Dec
5
2011

Major Snowstorm Potential Near I-95 Corridor

This is now looking more and more like this could be a major winter storm from D.C. to Boston. This is almost looking similar to the October Snowstorm that dumped 32″ on snow in Massachusetts and widespread 8-12″ From SW PA to Vermont. I think this storm will be similar in the snowfall totals aspect. The path of the storm is going to dictate where the highest totals of snowfall will be. If the storm tracks a little westward, the heaviest totals will be Northwest of the big cities, and the cities will see a mix of rain and snow. But if the storm tracks a little eastward Cities like D.C. and Philly could see several inches of snow, and NYC and Boston could see high amounts also. So here are a few models showing what I am seeing.
NAM 18z 63hrs:

Here is the UKMet which is also all over this storm:

Here is what the NAM is showing snowfall totals wise:

This is showing areas of 12-15″ all throughout PA, and as the model progresses it will show these totals all the way up in to New England also.

So I am taking a stand on this storm thinking it will be like the Halloween storm, and here are my totals:

I will not be changing my totals unless there are dire situations where the storm just goes so far out to sea, but that is very, very unlikely. What may happened is I might have to shift the totals minutely(small) west or east. But this is what I have right now and I am sticking to it, so keep it with firsthand weather we will have complete coverage of this East Coast snowstorm.

About the Author: Garrett Bastardi

I have been interested in the weather since the day I was born. I am the son of Joe Bastardi, and I am so thankful to have a great Dad and teacher like him. he knows the weather like the back of his hand, and he has really helped me get started with my dream of being a forecaster. ALthough he is my dad, with every forecast I am trying to beat him and put out a better forecast than him, which can be tough. In a few years I hope to attend the meteorology dept. at Texas A&M University. I have always dreamed of going to A&M. My grandfather earned a degree there and so thats where I want to study meteorology. Also I hope to get a full college scholarship in golf to A&M, I am an avid golfer and was the District 6 Champ, in PA for golf this year. I hope you have enjoyed reading about me, I am honored to be able to forecast on a site like Firsthand Weather!

  • Chris

    Garret what about Northern NC right around Danville VA?

  • Garrettbastardi

    Chris, it will be very close down there, if the cold air digs in enough you could be looking at a good snow event. Regardless I think you could see heavy wet snow for a few hours on the back side, which could accumulate to several inches on the ridge tops and a few inches in the valleys.

  • http://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi Joe Bastardi

    Heh  Garrett you  trying to whip your dad again?   Good post,  you do your family name proud!

  • Shaulov4

    like father like son………love them both :)

  • Davidshim

    What about new York city, I mean can you post about this for only nyc

  • ken

    but the clowns on nyc channel 2 and 4  and channel 5 say rain with a few flakes at the end
    THESE TV folks are flakes!!

  • Garrettbastardi

    Dad ya know its only natural to take you down big boy:)…Thanks, even though I’m standing right next to ya!!!

  • Garrettbastardi

    David, the NW side of the city could see several inches of snow, lower man hatted 1-3″ OF Wet snow, and Ken yeah haha well they will pick up on it tomorrow morning once they see the gfs shift west again…model huggers haha!

  • Garrettbastardi

    David, the NW side of the city could see several inches of snow, lower man hatted 1-3″ OF Wet snow, and Ken yeah haha well they will pick up on it tomorrow morning once they see the gfs shift west again…model huggers haha!

  • Charlie

    Garret, what are you thinking for Souther NH? Thanks

  • Garrettbastardi

    Charlie, this could be a big storm for southern NH, 7-12″ maybe 15″ in some areas. the storm will be at its peak in New England.

  • http://twitter.com/PatrickNYG Kcirtap

    when is this for?

  • Stevekrzyz

    Garrett, do you have an email address people can get access to?

  • Stevekonarzewski

    awesome post … think the totals might be a bit high on terms of 2-4 inches less but the over all theme is looking good… does anyone see a trend here for storms this winter??

  • http://www.facebook.com/profile.php?id=628020342 Pj Lombard

    I think Garrett should lay off the 5 hours and redbulls because this storm is nothing but a fast mover with rain and maybe mixture. No idea how you got a major snowstorm for the north east.

  • Tom

    When?

  • ZJ

    What is the latest thinking of this storm for the Lower Hudson Valley?  Do you think the models will trend more east, bring the heaviest snow closer to the coast?

  • Bradfordfields81

    Not going to happen at those snow totals. Joe B, why have you not snaked your son for this post. Wishcasting not forecasting. Joe B on the other hand I believe your theory from sept 10, 2010 from Accuaweather on 2012-2013, 2014 & 2015 winter being brutal.

  • Rob

    Trust those TV folks.