Late Week Winter Weather (Southern Plains)?

The end of the upcoming week into the weekend needs to be monitored closely for the Southern Plains. This time period is still several days out, and as you all know, a lot will change; this is definitely a fluid forecast–as are most winter forecasts for the Texas and Oklahoma.

After a nice warming trend takes place through the work week, another arctic airmass will dislodge and move southward into the Plains. The movement of these airmasses is not forecast well with numerical guidance. The guidance tends to struggle with the movement as well as the temperatures associated with arctic airmasses. This will be an issue coming up by late in the week because as the airmass dives into Oklahoma, a potent upper level low will be positioned to the southwest of the Southern Plains.

This low will aid in precipitation chances, making the atmospheric temperature profile very crucial to evaluate. Will the precipitation remain all rain? Could there be frozen or freezing precipitation? That’s the million dollar question. Right now, it does appear some areas will see wintry precipitation by Friday, potentially lasting into the weekend. The modeled soundings show more of a freezing rain or sleet scenario due to a stout warm nose above our heads.

Again, this is several days out, but confidence is increasing that some areas will see wintry precipitation so I wanted to give you all a heads up on the potential event. Keep checking back for details. The map below is the area I am monitoring for the greatest chance to see wintry precipitation at this moment.