Tropical Development In The Caribbean?

A tropical wave in the eastern Caribbean is being monitored by the National Hurricane Center (NHC) for tropical cyclone development as convection slowly increases (see Fig. 1). This tropical wave has been listed as Invest 95L by the NHC and has a 20% chance of tropical development over the next 5 days (see Fig. 2).

Fig. 1: Latest Caribbean satellite imagery
Fig. 2: NHC’s 5-day tropical outlook

Invest 95L is expected to move northwest over the next few days, providing deep tropical moisture for the Greater Antilles. The Greater Antilles will play an important variable in the evolution of this tropical wave; the rugged terrain of these islands will limit the initial development of the wave. As Invest 95L moves north of the Greater Antilles, it is possible the system will begin to organize off the east coast of Florida by late in the week.

Numerical guidance is all over the place with the development of Invest 95L. With that said, there is decent support from guidance that this wave will develop into a tropical cyclone (see Fig. 3). The European model is more aggressive with development (the American model–not so much) and suggests development into a tropical cyclone–similarly, the EPS has around a 45% of this wave developing into a tropical depression over the next 72 hours.

Fig. 3: Invest 95L intensity guidance
Fig. 4: EPS probability oof tropical depression

While development into a tropical cyclone is not imminent, this is something we need to keep an eye on. The development and track of this wave become highly questionable by mid to late week so all interests along the Southeast Coast and Gulf of Mexico need to keep an eye on future forecasts. The next name on the 2019 Tropical Cyclone list (Atlantic) is Chantal.