Severe Weather from the Plains to the Great Lakes

The severe weather season has gotten off to an active start this year.  After a couple of quiet days, we once again have a risk for some severe storms from Oklahoma up into the Mid Missouri Valley and Upper Mississippi Valley.  Large hail and damaging winds will be the primary threats with very large and damaging hail possible from southern Kansas to Southwestern Oklahoma.  A tornado or 2 can also not be ruled out.  These storms should initiate later this afternoon into this evening and will be widely spaced.  Clusters of development should form in places but see several dozen miles in distance to the next cluster of storms.

Severe Risk

Hail Risk

The biggest risk today is hail, with the largest risk over the Plains.  A strong cap on storms there will make any updrafts that do occur very strong.

Upper Mississippi Valley and Missouri Valley

Widely Scattered Storms will occur late this afternoon on both sides of the warm front that extends from Eastern Nebraska to Southern Wisconsin.  Thunderstorms should also form as the cold front moves into the region down to the Missouri Valley.  Conditions are marginal for supercell development but weak flow will allow those storms to quickly form squall lines of storm clusters.

Central and Southern Plains

Any risk further south is much more conditional and local than the river valleys.  The dryline is weak this morning and though it will sharpen, the strong cap will provide plenty of inhibition to storm formation.   Any storm that does form will have a strong updraft capable of producing very large and damaging hail.  Given the isolated nature expected of these storms, the significant risk for hail area covers this region.

For Nebraska and Southern areas of south Dakota, storms will not be prolific rain producers.  While rain could fall heavily in storms, moisture is in very short supply for this region.  The cold front could still help support a few clusters of storms though and large hail is the primary risk.

Rob