Texas Size Hail Tomorrow!

Wednesday Afternoon/Evening: A potent upper-level low will trek across New Mexico on the day Wednesday. As the upper-level low moves into Texas, convection should begin to develop across western Oklahoma and western Texas along the dryline by early Wednesday afternoon (not much convection should occur across the Southern Plains prior to noon on Wednesday because of a relatively strong CAP in place).

Due to the plentiful daytime heating, deep moisture, decent shear and very cold temps aloft, rapid development and intense convection is likely after 4:00PM Central (west of I-35). The main threats initially will be very large hail (larger than baseballs). The tornado threat may increase near the I-35 corridor around 7:00PM Central as the lower-levels of the atmosphere become slightly more favorable to support tornadoes; however, at the same time, it appears the storm-mode should transition to more of a linear nature (not isolated)–which could hinder tornado potential. The damaging wind threat will increase across eastern Texas during the nighttime hours tomorrow. Regardless, there is a tornado threat tomorrow afternoon across Texas and Oklahoma.

The aforementioned variables has led the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) to place a large part of Texas and Oklahoma in a risk for severe thunderstorms. An enhanced risk extends from southern Kansas, through central/eastern Oklahoma, down into northern and central Texas. Surrounding the enhanced risk is a slight and marginal risk (see Fig. 1 & 2). The enhanced risk is where the most widespread and damaging thunderstorms are likely but severe weather is possible in and around the slight and marginal areas.

Fig. 1: SPC Thunderstorm Outlook

Fig. 2: NWS Fort Worth Explainer

The severe threat will shift east on Thursday and Friday. Matthew will have a detailed article outlining the severe threat for the South and Southeast, later tomorrow.