Increasing confidence in snow for the Southeast late Monday, early Tuesday

There is increasing confidence in the potential for snow flurries and light snow Monday evening into early Tuesday morning for parts of the Southeast. The system responsible for the snow chances is currently over southern Manitoba. This robust clipper-like system [or a strong are of upper-level lift] will rapidly drop southward toward the Midwest on Southeast late Monday. This system is rounding the outer periphery of the strong upper trough that is responsible for the chilly, Arctic airmass that is in place.

This chilly airmass will set the stage for a temperature profile conducive to support snow; however, with this cold air, there is a lot of dry air associated with the Arctic high-pressure system controlling the weather across the Southeast. This dry air will limit snow totals but enough lift with the upper-level clipper system, along with mid-level atmospheric moisture, should lead to an extensive area of snow developing across Kentucky, Tennessee, northeastern Mississippi, northern Alabama, northern Georgia and the Carolinas [shifting from northwest to southeast Monday evening into early Tuesday morning]. While this snow will be extensive on radar [not all reaching the ground], a lot of it will be 'eaten' away by the dry air in the lower levels of the atmosphere. Despite the concerns over this dry air, the heaviest returns that develop will translate to snow reaching the ground, and when paired with orographic enhancements across Tennessee, northern Alabama, northern Georgia, western North Carolina and Upstate South Carolina, this increases the odds of light snow reaching the surface [a more favorable placement of the clipper system and a touch more moisture will also lead to more favorable chances for snow to reach the ground in central and eastern North Carolina, extending into north-central South Carolina early Tuesday morning]. It is even possible the far northern Atlanta suburbs could see light flurriest Monday night.

Radar Monday 6pm

Radar Monday 8pm

Radar Monday 10pm

Radar Tuesday 2am

While the radar may look quite impressive at times late Monday, the dry air will certainly limit what reaches the ground, and hence, limit snow accumulations. Despite this, light snow accumulations are forecast. A dusting is possible around central Tennessee, parts of northern Alabama, northern Georgia, and for central parts North Carolina and possibly central South Carolina. The higher terrain along the Tennessee-North Carolina state will could see 2-4 inches by Tuesday morning.

Snow accumulation forecast