Severe thunderstorms are possible across Texoma this afternoon and overnight. These storms may produce tornadoes, very large hail, and damaging winds. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has an enhanced risk of severe thunderstorms for the Oklahoma Counties of Texoma and a slight risk for the Texas Counties of Texoma (it should be noted there is a moderate risk northeast of Texoma).
SPC Thunderstorm Outlook
There are some uncertainties with the evolution of today’s thunderstorm event, so let’s get straight into the possibilities. By late this afternoon, a sharp dryline will establish itself just west of I-35 in Oklahoma and Texas. The atmosphere will be extremely unstable, thus, any storm that could develop along the dryline would likely produce softball sized hail and isolated tornadoes. However, there is a strong CAP in place at this hour. The CAP will continue to weaken as afternoon heating takes place. This could allow one or two storms to develop near the dryline in Texoma. This scenario, again, is very questionable due to the CAP but we will need to keep an eye on the dryline as it moves towards I-35 between 4:00PM-8:00PM. The latest short-range hi-res model (HRRR) is indicating the possibility of isolated convection developing along the dryline this afternoon.
HRRR Future Radar For This Afternoon
The more likely scenario is thunderstorms eventually developing across central/southern Oklahoma along a southward advancing cold front. This scenario is more likely because of the strong forcing associated with the front, which compromise the CAP. Thunderstorms that develop along the front will form into a southward moving complex that will likely produce damaging winds, hail, and isolated tornadoes across Texoma.
HRRR Future Radar For Tonight