Severe Weather Update

Severe weather is forecast from South Central Texas up through Central Nebraska, Southwest Iowa and Western Missouri.  Very large hail and a few strong tornadoes are anticipated in the primary threat area from Central Kansas into Western Oklahoma beginning late this afternoon.

SEVERE

Day 1 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
ENHANCED 54,976 1,283,928 Topeka, KS…Enid, OK…Salina, KS…Manhattan, KS…Hutchinson, KS…
SLIGHT 116,764 6,492,921 Oklahoma City, OK…Kansas City, MO…Omaha, NE…Wichita, KS…Lincoln, NE…
MARGINAL 135,470 7,240,517 Fort Worth, TX…Tulsa, OK…Arlington, TX…Des Moines, IA…Grand Prairie, TX…

TORNADO

Day 1 Tornado Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
SIG SEVERE 28,279 270,045 Hays, KS…Great Bend, KS…Woodward, OK…Weatherford, OK…Clinton, OK…
10 % 36,238 441,164 Salina, KS…Hutchinson, KS…Dodge City, KS…Hays, KS…Great Bend, KS…
5 % 44,315 2,041,268 Wichita, KS…Topeka, KS…Olathe, KS…Lawrence, KS…Shawnee, KS…
2 % 56,703 3,837,823 Oklahoma City, OK…Kansas City, MO…Lincoln, NE…Overland Park, KS…Kansas City, KS…

HAIL

Day 1 Hail Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
SIG SEVERE 54,953 1,221,772 Topeka, KS…Enid, OK…Salina, KS…Manhattan, KS…Hutchinson, KS…
30 % 55,091 1,222,413 Topeka, KS…Enid, OK…Salina, KS…Manhattan, KS…Hutchinson, KS…
15 % 117,251 6,638,156 Oklahoma City, OK…Kansas City, MO…Omaha, NE…Wichita, KS…Lincoln, NE…
5 % 135,114 7,194,400 Fort Worth, TX…Tulsa, OK…Arlington, TX…Killeen, TX…Norman, OK…

— SEVERE WEATHER DISCUSSION —

Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected today forming along and in front of the dryline and low pressure system moving across the Central and Southern Plains.  Additional thunderstorms may form near a developing warm front over Kansas up into Nebraska and along the dryline in Western Texas

Large hail, Severe wind gusts and a few tornadoes are all possible.  A couple of these tornadoes may be strong especially during the later part of the afternoon and early evening as moisture advection increases.

Surface dewpoints are climbing into the 60s near the Red River.  Moisture advection ahead of the dryline and behind the warm front will continue throughout the day.  This advection, along with day time heating, will contribute to high CAPE values across much of the area.  The strongest shear seems confined to Western Oklahoma and Central Kansas.  Supercellular activity should be favored in this area.  Development should begin near the dryline but will shift east as outflow boundaries and cold pools begin to form.  This will allow activity in Northern Kansas and Southern Nebraska to last longer into the overnight hours after convection associated with the dryline diminishes.

Further south, scattered severe thunderstorms are expected to form along the dryline across portions of West Central Texas after the dryline begins to retreat.  Strong day time heating combined with an influx of moisture will help these storms develop very rapidly.  This activity will shift towards Northwest Texas during the overnight hours.  Large hail and isolated damaging wind gusts are the primary threats in this region.