An organizing disturbance over the central Caribbean is forecast to intensify into tropical storm, possibly hurricane, Sara over the coming days.

The National Hurricane Center gives this system in the Caribbean a high, 90%, chance for development into a tropical cyclone this week. The environmental conditions, such as light wind shear and anomalously warm water temperatures, do favor this development and favor additional strengthening late this week into the upcoming weekend over the Caribbean. Guidance is bullish on this system becoming a hurricane.

**Tropical disturbance in the Caribbean [90% chance to develop]**
![Tropical disturbance in the Caribbean](https://firsthandweather.s3.amazonaws.com/Tropical_disturbance_in_the_Caribbean_43ee258a59.JPG)

As the system develops this week into the upcoming weekend, it'll remain in a region with weak steering currents, so it'll likely initially remain in the western or central Caribbean or near the central American coast, possibly looping or meandering, before a more northern track ensues next week as steering currents strengthen as a trough drops into central parts of the United States. This northern track will allow the system, likely Sara at that point, into the southern Gulf of Mexico early next week.

As the aforementioned trough moves east, the system could then move more eastward-northeastward toward Florida sometime around the middle of next week.

While a Florida impact is not a certainty, because the system has yet to develop, it's still several days out, and any land/terrain encounters would impact the intensity of the system and possibly affect the overall track, guidance is suggesting this is a realistic possibility. It's also too early to identify the intensity of what will become Sara and the intensity of the system if it makes a landfall but this will become clearer over the coming days.

Keep checking back for updates if you live along the western coast of Florida from the Panhandle to the Keys.

Tropical disturbance in the Caribbean

A system developing in the Caribbean could become a hurricane, possibly impacting Florida mid next week.

Developing hurricane could impact Florida next week

While severe weather is possible at any given time throughout the year, we've entered what's climatologically the secondary severe weather season where the frequency of severe weather tends to increase and colder, drier air from Canada and the Pacific clashes with relatively warmer, moister Gulf airmasses. Unfortunately, overnight Saturday and early Sunday morning, severe weather spawned tornadoes in central Oklahoma that caused significant damage around Oklahoma City.

Additional severe weather is forecast today and tomorrow across parts of the Southern Plains and South, into the Midwest. A potent, slow-moving upper-level storm system is responsible for the severe weather late last week and on Saturday and is the culprit for the severe weather over the next 36 hours.

This storm system will bring adequate shear and lift, paired with enough instability-or storm energy-to increase the severe and tornado risk for these areas with a greater tornado concern for southern and eastern Oklahoma extending into northern Texas and southeastern Kansas and southwestern Missouri. There's a level 1 [green], level 2 [yellow] and level 3 [orange] severe risk for this region today and tomorrow.

The greatest severe risk this afternoon and evening lies across mainly southern and southeastern Oklahoma, extending into far northern Texas. These areas have the highest probability to see severe wind gusts up to 75 mph and tornadoes.

**Sunday's severe risk**
![Sunday's severe risk](https://firsthandweather.s3.amazonaws.com/Sunday_s_severe_risk_81b3ec5290.png)

**Sunday's tornado probability forecast**
![Sunday's tornado probability forecast](https://firsthandweather.s3.amazonaws.com/Sunday_s_tornado_probability_forecast_fe57579c00.png)

These same areas will see severe weather late Monday morning into the afternoon and evening hours, but the area of concern expands into all of eastern Oklahoma, southeastern Kansas, southwestern Missouri and western Arkansas. Numerous severe storms, including tornadoes are possible for these areas.

**Monday's severe risk**
![Monday's severe risk](https://firsthandweather.s3.amazonaws.com/Monday_s_severe_risk_45a6fb6e8f.png)

**Monday's tornado probability forecast**
![Monday's tornado probability forecast](https://firsthandweather.s3.amazonaws.com/Monday_s_tornado_probability_forecast_58f37596b2.png)

Please stay weather aware and have a way to receive weather updates and warnings. If you're in need of a reliable source to receive warning information from, Firsthand Weather has teamed up with WeatherCall to receive a phone call from us letting you know when a Watch or Warning is issued for your location based on your phones GPS [or address you enter]. This is a paid service [$15 per year] but it keeps you informed and safe and is a call from us. **[SIGN UP HERE TODAY BY CLICKING HERE!](https://www.wcapp04as.com/wc_ibw/db_app2.php?station=fhwx&fbclid=IwY2xjawGUjyxleHRuA2FlbQIxMAABHeM3fsmQ_EK40-H3Howgd8YbHOcmrwwkPe_J0T4AciLXnJIWQFpHCq5mcA_aem_ZF3tREd95VGa4bjJFfJggg)
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Severe weather

Severe storms, tornadoes likely Sunday and Monday across the Southern Plains, South and Midwest.

Severe storms, tornadoes likely Sunday and Monday

The first snow of the season and chilly temperatures are forecast tonight through Wednesday morning for the mountains of western North Carolina and eastern Tennessee.

Not all locations will see snow, but all locations will see chilly temperatures tonight and Wednesday morning. Temperatures will fall well into the 40s for nearly all of Georgia and the Carolinas with northern Georgia, upstate South Carolina and western North Carolina seeing temperatures in the 30s with some 20s in the higher terrain of western North Carolina. Because of the cold temperatures, local National Weather Service offices have issues Freeze Warnings and Frost Advisories from northeastern Georgia, upstate South Carolina into western North Carolina. Temperatures in this area will fall between 27 and 35 degrees by Wednesday morning.

**Freeze Warnings and Frost Advisories**
![Freeze Warnings and Frost Advisories](https://firsthandweather.s3.amazonaws.com/Freeze_Warnings_and_Frost_Advisories_24dda236ee.jpg)

**Low temperature forecast**
![Low temperature forecast](https://firsthandweather.s3.amazonaws.com/Low_temperature_forecast_16a58ba16e.png)

Paired with the cold temperatures, the first snow of the season is possible for the higher elevations of western North Carolina and eastern Tennessee. The heaviest accumulations are forecast above 5,000 feet where isolated 2-4 inches are possible for the highest peaks with around 1 inch from below 5,000 feet to 4,000 feet. A rain snow mixture could fall as low as 3,000 to 3,500 feet by Wednesday morning but accumulations are not expected. Major travel impacts are not forecast and no winter weather alerts are in effect.

**Snow accumulation forecast**
![ Snow accumulation forecast](https://firsthandweather.s3.amazonaws.com/Snow_accumulation_forecast_02a39617f9.jpg)

The cold and snow is concerning for some residents that are without electricity or adequate shelter after the devastating flooding from Hurricane Helene. Nearly 11,000 homes are without power in western North Carolina.

**Current power outage map**
![ Current power outage map](https://firsthandweather.s3.amazonaws.com/Current_power_outage_map_c4784bf91c.png)

Temperatures stay chilly Wednesday, Thursday and Friday morning but begin to moderate Friday afternoon into the upcoming weekend.

Freeze Warnings and Frost Advisories

The first snow of the season and chilly temperatures are forecast tonight through Wednesday morning for the mountains of western North Carolina and eastern Tennessee.

First snow of the season and chilly temperatures for the higher terrain of North Carolina and Tennessee

The first taste of winter arrives Tuesday night into early Wednesday morning with snow possible for the mountains of western North Carolina and eastern Tennessee.

It's much cooler for parts of the eastern United States this evening behind a cold front, and a second, stronger push of chilly air will move into the region—moving farther south than the initial cool push—arrives Tuesday. Associated with this second surge of cool air will be enough lift and moisture to support rain showers in eastern Tennessee and western North Carolina Tuesday evening. As cold air continues to move in and deepen, enough moisture remains in place for the rain to change to snow by nighttime on Tuesday with snow levels falling to 5,000 feet by sunset Tuesday, eventually falling as low as 3,000 feet Wednesday morning for whatever moisture remains.

Locations at 3,000 feet near the Tennessee/North Carolina state line won't see accumulations but above 4,000 feet could see 1-2 inches of snow with 5,000 feet and higher seeing 2-4 inches of snow with possibly the highest peaks seeing slightly higher amounts.

**Modeled snow accumulation forecast**
![Modeled snow accumulation forecast](https://firsthandweather.s3.amazonaws.com/Modeled_snow_accumulation_forecast_0cbb2f303e.png)

**NWS snow forecast**
![Modeled snow accumulation forecast](https://firsthandweather.s3.amazonaws.com/Modeled_snow_accumulation_forecast_8e09e2c6cd.JPG)

Travel is not expected to be impacted by the light snow.

Snowflake

The first taste of winter arrives Tuesday night into early Wednesday morning with snow possible for the mountains of western North Carolina and eastern Tennessee.

Winter whiplash: snow this week in the North Carolina, Tennessee mountains

A Severe Geomagnetic Storm [G4]-nearing G5 strength-could make the northern lights viewable for a good chunk of the U.S. tonight, even extending as northern Florida [on the northern horizon].

**Geomagnetic Storm strengths and impacts**
![Geomagnetic Storm strengths and impacts](https://firsthandweather.s3.amazonaws.com/Geomagnetic_Storm_strengths_and_impacts_6570886ecc.png)

The favored areas to view the northern lights will be for northern and central locations in the U.S. but even parts of the South have the potential to see the northern lights tonight.

**Forecast for areas that could see the northern lights**
![ Forecast for areas that could see the northern lights](https://firsthandweather.s3.amazonaws.com/Forecast_for_areas_that_could_see_the_northern_lights_92fbb0aa02.JPG)

The optimal timeframe will be late tonight and early Friday morning. To increase your chances of seeing the northern lights, get away from light pollution from cities and look toward the northern horizon. You also have a better shot of seeing the northern lights utilizing your phone-long exposure/night-mode.

There's a lack of significant storm system impacting the U.S. tonight so minimal cloud coverage will allow for good viewability for most folks. Parts of New England, the central U.S. Rockies and Northern Plains could see some clouds, but other areas will be clear.

**Cloud coverage forecast tonight [blue is clouds, white is clear skies]**
![Cloud coverage forecast tonight [blue is clouds, white is clear skies]](https://firsthandweather.s3.amazonaws.com/Cloud_coverage_forecast_tonight_blue_is_clouds_white_is_clear_skies_fd8eb5c6ef.png)

Geomagnetic Storm strengths and impacts

A Severe Geomagnetic Storm [G4] could make the northern lights viewable for a good chunk of the U.S. tonight, even extending as northern Florida.

A Severe Geomagnetic Storm could make the northern lights viewable as far south as Florida

Hurricane and Storm Surge Warnings are in effect for parts of Florida, both the west and east coasts of the state, ahead of Major Hurricane Milton that's forecast to make landfall Wednesday night.

Milton underwent super-rapid intensification Sunday night through Monday, intensifying into one of the strongest hurricanes on record with a central pressure of 897 mb and maximum sustained winds of 180 mph. Since then, Milton has undergone a weakening trend as it underwent an eye wall replacement cycle overnight Monday and early Tuesday but Milton remains a power Category 4 as of Tuesday morning. In fact, it's just a few mph shy of a Category 5 and should obtain Category 5 status again on Tuesday afternoon.

As Milton continues to move east northeastward throughout Tuesday and Wednesday, it's forecast to make landfall Wednesday night along the western Florida peninsula coast as a major Category 3 hurricane. It cannot be ruled out that the hurricane could be Category 4 at landfall. Regardless of Category 3 or 4, the impacts will be the same. The slight lessening in intensity will be caused by less favorable environmental conditions due to increased shear and dry air, but regardless, the hurricane will remain powerful. Despite the forecast landfall late Wednesday, impacts will begin being felt overnight Tuesday and early Wednesday morning as the hurricane approaches the coast of Florida and will linger through Thursday.

**Current (Tuesday morning) Milton forecast**
![Current (Tuesday morning) Milton forecast](https://firsthandweather.s3.amazonaws.com/Current_Tuesday_morning_Milton_forecast_e9729c0583.webp)

As mentioned, the Hurricane Warning has been extended from coast to coast across parts of Florida with additional parts of the state under Tropical Storm Warnings. Tropical Storm Watches extend along the coast of Georgia up along coastal South Carolina, including Charleston and Savannah.

**Current (Tuesday morning) tropical alerts**
![Current (Tuesday morning) tropical alerts](https://firsthandweather.s3.amazonaws.com/Current_Tuesday_morning_tropical_alerts_3839a9dc46.png)

Storm Surge Warnings and Watches are also in effect for nearly the entire western coast of Florida with the northeast coast of Florida now being included in the Storm Surge Warning. Parts of the Storm Surge Warning, along the western coast, could see a storm surge of 10-15 feet. Localized 20 foot amounts cannot be completely ruled out. This geometry of the trajectory of Milton and the continental shelf along and just off the western coast of Florida will allow the water and storm surge to really 'pile up' and build.The highest surge will be near the center and just south of the immediate center of Milton late Wednesday. This could include both Tampa Bay and Fort Myers. Keep in mind, slight fluctuations in track and the motion of the track could have significant impacts of the storm surge levels.

A Storm Surge Watch extends from coastal Georgia and along coastal South Carolina, including Charleston and Savannah. These areas could see a storm surge up to 5 feet.

**Current (Tuesday morning) storm surge alerts
**
![Current (Tuesday morning) storm surge alerts](https://firsthandweather.s3.amazonaws.com/Current_Tuesday_morning_storm_surge_alerts_e9842e1a23.webp)

**Current (Tuesday morning) storm surge forecast**
![Current (Tuesday morning) storm surge forecast](https://firsthandweather.s3.amazonaws.com/Current_Tuesday_morning_storm_surge_forecast_fa9d5fb32f.webp)

**Current (Tuesday morning) storm surge forecast--Tampa Bay**
![Current (Tuesday morning) storm surge forecast--Tampa Bay](https://firsthandweather.s3.amazonaws.com/Current_Tuesday_morning_storm_surge_forecast_Tampa_Bay_740d37297f.png)

Along with hurricane conditions (wind and storm surge), heavy rain is forecast with Milton that will lead to localized rainfall amounts of up to one foot in Florida, leading to a high flash flood risk. The heaviest rain, or the dirty side of the system, will be on the north side of the center of Milton. From the center north, potentially along a line from Tampa Bay to Orlando, northward toward Jacksonville, is forecast to see the heaviest rain. While the heaviest rain is forecast in Florida, it should be noted that coastal and far southeastern Georgia will see up to a few inches of rain too. The squalls that produce the heavy rain could spin up tornadoes over the next couple of days across Florida.

**Milton rainfall forecast**
![Milton rainfall forecast](https://firsthandweather.s3.amazonaws.com/Milton_rainfall_forecast_f431f38571.png)

Please keep a close eye on the forecast, have multiple reliable sources of information and listen to all local officials. If you're told to evacuate, evacuate. Never cross roadways covered by water.

Current (Tuesday morning) Milton forecast

Hurricane and Storm Surge Warnings are in effect for parts of Florida with alerts extending into Georgia and South Carolina ahead of Major Hurricane Milton.

All blogs

Developing hurricane could impact Florida next week

Severe storms, tornadoes likely Sunday and Monday

First snow of the season and chilly temperatures for the higher terrain of North Carolina and Tennessee

Winter whiplash: snow this week in the North Carolina, Tennessee mountains

A Severe Geomagnetic Storm could make the northern lights viewable as far south as Florida

Hurricane Milton impacts, forecast from Florida to Georgia and South Carolina