Heavy rainfall is likely for southern and coastal Texas and parts of coastal Louisiana through at least mid-week. A tropical wave and upper-level low will work in tandem to aid in tropical moisture streaming into the region as well as provide the lift to generate convection. At this hour, convection is moving into coastal Texas and coastal Louisiana from the Gulf of Mexico. This will continue throughout the day and coverage should increase once the convective temperature is met. At the same time, rainfall rates will increase and may exceed 1″ per hour. As the upper-level low moves closer to the Texas coast by mid-week, convection will convection will continue to move into the region from the Gulf as energy rotates around the low, and convection will move further inland into Texas.
Widespread rain totals of 3-5″ will occur cross coastal Texas with areas receiving 5-10″ from Corpus Christi to Beaumont–this includes Houston (isolated areas may see 10-15″ of rainfall). Western coastal Louisiana will see 2-4″. These rainfall amounts will lead to areas of flooding. This is especially true where training occurs since these tropical rainbands will produce 1-2″ per hour rainfall rates at times. At this time, there are no Flash Flood Watches in place, but with the heaviest rainfall expected on Tuesday and Wednesday, it is possible Flash Flood Watches will be issued later today. If you live in this area, please remain alert.
Remember: turn around don’t drown! Here is the latest precipitation map from the National Weather Service.