Severe thunderstorms, and potentially a few tornadoes, are likely today across parts of the South and Southeast. At this hour, severe storms are ongoing across the Southeast. Overnight and into this morning, parts of Mississippi, Alabama, Florida, and Georgia have been impacted hard with this convection. There are reports coming out that the loss of life is at least four in Mississippi with injures also occurring in Alabama.
Hattiesburg, Mississippi Tornado Aftermath
The remnants of these storms are currently advancing through Georgia and South Carolina as the intense jet streak, which initiated these storms, treks eastward. The attention then turns to areas further west in the South for new thunderstorm initiation by this afternoon.
Another robust shortwave will move into the South this afternoon as a trough dives into the Southern Plains. This will allow for intense thunderstorms to erupt across far southeastern Oklahoma and northeastern Texas. As these thunderstorms move into Arkansas, Louisiana, and Mississippi, they’ll likely become severe; capable of producing tornadoes, damaging winds, very large hail, and flash flooding.
Initial Thunderstorm Development on Latest HRRR (will expand NE with time)
The greatest tornado threat will be in the vicinity of a micro-low-pressure system and a warm front, which should be draped across parts of southern Arkansas/northern Louisiana and into Mississippi. Short-range guidance is indicating this micro-low developing in southern Arkansas/western Mississippi with a clear boundary of deep moisture to its south, along with backing winds.
Micro-low Developing on Latest HRRR
The skies area already beginning to clear in this area so the atmosphere is undergoing rapid destabilization. This same area will have the risk of seeing very large hail too as very cold air aloft moves overhead. Thus, a moderate risk (red location on image below), from the Storm Prediction Center, is currently in place.
Thunderstorm Outlook from the Storm Prediction Center
Later in the evening hours, it’s likely the storms will continue to advance further east and new thunderstorm initiation will occur in eastern parts of Mississippi, Alabama, Georgia, and South Carolina. This activity will continue into the nighttime hours and into Sunday morning. This region needs to be watched due to some uncertainties as to how the atmosphere recovers from the morning convection. The atmosphere has been worked over, but it currently appears the atmosphere will become unstable later today, which will allow for new thunderstorm development. All modes of severe thunderstorms are possible in this region as the jet streak moves eastward. Remnant outlflow boundaries and the evolution of the aforementioned micro-low could lead to local enhancemeggnts of tornadic risks for parts of this area, so we will monitor the convection evolution very closely in this region.
Thunderstorms moving into Alabama and Georgia Overnight on Latest HRRR
With all this said, do not panic. Just have a plan in place in case your local National Weather Service office issues a warning for your area. Stay alert to watches and warnings as they’re issued throughout the afternoon and evening hours. We will have updates as needed.
One other thing, many of you know Matthew has not been posting a lot lately. This is due to a family emergency. Matthew’s mother, Karen, is fighting stage four brain cancer. Her condition has rapidly deteriorated over the past few months, and the medical bills are piling up. Matthew has to care for his mom and make decisions for her. I created a gofundme in his name to assist in his and her needs during this rough time. There’s more information about her condition in this gofundme link, so please go read it if you’d like to find out more information and if you would like to help out:Matthew’s GoFundMe.