Severe weather risk continues for the next few days

After yesterday’s severe weather across parts of Oklahoma and Texas, storms have spread to the east.  Severe Thunderstorm watches are in effect across several states from now until tonight.

Severe Risk

A trough across Missouri this morning moved eastward to the middle Ohio River Valley and will arrive by late tonight. A belt of 40-50 kt west-southwesterly mid level winds will continue to overspread an increasingly moist warm sector. A cold front has moved across the Ozarks and Ark-La-Tex region and continues east through Kentucky and Tennessee down to the Gulf Coast.  Organized convection across far northeast Arkansas far southeast Missouri from late this morning has spread east-northeastward and increased in coverage and intensity into Tennessee and Kentucky. This activity will pose a damaging wind and severe hail risk, although a tornado cannot be ruled out.

Farther south, more discrete storms have developed within the warm sector this afternoon across additional portions of Tennessee, northern Mississippi and northwest Alabama.  A supercell-favorable wind profile and steep mid-level lapse rates will support large hail potential. A few tornadoes also appear possible,  particularly into early evening across middle portions of Tennessee and northern Mississippi and northwest Alabama.   In this corridor, a modest westerly component of the mid-level winds  and modestly strong low-level shear coincide.

Tornado Risk

Hail Risk

Wind Risk

Current Watches

A Convective line stretching from near Huntingburg Indiana southward across central Kentucky and middle Tennessee and into northwest Alabama is expected to continue moving eastward over the next few hours. The downstream airmass is generally cooler and has less overall instability. However, the line is well-organized and the bulk shear
is expected to remain relatively constant for the next several hours. Near-severe gusts have been measured at several sites as the line moved through. The ongoing severe threat will persist for the next few hours.  A threat is possible downstream in eastern Kentucky, Tennessee and far northwest Georgia and a watch has been issued for this region.  Additionally, the cluster of storms ahead of the line in eastern Kentucky pose an isolated hail and damaging wind threat.

Current warnings

Robert Millette