The winter storm that is forecast to develop over Texas on Thursday will move east, increasing wintry precipitation chances for parts of the South and Southeast on Friday with some lingering precipitation early Saturday. There is still moderate to high uncertainty on the exact impacts, accumulations and precipitation types but there is strong confidence in wintry precipitation from northern Mississippi, northern Alabama, northern Georgia and Upstate South Carolina north into North Carolina and Tennessee on Friday - generally speaking, areas north of I-20 have a chance for some type of wintry precipitation at times Friday. The exact placement of the freezing line is still uncertain, but this will be ironed out over the next couple of days. There is also uncertainty in precipitation types - some guidance suggest precipitation could start out as snow and then a potential warm layer gets involved switching over the snow to more of a mix which complicates the forecast and would make accumulations tricky. All of this will be sorted out going forward but there's increased signal in the models that accumulations will occur for the aforementioned areas that will lead to dangerous travel conditions.
![American Model Ensembles Snow Accumulation Forecast](https://firsthandweather.s3.amazonaws.com/American_Model_Ensembles_Snow_Accumulation_Forecast_bd3ae42a30.jpg)
Keep checking back for updates!

American Model Ensembles Snow Accumulation Forecast

The winter storm that is forecast to develop over Texas on Thursday will move east, increasing wintry precipitation chances for parts of the South and Southeast on Friday with some lingering precipitation early Saturday. 

Winter storm to impact parts of the South and Southeast

There is increasing confidence in a developing winter storm over Texas and Oklahoma late this week [Thursday - Friday | January 9 - January 10] bringing wintry precipitation to the Southeast beginning Friday afternoon [January 10] into Saturday [January 11].

The signal in the models for snow [and even some ice] continue to increase the probability for snow generally along and north of I-20 from Texas to South Carolina. In fact, the probability of 1 inch or more of snow is higher than 50% from northern Alabama into northern Georgia and Upstate North Carolina, north into North Carolina and Tennessee.
![Probability of 1 inch or more of snow Friday and Saturday](https://firsthandweather.s3.amazonaws.com/Probability_of_1_inch_or_more_of_snow_Friday_and_Saturday_d3b0aceb3d.jpg)
![Probability of 1 inch or more of snow Friday and Saturday](https://firsthandweather.s3.amazonaws.com/Probability_of_1_inch_or_more_of_snow_Friday_and_Saturday_0f9e1d382b.jpg)
While confidence is increasing in wintry precipitation for these areas, the amounts and where the snow, ice and rain fall is less certain. These details will continue to be ironed out over the coming days. Keep checking back for updates over the coming days.

Probability of 1 inch or more of snow Friday and Saturday

There is increasing confidence in a developing winter storm over Texas and Oklahoma late this week [Thursday - Friday | January 9 - January 10] bringing wintry precipitation to the Southeast beginning Friday afternoon [January 10] into Saturday [January 11].

Southeast winter storm later this week

There is growing concern and increasing confidence in an impactful winter storm developing over parts of Oklahoma and Texas late this upcoming week. Over the past several days, there has been 'noise' within the models suggesting the potential for a developing storm system to pull moisture into a cold airmass across the Southern Plains, but the models were very inconsistent and all over the place with the specifics. This is not unusual given how far out this timeframe was along with the volatility of the weather pattern.

However, over the past 48-hours, models [while still struggling to handle the evolution of this weather pattern] are generally on board with a developing storm system over the Lone Star State late Wednesday [January 8] continuing into Thursday [January 9] and possibly the morning of Friday [January 10]. While it is too early to get into specifics, a developing storm system over Texas, paired with the lingering Arctic air, would likely lead to a mixed bag of precipitation ranging from coastal heavy rain and thunderstorms to freezing rain and sleet [possibly in northern parts of central Texas] and possibly a wet, moderate-heavy snow in northern Texas, extending into at least southern Oklahoma [any shifts north or south in the precipitation shield along with temperature profile will have significant impacts on who see what and how much - this will not be known for a couple to few more days].

The models have not only gotten more consistent with such a scenario but have ramped up the strength of the possible storm system as well as an uptick in available moisture that could lead to heavy precipitation rates that could allow for potentially significant ice and snow accumulations somewhere across Texas and parts of Oklahoma. At this time, an early guess would be northern Texas and far southern Oklahoma have the highest probability to see accumulating snow on Thursday [January 9] with a decent probability of ice in southern parts of northern Texas and potentially northern parts of central Texas. At this point, moderate confidence exists in an impactful winter storm that will disrupt travel and potentially power for areas that see ice.
![European Model](https://firsthandweather.s3.amazonaws.com/European_Model_c69aadcc5e.jpg)
![Canadian Model](https://firsthandweather.s3.amazonaws.com/Canadian_Model_f3c4556425.jpg)
![American Model](https://firsthandweather.s3.amazonaws.com/American_Model_2a15ff3fa2.jpg)
This same system would then move east impacting parts of the Deep South and Southeast late Friday into next weekend where a mixed bag of precipitation is also possible along with eventual impacts possible for the Mid-Atlantic and maybe Northeast late weekend into early that following week. It is possible parts of the Mid-South down into northern parts of Mississippi, Alabama and Georgia could see wintry troubles next weekend but this is not set in stone.

At this point, while it is too early to get into specifics, it is not too early to begin to prepare for the potential for wintry precipitation this upcoming week. This storm has the potential to be a significant winter storm for parts of the country, including southern locations. Please keep checking back for updates and follow trusted sources for this evolving weather pattern and possible winter storm.

Winter storm

There is growing concern and increasing confidence in an impactful winter storm developing over parts of Oklahoma and Texas late this upcoming week moving into the Deep South and Southeast next weekend.

Growing concern and increasing confidence in winter storm next week

There's increasing potential and confidence for a winter storm this upcoming weekend into early next week [January 4-6] beginning across parts of the Central Plains initially then extending into the Ohio Valley and eventually the Mid-Atlantic.

Widespread moderate [to at times heavy] impactful snow is possible for the Central Plains into the Mississippi Valley [north of I-70], extending through the Ohio Valley and possibly the Mid-Atlantic early next week. There's also an icing risk for areas farther south across parts of the Mid-South. Freezing rain and/or sleet is possible from southern Kansas, possibly extending into far northern Oklahoma, into the Ozarks and into the Tennessee Valley and possibly into the Southern Appalachians.
![Winter storm](https://firsthandweather.s3.amazonaws.com/Winter_storm_0f86ac228c.jpg)
Depending on how much freezing rain falls for these areas, there's the potential for some power outages and tree damage in areas along with disruption to travel. It's important to note the track of the low will be critical in determining who see what/which type[s] of precipitation. Keep checking back for updates with this evolving forecast.

Winter storm file picture

Winter storm to bring heavy snow, ice to a large swath of the country this weekend into early next week.

Winter storm to bring heavy snow, ice to a large swath of the country

Confidence continues to increase in the potential for a prolonged, dangerous Arctic outbreak to blast areas east of the Rockies after the first week of January. Models are in strong agreement of a pattern favoring the polar vortex to be disrupted and move possibly into the United States, delivering a blast of very cold air that could see several reinforcements of chilly air shots beginning week two of January. 
![Polar Vortex](https://firsthandweather.s3.amazonaws.com/Polar_Vortex_1db279ce21.jpg)
While confidence is high in this potential, there are some details that are less known such as how cold it will get, where the coldest of the air resides and the exact timing of the cold blasts. 
![What we know, what we don't know](https://firsthandweather.s3.amazonaws.com/What_we_know_what_we_don_t_know_dc3e3e942d.jpg)
It's unknown if the southern jet will come into play, creating wintry precipitation as far south as the Gulf of Mexico but this will continue to be monitored. Even weak system with minimal moisture can create havoc in such setups. Don't freak out, just keep a close eye on the forecast and begin preparing now for prolonged cold in January for most areas east of the Rockies.

What we know, what we don't know

Confidence continues to increase in the potential for a prolonged, dangerous Arctic outbreak to blast areas east of the Rockies after the first week of January. 

Dangerous Arctic Outbreak In January

A Particularly Dangerous Situation [PDS] Tornado Watch has been issued until 9:00pm for southeastern Texas, Louisiana, southeastern Arkansas and western Mississippi.
![PDS Tornado Watch until 9PM](https://firsthandweather.s3.amazonaws.com/PDS_Tornado_Watch_until_9_PM_e24822b04a.JPG)
This type of Tornado Watch is the strongest Tornado Watch possible and means large, violent, long-track tornadoes are possible. If you live in this PDS Tornado Watch, please make sure you're weather aware today. Have multiple sources to receive accurate, timely weather alerts and information from and go over your emergency plan now to ensure you're able to act swiftly if a Tornado Warning is issued.

PDS Tornado Watch until 9PM

A Particularly Dangerous Situation [PDS] Tornado Watch has been issued until 9:00pm for southeastern Texas, Louisiana, southeastern Arkansas and western Mississippi.

All blogs

Winter storm to impact parts of the South and Southeast

Southeast winter storm later this week

Growing concern and increasing confidence in winter storm next week

Winter storm to bring heavy snow, ice to a large swath of the country

Dangerous Arctic Outbreak In January

PDS Tornado Watch issued: large violent, long-track tornadoes possible