Tropical Storm Cindy Information
The National Hurricane Center (NHC) has officially classified the low in the Gulf of Mexico as a Tropical Storm Cindy. This system has sustained winds of 45mph and is stationary–a continued northwest movement is expected overnight. Tropical Storm Warnings are in place for the entire coast of Louisiana and parts of the upper-Texas coast, which includes Houston, Texas. The areas in the Warning vicinity will see very heavy rainfall, dangerous sea conditions, gusty winds, and a storm surge threat where the tropical storm moves inland (more on the impacts below).
Projected path of the center of Cindy
What are the main threats and who will be impacted?
Large impacts are and will continue to be felt from the Florida Panhandle to the upper-Texas coast through much of the week. The biggest threat with Tropical Storm Cindy is heavy rainfall in these areas. The center of Cindy will likely intersect land in Texas, but due to environmental wind shear, the system is lopsided. Thus, much of the precipitation is well east of the center of Cindy. Coastal areas will see 8-14″ with locally much higher amounts (potentially isolated 14-24″ near the Louisiana and Mississippi coasts). Areas further inland across the Gulf states (parts of Florida, parts of Georgia, Alabama, Mississippi, Louisiana, southern Arkansas, and eastern Texas) will see heavy rainfall, too. The flooding threat will be enhanced for the inland areas of eastern Texas, Louisiana, and southern Arkansas Thursday into Friday as Cindy, then the remnants, move northward. The metro areas of Houston (especially the eastern side) and New Orleans will have an enhanced flash flooding threat due to the impervious surfaces throughout the metro. Dangerous and catastrophic flooding could be observed due to rainfall in coastal areas.
It should be noted, this system will stream deep moisture into parts of Georgia and South Carolina thus enhanced rainfall rates along a stalled boundary. Also, heavy rain may impact Tennessee and parts of the Southeast later in the week into the weekend as the remnants of Cindy move eastward.
Potential rainfall accumulations map through this week (NCEP)
Cindy landfall, and tornado and wind threat
The cyclonic flow around the low will also allow for sea water to ‘pileup’ causing flooding for areas just above sea-level for Louisiana and Texas through Thursday morning. The storm surge will be around 1-3 feet where Cindy intersects land, which is likely between Galveston, Texas and Port Arthur, Texas. This land intersection should be late Thursday morning. The latest NAM is showing a land intersection close to the Texas-Louisiana line, but this should occur about 25-50 miles west of this state lines per the NHC.
3km NAM predicted radar (shows Cindy landfall Thursday morning in Texas)
Right now, it appears Cindy will impact land as a moderate to strong tropical storm. Secondary threats are gusty winds between 30-60mph along the upper-Texas coast and western Louisiana coast and an isolated tornado threat for much of Louisiana and Mississippi.
Wind speed probability Map
Tornado potential tonight (greatest threat area outlined in pink)
Tornado potential Wednesday (greatest threat area outlined in pink)
Tornado potential Thursday (greatest threat area outlined in pink)
Please do not disregard the flood threat along the coastal regions of the Gulf, and do not cross roads that are covered in water. Updates will be provided throughout the week.