Severe storms are expected this afternoon and evening from the Great Lake to the Gulf Coast as a cold front sweeps into a warm, moist, unstable airmass. All the ingredients are in place for strong storms to become severe later today producing all modes of severe weather, including tornadoes, large hail, and damaging winds. While all the ingredients are in place for all modes of severe weather, the tornado risk is not as high as it was earlier this month of these areas. There's a greater concern for damaging winds and large hail.

**Saturday's severe risk**

![Saturday's severe risk](https://firsthandweather.s3.amazonaws.com/Saturday_s_severe_risk_df25fb1700.jpeg)

![Saturday's severe risk](https://firsthandweather.s3.amazonaws.com/Saturday_s_severe_risk_e041673e4b.jpeg)

Because of the severe threat this afternoon and evening, there's a severe risk from Wisconsin to Texas. The highest sever risk extends from the mid-Mississippi Valley into the Deep South where there's a level 3 (enhanced - level 3/5) severe risk [orange shaded area] and a level 2 (slight - level 2/5) severe risk [yellow shaded area].

**Sunday's severe risk**

![Sunday's severe risk](https://firsthandweather.s3.amazonaws.com/Sunday_s_severe_risk_101f810c9e.jpeg)

The severe threat shifts east tomorrow but begins to slowly diminish. The main concern is gusty winds from thunderstorms that could cause isolated areas of damage. There's a level 1 (marginal - level 1/5) severe risk [dark green shaded area] from the Great Lakes into the Mid-Atlantic, Carolinas, and Florida.

Saturday's severe risk

Severe storms are expected from the Great Lake to the Gulf Coast. The ingredients are in place for tornadoes, large hail, damaging winds. 

Another round of severe storms and tornadoes Saturday

Experts at Colorado State University are predicting a slightly below average 2023 Atlantic hurricane season. The tropical weather outlook calls for six hurricanes, two of which could become major (category 3 or stronger), and 13 named storms.

**Colorado State University 2023 Forecast**

![Colorado State University 2023 Forecast](https://firsthandweather.s3.amazonaws.com/Colorado_State_University_2023_Forecast_1daf15afce.jpeg)

Typically, an average season (1991-2000 average) has seven hurricanes, three major hurricanes, and 14 named storms, so this season is expected to have around 80% of tropical activity compared to normal.

A big reason for the slightly below average forecast is because of the expected El Nino conditions that are forecast to develop later this summer and fall, and those influences on the tropical Atlantic basin with increase wind shear helping to mitigate tropical development. Despite the unfavorable development conditions over the tropical Atlantic due to the development of El Nino, the sea-surface temperatures are unusually warm. This to an extent can help counter the expected higher levels of wind shear that's not favorable for the development and sustainability of tropical cyclones.

**Current Atlantic SST departures from average**

![Current Atlantic SST departures from average](https://firsthandweather.s3.amazonaws.com/Current_Atlantic_SST_departures_from_average_f12c1adc2c.png)

Colorado State University says this hurricane season could feature some similarities to 2015, 2014, 2012, 2009, 2004 and 2002.

The 2023 Atlantic hurricane season begins in just over a month on June 1.

Colorado State University 2023 Forecast

Experts at Colorado State University are predicting a slightly below average 2023 Atlantic hurricane season. The tropical weather outlook calls for six hurricanes, two of which could become major (category 3 or stronger), and 13 named storms.

Here's what to expect this hurricane season

A developing area of low pressure over the northern Gulf of Mexico will bring heavy rain to parts of the Gulf Coast this week with the potential of some flooding from Louisiana to Florida.

A broad area of lower atmospheric pressure over the northern Gulf of Mexico will slowly begin to develop into a better organized area of low pressure today into Wednesday. This low-pressure system will bring areas of heavy rain to parts of the north-central Gulf Coast later today through Wednesday. The system will stay over the north-central Gulf of Mexico or hug the coast before making landfall later this week around Thursday or early Friday. Once the system moves onshore, it'll move east-northeast, spreading rain farther north and east into parts of the Southeast to end the week.

The low pressure is not expected to develop into a tropical system but will still cause heavy rain leading to some flooding and it'll also create rough seas that could cause coastal erosion and also contribute to coastal flooding. The greatest risk for flooding from falling rain will exist for areas near and south of I-10 from eastern Louisiana to the Florida Panhandle late today through Wednesday. As the system moves inland later this week, the flood risk increases for parts of Alabama, Georgia, and South Carolina. Along the immediate Gulf Coast, 2-6 inches of rain is expected with isolated higher amounts. Farther north and east, 0.50-1.75 inches can be expected.

**Rainfall forecast**

![Rainfall forecast](https://firsthandweather.s3.amazonaws.com/Rainfall_forecast_119a0461a2.png)

Along the Gulf Coast, Coastal Flood Advisories and Warnings continue through Thursday morning where 1-3 feet of saltwater inundation above normal high tide is possible that could lead to flooding from coastal east Louisiana to coastal Alabama.

**Coastal Flood Advisories & Warnings**

![Coastal Flood Advisories & Warnings](https://firsthandweather.s3.amazonaws.com/Coastal_Flood_Advisories_and_Warnings_08c6bde0da.png)



Rainfall forecast

A developing area of low pressure over the northern Gulf of Mexico will bring heavy rain to parts of the Gulf Coast this week with the potential of some flooding from Louisiana to Florida.

Developing Gulf Low to bring heavy rain, flooding to Gulf Coast

All eyes are on the Gulf of Mexico this upcoming week as a system could develop bringing heavy rainfall to parts of the Gulf Coast states.

An area of low pressure is expected to develop over the northwestern or northern Gulf of Mexico early to mid week, remaining over the northern Gulf of Mexico or hugging the Gulf Coast states from mid week toward the end of the week.

_The official start of the hurricane season isn't until June 1_, but tropical development can and has occurred before June. While Firsthand Weather isn't currently expected a tropical cyclone to develop, meteorologists at Firsthand Weather will keep a close eye on the system to see if it acquires tropical or subtropical characteristics.

The waters in the Gulf are unusually warm, so while odds are low of tropical development at this time, tropical development cannot be completely ruled out if this system stays over the water and shear decreases enough. At that point, it could attempt to organize and strengthen acquiring tropical or subtropical characteristics. Some guidance does hint at this potential.

**Current SST anomalies in the Gulf of Mexico**

![Current SST anomalies in the Gulf of Mexico](https://firsthandweather.s3.amazonaws.com/Current_SST_anomalies_in_the_Gulf_of_Mexico_e62f9c21ab.png)

Despite the current low odds of development into a tropical or subtropical cyclone, the system will bring heavy rain to the Gulf states that will increase the flood risk for areas that are seeing heavy rain this weekend. Rain initially falls for areas near I-10 from the upper-Texas coast to the Florida Panhandle through midweek. The heaviest rain will be for coastal Louisiana and coastal Mississippi. Rain moves farther inland into parts of the South and Southeast toward the end of the week. The exact placement of the heaviest rain and amounts are uncertain at this time due to questions around the intensity and track of the low pressure system.

![12Z European Total Precipitation forecast through Friday night](https://firsthandweather.s3.amazonaws.com/12_Z_European_Total_Precipitation_forecast_through_Friday_night_83ea70446d.png)

This system could also bring rough seas and gusty winds to the north-central Gulf Coast leading to minor coastal erosion. Some of the stronger wind gusts could spread inland late week depending on the track of the low.

The first name on the 2023 Tropical Cyclone Names List is Arlene.

12Z GFS Vorticity 700 mb

All eyes are on the Gulf of Mexico this upcoming week as a system could develop bringing heavy rainfall to parts of the Gulf Coast states.

Could the Gulf see tropical development this upcoming week?

It's been quite toasty so far this spring across the Southeast but cooler weather arrives this weekend.

A big area of high pressure has been centered over the Southeast bringing above average temperatures. Most of the region has experienced several days of high temperatures in the 80s and even 90s.

This area of high pressure that has been vacationing over the region is breaking down and shifting out of the region and a big dip in the jet stream stream is sneaking in. This is pushing a cold front in to end the week sending in a surge of colder air by the weekend.

The colder air will be well below average with high temperatures possibly staying in the 40s for some area on Saturday. This temperature swing will be 30 to 40 degrees compared to what some areas saw this week. In fact, temperatures will be so cool, that daily record low high temperatures (or the coldest high temperatures for a day) could be set on Saturday.

**Temperature departure from average Saturday afternoon**

![Temperature departure from average Saturday afternoon](https://firsthandweather.s3.amazonaws.com/Temperature_departure_from_average_Saturday_afternoon_a21c98ca41.png)

**High temperature forecast Saturday**

![ High temperature forecast Saturday](https://firsthandweather.s3.amazonaws.com/High_temperature_forecast_Saturday_aa00b9e70e.png)

Sunday stays cooler as well but temperatures do "warm" a few degrees over Saturday but still stay below the seasonal average. Highs look to stay below average into mid next week as cold air damming stays in place.

**Temperature departure from average Sunday afternoon**

![ Temperature departure from average Sunday afternoon](https://firsthandweather.s3.amazonaws.com/Temperature_departure_from_average_Sunday_afternoon_145fc40925.png)

**High temperature forecast Sunday**

![High temperature forecast Sunday](https://firsthandweather.s3.amazonaws.com/High_temperature_forecast_Sunday_998ec309a0.png)

The cold front will stall near the north Gulf Coast with pieces of energy riding along the stalled front, which should allow for good rain chances across the Southeast over the weekend. A widespread inch or two of rain can be expected with isolated higher amounts approaching a few inches is possible. A minor flood risk will develop but should remain isolated in nature.

**Precipitation forecast**
![Precipitation forecast](https://firsthandweather.s3.amazonaws.com/Precipitation_forecast_91e564720f.png)

Temperature departure from average Saturday afternoon

The colder air will be well below average with high temperatures possibly staying in the 40s for some area on Saturday. 

Colder temperatures surge into Southeast Easter Weekend

Another severe outbreak is expected today continuing into the nighttime hours tonight from the Great Lakes south toward the Gulf.

This severe weather will impact many of the same locations that saw severe weather just last Friday, March 31, where there is now a moderate (level 4 of 5) severe risk [red area] for the ArkLaTex region extending north into southern Missouri and across eastern Iowa into western Illinois and northeastern Missouri.

Surrounding the moderate severe risk is a large enhanced (level 3 of 5) severe risk [orange area], slight (level 2 of 5) severe risk [yellow area] and marginal (level 1 of 5) severe risk [dark green area] from eastern Texas to southern Wisconsin and into parts of Mississippi and Tennessee. This includes many major metro areas including Dallas, Little Rock, Tulsa, Memphis, Kansas City, St. Louis, Des Moines, and Chicago.

**Today's (Tuesday) severe risk area**

![Today's (Tuesday) severe risk area](https://firsthandweather.s3.amazonaws.com/Today_s_Tuesday_severe_risk_area_1305ee1969.jpeg)

![Today's (Tuesday) severe risk area](https://firsthandweather.s3.amazonaws.com/Today_s_Tuesday_severe_risk_area_d4e7066eaa.jpeg)

The severe weather setup on Tuesday is eerily similar to what the region saw last Friday, which means very similar hazards exist, including tornadoes, damaging winds, and large hail. A few to several strong, long-track tornadoes are possible within the risk area, especially in the moderate and enhanced severe risk areas. These tornadoes could be EF2 or stronger. In these same areas, very large hail, larger than golf ball size, and wind gusts of hurricane force are possible.

Severe storms are already ongoing early this Tuesday and will continue this afternoon and evening with a gradual increase in intensity and coverage in storms. The severe threat will continue tonight and overnight, gradually shifting from west to east across the severe risk area. 

**Have a plan in place and reliable sources to receive warnings from**

If you live in any of the risk areas, level 1-4, please make sure you keep up to date with the latest forecast. Have a plan in place in case a warning is issued. And have a couple of reliable, timely sources to receive weather warnings from.

Today's (Tuesday) severe risk area

Severe storms could produce strong tornadoes, very large hail, and damaging winds Tuesday from the Great Lakes to the Gulf Coast.

All blogs

Another round of severe storms and tornadoes Saturday

Here's what to expect this hurricane season

Developing Gulf Low to bring heavy rain, flooding to Gulf Coast

Could the Gulf see tropical development this upcoming week?

Colder temperatures surge into Southeast Easter Weekend

Severe outbreak today with strong tornadoes possible