Forecast and Severe Outlook: Monday, May 2nd

Severe Weather is forecast in the Piedmont of the Carolina’s to the Mid-Atlantic as the system that brought a few tornadoes to Indiana yesterday moves east.  Meanwhile in Texas, showers and thunderstorms will continue to exacerbate the flooding problems across that region.

The current Surface Analysis

Surface map us

Today’s National Forecast

Weather Forecast map

A quasi-stationary front extending from the Mid-Atlantic and Central Appalachians southwestward to the Lower Mississippi Valley will slowly sag south and eastward to the Southern Mid-Atlantic to the Southeast and parts of the Eastern Gulf Coast by Tuesday evening. Showers and thunderstorms will develop along and ahead of the boundary from the Mid-Atlantic to the Southern Plains that will extend from the Northern Mid-Atlantic Coast to the Central Gulf Coast by Tuesday.  Rain will also develop over parts of the Great Lakes to the Northeast that will slowly move into Southeastern Canada by Tuesday afternoon.

Meanwhile, upper-level energy over Southern California will move slowly eastward to the Southern Plains by Tuesday. The energy will produce rain with embedded thunderstorms that will have a diurnal component to the areal coverage over parts of Central California to the Central and Southern Rockies that will end over the Region by Tuesday morning.  Another area of upper-level energy will move southward from the Northern Plains to the Southern Plains by Tuesday evening.  The energy will trigger rain over parts of the Northern Plains on Monday morning that will move southward to the Central High Plains by Tuesday morning.

Furthermore, a front moving southward out of Central Canada on Tuesday morning will move to parts of the Upper Great Lakes and Upper Mississippi Valley and Northern Plains by Tuesday evening.

Current Model Analysis

6 hour model

On Monday, one batch of rain moves out of the Northeast as another prepares to move in. Rain should stop for a time in New York and New England as the second batch comes through the Ohio Valley.  This system did produce a couple of Tornadoes on Sunday and brought several instances of severe weather across the Ohio Valley.  This risk will continue from Virginia down through the Gulf Coast along the cold front.

Showers and storms will continue to exacerbate the flooding issues down in Texas throughout the day though conditions will begin to dry out later in the forecast period.

High pressure will dominate the western half of the country but a couple of weak disturbances will be enough to generate some rain  and snow showers from the Pacific Coast into the 4 Corners region.

18 hour model

 

Monday afternoon, the rain shifts east and is now impacting the East coast from Florida to Maine within this broad circulation and along the cold front.  Areas near Dallas should begin to dry out as the front pulls east toward the coastline.  Rain and thunderstorms should be expected along the entire Gulf Coast and Eastern Seaboard at some point during the day.

High pressure will completely dominate the western half of the ountry Monday afternoon with only a few spot showers and a small batch of rain showers in the Dakotas associated with a weak low in Canada.

36 hour model

By early Tuesday, High pressure dominates the West with only the remnants of a cold front draped across the Country from Massachusetts to Coastal Louisiana. Low pressure in the Mid-Atlantic will continue to bring rain to nearly the entire East Coast.

Current Severe Weather Outlook

Fire Weather Update

Fire Weather

No critical fire weather expected

Severe Weather Analysis

Summary

A few severe storms are forecast today across the Appalachian Mountains and Piedmont of the Carolinas into the Mid-Atlantic region.

Severe Outlook

Day 1 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
SLIGHT 70,267 19,724,039 Baltimore, MD…Charlotte, NC…Washington, DC…Greensboro, NC…Durham, NC…
MARGINAL 155,209 27,778,806 Philadelphia, PA…New Orleans, LA…Virginia Beach, VA…Atlanta, GA…Raleigh, NC…

Analysis

Weak to moderate boundary layer destabilization is expected by this afternoon near and east of the lee surface trough from the Piedmont region of the Carolinas to the Mid-Atlantic. Moderate instability and strong southwesterly low and mid tropospheric winds are forecast to be sufficient for convective development.  These thunderstorms will be capable of producing damaging wind gusts and some hail.  Storm coverage east of the Appalachians is expected to become more widespread this afternoon with the approach of a upper level disturbance emerging from the west.

This Week’s Flood Risk

Flood Risk

Yesterday’s Storm Reports

storm reports 2

Robert Millette

Staff Meteorologist

Firsthand Weather