Tropical Storm Watches issued from Delware to Massachusetts

Tropical Storm Watches are in effect from Fenwick Island, Delaware, to Sandy Hook, New Jersey, including Delaware Bay South, and from East Rockaway Inlet, New York, to Plymouth, Massachusetts, including Long Island Sound, Block Island, Martha’s Vineyard, and Nantucket.

Tropical Storm

Jose effects on the Outer Banks

Hurricane Jose is currently located a little more than 300 miles southeast of Cape Hatteras.  With his movement straight north, Jose will pass off shore of the Outer Banks.  Current sustained winds are 90 miles per hour with Tropical Storm Force winds extending just over 200 miles from the center.  Tropical Storm force gusts may occur in some of the heavier showers over the Outer Banks, but sustained conditions are not expected in area, so there are no Watches at this time.  Some tropical showers and thunderstorms are already being seen on the Morehead City Nexrad radar.  These showers will continue to develop as Jose moves closer.  Here is the current Satellite view.

Tropical Storm conditions further North

The best chances for sustained Tropical Storm conditions begins in Delaware and goes up the coast into Massachusetts.  The Mid-Atlantic coast could avoid sustained conditions, but widespread tropical storm conditions should be expected as the wind field expands.  Even as Jose weakens, the tropical storm force winds will continue to expand as the transition to an extra tropical system takes place as seen in this forecast below.  This model does keep the sustained winds off the coast, but the watches are in effect due to the risk of those winds moving slightly further west.  It will not take much westward movement to bring these sustained winds onshore in the Mid-Atlantic on Tuesday.

As seen above, the tropical storm force winds are expected to move well ashore in New England and  over Long Island.  The closest pass to the Island of Nantucket, seen below, will occur Wednesday afternoon.

This image shows sustained tropical storm force winds nearly reaching Boston.  I would expect that Watches will be extended further up the East coast of Massachusetts in further advisories.  Tropical Storm force wind gusts could be seen up into Central New England in the heavier showers and thunderstorms of the outer bands.  While the majority of the rain will fall closer to the center of the system, the precipitation shield associated with Jose will be expanding by the time it reaches New England.

We should not just pay attention to the forecast for the center of Jose during this time.  The location of the center only matters in terms of positioning for the overall storm.  The key factor from Delaware north will be the rate of expansion of the wind field and precipitation shield as the system starts its transition from tropical to non-tropical.  Even if Jose is still a Tropical Storm by the time he passes southeast of New England, the transition will have been happening in at least some capacity.

Robert Millette

 

Tropical Storm Watch in the Carolinas

Tropical Storm Watches have been posted from the South Santee River in South Carolina to Duck North Carolina, including the Albemarle and Pamlico Sounds.

Irma

Tropical Update

Florida has been experiencing heavy rains for the past several days at this system spun in the area.  Some areas have seen several inches of rain over the past few days as this system slowly meandered up the peninsula.  This system has been watched for a while as it slowly moved up, but interactions with land and conditions that were neutral or negative for tropical development continued to prevent this system from developing further.   Now that the system is heading over the warm water of the gulf stream, convection is beginning to increase and the storm is organizing despite its sheared environment, which Hurricane Harvey has been helping to maintain.  These storms are starting  to get some separation and we expect to see Tropical Storm Irma form in the next couple of days.

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Model Analysis

Steering currents across the South of the US have been weak as of late.  This is why both this system and Harvey are moving so slowly, as you can see in the early movement of this system.   This will begin to change as a trough moves into the Central United States and begins to make this system move.

This system moves slowly north towards the border of South and North Carolina.  It will come very close to making a landfall here but much of the circulation will remain over water, which will slow any weakening.  This system will flow along the coast up towards the North Carolina Virginia border.  This system has the potential to hit the coastline hard with storm surge and high waves ahead of the storm as it strengthens.

As seen in the track above, as on this model image, the system is expected to make landfall along the North Carolina coast and impact the Outer Banks.  Beyond that, the forecast gets more difficult.  Some models have brought the system further out to sea, but the GFS is bringing the system closer to the coast of New England on some runs and this possibility will need to be monitored in future articles.

 

Rob

Tropics heat up as Franklin moves ashore

The tropics have been heating up as Tropical Storm Franklin has moved ashore on the Yucatan Peninsula this morning.  Franklin continues to batter the region with heavy rains and high winds.  Current sustained winds are 60 mph with rainfall expected to cause significant flooding and flash flood conditions. A storm surge of 2-4 feet was expected and major evacuations have occurred in low lying communities in Mexico.   Tropical Storm Warnings continue from Belize City to the Gulf coast of the Yucatan at Sabancuy at this time.  Franklin is expected to move into the Gulf of Mexico later on today.

Tropical Storm Watches are in effect from Sabancuy to Puerto de Veracruz along the southern portion of the Gulf of Mexico.   Once in the gulf, Franklin is expected to intensify and as we mentioned on Sunday, Franklin is going to come very close to hurricane strength before making a second landfall in Mexico.  To account for this, hurricane Watches are in effect from Puerto de Veracruz north to Rio Panuco.  Some of this area will be downgraded to a Tropical Storm Warning as Franklin approaches, as the hurricane wind field will not be that big.  The large area is simply to take into account possible changes to the track.

As we have stated before, Franklin is not a threat to make landfall in the US.

Tropical Atlantic

In other news for the tropics a tropical wave roughly 1000 miles east of the Lesser Antilles continues to be disorganized at this hour.  Environmental conditions remain poor for development over the next couple of days.  Conditions begin to improve as this system moves north of the Lesser Antilles into the region around the Bahamas.  Some models have developed this system and bring a tropical risk to the east coast of the United States so we here at Firsthand Weather will be watching this system closely.

 

Robert Millette

Major Hurricane Matthew Update

Major Hurricane Matthew has maximum sustained winds are near 145 mph with higher gusts approaching 170 mph, making Matthew is a category 4 hurricane. Many will have to seriously consider support from people similar to Murfreesboro TN Roofing Pros to repair their homes after such a powerful hurricane. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 40 miles from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185 miles. The estimated minimum central pressure is 934 mb (27.58 inches).

 

Major Hurricane Matthew Forecast

Matthew

The satellite presentation of Matthew remains very impressive this morning. The eye was obscured during part of the night, but has become more distinct and slightly larger during the past couple of
hours.

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The Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft measured a peak 700-millibar flight level wind of 163 mph, and surface winds of 145 mph in the northeast quadrant. During the final passage through the eye a little before 1 AM, the aircraft reported a minimum pressure of 934 millibar. The next reconnaissance aircraft mission is scheduled to be in Matthew before 8 AM this morning.

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Hurricane conditions are beginning to reach the southwestern portion of Haiti and will spread northward today as the center of Matthew will passes near and over southwestern Haiti. Hurricane conditions are expected to reach eastern Cuba later today. After moving north of Cuba, Matthew is expected to turn north-northwestward. Matthew will then bring hurricane conditions to the southeastern Bahamas Tuesday evening, the central Bahamas on Wednesday, and the northwestern Bahamas Wednesday night. Tropical storm conditions are expected in portions of Jamaica and along the southern coast of the Dominican Republic within the warning area today, and will spread northward into the Turks and Caicos Islands tonight.

 

Watches and Warnings

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for Haiti, the Cuban provinces of Guantanamo, Santiago de Cuba, Holguin, Granma, and Las Tunas, The Southeastern Bahamas, including the Inaguas, Mayaguana, Acklins, Crooked Island, Long Cay, and Ragged Island, The Central Bahamas, including Long Island, Exuma, Rum Cay, San Salvador, and Cat Island and the Northwestern Bahamas, including the Abacos, Andros Island, Berry Islands, Bimini, Eleuthera, Grand Bahama Island, and New Providence

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for the Cuban province of Camaguey

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the Dominican Republic from Barahona westward to the border with Haiti, Jamaica, and the Turks and Caicos Islands

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for the Dominican Republic from Puerto Plata westward to the border with Haiti

Model analysis

Interests elsewhere in Hispaniola and in the Florida Peninsula and the Florida Keys should monitor the progress of Matthew. Tropical storm and/or hurricane watches are likely for portions of the
Florida peninsula and Florida Keys later this morning.

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Tropical storm or hurricane conditions could also affect portions of Georgia, South Carolina, and North Carolina later this week or this weekend, even if the center of Matthew remains offshore.

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It is too soon to specify what, if any, direct impacts Matthew might have on the remainder of the U.S. east coast farther north. At a minimum, very dangerous beach and boating conditions are likely along much of the U.S. east coast later this week and weekend. A State of Emergency has already been declared in Florida and North Carolina.

 

 

RAINFALL: Matthew is expected to produce total rainfall amounts in the following areas:

Southern Haiti and southwestern Dominican Republic: 15 to 25 inches, isolated 40 inches
Eastern Cuba and northwestern Haiti: 8 to 12 inches, isolated 20 inches
Eastern Jamaica: 4 to 6 inches, isolated 10 inches
The Bahamas: 8 to 12 inches, isolated 15 inches
Turks and Caicos Islands: 2 to 5 inches, isolated 8 inches
Northeastern Haiti and the Northern Dominican Republic: 1 to 3 inches, isolated 5 inches
Western Jamaica: 1 to 2 inches, isolated 3 inches

Life-threatening flash floods and mudslides are likely from this rainfall in Haiti, the southwestern Dominican Republic, and eastern Cuba.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and large and destructive waves could raise water levels by as much as the following amounts above normal tide levels.

Southern Coast of Cuba east of Cabo Cruz: 7 to 11 feet
South Coast of Haiti: 7 to 10 feet
Northern Coast of Cuba east of Camaguey: 4 to 6 feet
Jamaica: 2 to 4 feet
Gulf of Gonave in Haiti: 3 to 5 feet
Southern coast of the Dominican Republic: 1 to 3 feet
The Bahamas: 10 to 15 feet

Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. Large waves generated by Matthew will cause water rises to occur
well in advance of and well away from the track of the center.

SURF: Swells generated by Matthew will continue to affect portions of the coasts of Hispaniola, Jamaica, eastern Cuba, and the Caribbean coastline of Central America during the next few
days. Swells from Matthew will begin affecting portions of the Bahamas on Tuesday. These swells are likely to cause life- threatening surf and rip current conditions.

 

Robert Millette

 

 

Major Hurricane Matthew

Major Hurricane Matthew remains a Category 4 storm.  Matthew is moving toward the northwest near 5 mph and this general motion is expected to continue today, followed by a turn toward the
north tonight.  On the forecast track, the center of Matthew will approach southwestern Haiti and Jamaica on Monday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 150 mph with higher gusts.  Some fluctuations in intensity are possible during the next couple of days, but Matthew is expected to remain a powerful hurricane through Monday night.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles from the center, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205miles.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 947 millibars or 27.96 inches.

major hurricane matthew

Major Hurricane Matthew

The overall organization of the hurricane has changed little overnight, with the small eye remaining distinct in infrared satellite pictures, though a dry slot has been noted between the eye wall and the outer bands in the South portion of the storm.

Hurricane Matthew

Model Analysis

Matthew has been moving slowly west-northwestward during the past few hours.  Matthew should move slowly northwestward today, and then turn northward tonight as a mid- to upper-level trough develops over the eastern Gulf of Mexico.  This motion will take Matthew towards Jamaica, western Haiti, and eastern Cuba over the next couple of days.  After that time, the global models bend Matthew back toward the north-northwest between the aforementioned trough and a developing ridge off the northeast United States coast.

The dynamical models are in good agreement on this scenario through 72 hours, with increasing spread thereafter.  The GFS, ECMWF, and UKMET are along the western side of the guidance at days 4 and 5, while the HWRF is along the eastern side.  The latest NHC track is close to the model consensus through day 3, but is west of the consensus at 96 and 120 h, to be closer to the typically better performing global models.

Matthew is likely to interact with the land masses of Jamaica, Cuba, and Hispaniola, leading to some weakening and disruption of the storm structure.  After this time, The upper-level wind environment is expected to remain favorable over the Bahamas, and warm waters in that area should allow Matthew to maintain much of its intensity and strengthen while it moves over that area later in the forecast period.

Watches and Warnings

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for Jamaica,  Haiti, and the Cuban provinces of Guantanamo, Santiago de Cuba, Holguin, Granma, and Las Tunas

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for the Cuban province of Camaguey, the Southeastern Bahamas, including the Inaguas, Mayaguana, Acklins, Crooked Island, and Long Cay, and the Turks and Caicos Islands

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the Dominican Republic from Barahona westward to the border with Haiti

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for the Dominican Republic from Puerto Plata westward to the border with Haiti

Hurricane Hunters

The Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate Major Hurricane Matthew this morning, with the data found below.   Although some weakening is predicted during the next couple of days, Matthew is expected to remain a powerful hurricane when it approaches the islands of the Greater Antilles in a couple of days.

 

Robert Millette

Hermine continues to slam the East Coast

Hermine, still a tropical storm, is moving toward the northeast near 22 mph, and this general motion is expected to continue with some decrease in forward speed through Saturday night. A gradual turn toward the north is expected on Sunday.  On the forecast track, the center of Hermine will continue to move across eastern North Carolina during the next several hours and emerge over the Atlantic later today.  Maximum sustained winds remain near 60 mph with higher gusts.  Strengthening is forecast after the center moves over water, and Hermine could be near hurricane intensity by Sunday.  Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 185 miles mainly to the south and east of the center.   The estimated minimum central pressure is 997 mb.Hermine

 

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT FOR TROPICAL STORM HERMINE:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for…

Surf City, North Carolina to Sandy Hook, New Jersey, including Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds, Chesapeake Bay from Drum Point southward, the Tidal Potomac from Cobb Island eastward and  Delaware Bay

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for…

North of Sandy Hook, New Jersey to west of Watch Hill, Rhode Island, including Long Island.

 

Tropical storm conditions will continue to spread northward within the warning area along the Atlantic coast through Sunday.  Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area by
late Sunday or Sunday night.   The combination of a storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline.  There is a danger of life-threatening inundation during the next 24 hours in the Hampton Roads area as a storm surge of 3-5 feet comes ashore.  Persons within this area should take all necessary
actions to protect life and property from rising water.  There is also the possibility of life-threatening inundation during the next 48 hours at most coastal locations between the North Carolina/Virginia border and Bridgeport, Connecticut as storm tides of 2-4 feet come ashore.  These tides will combine with expected rainfall accumulations of 4-7 inches from Southeastern Virginia and Atlantic Coastal Maryland and may contribute to additional flooding.

Storm surge Hampton Roads storm surge New york Philly New England

Hermine is beginning to undergo an extra tropical transition, but once back over open waters, may redevelop her tropical characteristics and should approach Hurricane Strength off the Delmarva while south of New England.   Areas north of Virginia under a Tropical Storm Warning or Watch should prepare for conditions to worsen throughout the weekend, as should coastal areas of Massachusetts and Rhode Island.

Tropical Storm Watches Issued

Tropical

Tropical Storm Watch Issued for North Carolina

The Tropical Atlantic has become very active with 2 Tropical Depressions developing in the last day close to the Southeast Coastline, one near Florida and the other threatening North Carolina.  Hurricane Gaston also quickly intensified into a category 3 Hurricane but remains no threat to land.  NOAA aircraft are scheduled to investigate both Tropical Depressions today.

Major Hurricane Gaston

Gaston

Gaston remains a well organized hurricane and current satellite images indicate that the eye remains quite distinct with deep convection around it.  The upper-level outflow is well  established both to the west and the east of the system providing good outflow at the top of the system.  Maximum sustained winds are 120 MPH and the minimum central pressure has dropped to 957 millibars as Gaston continues to strengthen slightly.

Gaston has not moved very little during the last several hours and should remain generally stationary overnight and Monday. Gaston remains in weak steering currents caused by a blocking mid-level ridge to its northwest.  A trough that is currently over eastern Canada is expected to dampen by the time it nears Gaston, but it should be strong enough to erode the ridge and allow the hurricane to become embedded in the mid-latitude westerlies. This pattern change should result in Gaston’s turning east-northeastward continuing in that direction through the remainder of the forecast period.

The atmospheric conditions suggest that Gaston could maintain its strength for the next day or so, however, given the expected slow motion of the cyclone there is some chance that cold water upwelling would counteract that.  Beyond that time, the hurricane is likely to encounter an environment of increasing shear, drier air, and cooler water. Given these expected conditions, Gaston should begin to weaken on Monday.

Tropical Depression 8, Tropical Storm risk for North Carolina

Tropical Storm Watches have been issued for the coast of North Carolina from Cape Lookout to Oregon Inlet.

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Satellite imagery shows that Tropical Depression Eight is currently comprised of a swirl of low-level clouds accompanied by minimal shower activity.  This structure is due to the impacts of 20-25 kt
of southeasterly vertical wind shear and abundant mid- to upper-level dry air seen in water vapor imagery. Maximum sustained winds are currently 35 MPH and the minimum central pressure is 1010 millibars.
The initial motion is West to Northwest at 10 MPH.  For the next 48 hours, the depression is expected to move west-northwestward to northwestward toward a weakness in the subtropical ridge near the North Carolina coast.  After that time, a mid-latitude shortwave trough moving through the northeastern United States is forecast to erode the ridge and cause the cyclone to recurve Northeastward into the westerlies.  The track guidance is in good agreement with this scenario, and the new track forecast lies near the consensus models through 48 hours which would bring the storm within 35 nautical miles of Cape Hatteras.

Wind shear is expected to decrease during the next 48 hours and  depression 8 is expected to move into a more moist environment.  Based on this, the intensity guidance is showing
strengthening as the system approaches the coast of North Carolina. The intensity forecast also shows some strengthening, but it is on the low side of the guidance envelope due to uncertainty about
whether the environment will become as favorable as the models are suggesting.   Depression 8 is expected to recurve but with such a small distance between its expected location and the coast landfall as a tropical system is certainly not out of the question.

Tropical Depression 9

Depression 9

Flight-level wind data from an earlier NOAA reconnaissance mission along with WSR-88D Doppler radar data from Key West indicate that the depression had been moving southwestward.  However, the most recent radar data and nearby surface observations suggest that the cyclone has now turned toward the west. The last reliable wind data from the NOAA WP-3 recon aircraft supported an intensity of 35 MPH, and that intensity is being maintained for this advisory given that the radar and satellite signatures haven’t improved. The central pressure of 1007 mb is based on a reliable observation from ship WMKN, located just north of the center.

The initial motion estimate is to the West at 9 MPH. Now that deep convection has waned, the system has turned westward and this motion is expected to continue for the next 24 hours or so. This short term motion is supported by NOAA recon dropsonde data, which indicated that 500 mb heights were 10-20 meters higher over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico than what the global models have been forecasting. After that time, the global and regional models are in surprisingly good agreement on the cyclone slowing down and turning toward the west-northwest and then northward in the 36- to 48-hour periods as the depression moves around the western periphery of a narrow subtropical ridge that is expected to be located over South Florida. By 72 hours and beyond, the tropical cyclone is forecast to lift out and accelerate to the northeast towards Western Florida coast.  The current forecast Track brings the system on shore North of Tampa.

Strong vertical shear that has been inhibiting this system for the past week is expected to gradually subside to less than 15 MPH in 18-24 hours, which should allow for more organized convection
to develop. However, the southerly low-level inflow will still be disrupted by the terrain of western Cuba.  By 36 hours and beyond, the depression will moving over SSTs greater than 30C and the light vertical wind shear is expected to back around from a northerly to a southwesterly direction, which usually favors more significant intensification. However, there is  lot of dry air in the region north of Key West and this will play a factor in preventing rapid intesnfication of this system.

Robert Millette

Staff Meteorologist

Firsthand Weather

Tropical Storm Colin forms

Tropical Storm Colin has been named in the Gulf of Mexico as he strengthened this afternoon.

Tropical Storm

Tropical Storm Warnings remain in effect from Indian Pass to Englewood Florida.  Colin’s winds are now 40 miles per hour with a minimum central pressure of 1003 millibars.  Colin is currently 460 miles Southwest of Tampa and is moving north at 9 miles per hour.  It is possible that the Warning area may be expanded along the Southeast coast towards Pensacola if Colin’s wind field continues to expand.  The west coast of Florida should experience a storm surge of 1-3 feet from Indian Pass to Tampa Bay with 1-2 feet expected south of Tampa Bay to Florida Bay.  Heavy surf and some minor coastal flooding are expected but the main storm surge should occur away from the time of high tide and that will help mitigate the damage.

Tropical Storm Watches have now been issued from Altamaha Sound in Georgia to the Flagler/Volusia County line in Florida.  These areas should expect Tropical Storm conditions late Monday into Tuesday.  Colin is not expected to weaken much as he crosses Florida as his forward speed will make the journey across the state in less than 10 hours.

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Rain will be heavy throughout the area, with 3 to 5 inches expected across the region.  Locally heavier amounts are possible where tropical downpours train over the same area.  There is a risk of tornadoes throughout the Central and Northern Florida region extending into Southern Georgia.

Areas along the coast further into the Carolinas should pay attention to this system as it moves closer as heavy rain is possible in this area.  This could exacerbate existing conditions and cause additional flooding.

Firsthand Weather will continue to keep an eye on Colin and should have another article out in the morning bringing you the latest in information as this system approaches Florida.

Robert  Millette

Staff Meteorologist

Firsthand Weather