A significant severe weather and tornado event is forecast for Saturday [December 28] with several rounds of damaging storms possible from east Texas to Alabama with the severe threat extending north across Tennessee and east into western Georgia.

All ingredients are in place to support tornadoes [some of which could be strong - EF2+, long-track], damaging wind gusts up to 80 mph and golf ball size hail. Because of the significant severe risk and forecast coverage of the storms, a level 3 [out of 5] severe risk exists from central Louisiana, east across Mississippi, extending into west-central Alabama [far southeastern Arkansas is also in this risk level]. A level 3 severe risk means numerous severe storms are likely on Saturday that could produce significant severe weather. There's a level 2 and level 1 severe risk that extends outward from the level 3 risk area. These areas also have the potential to see isolated to scattered severe storms on Saturday. Significant severe weather is also possible in the level 2 and level 1 risk areas, but the coverage of severe storms will be less.

**Saturday's severe risk and hazards**
![Saturday's severe risk and hazards](https://firsthandweather.s3.amazonaws.com/Saturday_s_severe_risk_and_hazards_4659dbbb8a.jpg)

**Saturday's highest tornado risk area**
![Saturday's highest tornado risk area](https://firsthandweather.s3.amazonaws.com/Saturday_s_highest_tornado_risk_area_034becd236.jpg)

Severe storms get going by late Saturday morning and will continue through the afternoon and evening hours, continuing into the nighttime hours with some areas seeing a few to several rounds of storms, which means some areas could see several severe weather warnings issued throughout the duration of the day Saturday.

The severe risk shifts east overnight into Sunday [December 29] with the severe risk continuing on Sunday across the Southeast, Mid-Atlantic into the heart of the Appalachians. All modes of severe weather are possible on Sunday with tornadoes, damaging winds and hail all possible. There's a level 2 and level 1 [out of 5] severe risk Sunday. The level 2 severe risk [where severe storm coverage will be highest] extends from Georgia into the Carolinas into south-central Virginia.

**Sunday's severe risk and hazards**
![Sunday's severe risk and hazards](https://firsthandweather.s3.amazonaws.com/Sunday_s_severe_risk_and_hazards_8c4df99bb5.jpg)

**Sunday's highest severe risk area**
![Sunday's highest severe risk area](https://firsthandweather.s3.amazonaws.com/Sunday_s_highest_severe_risk_area_5ffbf5d560.jpg)

Please remain weather aware over the weekend!

Saturday's severe risk and hazards

A significant severe weather and tornado event is forecast for the last weekend of December extending from Texas to the Carolinas.

Tornado, severe weather outbreak possible this weekend across the South

The potential exists for a high-impact weather day across parts of Texas, Oklahoma, Louisiana and Arkansas. All the ingredients are coming together for afternoon and evening storms on Thursday to produce tornadoes [some of which could be strong across southeastern Texas, including the Houston Metro which sits within that risk], damaging wind gusts, large hail and heavy rain that could lead to areas of flash flooding.

**Thursday afternoon and evening's severe risk and hazards**
![Thursday afternoon and evening's severe risk and hazards](https://firsthandweather.s3.amazonaws.com/Thursday_afternoon_and_evening_s_severe_risk_and_hazards_8106fd295f.jpg)

**Thursday afternoon and evening's strong tornado risk area**
![Thursday afternoon and evening's greatest tornado risk area](https://firsthandweather.s3.amazonaws.com/Thursday_afternoon_and_evening_s_greatest_tornado_risk_area_77138f73f8.jpg)

Additional severe storms are possible across parts of the South on Friday and Saturday. Please remain weather aware!

Thursday afternoon and evening's severe risk and hazards

The potential exists for a high-impact weather day across parts of Texas, Oklahoma, Louisiana and Arkansas. 

Severe storms, tornadoes likely the day after Christmas

There is a brief shot for a low-impact freezing rain event for parts of the Carolinas Monday night into early Christmas Eve morning. A cold air damming event will establish itself across the region with high pressure centered over the Northeast, allowing chilly air to drain into the Carolinas and northeastern Georgia. At the same time, an area of low pressure will begin to form off the Southeast Coast Monday into Christmas Eve. Enough moisture will move westward into the Carolinas, overlapping the cold temperatures late Monday night into early Christmas Eve morning for the possibility of wintry precipitation.

This event, if it happens, will be short-lived, and relatively unimpactful but there could be a few icy spots on elevated surfaces along with trees and powerlines so it needs to be mentioned because of how many people will hit the roads for Christmas along with the possibility of this icing at airports - on airplane wings, etc. Looking at the soundings, it appears enough cold air will be in place at the surface to support a brief window of freezing rain, and with how much dry air is in place, it could be more freezing mist/drizzle than anything. These soundings suggest either freezing rain/mist/drizzle for locations where the surface temperatures are at or below 32 or rain where temperatures are above 32 - there is too much warm air above the surface to support snow or sleet.

**Sounding in central North Carolina early Tuesday morning**
![Sounding in central North Carolina early Tuesday morning](https://firsthandweather.s3.amazonaws.com/Sounding_in_central_North_Carolina_early_Tuesday_morning_05e79fe79d.jpg)

The highest probability of a brief freezing rain event looks to be near the I-85 corridor in North Carolina - including the Triad sometime between 10pm Monday through 10am Christmas Eve. Please note, it will not be a continuous freezing rain during this 12-hour window. Temperatures will also be near freezing and the best moisture will be closer to the coast where temperatures are above freezing so significant icing is not forecast. Temperatures climb safely above freezing by late morning on Christmas Eve and moisture departs the region.

**Future radar Monday night**
![ Future radar Monday night](https://firsthandweather.s3.amazonaws.com/Future_radar_Monday_night_11f5a45bfd.jpg)

**Future radar early Christmas Eve morning**
![Future radar early Christmas Eve morning](https://firsthandweather.s3.amazonaws.com/Future_radar_early_Christmas_Eve_morning_5424a0d68b.jpg)

**Future radar mid-Christmas Eve morning**
![Future radar mid-Christmas Eve morning](https://firsthandweather.s3.amazonaws.com/Future_radar_mid_Christmas_Eve_morning_d96edeb6e6.jpg)

It should be noted, if any residual moisture remains on roadways Christmas Eve night, it would refreezing by Christmas morning but there should be enough dry air and wind in place to evaporate most of the moisture on roadways.

Freezing rain picture

There is a brief shot for a low-impact freezing rain event for parts of the Carolinas Monday night into early Christmas Eve morning.

Freezing rain possible Monday night into Christmas Eve morning for parts of the Carolinas

A strong cold front is sweeping east across the Eastern United States. Behind this cold front, modified Arctic air will send temperatures plummeting allowing for any lingering moisture to changeover to snow.

Ahead of the cold front, it's quite warm for December. In fact, ingredients are in place for spring-like thunderstorms as the cold front clashes into the warmer, moist airmass. Isolated severe storms are possible this afternoon and evening [Tuesday] including the potential for a tornado or two. There's a severe risk extending from the north-central Gulf Coast into northern Georgia including the Atlanta Metro.

**Today's severe risk**
![Today's severe risk](https://firsthandweather.s3.amazonaws.com/Today_s_severe_risk_c316af6dcf.jpg)

As the cold front continues to move east and south, much colder air will rush in behind the cold front. This colder air will allow for the brief potential of rain changing to snow on Wednesday across parts of eastern Tennessee, northern Georgia and western North Carolina. The big question is the timing of cold air and moisture - will moisture remain in place when the atmosphere is cold enough to support snow. At this time, it appears there will be just enough lingering moisture to support a brief chance for a few snowflakes for the aforementioned areas. The favored locations that have the best chance for some snow include the mountains of eastern Tennessee/western North Carolina and the mountains of far northeastern Georgia late Wednesday morning into early Wednesday afternoon [snow levels could fall as low as 1,500 to 1,000 feet by lunchtime Wednesday]. A few lingering mountain snow showers are possible later in the day Wednesday as the flow favors enough lift and moisture due to the mountains to squeeze out some flakes. 

**Future radar late Wednesday morning**
![Future radar late Wednesday morning](https://firsthandweather.s3.amazonaws.com/Future_radar_late_Wednesday_morning_89cb7650ff.jpg)

**Future radar early Wednesday afternoon**
![Future radar early Wednesday afternoon](https://firsthandweather.s3.amazonaws.com/Future_radar_early_Wednesday_afternoon_8d46e6d2a7.jpg)

Light accumulations are possible above 1,500 feet where a dusting to 1 inch is possible with a few to several inches possible for the highest peaks along the Tennessee/North Carolina state line by Wednesday night. The greatest chance to see upwards of 5 inches of snow is forecast above 5,000 feet.

**Snow accumulation forecast**
![Snow accumulation forecast](https://firsthandweather.s3.amazonaws.com/Snow_accumulation_forecast_be7ea5abc8.jpg)

It should be noted, if less moisture is available in the post-frontal airmass, snow chances decrease; if more moisture lingers, snow chances and amounts would increase.

Snow accumulation forecast

A strong cold front will spark severe storms and drop temperatures cold enough to support snow across the Southeast. 

Snow and severe weather possible for the Southeast

A Santa Ana wind event will bring an 'extreme' fire danger to parts of Southern California throughout the day today [Tuesday] which is the highest possible wildfire risk. Areas included in this extreme risk include parts of Los Angeles and Ventura counties where wildfires that ignite will spread rapidly and erratically posing a significant risk to property and life.

**Today's fire risk**
![Today's fire risk](https://firsthandweather.s3.amazonaws.com/Today_s_fire_risk_51a0e52647.jpg)

Due to the extreme fire risk, the Los Angeles National Weather Service issued a rare 'particularly dangerous situation' Red Flag Warning from the east side of Santa Maria south through Los Angeles and Ventura counties and all the way down to the Mexico border on the east side of San Diego.

**Red Flag Warning**
![Red Flag Warning](https://firsthandweather.s3.amazonaws.com/Red_Flag_Warning_008b7b3219.jpg)

The extreme fire conditions are fueled by strong, gusty Santa Ana winds gusting between 40-60 mph [with some higher gusts in the mountain canyons on the western facing slops up to 90 mph in isolated instances], paired with dry vegetation and low relative humidity.

These Santa Ana winds are setting up as a strong area of high pressure builds over the Great Basin along with relatively lower atmospheric pressure off the coast of California. This setup favors winds to flow [blow] from the high-pressure system [over the Great Basin] toward the lower pressure [off the coast of California], with winds as they flow from east to west being forced up and over the mountains, and these winds are enhanced as they're squeezed at the ridges of the mountains, rushing down the west sides of the mountains in Southern California. The winds as they come down the west sides of the mountains tend to dry things out and warm it up, so it leads to warm temperatures and very low relative humidity. This type of environment creates the extreme fire conditions that're forecast today. 

The weather pattern that typically favors the development of Santa Ana winds events tends to occur during the months of October through March.

Today's fire risk

A Santa Ana wind event will bring an 'extreme' fire danger to parts of Southern California throughout the day today which is the highest possible wildfire risk. Areas included in this extreme risk include parts of Los Angeles and Ventura counties.

Santa Ana winds bring EXTREME fire risk to parts of Southern California today

A Tsunami Warning is in effect for coastal Oregon and the coast of Northern California, including the San Francisco Bay after a magnitude 7.0 earthquake occurred just off the coast of Northern California. The earthquake was about 40 miles WNW of Petrolia, California at around a depth of 4/10ths of a mile [so a very shallow earthquake].

**7.0 Earthquake**
![7.3 Earthquake](https://firsthandweather.s3.amazonaws.com/7_3_Earthquake_5703e29432.png)

**Tsunami Warning**
![Tsunami Warning](https://firsthandweather.s3.amazonaws.com/Tsunami_Warning_a7957525de.jpg)

If you live or are located anywhere from Davenport, California [10 miles north of Santa Cruz] to the Douglas/Lane, Oregon line [10 miles southwest of Florence], move inland immediately. A tsunami with significant inundation is possible or is already occurring. Tsunamis are a series of dangerous waves that can occur for hours after the initial wave and the first wave may not be the largest.

This is a developing, breaking situation. Keep checking back for updates. 


Tsunami Warning

A Tsunami Warning is in effect for coastal Oregon and the coast of Northern California, including the San Francisco Bay after a magnitude 7.0 earthquake occurred just off the coast of Northern California. 

All blogs

Tornado, severe weather outbreak possible this weekend across the South

Severe storms, tornadoes likely the day after Christmas

Freezing rain possible Monday night into Christmas Eve morning for parts of the Carolinas

Snow and severe weather possible for the Southeast

Santa Ana winds bring EXTREME fire risk to parts of Southern California today

Tsunami Warning for coastal Oregon and California, including San Francisco Bay