Tropical Update: Hurricane Newton and Hermine

Tropical Weather is still the major driving topic of conversation despite some snow in the Mountain west, as the Desert Southwest braces for the very rare Tropical Storm.  Hurricane Newton is bearing down on Mainland Mexico after crossing Baja California Sur.  Hermine continues to be a problem for the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic and much further east in the Atlantic, a new Tropical wave has moved off the African coast and bears watching for development of the 10th Tropical Depression of the Season, which seems possible by the weekend.

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Hurricane Newton

Hurricane Newton has gone from the Pacific into the Gulf of California and is moving Northward at about 15 mph.  Hurricane Warnings are up in Mexico from Guymas to Puerto Libertad.  Newton will move through this area and continue north into Arizona.  Tropical Storm conditions are possible in both Arizona and New Mexico as Newton moves north.  Newton is a large cyclone with Tropical Storm force winds extend 230 miles from the center of circulation, and these conditions will affect portions of northwestern Mexico and southeastern Arizona during the next day or so.  While much of the rain will fall in Mexico, 1-3 inches with locally higher amounts is possible in both Arizona and New Mexico as Newton continues inland.  This could create localized flash flood conditions and create very dangerous conditions for mudslides in the mountains.  Newton won’t survive for too long in the dry arid conditions currently seen in the Southeast, and is expected to have dissipated in 36 to 48 hours.

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Post Tropical Cyclone Hermine

Hermine, a quickly decaying Post Tropical Cyclone, has once again begun to turn back towards Long Island and is expected to pass the Eastern Tip of the Island later on today.  All Tropical Storm Warnings associated with Hermine have been cancelled as most of the Tropical Storm conditions are now to the South and East of the center of circulation, but Hermine will still bring some gusty winds and rain showers to Southeastern New England and Long Island Wednesday and Thursday as the center passes near Nantucket.  There will be some sunshine mixed into the area, like there was today, as Hermine has ingested large amounts of dry air which is helping to break up the cloud cover some, but as occurred today at my house, the sun can be out one minute and then rain and winds can be there within a matter of minutes.  The NHC is no longer posting information about Hermine on their site, but we at Firsthand Weather will continue to follow the system until she poses no further risk to land.

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Tropical Atlantic Update

A tropical wave located over the far eastern Atlantic Ocean just west of the coast of Africa is producing disorganized showers and a few thunderstorms.  A low pressure area is expected to form in
association with the wave several hundred miles west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands in a couple of days.  Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for gradual development,
and a tropical depression could form by the weekend while the system moves west-northwestward to northwestward toward the central Atlantic.

 

Robert Millette

Firsthand Weather Tropical Update

Tropical Depression Fiona, currently about 543 nm northeast of the Leeward Islands is still working her way east while 2 Tropical waves  look like they have the potential to develop over the coming week give Firsthand Weather plenty to watch in the Atlantic.

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Water temperatures in the Atlantic are very warm ahead of these systems with temperatures in the low to mid 80’s spanning the coast from Florida up towards Virginia Beach.  These warm waters extend well out into the Atlantic along the Gulf Stream, which is bringing water as high as the upper 70’s along the New Jersey and Long Island New York coastlines.  The drop off to colder waters, around the low 70’s, doesn’t really happen until you get up to around Massachusetts, where the Gulf Stream moves further off shore, but water temperatures above 82 degrees exist not too far South from New England, which could help prevent a storm from weakening too much as it heads North.

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Tropical Depression Fiona

Fiona has weakened into a Tropical Depression today as deep convection continues to sputter near her center.  Each successive burst has been a little smaller and less organized than the
previous ones that sheared off in the strong westerly upper-level winds.  Given that earlier scatterometer data only showed a few 40 mph winds, the decrease in convective organization since that time leaves maximum sustained winds at 35 mph.  Fiona continues to weaken at this hour due to 35 mph wind shear from the west and mid-level dry air impacting the system.  Fiona may devolve  into a remnant low in the next day or two but additional strengthening is expected after that as the wind shear is expected to greatly weaken as the atmosphere moistens to the west.  If Fiona manages to maintain her tropical characteristics during this time period, it is possible that she could once again become a tropical storm near the end of the week as she passes to the Southeast of Bermuda.

Tropical Depression Fiona

Tropical Waves

In the Central Atlantic, a tropical wave is pushing west toward the Lesser Antilles.  This system is producing limited and disorganized showers and thunderstorms as dry air near the system continues to inhibit the waves development.  Environmental conditions are expected to be come more conducive for development as the wave approached Hispaniola and the Southern and Central Bahamas later this week.

Another tropical wave is located about 300 miles South of the Cape Verde Islands.  This wave is continues to show signs of development and is forecast to become a Tropical Depression in the next couple of days.  Environmental conditions will remain favorable for the next several days as this system moves West over the Eastern Tropical Atlantic.