Forecast and Severe Outlook; Sunday, April 10th

Severe weather continues early this morning as Severe Thunderstorms continue to be produced by a convective complex of storms moving over Oklahoma.  This system will produce additional severe weather over a region from East Texas into Mississippi later today as it continues to move east.

The current Surface Analysis

Surface map us

Today’s National Forecast

Weather Forecast map

Warmer temperatures are arriving for the East Coast to start out the work week after the recent cold snap. The surface high pressure area that was over the eastern seaboard is now moving offshore and southerly flow on the backside of this high has commenced, thus advecting warmer weather northward.  By Tuesday, a cold front is forecast to reach the East Coast, but the cool-down behind this boundary will not be as significant as the last cold front.

Numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected along and ahead of the advancing cold front from the southern Plains to the Midwest. Conditions will be favorable for scattered strong to severe thunderstorms to develop through Monday evening, with the best concentration over Texas and Oklahoma. The area of concern on Tuesday will be closer to the Gulf Coast, but less in the way of severe thunderstorm coverage compared to Monday.  Heavy rainfall is also expected with these storms with Risk of 1 to 6 hour rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance in the following areas

Excessive rainfall

Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms are likely from California to the Rockies for early in the week, with the greatest rainfall totals expected near the windward sides of the major mountain ranges; with snow likely at the highest elevations. Much of this activity should be diurnally driven with the greatest activity during the afternoon and early evening hours.

Current Model Analysis

6 hour model

While high pressure off the east coast will begin to finally send some warmer air into the Northeast, another low pressure system in Canada will work its way east and bring some snow and rain to the Great Lakes and Mid-Atlantic regions this morning.

Severe weather is expected along the cold front trailing back into Texas as another low pressure system begins to develop along the front near the Texas panhandle. Severe storms continued overnight in portions of Texas, Oklahoma, Kansas and Missouri.

Further west, a weak broad low over the Rockies will continue to generate instability in the region and cause showers and snow showers from the Four Corners region over to the Pacific coast north into Wyoming, Idaho and Oregon.

18 hour model

By Monday afternoon, the cold front is moving east with severe weather shifting into East Texas through Arkansas, Missouri and Illinois into Kentucky and Indiana. While some snow may fall in Extreme Northern New England, this will be a mostly rain event for the area with rain moving in from the Northwest to Southeast. The weak low pressure system will not generate much in the way of strengthening but will help continue unstable conditions which will enhance the severe weather risk in East Texas and Oklahoma.

A cold High pressure system follows the low out of Canada and will bring some below normal temperatures to the Northern Plains for a bit while the overnight instability in the Rockies gives way to better weather during the afternoon, though a few showers can’t be ruled out throughout the Western U.S.

36 hour model

By early Tuesday, The low in Canada will be pulling Northeast as the cold front brings rain to the New England region back into New York down through New Jersey. Some wrap around snow will fall behind the front as precipitation changes with the drop in temperatures. The low along the southern end of the front will continue to weaken as it approaches the Atlantic coast but it will have plenty of gulf moisture to work with the help produce rain and thunderstorms from Louisiana to Florida up through Virginia and Southeastern Kentucky.

A cold high pushes into the Great Lakes region bringing below average temperatures and possibly a little lake effect snow off Lake Huron into Michigan. The western portion of the U.S is quiet with a few showers over the 4 Corners region.

Current Severe Weather Outlook

Fire Weather Update

Fire Weather

Severe Outlook

***Severe Weather Analysis***

…SUMMARY…

Severe Thunderstorms are likely across portions of Southeast Oklahoma and East Texas into parts of Arkansas, Louisiana, and Western Mississippi today and tonight. Large hail, damaging winds and a few tornadoes are all possible.

***Analysis***

Strong to severe storms ongoing axcross parts of Southern and Central Oklahoma Monday morning will result in uncertainty in the evolution of convection later this afternoon from Southeast Oklahoma into the ArkLaTex region.

Southerly low level flow will continue to transport gulf moisture northward and Dewpoints should rise into the mid-60s by this afternoon. The cold front will continue to move southward from near the Red River to Central Arkansas by late this afternoon.  This front, along with any outflow boundaries remaining from the overnight convective complex and the Dryline over East Texas will be the focus for the development of thunderstorms today.

Deep layer shear will favor supercell development with steep lapse rates leading to moderate to strong instability. This will help support very large hail along the cold front.  Numerous storms are expected in both the super cellular and convective cluster forms.  All type of severe weather hazards can be expected today though the extent of the tornado threat is a little lower due to the lack of convergence and weak low level winds near any of the primary boundaries.  Tornadoes cannot be ruled out however.

Storms will spread east across the lower Mississippi Valley where weaker instability and unidirectional shear profiles are expected. Clusters and squall lines will be possible with locally strong winds and some hail possible.

This Week’s Flood Risk

Flood Risk

Yesterday’s Storm Reports

Storm Reports