Thanksgiving around a week away, it’s time to begin taking a stab at the
forecast. Over the next seven days, a parade of storm systems will ride along
an active Pacific jet stream into the Pacific Northwest. These various
shortwaves will dig southeastward into the Rockies, inducing the development of
a couple of surface low pressure systems that will deepen over the Plains next
week. Such a scenario will help maintain a trough over the western half of the
U.S., while ridging will attempt to build across the eastern third of the U.S. downstream
of the trough around Thanksgiving.
is relatively high that an active pattern will persist across the Pacific Northwest
before and during the Thanksgiving holiday. This pattern will favor snowy
conditions across the Cascades and the Rockies next week. On Thanksgiving Day
or the day before, the Sierra Nevada Mountains may have accumulating snowfall thanks
to a shortwave that could manage to dig as far south as Northern California. Overall,
the pattern will favor snow falling as far south as the mountainous regions of
Arizona and New Mexico. Cities just outside of the Rockies like Denver, CO and
Cheyenne, WY will receive accumulations, as well. In other words, if you’re
wanting to have at least a couple decent shots at seeing snow around Thanksgiving,
will likely try to hang on across the Southeast and along the eastern U.S. coast.
Thus, any storm system moving in from the West will trek northeastward across
the Great Plains before reaching the Great Lakes region. This will leave the southeastern
U.S. and East coast with wet conditions ahead any cold front that moves through
the region. I don’t anticipate any frozen precipitation falling south of a line
that extends from northern Oklahoma/Texas Panhandle to Kansas/Missouri. The
Dakotas, Nebraska, the Midwest, and Great Lakes will be fair game for heavy
winter precipitation next week. Illinois, Indiana, and Ohio should expect an
active pattern throughout Thanksgiving week, but uncertainty remains low in
regard to how much frozen precipitation will occur across those states. I will
address those probabilities on a system-by-system basis next week.
Temperatures across the Mid-south, Southeast, Mid-Atlantic, and even New England will likely be quite volatile over Thanksgiving week due to the storm track. Although a couple of cold fronts will likely move through most of these regions, warm air advection will occur ahead of any storm system that treks across the Great Plains and Great Lakes region. Mostly, conditions will alternate between cool/wet and seasonably cold/dry. In other words, the pattern will remain active during Thanksgiving week across these regions, and I currently can’t guarantee that many won’t experience cloudy and wet weather on Thanksgiving Day.
Please consider joining our Facebook Support group for only $4.99 a month, where we provide detailed, long-range forecast discussions on the upcoming weather conditions across the United States.
The featured image used in this article is courtesy of @thesmartease.