Growing concern and increasing confidence in winter storm next week

There is growing concern and increasing confidence in an impactful winter storm developing over parts of Oklahoma and Texas late this upcoming week. Over the past several days, there has been 'noise' within the models suggesting the potential for a developing storm system to pull moisture into a cold airmass across the Southern Plains, but the models were very inconsistent and all over the place with the specifics. This is not unusual given how far out this timeframe was along with the volatility of the weather pattern.

However, over the past 48-hours, models [while still struggling to handle the evolution of this weather pattern] are generally on board with a developing storm system over the Lone Star State late Wednesday [January 8] continuing into Thursday [January 9] and possibly the morning of Friday [January 10]. While it is too early to get into specifics, a developing storm system over Texas, paired with the lingering Arctic air, would likely lead to a mixed bag of precipitation ranging from coastal heavy rain and thunderstorms to freezing rain and sleet [possibly in northern parts of central Texas] and possibly a wet, moderate-heavy snow in northern Texas, extending into at least southern Oklahoma [any shifts north or south in the precipitation shield along with temperature profile will have significant impacts on who see what and how much - this will not be known for a couple to few more days].

The models have not only gotten more consistent with such a scenario but have ramped up the strength of the possible storm system as well as an uptick in available moisture that could lead to heavy precipitation rates that could allow for potentially significant ice and snow accumulations somewhere across Texas and parts of Oklahoma. At this time, an early guess would be northern Texas and far southern Oklahoma have the highest probability to see accumulating snow on Thursday [January 9] with a decent probability of ice in southern parts of northern Texas and potentially northern parts of central Texas. At this point, moderate confidence exists in an impactful winter storm that will disrupt travel and potentially power for areas that see ice. This same system would then move east impacting parts of the Deep South and Southeast late Friday into next weekend where a mixed bag of precipitation is also possible along with eventual impacts possible for the Mid-Atlantic and maybe Northeast late weekend into early that following week. It is possible parts of the Mid-South down into northern parts of Mississippi, Alabama and Georgia could see wintry troubles next weekend but this is not set in stone.

At this point, while it is too early to get into specifics, it is not too early to begin to prepare for the potential for wintry precipitation this upcoming week. This storm has the potential to be a significant winter storm for parts of the country, including southern locations. Please keep checking back for updates and follow trusted sources for this evolving weather pattern and possible winter storm.