Cool Front Sparking Thunderstorms

A cool front has sparked thunderstorms, which are ongoing across northwestern Oklahoma, northern Oklahoma, and much of southern Kansas. This activity will push towards the ESE during the late morning hours impacting many locations north of I-40. By the early afternoon hours, new thunderstorm activity should develop along an outflow boundary from this activity in eastern Oklahoma. This activity will also push towards the ESE and impact parts of Arkansas, northeastern Texas, and parts of Louisiana. A second area of storms should develop further west in central Oklahoma and northwestern Texas. This activity will move towards the ESE and impact far northern Texas and southern Oklahoma.

These storms will produce severe weather and heavy rainfall. The Storm Prediction Center has a slight risk of severe thunderstorms for much of Oklahoma today. Isolated flash flooding is possible, too, from today through Saturday. Much of northern Oklahoma will see 1-3″ with isolated higher amounts. I’ll have more details on Friday and Saturday’s forecast later today.
Slide02
SPC Thunderstorm Forecast (Thursday)
Slide03
Precipitation Forecast (Next Five Days)
Slide04
NAM Rainfall Forecast

The Southeast will see thunderstorms, too, due to a few shortwaves embedded in the pattern swinging across the area. Each shortwave that traverses across the area will generate thunderstorm activity. Current thunderstorm activity across Tennessee and northern Mississippi should continue today, and expand into northern Alabama.

Thunderstorm activity will increase for locations further east as a cool front pushes into parts of upstate South Carolina, northern Georgia, and northern Alabama by the weekend. Heavy rainfall is likely with any storm that develops as well as gusty winds. An isolated flash flood threat may develop across northern Georgia up through North Carolina where a band of 2-3″ of rainfall is likely.
Slide05
NAM Rainfall Forecast