to hurricane strength before making a second landfall in Mexico.  To account for this, hurricane Watches are in effect from Puerto de Veracruz north to Rio Panuco.  Some of this area will be downgraded to a Tropical Storm Warning as Franklin approaches, as the hurricane wind field will not be that big.  The large area is simply to take into account possible changes to the track.

As we have stated before, Franklin is not a threat to make landfall in the US.

Tropical Atlantic

In other news for the tropics a tropical wave roughly 1000 miles east of the Lesser Antilles continues to be disorganized at this hour.  Environmental conditions remain poor for development over the next couple of days.  Conditions begin to improve as this system moves north of the Lesser Antilles into the region around the Bahamas.  Some models have developed this system and bring a tropical risk to the east coast of the United States so we here at Firsthand Weather will be watching this system closely.

 

Robert Millette

Matthew downgraded to Post Tropical Storm

Satellite and radar imagery show that Matthew has continued to degrade and is now a Post Tropical Storm.  Matthew’s center is now exposed to the wind shear that has begun affecting him with no deep convection near the center.  Despite this, strong winds continue across Eastern North Carolina this morning with winds just southwest of the center still sustained at hurricane force.

A motion toward the east-northeast or east is expected for the next couple of days. On the forecast track, the center of Matthew will move farther offshore of the coast of the North Carolina Outer Banks today and tonight.  Maximum sustained winds are near 75 mph with higher gusts. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles, mainly to the southwest of the center, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 240 miles. A sustained wind of 61 mph and a gust to 79 mph were recently measured by a National Ocean Service instrument at Duck, North Carolina. A wind gust to 90 mph (127 km/h) was measured at an elevated private weather station near Nags Head, North Carolina and a wind gust to 70 mph (113 km/h) has been observed at Dare County Airport near Manteo, North Carolina. . The estimated minimum central pressure is 984 mb (29.06 inches).

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Hurricane Hunters

An air force reserve reconnaissance mission completed this morning continues to indicate hurricane force winds were occurring, but not over land.

Surface observations indicate that the cold front should overtake Matthew shortly and push Matthew east with no loop occurring towards Florida.  Matthew should undergo his extra tropical transition when this occurs before he dissipates.

 

Watches and Warnings:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for North of Surf City to Duck North Carolina including the Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Cape Fear to Duck North Carolina including the Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds

Flood Warnings and High Wind Advisories are in effect for most of North Carolina and Southeast Virginia.

 

As Matthew’s structure changes, the system’s strongest winds continue to shift to the west side of the circulation. The winds are expected to increase significantly over the coastal areas of eastern North Carolina during the next several hours, and during the next 6 to 12 hours there is the possibility of near-hurricane force winds over the North Carolina Outer Banks, as well as the Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds. There is also an increased threat of storm surge in these areas.

Matthew Hazards:

 

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to continue over the warning area through early this afternoon, and then gradually diminish by this evening. Hurricane-force wind gusts should continue through this morning over the North Carolina Outer Banks.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge, the tide, and large and destructive waves will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide Surf City to Duck, North Carolina, including portions of the Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds could see surge tides of 3 to 5 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of onshore winds. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. Large waves generated by Matthew will cause water rises to occur well in advance of and well away from the track of the center. There is a danger of life-threatening inundation during the next 36 hours along the coast from Surf City to Duck, North Carolina, including portions of the Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds.

RAINFALL: Matthew is expected to produce additional rainfall accumulations of 1 to 3 inches across southeast Virginia and extreme eastern North Carolina through this morning. Storm total rainfall of 6 to 12 inches, with isolated amounts up to 20 inches, continues to result in life-threatening flooding and flash flooding across the region.

SURF: Swells generated by Matthew will continue to affect much of the southeastern and Mid-Atlantic coasts of the United States during the next couple of days. These swells will likely cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.

 

Robert Millette

Major Hurricane Matthew Update

Major Hurricane Matthew has maximum sustained winds are near 145 mph with higher gusts approaching 170 mph, making Matthew is a category 4 hurricane. Many will have to seriously consider support from people similar to Murfreesboro TN Roofing Pros to repair their homes after such a powerful hurricane. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 40 miles from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185 miles. The estimated minimum central pressure is 934 mb (27.58 inches).

 

Major Hurricane Matthew Forecast

Matthew

The satellite presentation of Matthew remains very impressive this morning. The eye was obscured during part of the night, but has become more distinct and slightly larger during the past couple of
hours.

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The Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft measured a peak 700-millibar flight level wind of 163 mph, and surface winds of 145 mph in the northeast quadrant. During the final passage through the eye a little before 1 AM, the aircraft reported a minimum pressure of 934 millibar. The next reconnaissance aircraft mission is scheduled to be in Matthew before 8 AM this morning.

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Hurricane conditions are beginning to reach the southwestern portion of Haiti and will spread northward today as the center of Matthew will passes near and over southwestern Haiti. Hurricane conditions are expected to reach eastern Cuba later today. After moving north of Cuba, Matthew is expected to turn north-northwestward. Matthew will then bring hurricane conditions to the southeastern Bahamas Tuesday evening, the central Bahamas on Wednesday, and the northwestern Bahamas Wednesday night. Tropical storm conditions are expected in portions of Jamaica and along the southern coast of the Dominican Republic within the warning area today, and will spread northward into the Turks and Caicos Islands tonight.

 

Watches and Warnings

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for Haiti, the Cuban provinces of Guantanamo, Santiago de Cuba, Holguin, Granma, and Las Tunas, The Southeastern Bahamas, including the Inaguas, Mayaguana, Acklins, Crooked Island, Long Cay, and Ragged Island, The Central Bahamas, including Long Island, Exuma, Rum Cay, San Salvador, and Cat Island and the Northwestern Bahamas, including the Abacos, Andros Island, Berry Islands, Bimini, Eleuthera, Grand Bahama Island, and New Providence

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for the Cuban province of Camaguey

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the Dominican Republic from Barahona westward to the border with Haiti, Jamaica, and the Turks and Caicos Islands

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for the Dominican Republic from Puerto Plata westward to the border with Haiti

Model analysis

Interests elsewhere in Hispaniola and in the Florida Peninsula and the Florida Keys should monitor the progress of Matthew. Tropical storm and/or hurricane watches are likely for portions of the
Florida peninsula and Florida Keys later this morning.

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Tropical storm or hurricane conditions could also affect portions of Georgia, South Carolina, and North Carolina later this week or this weekend, even if the center of Matthew remains offshore.

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It is too soon to specify what, if any, direct impacts Matthew might have on the remainder of the U.S. east coast farther north. At a minimum, very dangerous beach and boating conditions are likely along much of the U.S. east coast later this week and weekend. A State of Emergency has already been declared in Florida and North Carolina.

 

 

RAINFALL: Matthew is expected to produce total rainfall amounts in the following areas:

Southern Haiti and southwestern Dominican Republic: 15 to 25 inches, isolated 40 inches
Eastern Cuba and northwestern Haiti: 8 to 12 inches, isolated 20 inches
Eastern Jamaica: 4 to 6 inches, isolated 10 inches
The Bahamas: 8 to 12 inches, isolated 15 inches
Turks and Caicos Islands: 2 to 5 inches, isolated 8 inches
Northeastern Haiti and the Northern Dominican Republic: 1 to 3 inches, isolated 5 inches
Western Jamaica: 1 to 2 inches, isolated 3 inches

Life-threatening flash floods and mudslides are likely from this rainfall in Haiti, the southwestern Dominican Republic, and eastern Cuba.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and large and destructive waves could raise water levels by as much as the following amounts above normal tide levels.

Southern Coast of Cuba east of Cabo Cruz: 7 to 11 feet
South Coast of Haiti: 7 to 10 feet
Northern Coast of Cuba east of Camaguey: 4 to 6 feet
Jamaica: 2 to 4 feet
Gulf of Gonave in Haiti: 3 to 5 feet
Southern coast of the Dominican Republic: 1 to 3 feet
The Bahamas: 10 to 15 feet

Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. Large waves generated by Matthew will cause water rises to occur
well in advance of and well away from the track of the center.

SURF: Swells generated by Matthew will continue to affect portions of the coasts of Hispaniola, Jamaica, eastern Cuba, and the Caribbean coastline of Central America during the next few
days. Swells from Matthew will begin affecting portions of the Bahamas on Tuesday. These swells are likely to cause life- threatening surf and rip current conditions.

 

Robert Millette

 

 

Major Hurricane Matthew

Major Hurricane Matthew remains a Category 4 storm.  Matthew is moving toward the northwest near 5 mph and this general motion is expected to continue today, followed by a turn toward the
north tonight.  On the forecast track, the center of Matthew will approach southwestern Haiti and Jamaica on Monday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 150 mph with higher gusts.  Some fluctuations in intensity are possible during the next couple of days, but Matthew is expected to remain a powerful hurricane through Monday night.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles from the center, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205miles.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 947 millibars or 27.96 inches.

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Major Hurricane Matthew

The overall organization of the hurricane has changed little overnight, with the small eye remaining distinct in infrared satellite pictures, though a dry slot has been noted between the eye wall and the outer bands in the South portion of the storm.

Hurricane Matthew

Model Analysis

Matthew has been moving slowly west-northwestward during the past few hours.  Matthew should move slowly northwestward today, and then turn northward tonight as a mid- to upper-level trough develops over the eastern Gulf of Mexico.  This motion will take Matthew towards Jamaica, western Haiti, and eastern Cuba over the next couple of days.  After that time, the global models bend Matthew back toward the north-northwest between the aforementioned trough and a developing ridge off the northeast United States coast.

The dynamical models are in good agreement on this scenario through 72 hours, with increasing spread thereafter.  The GFS, ECMWF, and UKMET are along the western side of the guidance at days 4 and 5, while the HWRF is along the eastern side.  The latest NHC track is close to the model consensus through day 3, but is west of the consensus at 96 and 120 h, to be closer to the typically better performing global models.

Matthew is likely to interact with the land masses of Jamaica, Cuba, and Hispaniola, leading to some weakening and disruption of the storm structure.  After this time, The upper-level wind environment is expected to remain favorable over the Bahamas, and warm waters in that area should allow Matthew to maintain much of its intensity and strengthen while it moves over that area later in the forecast period.

Watches and Warnings

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for Jamaica,  Haiti, and the Cuban provinces of Guantanamo, Santiago de Cuba, Holguin, Granma, and Las Tunas

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for the Cuban province of Camaguey, the Southeastern Bahamas, including the Inaguas, Mayaguana, Acklins, Crooked Island, and Long Cay, and the Turks and Caicos Islands

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the Dominican Republic from Barahona westward to the border with Haiti

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for the Dominican Republic from Puerto Plata westward to the border with Haiti

Hurricane Hunters

The Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate Major Hurricane Matthew this morning, with the data found below.   Although some weakening is predicted during the next couple of days, Matthew is expected to remain a powerful hurricane when it approaches the islands of the Greater Antilles in a couple of days.

 

Robert Millette

Hermine turns toward New England

Hermine remains a post-tropical cyclone with a cloud pattern more reminiscent of an extratropical low, but as the storm intensifies, moderate convection has been developing just north of the surface center in the northern semicircle during the past few hours within a region of increasing upper-level diffluence.  This diffluence is expected to increase as the wind shear weakens and if the convection continues to develop, Hermine may gain tropical or sub-tropical characteristics before the anticipated weakening begins to occur on Tuesday over cooler water.  Data from an earlier reconnaissance mission along with recent scatterometer data suggest that the intensity remains unchanged at 70 MPH with a minimum central pressure of 997 millibars.  Hermine is also beginning to be picked up by the radar in Taunton and Upton.   Rain bands have already begun to move over the Islands and Cape and those will move further inland with time.  Some places will see an inch or 2 of run from gusty tropical downpours from early this morning through the overnight hours.

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Hermine’s Location

The initial motion is a slow northward drift at about 3 MPH.  Hermine is about 300 Miles from the Eastern tip of Long Island and about 260 miles South of Nantucket.  A gradual turn toward the north-northwest and northwest is expected to occur this afternoon and tonight.

Hermine

 

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for…

The coast of Long Island from Fire Island Inlet to Port Jefferson Harbor and from New Haven to Sagamore Beach, including Block Island, Martha’s Vineyard, and Nantucket.

Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin over portions of the warning area by this afternoon.  Large waves, strong rip currents, and a small storm surge is expected as Hermine makes its closest pass to the coast.  Low lying coastal areas that are usually dry may flood but major coastal flooding is not expected.  Significant beach erosion is expected.

 

Robert Millette

Hermine continues to slam the East Coast

Hermine, still a tropical storm, is moving toward the northeast near 22 mph, and this general motion is expected to continue with some decrease in forward speed through Saturday night. A gradual turn toward the north is expected on Sunday.  On the forecast track, the center of Hermine will continue to move across eastern North Carolina during the next several hours and emerge over the Atlantic later today.  Maximum sustained winds remain near 60 mph with higher gusts.  Strengthening is forecast after the center moves over water, and Hermine could be near hurricane intensity by Sunday.  Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 185 miles mainly to the south and east of the center.   The estimated minimum central pressure is 997 mb.Hermine

 

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT FOR TROPICAL STORM HERMINE:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for…

Surf City, North Carolina to Sandy Hook, New Jersey, including Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds, Chesapeake Bay from Drum Point southward, the Tidal Potomac from Cobb Island eastward and  Delaware Bay

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for…

North of Sandy Hook, New Jersey to west of Watch Hill, Rhode Island, including Long Island.

 

Tropical storm conditions will continue to spread northward within the warning area along the Atlantic coast through Sunday.  Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area by
late Sunday or Sunday night.   The combination of a storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline.  There is a danger of life-threatening inundation during the next 24 hours in the Hampton Roads area as a storm surge of 3-5 feet comes ashore.  Persons within this area should take all necessary
actions to protect life and property from rising water.  There is also the possibility of life-threatening inundation during the next 48 hours at most coastal locations between the North Carolina/Virginia border and Bridgeport, Connecticut as storm tides of 2-4 feet come ashore.  These tides will combine with expected rainfall accumulations of 4-7 inches from Southeastern Virginia and Atlantic Coastal Maryland and may contribute to additional flooding.

Storm surge Hampton Roads storm surge New york Philly New England

Hermine is beginning to undergo an extra tropical transition, but once back over open waters, may redevelop her tropical characteristics and should approach Hurricane Strength off the Delmarva while south of New England.   Areas north of Virginia under a Tropical Storm Warning or Watch should prepare for conditions to worsen throughout the weekend, as should coastal areas of Massachusetts and Rhode Island.

Tropical Storm Warnings into North Carolina

Tropical Storm Colin

 

Tropical Storm Warnings have indeed been extended into North Carolina as forecast here at Firsthand earlier today.

Tropical Storm

Tropical Storm Warnings are not in effect from Indian Pass to Englewood Florida on the Gulf Coast, and from Sebastian Inlet Florida to Oregon Inlet North Carolina.

Colin is now moving north northeast at 23 miles per hour and is 70 miles south southwest of Appalachicola Florida.  Colin should move on shore during the next few hours.  Several locations in Florida have already felt the effect of Colin’s outer bands as strong gusty tropical downpours moved on shore.   3-5 inches of rain is expected with some higher amounts where training occurs.  Coastal Flooding should be held to a minimum as Colin approaches during low Tide.  Locations on thee Atlantic Coast may not get so lucky however and will have an onshore flow during high tide on Tuesday.   We will keep track of Colin’s forward movement to help pinpoint the locations that could see the strongest winds during high tide.

Colin’s maximum sustained winds remains at 50 mph, but his minimum central pressure has begun to drop again and is now down to 1002 millibars.  A slight increase in winds is not out of the question before landfall occurs.

Tropical Storm

Remember,   tornadoes are a risk in this region

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Colin’s strongest winds and heaviest rains are displaced to the centers Southeast.  This is why the warnings expand so far in that direction.  Tropical Storm conditions will extend well to the south and west of the location of landfall.  Forecast models continue to show that Colin will continue to deepen and that wind speed will increase.  The coastal areas of the Carolinas should be especially on the watch for winds in excess of 60 miles per hour as Colin increases wind speeds off the Atlantic coast.

Robert Millette

Staff Meteorologist

Firsthand Weather

Tropical Storm Warnings for South Carolina

Tropical Storm Colin

Tropical Storm Warnings are in effect from Indian Pass to Englewood Florida on the Gulf Coast, and from Sebastian Inlet Florida to the South Santee River in South Carolina.  I anticipate additional Watches and warnings to be extended further north along the South and North Carolina coastline.

Tropical Storm Colin

Colin continues to move toward the north northeast, now at 16 miles per hour.  Maximum sustained winds are at 50 miles per hour with higher gusts, and a minimum central pressure of 1004 millibars.  Colin will continue to strengthen and while not expected  to be a hurricane before making landfall in Florida, some models are beginning to show Colin could approach hurricane strength while moving out to sea over the Atlantic Ocean even as he transitions to a post tropical cyclone.  The map above shows the current track forecast and areas under Tropical Storm Warnings.  The blue  circle next to Colin’s location is  the area currently seeing Tropical Storm Force winds.  As with any tropical system, Colin’s strongest winds are to the right of  the center of  circulation.

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However, this does not preclude localized areas of strong to near Tropical Storm force winds in other parts of  the storm and heavy rain showers with strong winds are already beginning to impact Florida as seen on the radar image below.

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Heavy rainfall continues to be the biggest non wind threat associated with Colin.  While Tropical Storm force winds will effect a large area of Florida into Georgia and the Carolinas, rainfall as high as 3-5 inches is expected over a large area of  the same region.  Some areas that receiving training tropical rain bands could see as much as 8 inches of rain.  Tornadoes are also going to be a risk with this system.  The Storm Prediction Center currently has a 5% risk of Tornadoes in the area.

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Storm Surge does not appear to be a risk at this time as the worst effects of Colin should take place during low tide.  Some localized coastal flooding could occur during high tide  this afternoon as gusty outer band storms move in but the effects should be marginal and of very short duration.  But the Florida coast should expect very dangerous conditions along the shore from very heavy surf.

 

Robert Millette

Staff Meteorologist

Firsthand Weather

Tropical Storm Colin forms

Tropical Storm Colin has been named in the Gulf of Mexico as he strengthened this afternoon.

Tropical Storm

Tropical Storm Warnings remain in effect from Indian Pass to Englewood Florida.  Colin’s winds are now 40 miles per hour with a minimum central pressure of 1003 millibars.  Colin is currently 460 miles Southwest of Tampa and is moving north at 9 miles per hour.  It is possible that the Warning area may be expanded along the Southeast coast towards Pensacola if Colin’s wind field continues to expand.  The west coast of Florida should experience a storm surge of 1-3 feet from Indian Pass to Tampa Bay with 1-2 feet expected south of Tampa Bay to Florida Bay.  Heavy surf and some minor coastal flooding are expected but the main storm surge should occur away from the time of high tide and that will help mitigate the damage.

Tropical Storm Watches have now been issued from Altamaha Sound in Georgia to the Flagler/Volusia County line in Florida.  These areas should expect Tropical Storm conditions late Monday into Tuesday.  Colin is not expected to weaken much as he crosses Florida as his forward speed will make the journey across the state in less than 10 hours.

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Rain will be heavy throughout the area, with 3 to 5 inches expected across the region.  Locally heavier amounts are possible where tropical downpours train over the same area.  There is a risk of tornadoes throughout the Central and Northern Florida region extending into Southern Georgia.

Areas along the coast further into the Carolinas should pay attention to this system as it moves closer as heavy rain is possible in this area.  This could exacerbate existing conditions and cause additional flooding.

Firsthand Weather will continue to keep an eye on Colin and should have another article out in the morning bringing you the latest in information as this system approaches Florida.

Robert  Millette

Staff Meteorologist

Firsthand Weather