Tropical Storm Erika Remains A Disorganized Threat

Despite her continued presence over warn ocean waters, Tropical Storm Erika continues to remain highly disorganized due to moderate to strong wind shear in the region.  Erika, currently located at 16.5 North and 63.8 West, has fluctuated back and forth between having her center exposed but strong winds and being surrounded by high intensity but poorly organized thunderstorms.  Currently with Maximum sustained winds of 45 mph and a minimum central pressure of 1006 millibars, which is up some from this morning.  You can see on the satellite image below that the center of the storm, seen just South East of Puerto Rico, is just outside the area of heaviest convection.  By tonight, expect this to change again as the convection strengthens during the diurnal maximum.

Tropical Satellite

While dry air is present in the region, it is to the North and East of Erika and she is showing good outflows into these regions as seen by the high level clouds streaming out.  This is preventing the dry air from really getting involved in her core.  The region she is moving into has plenty of moisture for Erika to work with so that does not seem like it will be a major issue for her going forward.

Water vapor

Tropical Storm Warnings remain in effect for

* Anguilla
* Saba and St. Eustatius
* St. Maarten
* St. Martin
* St. Barthelemy
* Montserrat
* St. Kitts and Nevis
* Puerto Rico
* Vieques
* Culebra
* U.S. Virgin Islands
* British Virgin Islands

Tropical Storm Watches are in effect for
* Guadeloupe
* Dominican Republic from the northern border with Haiti eastward
and southward to Isla Saona
* southeastern Bahamas
* Turks and Caicos Islands

The Tropical Storm Warning for Antigua and Barbuda has been discontinued as Tropical Storm conditions continue to move away from the Islands.  The Tropical Storm Watch on the Dominican Republic has been extended Southward to Isla Saona.

tracking map

Tropical Storm Erika forms in the Atlantic, Watches posted for the Islands

No sooner does Tropical Storm Danny fizzle in the Eastern Caribbean than Tropical Storm Erika forms from the tropical wave that had been following behind Danny. Erika, currently located at 14.4 North and 47.7 West, has maximum sustained winds of 45 MPH and a Minimum Central Pressure of 1003 millibars. Erika is moving from the same area that developed Danny into a category 3 but won’t face the significant obstacles Danny faced moving forward. Erika has far more moisture to work with and thanks to Danny’s passing through the area, far less dry air.

at201505_sat

Erika is expected to strengthen over the next few days as she is currently in an environment of weak wind shear and warm sea surface temperatures.  In a couple of day however, Erika will be impacted by increasing wind shear that will slow her development.  I anticipate a track similar to Danny’s with Erika impacting the Windward Islands in the next couple of days before moving toward Puerto Rico.  Tropical Storm Watches are now in effect for Montserrat, Antigua, Barbuda, St. Kitts and Nevis, Anguilla, Saba and St Eustatius.

* Montserrat
* Antigua
* Barbuda
* St. Kitts and Nevis
* Anguilla
* Saba
* St. Eustatius

Forecaster Robert Millette

Tropical Depression Kilo begins is strengthen

Tropical Depression Kilo, located at 14.5 North and 164.9 West, has a much better look on satellite today and is expected to regain Tropical Storm status sometime this evening to overnight Hawaiian time.  Like Tropical Storm Danny in the Atlantic, Kilo has had a very difficult time with wind shear and has not been able to get enough centralized development together to sustain the energy required of a tropical system but with the wind shear weakening over the last few days and into the forecast time period, he will develop that centralized core. 

Tropical Satellite 2

 

At this time, Kilo is expected to turn back toward the Hawaiian Islands, moving through a developing weakness in the pacific ridge.  This weakness does not appear to be ready to stick around long however, and he is expected to turn away from the islands despite becoming a Hurricane by that time.  Maritime interests should monitor the conditions in this region as Kilo looks to develop into a powerful Hurricane West of the islands.

 

Kilo

 

Forecaster Robert Millette

Danny maintains Tropical Storm status, strengthens this morning

Tropical Storm Danny, now located at 15.8 North and 60.5 West, is hanging onto that status by a thread with maximum sustained winds at 40 mph and a central pressure of 1007 millibars, which is actually stronger than he was last night.  Danny’s satellite and water vapor profiles diminished greatly earlier yesterday afternoon but a cluster of deep convection has once again reformed as it did last night, but this convection is not located at the center of circulation which remains partly exposed at this time but due to strong thunderstorms, the hurricane hunter aircraft was unable to get a good fix on the center of Danny.  So it is possible that Danny could be even stronger than these numbers indicate.

Tropical Satellite

 

Danny continues to have problems with mid level dry air in the region, but the amount of dry air is beginning to diminish as well as sources of moisture, from Venezuela and a trough of low pressure near Bermuda, continue to stream into the area.  The Saharan Air Layer is now very far from its source region and is cut off from additional dry air to the East.

Danny

 

Tropical Storm Warnings remain in effect for Antigua, Barbuda, Montserrat, St. Kitts and Nevis, while Tropical Storm Watches are still active for St. Maarten and Islands of Saba and St. Eustatius.  The Tropical Storm watches for Puerto Rico, Vieques, Culebra and the U.S Virgin Islands have been discontinued.

 

 

Forecaster Robert Millette

 

Tropical Storm Kilo Set To Threaten Hawaii

Tropical Storm Kilo, currently located at 13 North and 153.3 West, doesn’t look like much when you look at the system on satellite.  Strong wind shear in the area has kept the center of the circulation exposed and prevented Kilo from fully wrapping the power deep convection that exists in her western quadrants from fully wrapping around the core.  This has kept Kilo at Tropical Storm strength despite the very warm tropical waters beneath her.   This wind shear will begin to diminish this evening and remain weaker over the next few days which will allow Kilo to strengthen.

Tropical Satellite 2

Kilo is taking an very unusual course towards the Hawaiian Islands as she currently moves South of the island chain.   A weakness in the ridge near the islands will develop over the next few days as a stronger ridge builds in West of the region and Kilo will head into this weakness and turn to the North and the Northeast, curving back towards Hawaii similar to storms curving off the Atlantic seaboard.

tracking map 2

The expectation is that Kilo will becomes a Hurricane as she approaches the Island chain and that she will come close enough to give some impacts to the the Western Islands but for the current moment, the outer bands, which can be seen here to the Southeast of the big island, could impact the area with some rains and gusty winds.

radar

Hurricane Hunters category 3 Hurricane Danny

UPDATE:   We have confirmed the unofficial report from the Hurricane Hunter aircraft.  Danny has maximum sustained winds of 115 mph and is now a Category 3 Hurricane.

Original Article below:

Hurricane Danny, now located at 14.0 North and 48.2 West, has continued to intensify overnight and is now a Category 2 Hurricane.  With maximum sustained winds at 105 mph, Danny is just 6 mph below category 3 status and intensification is expected to continue for the next 12 to 24 hours.  Danny’s minimum central pressure is now 976 millibars and continues to drop.  The Hurricane Hunter plane that is currently in the storm is reporting a minimum central pressure around 970 millibars and flight level winds of nearly 120 mph at 3000 feet above sea level and surface winds of 103 to 104  knots.  This would be a category 3 storm if these readings are confirmed.  Additional data is being gathered and an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance air craft is on its way to the storm to perform an upper level dropsonde mission at this time.  Firsthand Weather will confirm this status as a category 3 if readings confirm this status as soon as data is available.

recon flight

The satellite profile of Danny continues to improve and as his eye has become better defined and the outer bands continue to expand in coverage, which will help to protect the central core of Danny from continued dry air intrusion.  While some of the moisture from the remnants of the tropical moisture that came off of Venezuela remains in front of Danny, much of the moisture inflow from yesterday has mixed with the dry air from the Saharan Air Layer and Danny is moving towards much drier conditions with stronger wind shear.  This will help weaken Danny as he moves towards the Windward Islands.  Danny remains a very small hurricane, with hurricane force winds only extending 15 miles from the eye of the storm.

Tropical Satellite

The forecast track remains on course, our forecast here at Firsthand Weather is slightly North of the National Hurricane Center’s forecast track, with less time over Puerto Rico and Hispanola  than this track, and that model track has trended slightly North as time goes on.

tracking map

Hurricane Danny moving closer to the Caribbean

Hurricane Danny, now located at 13.0 North and 45.7 West,  has continued to intensify this afternoon and his maximum sustained winds are now at 80 mph, up 30 miles per hour from this morning.  Danny’s minimum central pressure has also fallen to 990 millibars, which is about a 1 millibar per hour drop in the pressure.  This rapid intensification has to do with Danny’s unusually small size, as pressure decreases in the center have a bigger impact over the smaller area.  This will also work in the other direction however, where any weakening will also happen quickly.  Despite his small size, Danny’s cloud layer is looking more organized this afternoon with a small eye having developed and convective outer bands beginning to form again.  Danny has been in an area of dry air which has inhibited his ability to intensify despite the weak shear and warm ocean temperatures.  Our tracking map and the Satellite Danny is below.

 

tracking map

 

Tropical Satellite

 

 

The air around Danny was more moist today, with 3 things playing a role in that.  1, the Tropical wave  behind Danny has caught up a little, which is causing the dry air behind Danny to entrain into that system instead of being sucked into a Danny.  There is another low pressure system developing near Bermuda, which will actually have to be watched for development as a tropical or sub-tropical system of it’s own over the next few days, that is pouring moisture into the area of dry air and another wave of tropical moisture is moving off the coast of Venezuela, which can be seen on the radar image above.  With all the moisture in the area, the air is not quite as dry as it had been yesterday.  This trend will not continue though as the air ahead of Danny is very dry and that, along with an increase in wind shear will cause Danny to weaken in the coming days as he approaches the Caribbean.

The Hurricane Hunters have moved out to begin their patrols of Danny and performed a training mission today moving from Florida over Puerto Rico.  Stay with us here at Firsthand Weather for further updates on Danny as information comes in.

 

Forecaster Robert Millette

Tropical Storm Danny continues westward track.

Tropical Storm Danny continues to struggle with dry air from the Saharan Air layer to his North but remains in conditions favorable for development.  Currently located at 12.1 North and 42.7 West, Danny’s maximum sustained winds remains at 50 mph with a minimum central pressure of 1000 millibars.  While Danny’s deep convection remains organized, as seen on this satellite image, the convection is confined to that area by the dry air entraining  into Danny’s outer bands.

 

Tropical Satellite

 

Danny continues to travel West Northwest despite his move South today and remains on track for our last forecast track, with the center of circulation arriving near Montserrat on early Monday.  Danny is still forecast to become a Hurricane as the influence of the dry air weakens over the next day, but even drier air and heavier wind shear is expected once Danny reaches the Windward Islands and the forecast is for Danny to weaken once in the Caribbean.

 

tracking map

 

 

Forecaster Robert Millette

Northeast to experience heavy rain to begin the weekend

While hot and humid conditions will persist in the Northeast for another day, relief is in sight with cooler temperatures on the way after winds begin to shift towards the east and rain moves into the region with highs only in the lower 80’s and upper 70’s.  The humidity will persist until the passage of the cold front.

wms

 

 

For Thursday, rain begins to move in from west to east across New York towards the Hudson River Valley.  Showers and thunderstorms associated with a strong cold front will be all across the State of New York on Thursday, creating a marginal risk of severe weather from Pittsburgh and Buffalo towards Syracuse and the Washington DC metro area.  High Winds and small hail will be the primary threats for the area.  The heaviest rain will fall in Eastern sections of New York overnight Thursday and into Friday morning as a low pressure system develops and moves east near Lake Huron.

wms

 

 

Flooding is possible as many areas in Central and Eastern New York are projected to receive 2-3 inches of rain over from Thursday into Friday.

Severe Watch

 

 

 

By Friday afternoon, the cold front will have moved through the region bringing light  showers to the Boston metropolitan area. Scattered Showers will remain in the area through Saturday as high pressure begins to take over on Sunday with cooler drier conditions.

 

Forecaster Robert Millette

Tropical Storm Danny continues to intensify

Tropical Storm Danny is becoming better organized this evening as deep convective storms become better concentrated around the center of circulation, located at 11.2 North and 38.8 West, and rain bands have begun to form.   Data from satellite passes and a nearby buoy are showing that Danny is intensifying rapidly with maximum sustained winds at 50 mph and the central pressure has now fallen to 1000 millibars, 8 millibars lower than the last advisory.

Tropical Satellite

 

Tropical Storm force winds are now sustained in all 4 quadrants of Danny and winds are expected to continue to increase with Danny forecast to reach hurricane strength by early Thursday morning.  Conditions around Danny are highly favorable for development, with light wind shear and warm sea surface temperatures, despite the dry air from the Saharan Air layer that continues to be in place to Danny’s north.   The tropical wave moving ahead of Danny continues to keep enough moisture in the region to keep the driest air away from Danny.  Danny continues to move West Northwest in a weakness in the Sub Tropical Ridge, but the trough creating that weakness is beginning to move North and will allow the ridge to strengthen again, forcing Danny towards the West.  Long range models show Danny near Montserrat in the late Monday early Tuesday time frame.

Danny