Forecast and Severe Outlook, Sunday, April 10th

A slight risk of significant hail across parts of Oklahoma and Texas later this afternoon leads the Severe Weather Forecast for the day as another storm makes its way with rain and snow in the Great Lakes.

The current Surface Analysis

Surface map us

Today’s National Forecast

Weather Forecast map

The persistent upper level trough over the eastern U.S. this past week is now starting to show signs of abating and flattening out. At the surface, the widespread freezing temperatures and record lows on Sunday morning will be followed by a gradual warm-up going into the beginning of the work week.  Cold weather is forecast to continue over the Northeast on Sunday before milder air arrives by Monday.

Areas from the southern Plains to the Midwest are forecast to get numerous showers and thunderstorms as a warm front lifts through on Sunday and the cold front pushes through Sunday night into Monday. The Storm Prediction Center is predicting some severe storms over parts of the southern Plains and extending to the Deep South for Sunday and Monday.  Heavy rainfall is also likely with some of these storms, with a couple inches of rainfall possible.

The upper level low near southern California is expected to continue weakening and become absorbed into the large scale flow aloft. Numerous showers and a few thunderstorms are likely from California to the Rockies, with the greatest rainfall totals expected near the windward sides of the major mountain ranges.  Snow is likely at the highest elevations during this time.  Farther to the north, dry conditions should continue through Monday over the Pacific Northwest and into Montana.

Current Model Analysis

6 hour model

High pressure builds in along the East coast as the storm that hit the Mid-Atlantic States moves out to sea south of New England. Temperatures will remain far below normal under this high pressure all the way down to the Gulf Coast and over to the Great Lakes region, which is again bracing for snow and rain.

Low pressure will move north of the lakes but the associated warm and cold fronts will bring plenty of precipitation down into the Ohio Valley with thunderstorms possible in the Central to Southern Plains. A second low pressure system over the Plain will meander throughout the region and keep general instability for the next day or 2.

Further West, Low pressure dominates the west coast with showers and thunderstorms the border with Mexico up through Southern Oregon. Temperatures will be well above normal in the Western half of the country and that will raise snowfall elevations dramatically though some snow will fall on the highest peaks.

18 hour model

By Sunday afternoon, the East coast should begin to warm up quickly under generally sunny skies and Southwesterly winds ahead of the approaching cold front.

Snow and rain will continue to develop along the Great Lakes region and Ohio Valley as thunderstorms become potentially severe over the Plains States.

In the West, showers will begin to dry up as they shift further east into the desert regions of Arizona with some shower activity still prevelent in the Mountains of California.

36 hour model

By early Monday, Warm temperatures ahead of the cold front should keep the precipitation moving into New York as mnostly rain though precipitation will begin as light snow and some freezing rain can’t be ruled out at the onset of the precipitation. Showers and Thunderstorms are again possible over the Central Plains and into the Tennessee and Ohio River Valleys. While the Rockies will see some spotty shower activity due to the aforementioned instability remaining in the region.

 

Current Severe Weather Outlook

***Critical Fire Weather Update***

Fire Weather

A strong West-Southwesterly mid-level flow will overspread the West Texas and Eastern New Mexico areas behind the Dryline. Deep mixing at all layers of the atmosphere will result in Relative humidity values between 8 and 18% across much of the area with sustained winds of 15-25 mph.  The most overlap between these meteorological conditions will likely exist over the Texas Trans –Pecos.  As such, a Critical Fire outlook has been issued for the area.

Severe Outlook

Day 1 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
SLIGHT 54,765 2,668,273 Oklahoma City, OK…Norman, OK…Wichita Falls, TX…Lawton, OK…Edmond, OK…
MARGINAL 159,219 14,655,576 San Antonio, TX…Fort Worth, TX…Kansas City, MO…Tulsa, OK…Arlington, TX…

***Severe Weather Analysis***

…SUMMARY…

 

Isolated Severe thunderstorms are possible late this afternoon into tonight across parts of Northwest Texas, Oklahoma, and Southeast Kansas and Missouri. Large Hail will be the primary threat but strong wind gusts and a tornado or two cannot be ruled out.

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***Analysis***

A Dryline will become well defined near the Eastern Texas Panhandle and Western Oklahoma into Southwest Texas. The cold front will trail this Dryline and be up into the far Northwest of Oklahoma into Southeast Kansas.  In the warm sector ahead of these features, Dewpoints will rise into the 60s and result in moderate instability.  Capping of this instability should occur and will remain in place until this afternoon when the lead impulse crosses the region this evening.  Continued moistening of the lower levels will lead to Widely Scattered thunderstorms across Northwest Texas and Southwestern Oklahoma.  Strong shear profiles should lead to somewhat discrete supercellular activity capable of producing large hail and the possibility for significant hail exists from Wichita Falls Texas Northeast to Oklahoma City to just East of Woodward Oklahoma down towards Childress Texas.  The best chances to see any tornadic activity will be within this region as low level flow increases with the approach of the Dryline and low level jet.

 

Thunderstorms should continue to develop northeastward along the cold front with hail as the primary threat as the cold front undercuts some the storms. A squall line or a few clusters will develop with strong winds possible into the overnight hours.

 

This Week’s Flood Risk

Flood Risk

Yesterday’s Storm Reports

No Storm Reports Received.