The first week of spring is coming in strong! Severe thunderstorms impacted much of the Tennessee Valley and Southeast today. More severe thunderstorm events are possible by the end of the week through the weekend for the Southern Plains and parts of the South.
Thursday Evening And Friday (Southern Plains)
By late Thursday, an upper-level trough will approach the Southern Plains. In response to the approaching trough, deep moisture will move into Texas and Oklahoma, and a dryline will begin to develop and sharpen across western Texas/Oklahoma. Thunderstorms should develop along the dryline and move towards the I-35 corridor overnight on Thursday. The storms should be pretty numerous overnight on Thursday into Friday morning due to no temperature inversion. This may actually influence Friday’s thunderstorms (more on that in a moment).
As the trough moves across the Southern Plains on Friday, the dryline will move towards the I-35 corridor or just east. Thunderstorms will likely redevelop along this boundary Friday afternoon, but the storms from Friday morning may limit instability. If storms are not as numerous Friday morning, or move out earlier than expected, then a higher severe threat would evolve–this will have to be monitored as we get closer to the event. Damaging winds and large hail appear to be the main threats at this point. The Storm Prediction Center does have a slight risk area for this time frame.
SPC’s 15% Contour Area (Friday Afternoon/Overnight)
Friday Night And Saturday (South/Southeast)
The storms that develop along the dryline Friday afternoon in northeast Texas/eastern Oklahoma will move towards the Arklatex–likely posing an enhanced damaging wind threat Friday night. It is possible this thunderstorm complex may survive into early Saturday morning and impact southern Arkansas, Louisiana, and western Mississippi.
Once the storms move out of the area, rich moisture should remain in place during the day on Saturday for the South. This coupled with deep shear and cold temperatures aloft should allow for severe thunderstorms to redevelop across Louisiana, Mississippi, and possible western Alabama. The Storm Prediction Center does have a slight risk area for this time frame.
SPC’s 15% Contour Area (Saturday)
Sunday (Southern Plains)
By Sunday, the Southern Plains may be at risk again to see severe thunderstorms. To me, this setup looks very impressive! Moisture should hang around the area through the weekend, which sets the stage for convection as another upper-level trough approaches the area. This trough will not be as impressive as the one on Friday, but the deep layer shear is impressive. Moisture will be much deeper, too, which should lead to a great amount of instability–energy (food) for the storms. Numerical guidance shows winds veering. Sunday has the best chance to see tornadic activity in my opinion if the moisture indeed is not scoured out with Friday’s system. The Storm Prediction Center does not have a slight risk area for this time frame, but this will likely change soon.
It should be noted, this is several days out, so a lot may change. Please keep checking back for updates.