Rain chances and slightly cooler temperatures will begin to impact parts of Texas and Oklahoma due to a rare cold front pushing southward. This cold front will push into northern Oklahoma late Thursday evening and continue moving southward on Friday. Showers and storms will likely accompany the frontal boundary each day during the afternoon hours. The best chance for storms is Friday afternoon as the cold front pushes south of the I-40 corridor in Oklahoma and Arkansas.
NAM Simulated Reflectivity (Friday Evening):
Afternoon heating, a very moist environment, and lift from the boundary will aid in thunderstorm development. A few of these storms may produce damaging winds and large hail as they move towards the south across Oklahoma, Arkansas, and northern Texas. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has issued a slight risk for severe thunderstorms on Friday.
SPC Severe Thunderstorms Probability Outlook (Friday):
Storm chances will slowly shift southward into most of Texas as the front progresses to the south. Widespread heavy rainfall and flooding is not likely with this setup; however, brief very heavy rainfall could lead to isolated flash flooding. Most areas, that pick up rainfall, will see .25-.50″, but a few areas that get under the heaviest storms may pick up a quick 1-2″ of rainfall.
GFS Rainfall Forecast Through The Weekend:
Along with thunderstorms, cooler than normal temperatures will be ushered in behind the cool front; clouds and precipitation will also help keep temperatures slightly below average for this time of the year. The GFS is showing temperatures on average remaining 1-2 degrees Celsius below average for much of the Southern Plains over the next few days.
GFS Temperature Anomaly Through Monday:
Enjoy the “cooler” temperatures and precipitation. June and July tend to be very uncomfortable across the Southern Plains, so we are very fortunate to have the precipitation chances.