Tornado Outbreak expected in Southeast

A significant Tornado outbreak and Severe Thunderstorm outbreak is expected across many areas in the Southeast, from Florida back into Alabama up through Georgia, South Carolina and parts of North Carolina.    The biggest risk is from northern Florida into Southern Georgia with smaller risks as far west as Eastern Mississippi up into Southern Virginia.

Tornado Outbreak forecast

Significant Severe Tornadoes expected

Tornado Outbreak
Day 1 Tornado Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
SIG SEVERE 95,336 13,200,743 Columbia, SC…Charleston, SC…

St. Petersburg, FL…Orlando, FL…

Savannah, GA…Gainsville, FL

30 % 52,311 4,824,800 Jacksonville, FL…Tallahassee, FL…

Savannah, GA…Gainesville, FL…

Albany, GA…

15 % 44,337 9,370,344 Tampa, FL…St. Petersburg, FL…

Columbia, SC…Clearwater, FL…

Charleston, SC…

10 % 42,022 5,926,863 Orlando, FL…Columbus, GA…

Fayetteville, NC…Wilmington, NC…

Lakeland, FL…

5 % 81,803 21,852,295 Charlotte, NC…Atlanta, GA…

Miami, FL…Raleigh, NC…

Greensboro, NC…

2 % 48,102 6,722,417 Virginia Beach, VA…Norfolk, VA…

Birmingham, AL…Chesapeake, VA…

Winston-Salem, NC…

High Risk issued for Severe Weather

Categorical Day1 1300Z Outlook
Day 1 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
HIGH 52,325 4,828,034 Jacksonville, FL…Tallahassee, FL…

Savannah, GA…Gainesville, FL…

Albany, GA…

MODERATE 44,236 9,345,964 Tampa, FL…St. Petersburg, FL…

Columbia, SC…Clearwater, FL…

Charleston, SC…

ENHANCED 54,540 8,455,690 Orlando, FL…Columbus, GA…

Cape Coral, FL…Fayetteville, NC…

Port St. Lucie, FL…

SLIGHT 68,779 19,272,935 Charlotte, NC…Atlanta, GA…

Miami, FL…Raleigh, NC…

Greensboro, NC…

MARGINAL 58,080 13,692,306  

Virginia Beach, VA….

Norfolk, VA…

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

A strengthening mid and upper level trough currently over Texas and Oklahoma will shift eastward into Mississippi and Alabama by this afternoon with a cold front surging east from Louisiana and Mississippi.    This storm will deepen and move north-northeastward across Alabama and Georgia.  Dewpoints ahead of this cold front are already in the 65 to 70 degree range with very buoyant air present.  The net result of these factors will be the potential for a significant tornado outbreak today.

Severe Weather is currently taking place across parts of Alabama, Georgia and Florida and a Tornado Watch is in effect until 10 AM EST.  Cluster of severe storms remain from the overnight hours and the storm environment remains favorable for supercell development.  A few tornadoes are likely and they could be intense.  Damaging winds and Large hail are also possible with these storms.

Additional watches should be expected during the day today.

While the current storms across Georgia are present, the main risk does not occur until later this morning, when thunderstorm activity will begin again over Southern Alabama and the Florida panhandle.  These storms will the spread east-northeast across Florida and Georgia through the day.  Long tracked, strong tornadoes will be possible in fast moving supercells, in addition to damaging winds and large to very large hail.  The severe risk will spread northeastward into the Carolinas this evening as the system moves toward the Southern Appalachians.  Tornadic supercells could continue to occur in south Carolina and Southern North Carolina during the overnight hours.

Further South, the cold front will reach the remainder of Florida later this evening and overnight and bring the risk of severe thunderstorms and a few tornadoes.

Any and all preparations for this event should be concluded by early this afternoon.   This will be a very dangerous situation for many people.   Please be prepared and ready at a moments notice.   We here at Firsthand Weather will do our best to be with you every step of the way this afternoon but keep your weather radios handy and pay attention to your local news broadcasts for updates on warnings that occur.    Facebook likes to prevent you from seeing our page if we post a lot of posts, as we likely will this afternoon.   To see what we are writing, you will need to go directly to our facebook pages and website, please do not count on your newsfeed to give you our information.

 

Robert Millette

 

Severe weather risk for the Upper Midwest

Severe weather is currently active over the Northern Plains with a tornado watch and multiple severe thunderstorm watches active this evening.

Summary

A potent shortwave trough is moving across the Northern Plains this afternoon and is expected to move towards the Upper Mississippi Valley by Friday.  Currently, the greatest threat for severe weather exists from the  Black Hill region of the Dakotas East and Southeast across the Mid-Missouri Valley.  Strong and damaging wind gusts, very large hail and a few tornadoes are expected.   Multiple Mesoscale Convective systems from these severe storms will continue to progress further East from the Midwest down to the Carolinas  and Georgia.

severe outlook

Day 1 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
MODERATE 35,708 282,582 Mitchell, SD…Pierre, SD…Yankton, SD…Vermillion, SD…
ENHANCED 90,604 4,130,773 Nashville, TN…Des Moines, IA…Sioux Falls, SD…Clarksville, TN…Sioux City, IA…
SLIGHT 214,768 10,921,413 Omaha, NE…Lexington-Fayette, KY…Lincoln, NE…Savannah, GA…Cedar Rapids, IA…
MARGINAL 372,120 43,514,822 Columbus, OH…Memphis, TN…Charlotte, NC…Kansas City, MO…Cleveland, OH…

Tornado Watch Active

tornado outlook

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A TORNADO WATCH FOR

Northern Nebraska, Western South Dakota and Far Northeast Wyoming until 10 PM CDT.

 

A few more tornadoes are likely with a couple of intense tornadoes possible.  Currently, there is an active Tornado Warning for a tornado on the ground in cherry County Nebraska.  Widespread Large hail and isolated very large hail to 3.5 inches in diameter likely and widespread damaging winds likely with isolated gusts to 80 MPH possible.

Intense thunderstorms, including Supercells and Supercell clusters have formed over the watch area and are moving towards the Eastern portion of the watch area.  South of this watch area, the Tornado risk is much smaller and a Severe Thunderstorm Watch is in effect until 10 PM CDT.  Squall line development is expected from the storms further north in the Tornado watch area.  This squall line will move into Central and Southern Nebraska and move toward the Southeastern and Eastern portions of this watch area.

tornado outlook

Further North,   a line of storms from Montana has moved into the Dakotas.  The severe thunderstorm watch for this area is slowly being cancelled from west to East but remains in effect for the Western Dakotas until 9 PM CDT.

 

Severe Thunderstorm Watches are in effect for a small portion of Central Tennessee, this watch should be cancelled shortly.

 

Thursday Severe Risk

severe outlook

Day 2 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
ENHANCED 120,618 9,748,278 Minneapolis, MN…Des Moines, IA…Cedar Rapids, IA…Springfield, IL…Peoria, IL…
SLIGHT 206,214 34,063,611 Chicago, IL…Indianapolis, IN…Milwaukee, WI…Omaha, NE…St. Louis, MO…
MARGINAL 347,083 42,004,487 Detroit, MI…Columbus, OH…Charlotte, NC…Nashville, TN…Kansas City, MO…

A complex setup is set for Thursday with multiple rounds of convection expected across a large region.  Clusters of severe thunderstorms will be likely within a Mesoscale Convective System over Iowa and  Southern Minnesota.  Downstream of this area, dew points  in the 70s will combine with daytime heating to form a moderately to strongly unstable air mass through the day. This set up should yield multiple clusters of intensifying storms from the late morning into the afternoon across parts of the Midwest.

In the wake of the morning activity, low level moisture should return on the Southwesterly flow underneath the elevated mixed layer.  Moderate to extreme mid-level cape could help generate another mesoscale convective system Thursday evening in the Iowa, Missouri, Illinois border area.

Farther north, strong mid-level winds associated with the trough will overspread Minnesota where strong instability already exists.  While instability does decrease the further north you go, scattered to widespread storms should form mid-afternoon to early evening.  Deep shear will be sufficient for organized strong clusters and embedded supercells.  Large hail and strong winds will be the primary risks.

Robert Millette

Staff Meteorologist

Firsthand Weather

 

 

 

Major severe risk across Ohio Valley

A moderate severe risk will bring widespread Damaging Wind gusts in excess of 70 miles per hour along with tornadoes and isolated large hail are expected this afternoon and evening from Northeast Iowa into extreme Southern Wisconsin, Northern Illinois, Southwest Michigan, North and Central Indiana and Western Ohio.  The wind damage threat will affect the Upper Ohio Valley Late this evening into the Central Appalachian Mountains during the overnight period. 

severe risk

Day 1 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
MODERATE 50,489 17,159,246 Chicago, IL…Fort Wayne, IN…Aurora, IL…Dayton, OH…Rockford, IL…
ENHANCED 75,211 14,071,627 Indianapolis, IN…Columbus, OH…Pittsburgh, PA…Toledo, OH…Cincinnati, OH…
SLIGHT 114,349 25,466,262 Detroit, MI…Baltimore, MD…Milwaukee, WI…Washington, DC…Cleveland, OH…
MARGINAL 242,590 39,815,217 Philadelphia, PA…Charlotte, NC…Nashville, TN…Virginia Beach, VA…Minneapolis, MN…

A belt of stronger westerly winds will persist across the northern tier states including the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley.  There is a shortwave trough embedded within the stronger winds aloft.  This trough will move from Northern North Dakota to the Upper Great Lakes by this evening.  This trough, along with a surface low over Nebraska.  A warm front extends from this low through Southern Iowa and Southern Iowa into Southern Indiana.  This warm front will move north into Northern Illinois today as the low moves into Eastern Iowa this afternoon. 

Strong storms from this morning, which had prompted several Severe Thunderstorms this morning, shifted southeastward along the convectively enhanced warm front.  This movement was in response to a strong southwesterly low level jet stream.  As the Warm front moves north, moist low level air will bring dew points into the 70s from the Mid-Mississippi Valley to the Ohio Valley.  Storms will develop in the vicinity of and north of this warm front with supercells being the primary initial mode of storm.  Very Large Hail will be likely with the initial storms. 

Colin4

Day 1 Hail Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
SIG SEVERE 25,480 10,316,848 Chicago, IL…Aurora, IL…Rockford, IL…Naperville, IL…Joliet, IL…
30 % 12,213 4,222,164 Aurora, IL…Rockford, IL…Naperville, IL…Joliet, IL…Elgin, IL…
15 % 90,996 18,409,308 Chicago, IL…Indianapolis, IN…Minneapolis, MN…St. Paul, MN…Fort Wayne, IN…
5 % 191,529 34,507,995 Detroit, MI…Columbus, OH…Milwaukee, WI…Cleveland, OH…Raleigh, NC…

 

There is a significant risk of Tornadoes with these storms, especially across Northeastern Iowa, Southern Wisconsin and Northern Illinois west of Chicago.  But the risk extends across the Ohio Valley into the Appalachians into the overnight hours. 

tornado outlook

Day 1 Tornado Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
SIG SEVERE 24,082 6,403,348 Aurora, IL…Rockford, IL…Naperville, IL…Joliet, IL…Elgin, IL…
10 % 41,673 13,277,336 Chicago, IL…Aurora, IL…Rockford, IL…Naperville, IL…Joliet, IL…
5 % 71,076 14,627,057 Indianapolis, IN…Columbus, OH…Milwaukee, WI…Toledo, OH…Cincinnati, OH…
2 % 105,218 19,386,926 Detroit, MI…Cleveland, OH…Pittsburgh, PA…Lexington-Fayette, KY…Akron, OH…

 

Storms will grow upscale into a fast moving mesoscale convective system and Derecho.  The primary threat across the Ohio Valley into the Southern Great Lakes will be strong and damaging straight line winds.  Conditions appear favorable for a swath of significant damaging winds during the late afternoon and early evening. 

severe watch

Day 1 Wind Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
SIG SEVERE 82,916 22,731,124 Chicago, IL…Indianapolis, IN…Columbus, OH…Cincinnati, OH…Fort Wayne, IN…
45 % 51,341 17,323,133 Chicago, IL…Columbus, OH…Fort Wayne, IN…Aurora, IL…Dayton, OH…
30 % 75,230 13,798,843 Indianapolis, IN…Pittsburgh, PA…Toledo, OH…Cincinnati, OH…Akron, OH…
15 % 114,507 25,961,856 Detroit, MI…Baltimore, MD…Milwaukee, WI…Washington, DC…Cleveland, OH…
5 % 241,275 39,436,728 Philadelphia, PA…Charlotte, NC…Nashville, TN…Virginia Beach, VA…Minneapolis, MN…

Robert Millette

Staff Meteorologist

Firsthand Weather

Forecast and Severe Outlook: Monday, May 9th

Southerly winds ahead of an upper system moving out of the central Rockies into the Great Plains are forecast to draw warm, moist air from the Gulf of Mexico supporting widespread showers and thunderstorms across the lower and central Great Plains into the lower and mid Mississippi valley Monday into Monday night. Some of these storms may be strong to severe, particularly from northeast Texas, southeast Oklahoma into Arkansas and northwest Louisiana, where the air mass is expected to become highly unstable as well.

The current Surface Analysis

Surface map us

Today’s National Forecast

Weather Forecast map

Moisture spreading further to the north is likely to focus along a slow moving frontal band supporting widespread moderate to locally heavy rainfall accumulations across portions of the lower Missouri and mid Mississippi valleys.

On Tuesday into early Wednesday, the previously noted upper system is forecast to weaken as it continues to track to the east. Organized showers and thunderstorms are expected to focus along the frontal boundary that will continue to extend from the mid Mississippi into the Ohio valley and Mid-Atlantic states.

Back to the west, a well-defined cold front is forecast to drop through the western U.S. this period, with below-average temperatures spreading south and east from the northern Rockies and High Plains. Moderate to heavy precipitation is likely to develop west of an organizing area of low pressure over the northern High Plains. Heavy rain accumulations are expected to center over eastern Montana, with heavy mountain snows over the ranges of southwestern Montana and northwestern Wyoming.

Current Severe Weather Outlook

Fire Weather Update

Fire Weather

Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
Critical 35,626 780,783 Las Cruces, NM…Roswell, NM…Hobbs, NM…Carlsbad, NM…Artesia, NM…

Critical Fire Weather area for portions of Eastern New Mexico and Far West Texas.

Severe Weather Analysis

Summary

Severe storms are forecast Monday into Monday night from parts of the Southern and Central Plains eastward into the Lower to Mid Missouri Valley, the Ozarks, and ArkLaTex region. Tornadoes and very large hail are possible across the region under the enhanced risk from Eastern Oklahoma and Northeastern Texas into Central Arkansas and Northern Louisiana.

Severe Outlook

Day 1 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
ENHANCED 67,531 4,070,056 Shreveport, LA…Little Rock, AR…Tyler, TX…Fort Smith, AR…Longview, TX…
SLIGHT 228,723 20,439,696 Dallas, TX…Oklahoma City, OK…Kansas City, MO…Omaha, NE…Tulsa, OK…
MARGINAL 203,583 16,544,671 Houston, TX…Memphis, TN…Fort Worth, TX…Arlington, TX…Pasadena, TX…

 

tornado risk

Day 1 Tornado Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
10 % 45,082 2,815,545 Shreveport, LA…Little Rock, AR…Tyler, TX…Fort Smith, AR…Longview, TX…
5 % 56,517 4,200,601 Tulsa, OK…Mesquite, TX…Broken Arrow, OK…Fayetteville, AR…Springdale, AR…
2 % 135,312 14,700,662 Dallas, TX…Fort Worth, TX…Oklahoma City, OK…Arlington, TX…Wichita, KS…

hail risk

Day 1 Hail Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
SIG SEVERE 73,480 8,648,809 Dallas, TX…Tulsa, OK…Plano, TX…Garland, TX…Shreveport, LA…
30 % 67,798 4,097,285 Shreveport, LA…Little Rock, AR…Tyler, TX…Fort Smith, AR…Longview, TX…
15 % 229,629 20,571,862 Dallas, TX…Oklahoma City, OK…Kansas City, MO…Omaha, NE…Tulsa, OK…
5 % 202,489 16,100,321 Houston, TX…Memphis, TN…Fort Worth, TX…Arlington, TX…Pasadena, TX…

Analysis

Strong heating over much of the region will combine with steep lapse rates aloft to result in strong instability from Eastern Texas into Eastern Oklahoma and Kansas as well as Western Arkansas. Southerly low-level flow will continue to bring moisture into the region as it did with yesterdays storms.  Dewpoints are forecast to reach the mid to upper 60s across the region.  Thunderstorms currently near the Red River will shift into Arkansas by this afternoon.  There is a risk of damaging winds and hail with these storms.

The outflow from the aforementioned storms should help to focus the areas of severe weather development later this afternoon when instability reaches its maximum. Wind Shear profiles will clearly favor the development of discrete supercells and support conditions for tornadoes.  The most likely area for tornadic development will be Eastern Oklahoma into West Central Arkansas southward across the ArkLaTex region.  Supercells may also develop farther south within the moist regions near Shreveport.  Convergence in this area will be weak but rapid moistening and weakening outflow boundaries may be enough to initiate discrete storms.

Further west, from Central Oklahoma into Central Kansas, severe storm chances are more conditional along the Dryline but some storms should develop in this area and large hail is the primary risk.

Further north along the weakening warm front, strong warm advection pushing north will result in destabilization from Missouri into Western Illinois. A few severe storms capable of large hail and possibly a tornado or 2 cannot be ruled out.

This Week’s Flood Risk

Flood Risk

Yesterday’s Storm Reports

storm reports 2

Robert Millette

Staff Meteorologist

Firsthand Weather

Severe Weather Update

Severe weather is forecast from South Central Texas up through Central Nebraska, Southwest Iowa and Western Missouri.  Very large hail and a few strong tornadoes are anticipated in the primary threat area from Central Kansas into Western Oklahoma beginning late this afternoon.

SEVERE

Day 1 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
ENHANCED 54,976 1,283,928 Topeka, KS…Enid, OK…Salina, KS…Manhattan, KS…Hutchinson, KS…
SLIGHT 116,764 6,492,921 Oklahoma City, OK…Kansas City, MO…Omaha, NE…Wichita, KS…Lincoln, NE…
MARGINAL 135,470 7,240,517 Fort Worth, TX…Tulsa, OK…Arlington, TX…Des Moines, IA…Grand Prairie, TX…

TORNADO

Day 1 Tornado Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
SIG SEVERE 28,279 270,045 Hays, KS…Great Bend, KS…Woodward, OK…Weatherford, OK…Clinton, OK…
10 % 36,238 441,164 Salina, KS…Hutchinson, KS…Dodge City, KS…Hays, KS…Great Bend, KS…
5 % 44,315 2,041,268 Wichita, KS…Topeka, KS…Olathe, KS…Lawrence, KS…Shawnee, KS…
2 % 56,703 3,837,823 Oklahoma City, OK…Kansas City, MO…Lincoln, NE…Overland Park, KS…Kansas City, KS…

HAIL

Day 1 Hail Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
SIG SEVERE 54,953 1,221,772 Topeka, KS…Enid, OK…Salina, KS…Manhattan, KS…Hutchinson, KS…
30 % 55,091 1,222,413 Topeka, KS…Enid, OK…Salina, KS…Manhattan, KS…Hutchinson, KS…
15 % 117,251 6,638,156 Oklahoma City, OK…Kansas City, MO…Omaha, NE…Wichita, KS…Lincoln, NE…
5 % 135,114 7,194,400 Fort Worth, TX…Tulsa, OK…Arlington, TX…Killeen, TX…Norman, OK…

— SEVERE WEATHER DISCUSSION —

Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected today forming along and in front of the dryline and low pressure system moving across the Central and Southern Plains.  Additional thunderstorms may form near a developing warm front over Kansas up into Nebraska and along the dryline in Western Texas

Large hail, Severe wind gusts and a few tornadoes are all possible.  A couple of these tornadoes may be strong especially during the later part of the afternoon and early evening as moisture advection increases.

Surface dewpoints are climbing into the 60s near the Red River.  Moisture advection ahead of the dryline and behind the warm front will continue throughout the day.  This advection, along with day time heating, will contribute to high CAPE values across much of the area.  The strongest shear seems confined to Western Oklahoma and Central Kansas.  Supercellular activity should be favored in this area.  Development should begin near the dryline but will shift east as outflow boundaries and cold pools begin to form.  This will allow activity in Northern Kansas and Southern Nebraska to last longer into the overnight hours after convection associated with the dryline diminishes.

Further south, scattered severe thunderstorms are expected to form along the dryline across portions of West Central Texas after the dryline begins to retreat.  Strong day time heating combined with an influx of moisture will help these storms develop very rapidly.  This activity will shift towards Northwest Texas during the overnight hours.  Large hail and isolated damaging wind gusts are the primary threats in this region.