The 2022 Atlantic hurricane season has been a dud so far, with little tropical activity. Will that change as we approach the peak of the season?

As we get into August, much of our focus shifts to storm clusters (African easterly waves, the technical term) moving into the Atlantic from Africa. Some of those clusters typically go on to become tropical storms or hurricanes, but the atmosphere has to cooperate for that to happen. In August and September, the atmosphere usually becomes much for favorable for tropical development, but we haven't seen that so far this season. So, will that change?

One of the big culprits behind the inactive season so far has been A LOT of dry air. Dry air is not good for tropical development. We have a storm cluster moving into the Atlantic later this week and probably another or two right behind that. Model guidance has tried to develop some of these systems, but the dry air isn't going away for at least another 10 days, maybe longer. The map from the latest European model shows just what I'm talking about. . .a lot of dry air in the mid and upper-levels of the atmosphere!

![Dry air over the open Atlantic ](https://firsthandweather.s3.amazonaws.com/dry_air_8faec39029.png)

We do have a tropical wave in the southwest Caribbean that could develop into a tropical depression or storm this Friday or Saturday in the Bay of Campeche (southwestern Gulf of Mexico). It'll move toward northeast Mexico and maybe far southern Texas, bringing tropical rains.  

![National Hurricane forecast: August 16, 2022](https://firsthandweather.s3.amazonaws.com/tropical_update_5bfe6e0a96.png)

But that's about it for now. 

National Hurricane forecast: August 16, 2022

tropical update.png

Will the tropics wake up soon?

Colorado State University (CSU) and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) released the revised 2022 Atlantic hurricane season outlook today. The updated outlook suggests above-average tropical activity is still expected but the numbers have slightly decreased compared to earlier in the season.

CSU is forecasting 18 named storms, 8 hurricanes, and 4 major hurricanes. A major hurricane is classified as a hurricane with winds of at least 115 mph (Category 3). 

![CSU Atlantic hurricane forecast](https://firsthandweather.s3.amazonaws.com/Screen_Shot_2022_08_04_at_9_55_13_AM_9cf11e0047.png)

NOAA is expected 14-20 named storms, 6-10 hurricanes, and 3-5 major hurricanes. 

![NOAA Atlantic hurricane forecast](https://firsthandweather.s3.amazonaws.com/Screen_Shot_2022_08_04_at_9_56_51_AM_e2c24e5472.png)

It should be noted that these numbers include the 3 named systems that already developed earlier in the season. The 1991-2020 average is 14.4 named storms, 7.2 hurricanes, and 3.2 major hurricanes.

A deeper dive into the numbers shows a big factor in the above-average expectations is because of La Niña. This lessens wind shear over the favorable areas of the Atlantic to see tropical development. Notably, wind shear has recently been elevated over the Atlantic Basin along with plumes of Saharan dust, which have potentially led to a slightly decreased number of named storms. The guidance does suggest this region will soon become more favorable for tropical cyclone development. This is an important reminder to keep a close eye on the forecast in the coming weeks. In fact, CSU suggests nearly a 70% (68%) chance of the U.S. being impacted by a major hurricane this season. 

While we are a couple of months into the season, it's important to know that historically nearly 90% (88.5%) of tropical activity occurs from August through November so there's still a lot of season to go.

We've already seen Alex, Bonnie, and Colin. Bonnie is the next name on the list.

Screen Shot 2022-08-04 at 9.59.19 AM.png

CSU and NOAA released revised Atlantic tropical forecasts today. The numbers have slightly decreased but the forecast calls for an above-average season. Nearly 90% (88.5%) of tropical activity occurs from August through November.

Revised numbers: above average hurricane season expected, U.S. has nearly a 70% chance to be impacted by a Major Hurricane this season

A significant flooding risk will continue across parts of the Ohio Valley and western Mid-Atlantic through much of the week. This flooding threat will slowly slide southward into Tennessee and northern parts of the Southeast later this week into the weekend. 

A nearly stationary frontal boundary extends across central Missouri to roughly along the Ohio River into West Virginia. Along and south of this front, above-average moisture in the atmosphere has already contributed to excessive rainfall amounts, particularly along a west-to-east band stretching across St. Louis. 

The frontal boundary and embedded shortwaves have provided and will continue to offer sufficient upward motion in the atmosphere. These features will support the development and sustainment of heavy thunderstorms. The nature of this particular setup favors storms developing and training over the same areas for many hours. 

Rainfall totals exceeded a foot near and just northwest of St. Louis. In only five hours this morning, over 7 inches of rain fell in St. Louis, making today now the wettest day ever recorded for the city. Such an event is very extreme. But again, the current pattern, unfortunately, will support more flooding this week and weekend. Thus, additional bands of very high rainfall amounts could occur within the broader flooding risk.

![St. Louis flooding rainfall totals map](https://firsthandweather.s3.amazonaws.com/st_Louis_mrms_026fb1dd53.jpeg)

Rainfall totals over the last 24 hours (most of this rain only fell in 6 hours or less!!): July 26, 2022

A storm system currently moving across central Canada will dip southeastward into the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes region this week. This system will feature a cold front that will stall after reaching central Arkansas, Tennessee, and North Carolina. As with the last front, a flooding risk will exist along and south of the front, with the highest risk being a tad farther to the south (more into Tennessee).

The Weather Prediction Center’s latest 7-day rainfall forecast provides a good idea as to where the heaviest totals will most likely fall. If the next frontal boundary stalls a little farther south than currently anticipated, more of the northern Gulf coast states could get in on some higher totals, as well. 

![7-Day Rainfall Forecast: July 26-August 2, 2022](https://firsthandweather.s3.amazonaws.com/p168i_70d66639cf.jpg)

7-Day Rainfall Forecast: July 26-August 2, 2022


stLouis_mrms.jpeg

The Major Flooding Risk Doesn’t End with St. Louis 

We are at the point of the year in the South where we are tired of the heat and counting down the day to fall. While no fall-like air is in the forecast for the foreseeable future, a weak cold front will sneak into the Tennessee Valley, Deep South, Southeast, and Carolinas late this upcoming work week into the following weekend (yes, we have to wait another week AND it should be noted another cold front will impact Tennesee earlier in the period so keep reading for more details). This cold front will ease temperatures a few degrees and significantly increase rain chances for some areas.

A strong upper-level ridge anchored over the Gulf of Mexico has delivered summer temperatures to the entire South but an upper-level trough dipping into the Great Lakes later this upcoming work week should be enough to send a weak cold front south late this work week into the following weekend.

The cold front will be weak and will most likely stall and start to wash out near I-20 over the weekend, it'll be a focus for showers and storms to develop. The slow movement of the front, as it starts to lose the push from the upper-level trough to move farther south, will allow for areas of heavy rain Friday through Saturday from Tennessee, northern Mississippi, northern Alabama, and northern Georgia potentially extending into far Upstate South Carolina and western North Carolina.

From Friday through Saturday these areas could see 0.50-1.00 inches of rain with isolated higher amounts for the counties bordering Tennessee. As mentioned above, another cold front will sneak into Tennessee Monday into Tuesday of this upcoming work week. This cold front will stall over Tennessee (so it won't make it down into Mississippi, Alabama, and Georgia) but it'll produce good rain chances for Tennesee for the first half of the week; when you factor in this front with the second front, Tennesee could see heavier rain totals of potentially 2.00-4.00 inches over the next week.

Rainfall forecast next 7-day

![Rainfall forecast next 7-days](https://firsthandweather.s3.amazonaws.com/index_12_f3b524b60f.png)

The increased rain coverage and clouds will keep temperatures a touch cooler with the second cold front. It won't be cold or even refreshing but temperatures Friday and Saturday afternoons could be a touch below average due to the clouds and rain (we will take some 80s, right?!).

Friday afternoon future radar

![Friday afternoon future radar](https://firsthandweather.s3.amazonaws.com/index_10_29ab30df71.png)

Friday afternoon temperature depature from average

![Friday afternoon temperature departure from average](https://firsthandweather.s3.amazonaws.com/index_8_8b917581fc.png)

Saturday afternoon future radar

![Saturday afternoon future radar](https://firsthandweather.s3.amazonaws.com/index_11_af8cf5bf2c.png)

Saturday afternoon temperature depature from average

![Saturday afternoon temperature departure from average](https://firsthandweather.s3.amazonaws.com/index_9_dc20c42dea.png)



Saturday afternoon temperature departure from average

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A weak cold front will sneak into the Tennessee Valley, Deep South, Southeast, and Carolinas late this upcoming work week into the following weekend.

A cold front will bring rain and cooler temperatures to parts of the South and Southeast

In many U.S. locations, temperatures often reach uncomfortable levels during the summer. But high temperatures, combined with elevated moisture in the air, can pose a significant risk to human and animal health. That’s why excessive heat warnings and heat advisories are sometimes necessary.

What criteria are used for issuing excessive heat warnings, watches, and advisories?

Your local National Weather Service office issues heat alert products, just as they do with severe thunderstorm warnings, winter weather advisories, etc. The National Weather Service Procedural Directive establishes criteria for excessive heat warnings and advisories, though local offices are strongly encouraged to establish their own criteria. When they do, they’ll usually have consulted with health officials, epidemiologists, and professors to establish those benchmarks.

The inconsistencies in heat advisory and warning criteria among the 122 offices can lead to confusion among the public. But remember, some U.S. regions are less acclimated to hotter weather. Also, certain local offices may not exclusively consider the heat index for issuing heat products. They may also consider projected high temperatures, duration of the heat event, time of year, local knowledge, etc. Also, local offices commonly lower their criteria in the spring and early summer. People need time to adjust to higher temperatures after winter and early spring. 

Below are the criteria established by the National Weather Service Procedural Directive, used by 55 (shaded in blue) of the 122 offices (45%). 

![Weather offices that use NWS procedural directive for heat products](https://firsthandweather.s3.amazonaws.com/heat_products_policy_869b83b52a.png)

**Excessive heat warning:** Heat index values are expected to reach/exceed 105°F/110°F. Offices in the North use the 105°F threshold, and offices in the South use the 110°F threshold. Low temperatures are expected to remain at or above 75°F. 

**Excessive heat watch:** Conditions will favor excessive heat warning levels in 24-72 hours.

**Heat advisory:** Heat index values are expected to reach/exceed 100°F/105°F. Offices in the North use the 100°F threshold, and offices in the South use the 105°F threshold. Low temperatures are expected to remain at or above 75°F. 

The following map shows the heat index criteria used for excessive heat warnings by local office. As shown, most offices use the procedural directive criteria. However, some offices in southeastern U.S. and southern Texas require higher heat indices. Offices out west often incorporate HeatRisk data into establishing their criteria. 

![Excessive heat warning criteria](https://firsthandweather.s3.amazonaws.com/excessive_heat_warning_criteria_24caa246d0.png)

Nonetheless, if you’re unsure what criteria your local weather office uses, they will almost certainly include the heat index forecast in their heat alerts. When under a heat alert, always drink plenty of water, especially if you have to be outside. If you have the opportunity to stay indoors, do it!

![Excessive heat warning example from Mississippi](https://firsthandweather.s3.amazonaws.com/example_heat_alert_5ba999ca5f.png)

The research [paper](https://doi.org/10.1175/WCAS-D-15-0037.1) from Hawkins et al. (2017) was especially useful when preparing this article. 


hot sun.jpg

Excessive heat warning vs. heat advisory

A building heatwave will bring the hottest temperatures of the year to the Pacific and Inland Northwest next week, July 25 through July 29, potentially extending into that upcoming weekend July 30 through July 31 for the Inland Northwest.

A strong summer ridge will build over the Northeast Pacific and Northwest next week, which will skyrocket temperatures into the 90s & 100s. Some 110s are possible for the typically warmer valleys, basins, and deserts.

The hottest temperatures for the I-5 cities, including Portland and Seattle, look to occur Wednesday through Thursday. This is when Portland could be near 100 degrees with Seattle in the mid-90s. Areas farther south will be even hotter. Temperatures look to decrease but still stay above average and hot, by the weekend for the I-5 cities and areas west of the Cascade Range while areas east of the Cascade Range could see the heat build into the weekend. Some of these typically warmer areas as mentioned above could see temperatures exceed 110 degrees.

While these temperatures may not seem overly hot when compared to the Southern Plains and Desert Southwest, these temperatures are hot for this region and some areas do not have A/C. On a bright note, this heatwave won't be of the magnitude June 2021 heat dome, but it'll still be dangerous heat. 

Heat alerts will be issued over the coming days for most of the Pacific and Inland Northwest. The fire danger will grow increasingly high too.

Potential afternoon temperatures Monday, July 25

![GFS modeled Monday, July 25 afternoon temperatures](https://firsthandweather.s3.amazonaws.com/index_2_95c98c232c.png)

Potential afternoon temperatures Tuesday, July 26

![GFS modeled Tuesday, July 26 afternoon temperatures](https://firsthandweather.s3.amazonaws.com/index_3_4c810bf75f.png)

Potential afternoon temperatures Wednesday, July 27

![GFS modeled Wednesday, July 27 afternoon temperatures](https://firsthandweather.s3.amazonaws.com/index_4_2e73f546a4.png)

Potential afternoon temperatures Thursday, July 28

![GFS modeled Thursday, July 28 afternoon temperatures](https://firsthandweather.s3.amazonaws.com/index_5_5f58da0557.png)

Potential afternoon temperatures Friday, July 29

![GFS modeled Friday, July 29 afternoon temperatures](https://firsthandweather.s3.amazonaws.com/index_6_d0bf57f23e.png)

Potential afternoon temperatures Saturday, July 30

![GFS modeled Saturday, July 30 afternoon temperatures](https://firsthandweather.s3.amazonaws.com/index_7_27a729d965.png)



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A building heatwave will bring the hottest temperatures of the year to the Pacific and Inland Northwest next week, July 25 through July 29, potentially extending into that upcoming weekend July 30 through July 31 for the Inland Northwest.

Get your latest weather forecast and alerts.

Will the tropics wake up soon?

Revised numbers: above average hurricane season expected, U.S. has nearly a 70% chance to be impacted by a Major Hurricane this season

The Major Flooding Risk Doesn’t End with St. Louis

A cold front will bring rain and cooler temperatures to parts of the South and Southeast

Excessive heat warning vs. heat advisory

Heatwave to bring the hottest temperatures of the year to the Pacific Northwest