A strengthening ridge will build into Alaska early this week, setting the stage for an Arctic air intrusion into the Lower 48 later this week and next week. Downstream of the Alaskan ridge, a mid-level low/shortwave will slide down Canada's west coast into the Pacific Northwest mid-week. A subsequent feature, coming in behind the first, will act to ensure that a large-scale trough remains across the western U.S. through this weekend. 

The Arctic air has already begun to spill into Montana, as the state, along with parts of Wyoming, Idaho, and much of North Dakota, brace for a multi-day winter storm. In fact, snow has already developed across Montana, and many areas will pick up 1-2 feet of new snow. 

The southward and eastward progression of the Arctic front will be rather slow at first. Most areas east of the Rockies will experience above-to-well-above-average temperatures before the front begins to push across the northern and central Plains Thursday-Friday. 

![Friday, October 27, 2023 – High temperature Forecast](https://firsthandweather.s3.amazonaws.com/firday_temps_09acec2d1c.png)

Figure 1: Friday, October 27, 2023 – High temperature Forecast

With deep-layer southwesterly flow well-established ahead of the front, areas from the Southern Plains, mid-Mississippi Valley, and even parts of the Midwest will remain under a flooding risk this week, with moderate-to-heavy rain expected. 

![October 25-30, 2023 –  5-Day Rainfall Forecast](https://firsthandweather.s3.amazonaws.com/5_day_rainfall_forecast_1ac4a8cc10.png)

Figure 2: October 25-30, 2023 –  5-Day Rainfall Forecast

The Arctic air mass will struggle to push past the Mississippi River before this weekend. But as the Alaskan ridge de-amplifies a bit and slides eastward this weekend, the western U.S. trough will also progress eastward. That'll 1) allow conditions to dry out in the central U.S. and 2) the stubborn Southeast ridge to begin breaking down. 

A couple northern stream features will help reinforce a trough over the eastern U.S. early next week, finally allowing the colder air to make it into the New England, Mid-Atlantic, Ohio Valley, Tennessee Valley, and Mid-South just in time for Halloween. 

![Monday, October 30, 2023 – High temperature Forecast](https://firsthandweather.s3.amazonaws.com/monday_high_temperatures_5b6e6a39d6.png)

Figure 3: Monday, October 30, 2023 – High temperature Forecast

The Southeast will remain the only holdouts, but Alabama, Georgia, the Carolinas, and northern Florida will finally have a strong cold front push through either on Halloween or the day after. So, it's a bit of a toss-up as to whether those areas have a toasty Halloween or not. But before then, some days will feel more like summer or early spring than what you'd expect in mid-autumn. Also, don't expect any beneficial rainfall until that ridge breaks down. 

October 30-November 3, 2023 – 6-10 Day Temperature Outlook

6-10 tempp outlook.png

Arctic Airmass to Bring Taste of Winter

An unusual June weather pattern will trigger a severe weather outbreak across the South tonight as a potential derecho brings widespread damaging winds and tornadoes.

Thunderstorms are already ongoing early in the day but more widespread, high-impact severe storms are expected later today and tonight from eastern Texas, southern Arkansas and northern Louisiana, east across Mississippi, Alabama, Georgia, into northern Florida and southern South Carolina. These areas have the potential to see a few rounds of severe storms, including widespread severe wind event, that could lead to substantial wind damage. There's also the possibility of large hail and even tornadoes, some of which could be strong—EF-2 or greater.

Because of the numerous coverage of storms and high intensity storms, the Storm Prediction Center has a moderate severe risk, a level 4 of 5, for parts of the South for today and tonight. This level 4 risk area extends from northeastern Louisiana into central and southern Mississippi, central and southern Alabama, and southwestern Georgia.

![Today's severe risk](https://firsthandweather.s3.amazonaws.com/Today_s_severe_risk_cbbb82a683.jpeg)

If you live in or near the severe risk, make sure you have a way to get timely, accurate warning information today and during the overnight hours.

Today's severe risk

Moderate severe risk today: strong tornadoes, destructive winds, and large hail likely.

Severe outbreak expected across the South tonight

Tropical Storm Arlene formed in the eastern Gulf of Mexico just as the 2023 Atlantic Hurricane Season kicked off, becoming the first named storm of the 2023 season—officially being classified as Tropical Depression 2 on Thursday, June 1 and being designated Arlene on Friday, June 2. 

The good news is that the lifespan of Arlene looks short-lived as the storm slowly moves south a couple hundred miles off the west coast of Florida. The storm is not expected to undergo further strengthening and is forecast to weaken Friday through the weekend as strong winds higher up in the atmosphere rip the system apart as it slowly drifts south and east toward Cuba.

**Tropical Storm Arlene Forecas**

![ Tropical Storm Arlene Forecas](https://firsthandweather.s3.amazonaws.com/Tropical_Storm_Arlene_Forecas_bb77a9b9b1.png)

Despite the hostile atmospheric conditions leading to weakening of the system, Florida will still see some rain, gusty winds, and rough seas from Arlene Friday into the weekend, but no widespread, significant impacts are currently forecast.

**Rainfall Forecast**

![Screenshot 2023-06-02 at 3.06.37 PM.png](https://firsthandweather.s3.amazonaws.com/Screenshot_2023_06_02_at_3_06_37_PM_1dc87c06c0.png)

Visible imagery of Arlene

Arlene becomes the first tropical storm of the season in the Gulf of Mexico.

Where's Tropical Storm Arlene headed?

The latest update from the National Hurricane Center has increased the chance for tropical development in the northeastern Gulf of Mexico to a high chance as early as later today.

The system of interest, Invest 91L, now has a high chance of formation. The NHC gives the low pressure in the northeastern Gulf a 70% chance for development over the next 48 hours.

**NHC Tropical Outlook**

![NHC Tropical Outlook](https://firsthandweather.s3.amazonaws.com/NHC_Tropical_Outlook_4b5453c6a6.png)

As of Thursday early afternoon, showers and thunderstorms associated with the low pressure have become increasingly organized and it appears environmental conditions will favor further organization and a tropical depression or low-end tropical storm could develop as the low pressure is over very warm surface waters that are between 80 to 85 degrees and wind shear has lessened. That development could occur as early as later this afternoon.

The satellite appearance of the system has really improved overnight and Hurricane Hunters plan on investigating the area later today and again early Friday.

Regardless of development, Florida can expect heavy rainfall of a widespread 2-3 inches that could lead to minor flooding along with strong, gusty winds late this week and weekend.

If this system develops into a tropical storm, it would be named Arlene. Today, June 1, is the start of the Atlantic Hurricane Season.

NHC Tropical Outlook

The low pressure in the Gulf of Mexico has a 70% chance for tropical development.

A tropical storm could develop in the Gulf today

The latest update from the National Hurricane Center has substantially increased the chance for tropical development in the northeastern Gulf of Mexico this week.

The system of interest, Invest 91L, now has a medium chance of formation this week. The NHC gives the low pressure in the northeastern Gulf a 50% chance for development over the next 2 days.

**NHC Tropical Outlook as of Thursday morning for next 7-days**

![NHC Tropical Outlook as of Thursday morning for next 7-days](https://firsthandweather.s3.amazonaws.com/NHC_Tropical_Outlook_as_of_Thursday_morning_for_next_7_days_99f620ffe1.png)

As of Thursday morning, showers and thunderstorms associated with the low pressure have become increasingly organized and it appears environmental conditions could favor further organization and a tropical depression or low-end tropical storm could develop as the low pressure is over very warm surface waters that are between 80 to 85 degrees and wind shear has lessened.

The satellite appearance of the system has really improved overnight and Hurricane Hunters plan on investigating the area later Thursday and again early Friday.

Regardless of development, Florida can expect heavy rainfall of a widespread 2-3 inches that could lead to minor flooding along with strong, gusty winds.

If this system develops into a tropical storm, it would be named Arlene. Today, June 1, is the start of the Atlantic Hurricane Season.

NHC Tropical Outlook as of Thursday morning for next 7-days

The tropical disturbance now has a medium chance of formation this week at 50%.

Substantial increase in chance for tropical development in the Gulf this week

A tropical disturbance in the Gulf of Mexico is being monitored for the low-end potential for development this week and weekend. This system will bring periods of heavy rainfall and gusty winds to Florida from midweek through this upcoming weekend, favoring central and southern parts of the state.

This developing low pressure over the central Gulf of Mexico has a low-end chance for development according to the National Hurricane Center. They give this system only a 20% chance of development over the next 7 days. Nonetheless, the NHC is monitoring this area of disturbed weather as conditions will be marginally conducive for development.

**National Hurricane Center 7-Day Forecast**

![ National Hurricane Center 7-Day Forecast](https://firsthandweather.s3.amazonaws.com/National_Hurricane_Center_7_Day_Forecast_08c2e53506.png)

Regardless of tropical development, impacts are expected for Florida. Heavy rain could lead to minor flooding across the Florida Peninsula where a widespread 1-3 inches of rain is forecast with isolated higher amounts farther south approaching half a foot.

**7-Day Rainfall Forecast**

![7-Day Rainfall Forecast](https://firsthandweather.s3.amazonaws.com/7_Day_Rainfall_Forecast_be4ab5be77.png)

Wind gusts will generally be in the 20 to 30 mph range this weekend as the low pressure treks across the Florida Peninsula. The strongest winds look to occur late this weekend along the East Coast of the Florida Peninsula as the low appears to organize further over the warm Gulf Stream off the Southeast Coast.

Despite the only low-end chance for development, this time of the year in such warm waters, any system needs to be closely monitored. Keep checking back for updates.

The Atlantic Hurricane Season begins on Thursday, June 1.

 National Hurricane Center 7-Day Forecast

Low pressure in the Gulf is being monitored for the low-end potential for development this week.

All blogs

Arctic Airmass to Bring Taste of Winter

Severe outbreak expected across the South tonight

Where's Tropical Storm Arlene headed?

A tropical storm could develop in the Gulf today

Substantial increase in chance for tropical development in the Gulf this week

Gulf disturbance will bring rain & wind to Florida this week