Tornadoes Possible From Louisiana To The Carolinas

Severe thunderstorms, including tornadoes, are possible across parts of the South and Southeast today into this evening (see Fig. 1 & 2). A potent shortwave digging into the Midwest, has allowed a surface low to develop along the Gulf–near Louisiana. This surface low is pulling in deep moisture into the South and Southeast, which will set the stage for severe thunderstorms.

Fig. 1: Thunderstorm outlook for Sunday (focus on AL)

Fig. 2: Thunderstorm outlook for Sunday (focus on SC)

At this hour, storms have already developed along a cold front across parts of Mississippi and Louisiana. As the cold front moves eastward, the storms should continue to gain intensity as the airmass ahead of the front becomes more unstable. It is likely that a complex of severe thunderstorms will ensue with isolated supercells (possibly with tornadoes) may develop out ahead of the main complex of thunderstorms. All modes of severe weather are possible: tornadoes, damaging winds, hail, lightning and flash flooding. The severe threat exists across southern Mississippi east into Alabama through the early afternoon hours before shifting eastward into Georgia and South Carolina later in the day (see Fig. 3 & 4).

Fig. 3: Future radar early Sunday afternoon

Fig. 4: Future radar late Sunday afternoon

The tornado threat exists from Louisiana north and eastward into the Carolinas (see Fig. 5). A few strong tornadoes are possible from southern Mississippi east through southern Alabama into Georgia. Make sure you have a plan in place in case a watch or warning is issued for your area.

Fig. 5: Tornado probability map