The official start of the 2023 Atlantic Hurricane Season is a little over a week out, but the National Hurricane Center is already monitoring a broad area of low pressure near the Bahamas for potential of development this week.

This broad area of low pressure is associated with unorganized showers and storms and currently has a low chance for development per the latest outlook from the NHC. The current odds for development are around 10% over the next 48 hours and next 7 days.

**NHC 7-Day Tropical Outlook**

![NHC 7-day tropical outlook](https://firsthandweather.s3.amazonaws.com/NHC_7_day_tropical_outlook_46bcd08366.png)

It does appear this disturbance will gradually encounter an environment less favorable for development this upcoming week as it moves over the southwestern Atlantic.

While the hurricane season doesn't begin until June 1, tropical systems in May aren't very unusual but systems that do develop in May typically don't intensify too much.

Firsthand Weather will continue to monitor this disturbance and the Tropical Atlantic Basin over the coming days and weeks/months. While the current forecast calls for a slightly below normal season, it only takes one system impacting coastal areas to cause devastating impacts. If you live along the Gulf Coast or East Coast, it's best to prepare now in case you're impacted by a tropical system this season.

NHC 7-day tropical outlook

The National Hurricane Center is already monitoring a broad area of low pressure near the Bahamas for potential of development this week.

Tropical disturbance near the Bahamas being monitored for development

We've flipped the calendar to May, which is the last full month of spring and just a month away from the official stat of the Atlantic Hurricane Season.

For the month of May, the Climate Prediction center suggests some areas may have to wait just a little longer to feel like spring or summer. In their recently released temperature outlook, they favor below average temperatures for the California and parts of the Desert Southwest. This comes on the heels of what's been an unusually active, cool winter and early spring for the state of California. The outlook also suggests below average temperatures for parts of the Mid-South into the Tennessee and Ohio Valleys.

It looks like warmer temperatures are favored for the Pacific and Inland Northwest, New England and Florida where the odds are in favor of temperatures feeling a little more like early summer than spring.

**May temperature outlook**

![May temperature outlook](https://firsthandweather.s3.amazonaws.com/May_temperature_outlook_4db9911ff6.png)

Along with the cooler temperatures expected for California, above average precipitation is expected as the region stays in an active weather pattern. While this is great news for the decades long drought, it could exacerbate flooding issues in the state as snow continues to melt leading to runoff that will cause flooding downstream. Above average precipitation is also favored from Texas to the Southeast, which is much needed.

 Parts of Texas are in an exceptional drought (worse drought conditions possible) with parts of Florida included in an extreme drought. To help mitigate the wildfire potential, rain is needed so it's good to see above average precipitation favored for these areas. Farther north across the Northern Plains, Midwest, and Great Lakes, below average precipitation is expected.

**May precipitation outlook**

![May precipitation outlook](https://firsthandweather.s3.amazonaws.com/May_precipitation_outlook_de68590e25.png)

May temperature outlook

May's temperature and precipitation outlook

Here's what to expect during the month of May

Massive hail, hurricane-force wind gusts, and tornadoes are possible across the Lone Star State this afternoon and evening. 

The most populated areas are under the gun for these damaging thunderstorms later this afternoon and evening. The entire I-35 corridor is under an enhanced (level 3 of 5) severe risk, including the Dallas-Fort Worth Metroplex, Waco, Austin, and San Antonio. Other major metros are included in a slight (level 2 of 5) severe risk, including Houston, Corpus Christi, and Brownsville.

**Today's severe risk**

![Today's severe risk](https://firsthandweather.s3.amazonaws.com/Today_s_severe_risk_13f84b5e63.jpeg)

**Today's tornado risk**

![Today's tornado risk](https://firsthandweather.s3.amazonaws.com/Today_s_tornado_risk_a51f99477a.jpeg)

**Today's hail risk**

[Link](link)
![Today's hail risk](https://firsthandweather.s3.amazonaws.com/Today_s_hail_risk_7bc3240182.jpeg)

**Today's wind risk**

![ Today's wind risk](https://firsthandweather.s3.amazonaws.com/Today_s_wind_risk_862598fffc.jpeg)

Thunderstorms initially develop near or just west of the I-35 corridor early to midafternoon. These initial discrete storms will have the potential to produce hail potentially the size of softballs, tornadoes, and 75-80 mph wind gusts. Storms begin to merge into a line late afternoon and evening near and east of the I-35 corridor. These storms will produce large hail to around golf ball size, widespread damaging winds around 75 mph, and isolated tornadoes. 

Today's severe risk

Massive hail, hurricane-force wind gusts, and tornadoes are possible across the Lone Star State this afternoon and evening. 

Damaging thunderstorms expected for Texas today

Severe storms are expected this afternoon and evening in Texas and Florida. These storms will produce heavy rainfall that could lead to minor flooding, tornadoes, large hail, and damaging winds.

The greatest concern for tornadoes and very large hail exists across parts of northern and central Texas where very large hail, larger than 2 inches in diameter, and strong tornadoes, stronger than EF-2, are possible today. This severe risk includes the Dallas-Fort Worth Metroplex and Waco. This is where there is a level 2, enhanced, severe risk. A lower severe risk extends down into Austin, San Antonio, and Houston.

**Texas severe risk today**

![ Texas severe risk today](https://firsthandweather.s3.amazonaws.com/Texas_severe_risk_today_99f027e5bf.jpeg)

**Texas tornado risk today**

![Texas tornado risk today](https://firsthandweather.s3.amazonaws.com/Texas_tornado_risk_today_f40602c6bc.jpeg)

There is also an elevated severe risk across Florida where there is a level 2, enhanced, severe risk. Damaging winds are a big concern with isolated tornadoes and hail possible. Orlando is included in this level 2 risk. There is also a severe risk for Tampa, Miami, and Jacksonville. 

**Florida severe risk today**

![Florida severe risk today](https://firsthandweather.s3.amazonaws.com/Florida_severe_risk_today_dc8f9e7fa5.jpeg)

The severe risk continues on Thursday expanding into the Deep South and the Gulf Coast states. Isolated tornadoes, damaging winds, large hail, and heavy rain are expected. The risk area extends from southeastern Texas into Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, Georgia, and parts of Florida.

**Thursday severe risk**

![Thursday severe risk](https://firsthandweather.s3.amazonaws.com/Thursday_severe_risk_77a2f0bda9.png)

Another day of severe weather is expected Friday from the Carolinas down to Florida with a new severe threat emerging across the Lone Star State.

**Friday severe risk**

![Friday severe risk](https://firsthandweather.s3.amazonaws.com/Friday_severe_risk_f5b3ee67c9.png)

 Texas severe risk today

Severe weather possible for the South over the next few days

High impact severe weather possible for Texas and Florida

A big cool down has arrived for areas east of the Rockies after a potent cold front swept through. The cooler temperatures behind the cold front are expected to remain in place with reinforcing pushes of cooler air through the end of the month, possibly continuing into early May.

This comes after quite a bit of recent warmth and a warm winter for many of these areas. Farther west, the pattern flips and much of the western United States will see temperatures surge to above average values after a chilly winter.

The Climate Prediction Center's 6-10 and 8-14 day temperatures outlook favors below average temperatures for areas east of the Rockies with temperatures expected to stay above average for the West.

**6-10 day temperature outlook**

![6-10 day temperature outlook](https://firsthandweather.s3.amazonaws.com/6_10_day_temperature_outlook_6349689d9c.png)

**8-14 day temperature outlook**

![8-14 day temperature outlook](https://firsthandweather.s3.amazonaws.com/8_14_day_temperature_outlook_a989ebc5e1.png)

High temperatures across the South and Southeast are expected to stay in the 60s and 70s with 40s and 50s for highs farther north into New England, the Great Lakes, and Midwest. Highs across the Desert Southwest will climb into the 90s and 100s with 80s as far north as the Pacific Northwest.

Temperature departure from average

April chill to bring below average temperatures to the eastern half of the country while the west warms up

April chill to bring below average temperatures to the eastern half of the country

Severe storms are expected this afternoon and evening from the Great Lake to the Gulf Coast as a cold front sweeps into a warm, moist, unstable airmass. All the ingredients are in place for strong storms to become severe later today producing all modes of severe weather, including tornadoes, large hail, and damaging winds. While all the ingredients are in place for all modes of severe weather, the tornado risk is not as high as it was earlier this month of these areas. There's a greater concern for damaging winds and large hail.

**Saturday's severe risk**

![Saturday's severe risk](https://firsthandweather.s3.amazonaws.com/Saturday_s_severe_risk_df25fb1700.jpeg)

![Saturday's severe risk](https://firsthandweather.s3.amazonaws.com/Saturday_s_severe_risk_e041673e4b.jpeg)

Because of the severe threat this afternoon and evening, there's a severe risk from Wisconsin to Texas. The highest sever risk extends from the mid-Mississippi Valley into the Deep South where there's a level 3 (enhanced - level 3/5) severe risk [orange shaded area] and a level 2 (slight - level 2/5) severe risk [yellow shaded area].

**Sunday's severe risk**

![Sunday's severe risk](https://firsthandweather.s3.amazonaws.com/Sunday_s_severe_risk_101f810c9e.jpeg)

The severe threat shifts east tomorrow but begins to slowly diminish. The main concern is gusty winds from thunderstorms that could cause isolated areas of damage. There's a level 1 (marginal - level 1/5) severe risk [dark green shaded area] from the Great Lakes into the Mid-Atlantic, Carolinas, and Florida.

Saturday's severe risk

Severe storms are expected from the Great Lake to the Gulf Coast. The ingredients are in place for tornadoes, large hail, damaging winds. 

All blogs

Tropical disturbance near the Bahamas being monitored for development

Here's what to expect during the month of May

Damaging thunderstorms expected for Texas today

High impact severe weather possible for Texas and Florida

April chill to bring below average temperatures to the eastern half of the country

Another round of severe storms and tornadoes Saturday