Sleet And Snow For Texas

Light wintry precipitation is possible across parts of north Texas and central Texas Friday midday into Friday night. Weak southwesterly flow (carrying moisture from the Pacific), coupled with a shortwave overhead will lead to the development of precipitation. Precipitation will develop across the Texas Hill Country and central Texas Friday morning (see Fig. 1) before lifting northward into north Texas by Friday afternoon (see Fig. 2). 

Fig. 1: Future radar Friday morning (please note: this is just to give a general idea of where precipitation will be Friday morning)
Fig. 2: Future radar Friday afternoon (please note: this is just to give a general idea of where precipitation will be Friday afternoon)

Initially, the precipitation will not reach the ground due to the cold front that pushed through the state this morning leaving behind very dry air near the surface. However, throughout the day on Friday, the atmosphere will moisten, leading to precipitation reaching the ground. While surface temperatures appear to be marginal for wintry precipitation, it is likely that the evaporation of the onset of precipitation will lead to cooling of the surface temperatures to near 32 degrees (see Fig. 3).

Fig. 3: Friday afternoon temperatures

Modeled soundings suggest central Texas and southern parts of north Texas (south of I-20) will see a rain & sleet mixture (see Fig. 4). North of I-20, modeled soundings show a profile supportive of light snow (see Fig. 5). With surface temperatures hovering near the 32 degree mark, it is likely accumulations will be minimal to non-existent. Another hindering factor for accumulations is the light nature of the precipitation. If a moderate burst of precipitation occurs, it is possible a quick slushy accumulation may occur in some areas. The best chance accumulations of sleet appears to be along and south of I-20 where the greatest moisture will reside (see Fig. 6).

Fig. 4: Modeled sounding central Texas Friday morning
Fig. 5: Modeled sounding north Texas Friday afternoon
Fig. 6: Wintry precipitation map

It is possible a rain/sleet mixture may move into northern Louisiana and southern Arkansas late Friday night. It is possible moisture may try to edge towards the southern counties of Oklahoma so this will need to be monitored. No accumulations are expected.