Light wintry precipitation is possible across parts of north Texas and central Texas Friday midday into Friday night. Weak southwesterly flow (carrying moisture from the Pacific), coupled with a shortwave overhead will lead to the development of precipitation. Precipitation will develop across the Texas Hill Country and central Texas Friday morning (see Fig. 1) before lifting northward into north Texas by Friday afternoon (see Fig. 2).
Initially, the precipitation will not reach the ground due to the cold front that pushed through the state this morning leaving behind very dry air near the surface. However, throughout the day on Friday, the atmosphere will moisten, leading to precipitation reaching the ground. While surface temperatures appear to be marginal for wintry precipitation, it is likely that the evaporation of the onset of precipitation will lead to cooling of the surface temperatures to near 32 degrees (see Fig. 3).
Modeled soundings suggest central Texas and southern parts of north Texas (south of I-20) will see a rain & sleet mixture (see Fig. 4). North of I-20, modeled soundings show a profile supportive of light snow (see Fig. 5). With surface temperatures hovering near the 32 degree mark, it is likely accumulations will be minimal to non-existent. Another hindering factor for accumulations is the light nature of the precipitation. If a moderate burst of precipitation occurs, it is possible a quick slushy accumulation may occur in some areas. The best chance accumulations of sleet appears to be along and south of I-20 where the greatest moisture will reside (see Fig. 6).
It is possible a rain/sleet mixture may move into northern Louisiana and southern Arkansas late Friday night. It is possible moisture may try to edge towards the southern counties of Oklahoma so this will need to be monitored. No accumulations are expected.
Christopher Nunley is Meteorologist on Firsthand Weather, Lecturer in the Department of Geosciences at Mississippi State University (MSU), and a PhD Candidate (Earth and Atmospheric Sciences) at MSU. He earned his M.S. in Applied Meteorology at MSU, was an Assistant Cross Country Coach and taught at the University of North Texas, and was a Broadcast Meteorologist at KTEN-TV (just north of Dallas, Texas). Christopher’s main focus lies within teaching and inspiring prospective meteorology students, atmospheric research to further our understanding of atmospheric processes, and forecasting and analyzing extreme weather events to help save lives!