Arctic blast to send temperatures plummeting, heavy snow likely

Several blasts of Arctic air will send temperatures plummeting for the eastern half of the lower-48 from late this week into the upcoming weekend, continuing through the first week of December.

This evolving weather pattern will favor intrusions of Arctic air moving moving into eastern parts of the United States, sending temperatures well below normal [and by far, the coldest air of the season thus far]. The 6–10-day temperature outlook [the first week of December] concurs, showing this pattern change, and strongly favors below normal temperatures for areas along and east of the Mississippi. The strongest likelihood of below normal temperatures extends from the Ohio Valley and Great Lakes into the Mid-Atlantic and Southeast.

6-10-day temperature outlook

6-10-day temperature outlook Southeast

The first push of truly cold air arrives in the Southeast just after Thanksgiving, on Friday. This strong cold front will deliver a widespread, hard freeze to the region with low temperatures from Saturday through Monday well below freezing. By Monday morning, teens are possible across Tennessee, northern Mississippi, northern Alabama, northern Georgia, western North Carolina and Upstate South Carolina. [Note: morning lows below freezing will continue beyond Monday morning.]

Saturday morning low temperatures

Sunday morning low temperatures

Monday morning low temperatures

Through the upcoming weekend and early next week, wintry precipitation for the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic isn't too big of a concern with quite a bit of dry air in place with this strong Arctic high pressure building in. The one exception is across the southern Appalachians where light snow is possible Saturday night and Sunday morning along the North Carolina-Tennessee state line. Only minimal accumulations are forecast for the highest elevations.

Heavier snow is forecast farther north across parts of the Great Lakes. This is where the typical snowbelt zones [on the eastern side of Lake Erie and Lake Ontario] will see significant lake effect snow over the weekend into early next week as very cold, Arctic air [at the surface and aloft] moves over the relatively warm, ice-free Great Lakes.

Great Lakes water temperatures

The continuous westerly flow of Arctic across these warm waters will dump snow in the feet range in localized areas. A Winter Storm Watch is in effect over the weekend into Monday for these areas.

Winter Weather Watch

Travel will likely be significantly impacted in and around the watch area.