Is it winter or early summer? While much of the county is dealing with frigid temperatures and snow, southern parts of the county will bask in record-warm temperatures for this time of the year. This includes the Southeast, South, parts of Texas and parts of the Mid-Atlantic.

A strong summer-like area of high pressure has set up and will strengthen its grip, placing the region in a favorable pattern for warm temperatures. In fact, many areas across the Southeast, South, parts of Texas, and parts of the Mid-Atlantic will see high temperatures climb into the 70s and 80s from Tuesday through Friday. Even warmer temperatures are expected for inland areas of the Florida Peninsula and south Texas where lower to even mid-90s are expected.

High temperatures this warm are a good 10 to 30 degrees above average depending on the location, which will set some new daily high-temperature records over the coming days. The warmest temperatures are expected Wednesday and Thursday for most of the region.

**Tuesday high temperature forecast**

![Tuesday high temperature forecast](https://firsthandweather.s3.amazonaws.com/Tuesday_high_temperature_forecast_8007c61241.png)

**Wednesday high temperature forecast**

![Wednesday high temperature forecast](https://firsthandweather.s3.amazonaws.com/Wednesday_high_temperature_forecast_49b587a3f1.png)

**Thursday high temperature forecast**

![Thursday high temperature forecast](https://firsthandweather.s3.amazonaws.com/Thursday_high_temperature_forecast_590a79283b.png)

**Friday high temperature forecast**

![Friday high temperature forecast](https://firsthandweather.s3.amazonaws.com/Friday_high_temperature_forecast_9de3d34145.png)

Temperatures begin to cool across Texas and the South on Friday as a cold front moves into the region. This cold front will sweep into the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic by the weekend bringing temperatures back down to where they should be for February.

Thursday high temperature forecast

Record heat is expected for the Southeast with temperatures approaching 30 degrees warmer than average from Texas to the Carolinas. Highs in the 90s are possible for some areas.

Record heat is expected for the Southeast with temperatures approaching 30 degrees warmer than average

Northern Georgia, including the Atlanta area, can expect warm and partly cloudy weather through the upcoming week. Highs in the 60s to low 70s are expected today, with temperatures increasing through the day due to warm, moist air coming from the Gulf of Mexico. 

We expect a warming trend to persist throughout the week as a strengthening ridge builds into the forecast area. Expect highs in the mid to upper 60s on Monday and in the 70s for the rest of the area. Temperatures will remain well-above average into Wednesday and Thursday, likely exceeding 80 across a swath of the forecast area outside of the mountains. Lows will only dip into the 60s across much of the area by mid-week, making this “heat wave” even more impressive.

Temperatures so warm this early in the year could break records. The forecast area typically doesn’t experience nighttime temperatures in the 60s until late spring and early summer. 

Scattered rain chances will increase on Monday night into Tuesday, mainly across the Tennessee River Valley and far northern Georgia. There may again be some rain chances early Thursday closer to the mountains, but nothing that should produce widespread accumulations in the region, unless the ridge trends weaker than currently forecast. 

![Expected high temperatures on Thursday, Feb. 23, 2023](https://firsthandweather.s3.amazonaws.com/thursday_highs_01eee2db27.png)

Expected high temperatures on Thursday, Feb. 23, 2023

![Expected low temperatures on Thursday Night, Feb. 23, 2023](https://firsthandweather.s3.amazonaws.com/thursday_night_lows_49e8f6c21d.png)

Expected low temperatures on Thursday Night, Feb. 23, 2023

![5-Day Rainfall Forecast](https://firsthandweather.s3.amazonaws.com/5_day_rainfall_ab250c0415.png)

5-Day Rainfall Forecast

Timeline:

Today: Partly cloudy skies, highs in the 60s to low 70s, and surface winds will change from southerly to southwesterly.

Monday: Continued warm advection into the forecast area, with low temperatures in the mid-40s across the area and highs in the mid to upper 60s in the far northern tier and in the 70s for the rest of the area. 

Through the week: Warm temperatures with highs reaching the 70s and 80s. Low-end precipitation chances mainly across the Tennessee River Valley and northern Georgia. Some rain chances early Thursday, but nothing resembling the wetter pattern from earlier this winter. 

Expected high temperatures on Thursday, Feb. 23, 2023

thursday_highs.png

A Taste of Summer: North Georgia’s Toasty Weather Forecast

Ongoing storms early Thursday are expected to continue throughout the day, becoming severe, producing damaging winds, large hail, and creating the potential for strong tornadoes.

The ongoing storms are producing gusty winds and heavy rain from the Ohio Valley to the lower Mississippi River. Most of the storms are currently below severe levels but that will change later Thursday as the atmosphere become more unstable. Gulf moisture continues to feed in ahead of this storm system, paired with favorable jet stream winds and position, which will set the stage for severe storms and tornadoes, especially Thursday afternoon and evening.

The areas of concern extend from the South to the Ohio Valley, including parts of Louisiana, Arkansas, Mississippi, Alabama, Georgia, Florida, Tennessee, Kentucky, Indiana, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and New York. The greatest threat for severe weather, including the potential for strong tornadoes, exists in central Tennessee, central and eastern Mississippi, and western Alabama Thursday afternoon and evening. This is where there's a Level 3/5 severe risk or an enhanced severe risk from the Storm Prediction Center.

![Thunderstorm outlook map](https://firsthandweather.s3.amazonaws.com/Thunderstorm_outlook_map_e13c803501.jpeg)

If you live within the severe risk area, have a couple of reliable sources to receive weather warnings from and have a plan in place in case a warning is issued for your area.

Thunderstorm outlook map

Severe storms and strong tornadoes are possible for parts of the South Thursday afternoon and evening.

Severe storms and strong tornadoes possible for parts of the South

A strong Arctic cold front will continue pushing southeastward into the Southern Plains and Mid-South on Sunday and through early next week. Strong, high pressure will build behind the front, undercutting warmer air above the surface. Westerly to southwesterly flow aloft will keep an elevated warm nose established, while surface temperatures drop to or below freezing across parts of the Southern Plains, Mid-South and Tennessee/Kentucky. 

Such a setup in the middle of winter often characterizes a long-duration period of freezing rain and/or sleet, usually orientened in a southwest-to-northeast direction. Furthermore, model guidance often underestimates the strength of the surface cold, usually resulting in icing occurring farther south and southeast. We can already see this when comparing short and medium-range models. Short-range guidance continues to trend farther southeastward with the freezing line across the Southern Plains and Mid-South. 

![Projected temperatures around sunrise Monday morning, Jan. 30, 2023](https://firsthandweather.s3.amazonaws.com/hrrr_T2m_scus_17_4caf426675.png)

Timing, Duration, and Ice Accumlations

A potent shortwave currently digging into southern California and Baja California will slowly move eastward this week. The slow movement of this feature will ensure several rounds of moderate to heavy precipitation move through the areas of interest between now and mid-to-late week.  

Though icing will start Monday for quite a few, the more widespread precipiation will move through in the Tuesday-Thursday timeframe. The most significant icing risk will occur in the Tuesday to Wednesday timeframe. The freezing line will start pushing back northward on Thursday. So, some southern areas will likely transition back to rain on Thursday.

![Freezing rain forecast Tuesday-Wednesday mornings, Jan 31-Feb 1, 2023](https://firsthandweather.s3.amazonaws.com/Screenshot_2023_01_29_at_1_23_03_PM_eff73f9856.png)

Honing in on the Tuesday morning to Wednesday morning timeframe specifically, a large swath of Texas, southern Oklahoma, Arkansas, and western Tennessee have decent probabilities of exceeding freezing rain accumulations of 0.10 inches. Those probabilities may need adjusting upward across western Tennessee, northern Mississippi, and southern  parts of Kentucky. Glacing could occur as far south as northern Louisiana and north-central Mississippi.

![24-h ice accumulations greater than 0.1 inches Tuesday-Wednesday mornings (Jan. 31-Feb.1, 2023)](https://firsthandweather.s3.amazonaws.com/Screenshot_2023_01_29_at_12_39_38_PM_4c95ea59c9.png)

The 12z HRRR projects decent icing accumulations even by early Tuesday morning, before the main event. 

![Projected freezing rain accumulations through Tuesday morning, Jan. 31, 2023](https://firsthandweather.s3.amazonaws.com/hrrr_icing_767862ca5c.png)

Winter storm watches will probably start going out soon, before being updated to an advisory or warning. Winter weather advisories could also go out for areas surrounding the primary risk zone for ice glazing. 

Please continue to monitor this icing event throughout the week. Uncertainies on the placement of the freezing line make this a challenging forecast.

Freezing rain forecast Tuesday-Wednesday mornings, Jan 31-Feb 1, 2023

Screenshot 2023-01-29 at 1.23.03 PM.png

Long-Duration Ice Storm Expected from Southern Plains (Dallas) to Mid-South (Little Rock) and Tennessee/Kentucky (Memphis)

A developing storm system will bring wintry precipitation and spring-like thunderstorms to southern parts of the country early this week. This storm system is evolving near the Four Corners region this evening and will continue to strengthen on Monday before moving into the Southern Plains on Tuesday.

Under this storm system and on the backside, it'll have enough dynamics and cold air to produce wet snow on Tuesday from the Texas Panhandle, parts of west Texas, north Texas, and Oklahoma, and eventually spreading into southern Kansas, northwestern Arkansas, and Missouri late Tuesday into Wednesday.

This is where a few to several inches of snow could fall. Ahead of the winter storm, Winter Storm Watches and Winter Weather Advisories have already been issued for parts of Texas, Arkansas, and Missouri. Additional winter weather alerts are expected to be issued Monday. Travel will likely be impacted, including parts of I-40, I-35, I-20, I-44, and I-49.

![Winter Weather Alerts for Tuesday](https://firsthandweather.s3.amazonaws.com/Winter_Weather_Alerts_for_Tuesday_46faae40e9.png)

This system will also have a warm, spring-like side. On the warmer side of the storm, severe weather is possible on Tuesday from coastal and southeast Texas, central and southern Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, and the Florida Panhandle. Damaging winds and isolated tornadoes are possible in these areas.

A limiting factor is a relatively stable air mass over this region currently, but it will destabilize quickly throughout the day Tuesday into Tuesday night supporting the severe weather, including tornadoes. The directional and speed wind shear appears to support an enhanced tornado risk Tuesday evening and night across the northcentral Gulf States.

![Tuesday severe weather risk](https://firsthandweather.s3.amazonaws.com/Tuesday_severe_weather_risk_5f38571f53.png)

There's a Level 1/5 and Level 2/5 severe risk Tuesday for these areas. It's possible this gets upgraded to Level 3 on Monday or Tuesday.

The storm will weaken and move toward the Ohio Valley on Wednesday. This will lessen the severe risk on Wednesday but there's still a low-end severe risk for parts of Alabama and Georgia Wednesday. 

Keep checking back for updates!

Future radar late Tuesday

A developing storm system will bring wintry precipitation and spring-like thunderstorms to southern parts of the country early this week. 

A potent winter storm will deliver snow and severe weather to southern parts of the country this week

From severe weather and Tornado Warnings yesterday to accumulating snow and ice today. The weather has quickly changed from spring-like back to winter.

The big upper-level trough that helped trigger yesterday's severe weather continues to move off to the east. This trough now has brought a northwesterly flow to the area providing colder temperatures to North Georgia. Within this northwesterly flow, a small, fast-moving shortwave will swing into the region. While small, pretty strong lift is associated with this shortwave, which will allow for periodic bands of snow to move into North Georgia today into early Saturday morning.

![Today's snowmaker](https://firsthandweather.s3.amazonaws.com/Today_s_snowmaker_9b74df03d3.png)

Because of the cold temperatures and snow, some accumulations are possible in North Georgia. ½ inch to 1 inch of snow can be expected for parts of North Georgia below 1,000 feet with 1 to 2 inches above 1,000 feet. Some of the higher peaks near the Tennesee border could approach 3 inches. Paired with the snow, rain from overnight into the morning has left roadways wet. The wet roadways will turn to ice as temperatures fall well below freezing tonight, making for tricky travel.

![Snow accumulation forecast](https://firsthandweather.s3.amazonaws.com/Snow_accumulation_forecast_5806274ba6.png)

Because of the snow and icy roads expected, a Winter Weather Advisory is in effect for parts of North Georgia today until 3 a.m. Saturday morning.

![Winter Weather Alerts](https://firsthandweather.s3.amazonaws.com/Winter_Weather_Alerts_516994a6aa.png)

Light snow is also expected for North Alabama, Central and East Tennessee, and the mountains of West North Carolina. While mainly light snow is expected, the mountains near the Tennessee-North Carolina border could see over a foot of snow with reduced visibility due to wind and snow. A Winter Storm Warning is in effect for these mountains. 

Winter Weather Alerts

Snow is expected for parts of Tennessee, Alabama, Georgia, and North Carolina today. Accumulations are expected.

All blogs

Record heat is expected for the Southeast with temperatures approaching 30 degrees warmer than average

A Taste of Summer: North Georgia’s Toasty Weather Forecast

Severe storms and strong tornadoes possible for parts of the South

Long-Duration Ice Storm Expected from Southern Plains (Dallas) to Mid-South (Little Rock) and Tennessee/Kentucky (Memphis)

A potent winter storm will deliver snow and severe weather to southern parts of the country this week

Winter Weather Advisory in effect for North Georgia, dangerous travel expected