A strong cold front is sweeping east across the Eastern United States. Behind this cold front, modified Arctic air will send temperatures plummeting allowing for any lingering moisture to changeover to snow.

Ahead of the cold front, it's quite warm for December. In fact, ingredients are in place for spring-like thunderstorms as the cold front clashes into the warmer, moist airmass. Isolated severe storms are possible this afternoon and evening [Tuesday] including the potential for a tornado or two. There's a severe risk extending from the north-central Gulf Coast into northern Georgia including the Atlanta Metro.

**Today's severe risk**
![Today's severe risk](https://firsthandweather.s3.amazonaws.com/Today_s_severe_risk_c316af6dcf.jpg)

As the cold front continues to move east and south, much colder air will rush in behind the cold front. This colder air will allow for the brief potential of rain changing to snow on Wednesday across parts of eastern Tennessee, northern Georgia and western North Carolina. The big question is the timing of cold air and moisture - will moisture remain in place when the atmosphere is cold enough to support snow. At this time, it appears there will be just enough lingering moisture to support a brief chance for a few snowflakes for the aforementioned areas. The favored locations that have the best chance for some snow include the mountains of eastern Tennessee/western North Carolina and the mountains of far northeastern Georgia late Wednesday morning into early Wednesday afternoon [snow levels could fall as low as 1,500 to 1,000 feet by lunchtime Wednesday]. A few lingering mountain snow showers are possible later in the day Wednesday as the flow favors enough lift and moisture due to the mountains to squeeze out some flakes. 

**Future radar late Wednesday morning**
![Future radar late Wednesday morning](https://firsthandweather.s3.amazonaws.com/Future_radar_late_Wednesday_morning_89cb7650ff.jpg)

**Future radar early Wednesday afternoon**
![Future radar early Wednesday afternoon](https://firsthandweather.s3.amazonaws.com/Future_radar_early_Wednesday_afternoon_8d46e6d2a7.jpg)

Light accumulations are possible above 1,500 feet where a dusting to 1 inch is possible with a few to several inches possible for the highest peaks along the Tennessee/North Carolina state line by Wednesday night. The greatest chance to see upwards of 5 inches of snow is forecast above 5,000 feet.

**Snow accumulation forecast**
![Snow accumulation forecast](https://firsthandweather.s3.amazonaws.com/Snow_accumulation_forecast_be7ea5abc8.jpg)

It should be noted, if less moisture is available in the post-frontal airmass, snow chances decrease; if more moisture lingers, snow chances and amounts would increase.

Snow accumulation forecast

A strong cold front will spark severe storms and drop temperatures cold enough to support snow across the Southeast. 

Snow and severe weather possible for the Southeast

A Santa Ana wind event will bring an 'extreme' fire danger to parts of Southern California throughout the day today [Tuesday] which is the highest possible wildfire risk. Areas included in this extreme risk include parts of Los Angeles and Ventura counties where wildfires that ignite will spread rapidly and erratically posing a significant risk to property and life.

**Today's fire risk**
![Today's fire risk](https://firsthandweather.s3.amazonaws.com/Today_s_fire_risk_51a0e52647.jpg)

Due to the extreme fire risk, the Los Angeles National Weather Service issued a rare 'particularly dangerous situation' Red Flag Warning from the east side of Santa Maria south through Los Angeles and Ventura counties and all the way down to the Mexico border on the east side of San Diego.

**Red Flag Warning**
![Red Flag Warning](https://firsthandweather.s3.amazonaws.com/Red_Flag_Warning_008b7b3219.jpg)

The extreme fire conditions are fueled by strong, gusty Santa Ana winds gusting between 40-60 mph [with some higher gusts in the mountain canyons on the western facing slops up to 90 mph in isolated instances], paired with dry vegetation and low relative humidity.

These Santa Ana winds are setting up as a strong area of high pressure builds over the Great Basin along with relatively lower atmospheric pressure off the coast of California. This setup favors winds to flow [blow] from the high-pressure system [over the Great Basin] toward the lower pressure [off the coast of California], with winds as they flow from east to west being forced up and over the mountains, and these winds are enhanced as they're squeezed at the ridges of the mountains, rushing down the west sides of the mountains in Southern California. The winds as they come down the west sides of the mountains tend to dry things out and warm it up, so it leads to warm temperatures and very low relative humidity. This type of environment creates the extreme fire conditions that're forecast today. 

The weather pattern that typically favors the development of Santa Ana winds events tends to occur during the months of October through March.

Today's fire risk

A Santa Ana wind event will bring an 'extreme' fire danger to parts of Southern California throughout the day today which is the highest possible wildfire risk. Areas included in this extreme risk include parts of Los Angeles and Ventura counties.

Santa Ana winds bring EXTREME fire risk to parts of Southern California today

A Tsunami Warning is in effect for coastal Oregon and the coast of Northern California, including the San Francisco Bay after a magnitude 7.0 earthquake occurred just off the coast of Northern California. The earthquake was about 40 miles WNW of Petrolia, California at around a depth of 4/10ths of a mile [so a very shallow earthquake].

**7.0 Earthquake**
![7.3 Earthquake](https://firsthandweather.s3.amazonaws.com/7_3_Earthquake_5703e29432.png)

**Tsunami Warning**
![Tsunami Warning](https://firsthandweather.s3.amazonaws.com/Tsunami_Warning_a7957525de.jpg)

If you live or are located anywhere from Davenport, California [10 miles north of Santa Cruz] to the Douglas/Lane, Oregon line [10 miles southwest of Florence], move inland immediately. A tsunami with significant inundation is possible or is already occurring. Tsunamis are a series of dangerous waves that can occur for hours after the initial wave and the first wave may not be the largest.

This is a developing, breaking situation. Keep checking back for updates. 


Tsunami Warning

A Tsunami Warning is in effect for coastal Oregon and the coast of Northern California, including the San Francisco Bay after a magnitude 7.0 earthquake occurred just off the coast of Northern California. 

Tsunami Warning for coastal Oregon and California, including San Francisco Bay

There is increasing confidence in the potential for snow flurries and light snow Monday evening into early Tuesday morning for parts of the Southeast. The system responsible for the snow chances is currently over southern Manitoba. This robust clipper-like system [or a strong are of upper-level lift] will rapidly drop southward toward the Midwest on Southeast late Monday. This system is rounding the outer periphery of the strong upper trough that is responsible for the chilly, Arctic airmass that is in place.

This chilly airmass will set the stage for a temperature profile conducive to support snow; however, with this cold air, there is a lot of dry air associated with the Arctic high-pressure system controlling the weather across the Southeast. This dry air will limit snow totals but enough lift with the upper-level clipper system, along with mid-level atmospheric moisture, should lead to an extensive area of snow developing across Kentucky, Tennessee, northeastern Mississippi, northern Alabama, northern Georgia and the Carolinas [shifting from northwest to southeast Monday evening into early Tuesday morning]. While this snow will be extensive on radar [not all reaching the ground], a lot of it will be 'eaten' away by the dry air in the lower levels of the atmosphere. Despite the concerns over this dry air, the heaviest returns that develop will translate to snow reaching the ground, and when paired with orographic enhancements across Tennessee, northern Alabama, northern Georgia, western North Carolina and Upstate South Carolina, this increases the odds of light snow reaching the surface [a more favorable placement of the clipper system and a touch more moisture will also lead to more favorable chances for snow to reach the ground in central and eastern North Carolina, extending into north-central South Carolina early Tuesday morning]. It is even possible the far northern Atlanta suburbs could see light flurriest Monday night.

**Radar Monday 6pm**
![ Radar Monday 6pm](https://firsthandweather.s3.amazonaws.com/Radar_Monday_6pm_8609128c2d.jpg)

**Radar Monday 8pm**
![Radar Monday 8pm](https://firsthandweather.s3.amazonaws.com/Radar_Monday_8pm_d8887b0db3.jpg)

**Radar Monday 10pm**
![ Radar Monday 10pm](https://firsthandweather.s3.amazonaws.com/Radar_Monday_10pm_230fa4ae2a.jpg)

**Radar Tuesday 2am**
![ Radar Tuesday 2am](https://firsthandweather.s3.amazonaws.com/Radar_Tuesday_2am_32da28b192.jpg)

While the radar may look quite impressive at times late Monday, the dry air will certainly limit what reaches the ground, and hence, limit snow accumulations. Despite this, light snow accumulations are forecast. A dusting is possible around central Tennessee, parts of northern Alabama, northern Georgia, and for central parts North Carolina and possibly central South Carolina. The higher terrain along the Tennessee-North Carolina state will could see 2-4 inches by Tuesday morning. 

**Snow accumulation forecast**
![Snow accumulation forecast](https://firsthandweather.s3.amazonaws.com/Snow_accumulation_forecast_9e0361a589.jpg)

![Snow accumulation forecast](https://firsthandweather.s3.amazonaws.com/Snow_accumulation_forecast_ea9d5e22f4.jpg)

Snowy radar

There is increasing confidence in the potential for snow flurries and light snow Monday evening into early Tuesday morning for parts of the Southeast. 

Increasing confidence in snow for the Southeast late Monday, early Tuesday

Tomorrow [Sunday, December 1] is the first day of Meteorological Winter, and not only will it feel like it across the South and Southeast, but it could also look like it at times over the next few days as snow is possible for a few folks. 

There are two small opportunities for flurries [or light snow] across parts of the South and Southeast during the first couple days of Meteorological Winter. The first opportunity arrives tonight into Sunday morning, for the Southern Appalachians.

A weak system diving out of the Midwest into the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic [on the base of the trough - the culprit for the cold, Arctic air in place] will generate enough lift when paired with the orographic lift of the mountains along the Tennessee - North Carolina state line to squeeze out the minimal moisture that's available. Light snow is expected tonight through Sunday morning for the highest elevations in these mountains with only a dusting up to 1 inch possible by lunchtime Sunday.

Another opportunity for flurries or light snow arrives Monday into Monday night, possibly for areas farther south, as the next upper-level system dives southward from the Midwest into the Southeast.

There isn't much moisture associated with this dry, cold airmass underneath the Arctic high pressure, but this little clipper system looks to be strong enough to squeeze out some flurries, possibly some light snow [at times radar could look more impressive that what's reaching the surface due to the dry air throughout the atmosphere]. And sometimes these systems can provide surprises if even slightly stronger than modeled or if there's even a touch more moisture available.

Snow chances initially start early Monday afternoon across northwestern and north-central Tennessee, spreading south and southeast throughout the late afternoon and evening hours, continuing at times into the nighttime hours Monday. It's possible a few areas near the Tennessee state line in Mississippi and Alabama see a few flurries with flurries possible as far south as I-85 in north Georgia Monday night, possibly extending into central North Carolina and Upstate South Carolina.

**Future Radar Monday at 3PM**
![Future Radar Monday at 3PM](https://firsthandweather.s3.amazonaws.com/Future_Radar_Monday_at_3_PM_3f0462c307.jpg)

**Future Radar Monday at 6PM**
![Future Radar Monday at 6PM](https://firsthandweather.s3.amazonaws.com/Future_Radar_Monday_at_6_PM_a441ca6782.jpg)

**Future Radar Monday at 9PM**
![Future Radar Monday at 9PM](https://firsthandweather.s3.amazonaws.com/Future_Radar_Monday_at_9_PM_8a004159df.jpg)

**Future Radar Tuesday at 12AM**
![Future Radar Tuesday at 12AM](https://firsthandweather.s3.amazonaws.com/Future_Radar_Tuesday_at_12_AM_10c7ada769.jpg)

Please keep in mind, this is a low-end chance for a few flurries and most areas won't see snow but there's a better chance for another round of light snow in the mountains along the Tennessee - North Carolina state line where the highest peaks could see a couple to a few inches of light snow accumulations [meaning with Sunday morning's snow potential and Monday night's snow potential, the two events combined could lead to isolated 2-4 inch amounts].

**Snow Accumulation Forecast Through Tuesday Morning**
![Snow Accumulation Forecast Through Tuesday Morning](https://firsthandweather.s3.amazonaws.com/Snow_Accumulation_Forecast_Through_Tuesday_Morning_eb53f5f416.jpg)

If any snow falls, widespread accumulations aren't expected outside of the mountains. It's possible a light dusting accumulated on elevated surfaces where the snow briefly falls at a heavier rate. If you pick up any snow, please share your pictures with Firsthand Weather.

Light snow possible Monday

There are two small opportunities for light snow across parts of the South and Southeast during the first couple days of Meteorological Winter.

Light snow possible for parts of the South & Southeast, including north Georgia

A high-impact lake-effect snow event will dump feet of snow from today [Friday] through early to mid next week [first week of December].

The culprit for the heavy, long-lasting lake effect snow is a weather pattern that will feature the coldest air of the season persistently flowing over the relatively warm, ice-free Great Lakes [Great Lakes water temperatures are still in the 50s - running 4-7 degrees above normal].

**Great Lakes Current Water Temperatures and Departure From Normal**
![Great Lakes Current Water Temperatures and Departure From Normal](https://firsthandweather.s3.amazonaws.com/Great_Lakes_Current_Water_Temperatures_and_Departure_From_Normal_8ace513649.jpg)

This west-northwesterly flow over the lakes [a favorable pattern in which the winds are traveling a long distance over these warm waters] will favor the typical snowbelt zones on the eastern side of Lake Erie and Lake Ontario [lake effect snow is also forecast on the eastern side of Lake Superior, Lake Michigan and Lake Huron].

These areas [on the eastern side of Lake Erie and Lake Ontario] are under a Lake Effect Snow Warning from today [Friday] through Monday [December 2 - it's possible this gets extended] with other areas around the other Great Lakes under Winter Storm Warnings and Advisories.

**Active Winter Weather Alerts**
![Active Winter Weather Alerts](https://firsthandweather.s3.amazonaws.com/Active_Winter_Weather_Alerts_b05ac069d1.jpg)

**Active Lake Effect Snow Warning through Monday [December 2]**
![Active Lake Effect Snow Warning through Monday [December 2]](https://firsthandweather.s3.amazonaws.com/Active_Lake_Effect_Snow_Warning_through_Monday_December_2_70f44c30ca.jpg)

Within the Lake Effect Snow Warning, 3-7 feet of snow is forecast in some locations. Additional locations around the other Great Lakes under Winter Storm Warnings and Advisories where several inches of snow are forecast with the potential of up to 2 feet for areas on the southeast side of Lake Superior and northeastern side of Lake Michigan [the northwestern parts of Michigan's Upper Peninsula].

**3-Day Snow Accumulation Forecast**
![3-Day Snow Accumulation Forecast](https://firsthandweather.s3.amazonaws.com/3_Day_Snow_Accumulation_Forecast_198be4d32a.jpg)

**3-Day Snow Accumulation Forecast - Lake Effect Snow Warning**
![3-Day Snow Accumulation Forecast - Lake Effect Snow Warning](https://firsthandweather.s3.amazonaws.com/3_Day_Snow_Accumulation_Forecast_Lake_Effect_Snow_Warning_7bc843150d.jpg)

If you're interested in the Buffalo Bills game on Sunday, snow is possible during the game, although the heaviest snow looks to be just south of the stadium and just south of Buffalo in general [north Buffalo will see snow in the low inches while the south side will see a foot plus].

Lake Effect Snow Feet

A high-impact lake-effect snow event will dump feet of snow around the Great Lakes over the next several days.

All blogs

Snow and severe weather possible for the Southeast

Santa Ana winds bring EXTREME fire risk to parts of Southern California today

Tsunami Warning for coastal Oregon and California, including San Francisco Bay

Increasing confidence in snow for the Southeast late Monday, early Tuesday

Light snow possible for parts of the South & Southeast, including north Georgia

Lake Effect Snow Warning, feet of snow expected for areas around the Great Lakes