The National Hurricane Center continues to monitor an area of low pressure off the coast of South Carolina. This low pressure developed along a frontal boundary this weekend and has gradually organized, and could develop into a Tropical Depression or Tropical Storm Helene this upcoming week as it feeds off the warm Gulf Stream.

This low pressure has been given a 50% chance to develop over the next 24 to 48 hours as it moves north northwestward approaching the Carolinas.

**Low pressure the NHC is monitoring**

![Low pressure the NHC is monitoring](https://firsthandweather.s3.amazonaws.com/Low_pressure_the_NHC_is_monitoring_ae9554fc8e.png)

Regardless of this system developing, whether that's tropical or subtropical, it'll bring impacts to coastal parts of the Southeast, including the Carolinas, and the Mid-Atlantic through the first half of this upcoming week. Rough seas and large waves as well as storm surge and beach erosion are possible for coastal areas, especially for the Outer Banks. And, the big concern is gusty squalls that produce heavy rain that could lead to areas of freshwater flooding. A widespread 2-4 inches of rain is expected from the Carolinas into the Mid-Atlantic with isolated amounts of 5-7 inches from Monday through Wednesday of this week along coastal North Carolina into southeastern Virginia and along the east facing slopes of the higher terrain in Virginia.

**Rain forecast this week from the WPC**

![Rain forecast this week from the WPC](https://firsthandweather.s3.amazonaws.com/Rain_forecast_this_week_from_the_WPC_0b40556473.png)

If you live in these areas, keep a close eye on the forecast and never cross a road covered by water.

Low pressure the NHC is monitoring

A tropical Storm could develop along the Carolinas Coast this week, flooding possible.

Tropical Storm could develop along the Carolinas Coast this week

Potential Tropical Cyclone 6 (PTC6) has been designated in the western Gulf of Mexico by the National Hurricane Center (NHC) on Sunday. This first advisory from the NHC shows PTC6 will strengthen into Francine, making landfall somewhere along the upper Texas coast or southwestern/southcentral Louisiana coast as a hurricane sometime on Wednesday. With this new advisory, Tropical Storm Watch has been issued along parts of the Mexico Gulf Coast to the mouth of the Rio Grande River. Additional Watches and Warnings will be issued over the 24-48 hours for parts of coastal Texas and coastal Louisiana.

**PTC6 forecast from the NHC as of Sunday evening**
![PTC6 forecast from the NHC as of Sunday evening](https://firsthandweather.s3.amazonaws.com/PTC_6_forecast_from_the_NHC_as_of_Sunday_evening_84ceef3857.png)

Once Francine makes landfall on Wednesday, the system will then move inland spreading impacts northeastward across the Deep South, including the lower and possible mid-Mississippi River Valley beyond mid-week. The main concern is heavy rain and flooding from coastal parts of Texas and Louisiana, spreading inland, along with storm surge from the coastal bend of Texas to coastal Louisiana and possibly coastal Mississippi, along with the potential of hurricane force winds and isolated tornadoes.

**Rain forecast from Francine**
![Rain forecast from Francine](https://firsthandweather.s3.amazonaws.com/Rain_forecast_from_Francine_3625aba9cb.png)

If you live along the northwestern/north-central Gulf Coast, or areas inland from these locations, please keep an eye on the forecast over the next few days and listen to all information from local officials.

PTC6 forecast from the NHC as of Sunday evening

Francine to develop this week, making landfall as hurricane along the Gulf Coast.

Potential Tropical Cyclone 6 designated in Gulf, forecast to make landfall as hurricane this week along the Gulf Coast

The odds are increasing for tropical development in the Gulf of Mexico this upcoming week as a tropical disturbance, that is near the Yucatan Peninsula as of Saturday, moves over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico by Sunday.

**Satellite imagery of tropical disturbance**
![Satellite imagery of tropical disturbance](https://firsthandweather.s3.amazonaws.com/Satellite_imagery_of_tropical_disturbance_4d1f7d1ab3.jpeg)

As this disturbance moves over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico, and gradually moves northward just off the eastern coast of northern Mexico, it will interact with a broad area of low pressure, that brought heavy rain to parts of coastal Texas and Louisiana over the past week, along with a cold front that's advancing southward.

These ingredients along with lessened wind shear and warm water temperatures will combine to favor the development of a tropical depression, possibly a tropical storm this upcoming week, possibly as early as early to mid-week.

The National Hurricane Center has increased the odds of development in this region to 70% over the next 7-days, which is the likely category. 

**National Hurricane Center tropical outlook for the disturbance**
![National Hurricane Center tropical outlook for the disturbance](https://firsthandweather.s3.amazonaws.com/National_Hurricane_Center_tropical_outlook_for_the_disturbance_d1dcef57e5.png)

It is too early to identify the exact impacts and potential track of this system, but the western Gulf States should keep a very close eye on the forecast over the coming days. Guidance does suggest the steering pattern will be toward the north through midweek, possibly becoming more north-northeast toward the end of the upcoming week. Regardless of development, heavy rain is probable along the Texas and Louisiana coast later this upcoming week.

**Weather Prediction Center's precipitation forecast for the next 7-days**
![Weather Prediction Center's precipitation forecast for the next 7-days](https://firsthandweather.s3.amazonaws.com/Weather_Prediction_Center_s_precipitation_forecast_for_the_next_7_days_a4a87da6ec.png)

If this disturbance develops and becomes named, it would be Francine.

Tropical disturbance

A tropical disturbance over the Yucatan Peninsula has a 70% chance to develop into a tropical depression this week, impacts possible for Texas and Louisiana.

Tropical system to form in the Gulf of Mexico this week, impacts possible for Gulf States

A cold late-August storm system will bring accumulation snow to parts of Montana on Wednesday. The storm system is diving southward out of British Columbia and will track along the United States border near northern Idaho and Montana throughout the day Wednesday. This cold upper lever system will plummet snow levels to 5,000 feet in parts of Idaho and Montana.

Low snow levels along with strong lift and adequate moisture will lead to pockets of moderate snow that will accumulate above 5,000 feet for these areas. Ahead of the snow, the Missoula National Weather Service issued a Winter Weather Advisory for locations above 5,000 feet at Glacier National Park and the Seeley Swan Region, including Going-to-the-Sun Road and Logan Pass along U.S. 2. The Winter Weather Advisory is in effect from 6AM to 6PM Wednesday.

**Winter Weather Advisory**
![Winter Weather Advisory](https://firsthandweather.s3.amazonaws.com/Winter_Weather_Advisory_9191af003f.JPG)

Areas within the Winter Weather Advisory will see 3-6 inches of snow accumulations with greater totals in the highest elevations.

**Modeled snow accumulations**
![Modeled snow accumulations ](https://firsthandweather.s3.amazonaws.com/Modeled_snow_accumulations_7a4f0b0281.png)

If you are recreating or going out into the backcountry, please be aware of the drastic drop in temperatures, rain changing to snow, and wind that is expected over the next 24 to 36 hours.

Winter Weather Advisory

A late summer winter storm will bring several inches of snow to parts of Montana

Winter Weather Advisory issued for parts of Montana, including Glacier National Park, several inches of snow expected

The seasons are changing, and it is evident in the higher terrain at the higher latitudes. Just days after snow blanked the highest peaks of Northern California, including Mount Shasta, more snow is in the forecast for parts of the west this week.

**Snowy Saturday (August 24) morning at Mount Shasta**
![Snowy Saturday (August 24) morning at Mount Shasta](https://firsthandweather.s3.amazonaws.com/Snowy_Saturday_August_24_morning_at_Mount_Shasta_5c29215bc9.jpg)

A cold storm system and associated Pacific cold front will drop snow levels overnight Tuesday into Wednesday morning as low as 6,000 feet in the northern U.S. Rockies across Montana, Wyoming and Idaho, this does include the mountains at Glacier National Park. There is even the potential for some snow along the Cascade ridgeline in Washington State on Tuesday.

**Upper-level weather pattern midweek (green colors depict where the cold upper storm system is located during this time)**
![Upper-level weather pattern midweek (green colors depict where the cold upper storm system is located during this time)](https://firsthandweather.s3.amazonaws.com/Upper_level_weather_pattern_midweek_green_colors_depict_where_the_cold_upper_storm_system_is_located_during_this_time_6a2d60d80c.png)

Accumulations will not be significant, nor will they impact valleys or populated areas, but it is possible a coating to 1 inch could fall as low as 6,000 feet with a few inches for the highest peaks. 

**Modeled snow accumulation forecast**
![Modeled snow accumulation forecast](https://firsthandweather.s3.amazonaws.com/Modeled_snow_accumulation_forecast_57af607ccf.png)

This cold strong system is the same system responsible for driving in a cold front into the Northern Plains late in the week that will move south into the Southern Plains, Midwest and Great Lakes. This will deliver below normal temperatures over Labor Day Weekend into the first week of September for these areas.

**Temperature departure from normal late week (blue/purple colors depict temperatures below normal, red/orange colors depict temperature above normal)**
![Temperature departure from normal late week (blue/purple colors depict temperatures below normal, red/orange colors depict temperature above normal)](https://firsthandweather.s3.amazonaws.com/orange_colors_depict_temperature_above_normal_fa73be92b9.png)

**8–14-day temperature outlook from the CPC**
![8–14-day temperature outlook from the CPC](https://firsthandweather.s3.amazonaws.com/8_14_day_temperature_outlook_from_the_CPC_e47e802c94.png)

Snowy Saturday (August 24) morning at Mount Shasta

A cold storm system will bring more mountain snow to the west this week, cooler air moves east into Plains, Midwest, Great Lakes

More snow to blanket the Rockies this week, cold air with system moves into central, eastern parts of the country

A break from the intense summer heat is on the way to Oklahoma as a pattern change brings cooler, below normal temperatures and increased rain chances. The heat ridge that's been baking Oklahoma over the weekend will gradually build east throughout this upcoming week (the last week of August) and weaken, opening the door for cold front to arrive late this upcoming week as a trough dives into the Northern Plains.

**Upper-air weather pattern late this week (ridge—red/orange eastern U.S., trough—yellow/green Northern Plains)**
![Upper-air weather pattern late this week (ridge—red/orange eastern U.S., trough—yellow/green Northern Plains)](https://firsthandweather.s3.amazonaws.com/green_Northern_Plains_79d870e5a1.png)

This initial cold front late this week will be followed by another, potentially stronger, cold front on Labor Day Weekend. This cold front appears to pack more of a punch, dropping high temperatures well below normal from late Labor Day weekend into the first half of the first week of September. Highs for most of Oklahoma, outside of far southern Oklahoma, will fall into the mid to upper-80s late week with lows falling into the mid to upper 60s. Southern Oklahoma will stay around 90 with lows around 70. Then over the weekend, with the second cold front, parts of northern and central Oklahoma could see highs fall into the mid to upper 70s with lows around 60, possibly some upper 50, especially in the Panhandle. Southern Oklahoma will finally see the comfortable temperatures with highs dipping into the 80s and lows in the 60s late Labor Day Weekend into the first half of that following week. During this timeframe, temperatures are trending below normal, which is depicted by the Climate Prediction Center's 8-14-day temperature outlook.

**8–14-day temperatures outlook from the CPC (blue colors show temperatures are leaning below normal)**
![8-14 day temperature outlook from the CPC](https://firsthandweather.s3.amazonaws.com/8_14_day_temperature_outlook_from_the_CPC_8e32b819ef.png)

Along with the cooler temperatures these cold fronts provide, rain chances will also increase with these fronts along with a few weak disturbances traversing the Sooner State. This will increase the rain chances and cloud coverage, only helping to keep temperatures below normal and help out with the expanding, intensifying drought over parts of the state. Rain chances will be in the forecast from Thursday through Labor Day Weekend with the best coverage and heaviest totals currently expected across northern and central Oklahoma. It should also be noted, a coastal system impacting Texas could sling enough moisture into southeastern Oklahoma to generate isolated storms each afternoon from Tuesday through Thursday that'll be enhanced via the Ouachita Mountains. 

**7-day precipitation forecast from the WPC**
![7-day precipitation forecast from the WPC](https://firsthandweather.s3.amazonaws.com/7_day_precipitation_forecast_from_the_WPC_a56c5acc3f.png)

8-14 day temperature outlook from the CPC

Cooler temperatures and rain chances on the way to Oklahoma

Get your latest weather forecast and alerts.

Tropical Storm could develop along the Carolinas Coast this week

Potential Tropical Cyclone 6 designated in Gulf, forecast to make landfall as hurricane this week along the Gulf Coast

Tropical system to form in the Gulf of Mexico this week, impacts possible for Gulf States

Winter Weather Advisory issued for parts of Montana, including Glacier National Park, several inches of snow expected

More snow to blanket the Rockies this week, cold air with system moves into central, eastern parts of the country

Pattern change will bring cooler temperatures to Oklahoma and increase rain chances