The odds continue to increase for tropical development in the Gulf of Mexico or Caribbean next week and there's now a 60% chance for a tropical system according to the latest update from the National Hurricane Center over the next 7 days. 

**National Hurricane Center forecast**

![NHC forecast over the next 7 days](https://firsthandweather.s3.amazonaws.com/NHC_forecast_over_the_next_7_days_0e6f42ccf8.JPG)

These odds will likely increase over the weekend as all indicators suggest this development as atmospheric conditions become favorable for tropical development.

While confidence is increasing in the chance for development, there are still questions about exactly where development occurs, the eventual track and strength. This isn't uncommon as this system has yet to develop and is still a few to several days out from development.

While those specifics are murky, guidance suggests the steering pattern next week could favor a northward path into the central Gulf of Mexico if a system does develop. Beyond that timeframe, anything is possible, from a continued northward trajectory or even a northeast or northwest movement. All residents along the Gulf Coast from Florida to Texas should keep a close eye on the forecast over the weekend and next week.

Any direct impacts to the United States wouldn't occur until the end of next week or that following weekend.

NHC forecast over the next 7 days

Increasing odds for a tropical system in the Gulf of Mexico next week. Gulf residents need to keep a close eye on the forecast.

Tropical system likely in the Gulf next week

A big change in the weather pattern will bring significant amounts of precipitation to parts of Colorado over the weekend, including snow for the mountains.

The warm, dry, breezy weather Colorado is experiencing will drastically change over the weekend. A storm system over California as of Friday morning will move northeastward toward the Four Corners throughout the day, crossing over Colorado late Saturday and Sunday.

**Upper-level storm system as of Friday morning**
![Upper-level storm system as of Friday morning](https://firsthandweather.s3.amazonaws.com/Upper_level_storm_system_as_of_Friday_morning_44fb939c12.png)

**Upper-level storm system early Sunday morning**
![Upper-level storm system early Sunday morning](https://firsthandweather.s3.amazonaws.com/Upper_level_storm_system_early_Sunday_morning_518270e220.png)

This storm system will send a strong cold front into Colorado, dropping temperatures and dropping snow levels. It'll also be responsible for an enhanced upslope pattern beginning late Saturday afternoon, continuing through around midday Sunday. This upslope flow will bring substantial rain amounts to the west-facing foothills and all of eastern Colorado, including Denver where 0.50-1.25 inches of rain will fall. Heavier amounts of 1.50-2.00 inches are possible for the foothill communities. The flood risk is low but is non-zero and will be locally higher near recent burn scars. As always, never cross a roadway covered by water.

**Rain accumulation forecast**
![Rain accumulation forecast](https://firsthandweather.s3.amazonaws.com/Rain_accumulation_forecast_4f95546db6.png)

With the colder air associated with this system, the first appreciable snow event is forecast for the mountains. A rain/snow mixture cannot be ruled out as low as 7,000-7,500 feet with light accumulations above 8,000 feet. Several inches, approaching a foot in some cases, is possible above 10,000 feet, including Pikes Peak.

**Snow accumulation forecast**
![Snow accumulation forecast](https://firsthandweather.s3.amazonaws.com/Snow_accumulation_forecast_b0c87f3e63.png)

Because of the snow forecast along with the gusty winds of 30-45 mph in the mountains, a Winter Weather Advisory has been issued for the weekend for the highest peaks.

**Winter Weather Advisories**
![Winter Weather Advisories](https://firsthandweather.s3.amazonaws.com/Winter_Weather_Advisories_47ade3003f.png)

The weather conditions will begin to improve late Sunday as the storm weakens and moves east.

Previous Pike's Peak snow event

A strong storm system will bring heavy rain and snow to Colorado this weekend.

Strong storm to bring heavy rain and snow to Colorado

The odds are increasing for tropical development over the Caribbean or southern Gulf of Mexico next week. A large gyre, also known as a large swirling area of lower pressure associated with unsettled weather, could aid in the development of a tropical system next week.

The odds for development have been bumped up to 40% by the National Hurricane Center over the next 7 days. These odds will likely increase by the end of the week and upcoming weekend as all indicators suggest development. Guidance suggests the atmospheric conditions will become more favorable for tropical development. This gyre will be located over an area with abnormally warm water temperatures, wind shear is expected to be low enough to support development along with an injection of eastern Pacific moisture all tend to lead to increasing concerns for development.

**National Hurricane Center forecast**

![NHC forecast over the next 7 days](https://firsthandweather.s3.amazonaws.com/NHC_forecast_over_the_next_7_days_8a5dd1e99b.JPG)

It's too early to forecast strength or specifics with this potentially developing system but early guidance suggests the steering pattern next week could favor a northward path into the central Gulf of Mexico, at least initially, and then at that point, there's quite a bit of uncertainty and vairance amongst guidance. Anything is possible at that point, from a continued northward trajectory or even a northeast or northwest movement. All residents along the Gulf Coast from Florida to Texas should keep a close eye on the forecast over the weekend and next week.

Increasing odds for tropical development in the Gulf of Mexico next week. Gulf residents need to keep an eye on the forecast.

Tropical troubles possible in Gulf next week

There's growing concern for tropical development over the Caribbean or southern Gulf of Mexico in about a week's time. A large gyre, or a large swirling area of lower pressure associated with unsettled weather, could spawn a tropical system sometime next week.

The current odds are low, at 20% over the next 7-days, according to the National Hurricane Center but those odds will likely increase by the end of the week and upcoming weekend as guidance suggest atmospheric conditions will become more favorable for tropical development. This gyre will be located over an area with abnormally warm water temperatures, wind shear is expected to be low enough to support development along with an injection of eastern Pacific moisture all tend to lead to increasing concerns for development.

**National Hurricane Center forecast**

![National Hurricane Center forecast](https://firsthandweather.s3.amazonaws.com/National_Hurricane_Center_forecast_76f7ec047f.png)

It's too early to forecast strength or specifics with this potentially developing system but early guidance suggests the steering pattern next week could favor a northward path into the central Gulf of Mexico, at least initially, and then at that point, there's quite a bit of uncertainty and vairance amongst guidance. Anything is possible at that point, from a continued northward trajectory or even a northeast or northwest movement. All residents along the Gulf Coast should keep a close eye on the forecast over the weekend and next week.

National Hurricane Center forecast

There's growing concern for tropical development over the Caribbean or southern Gulf of Mexico in about a week's time. 

Eyes on the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico for tropical development

The National Hurricane Center continues to monitor an area of low pressure off the coast of South Carolina. This low pressure developed along a frontal boundary this weekend and has gradually organized, and could develop into a Tropical Depression or Tropical Storm Helene this upcoming week as it feeds off the warm Gulf Stream.

This low pressure has been given a 50% chance to develop over the next 24 to 48 hours as it moves north northwestward approaching the Carolinas.

**Low pressure the NHC is monitoring**

![Low pressure the NHC is monitoring](https://firsthandweather.s3.amazonaws.com/Low_pressure_the_NHC_is_monitoring_ae9554fc8e.png)

Regardless of this system developing, whether that's tropical or subtropical, it'll bring impacts to coastal parts of the Southeast, including the Carolinas, and the Mid-Atlantic through the first half of this upcoming week. Rough seas and large waves as well as storm surge and beach erosion are possible for coastal areas, especially for the Outer Banks. And, the big concern is gusty squalls that produce heavy rain that could lead to areas of freshwater flooding. A widespread 2-4 inches of rain is expected from the Carolinas into the Mid-Atlantic with isolated amounts of 5-7 inches from Monday through Wednesday of this week along coastal North Carolina into southeastern Virginia and along the east facing slopes of the higher terrain in Virginia.

**Rain forecast this week from the WPC**

![Rain forecast this week from the WPC](https://firsthandweather.s3.amazonaws.com/Rain_forecast_this_week_from_the_WPC_0b40556473.png)

If you live in these areas, keep a close eye on the forecast and never cross a road covered by water.

Low pressure the NHC is monitoring

A tropical Storm could develop along the Carolinas Coast this week, flooding possible.

Tropical Storm could develop along the Carolinas Coast this week

Potential Tropical Cyclone 6 (PTC6) has been designated in the western Gulf of Mexico by the National Hurricane Center (NHC) on Sunday. This first advisory from the NHC shows PTC6 will strengthen into Francine, making landfall somewhere along the upper Texas coast or southwestern/southcentral Louisiana coast as a hurricane sometime on Wednesday. With this new advisory, Tropical Storm Watch has been issued along parts of the Mexico Gulf Coast to the mouth of the Rio Grande River. Additional Watches and Warnings will be issued over the 24-48 hours for parts of coastal Texas and coastal Louisiana.

**PTC6 forecast from the NHC as of Sunday evening**
![PTC6 forecast from the NHC as of Sunday evening](https://firsthandweather.s3.amazonaws.com/PTC_6_forecast_from_the_NHC_as_of_Sunday_evening_84ceef3857.png)

Once Francine makes landfall on Wednesday, the system will then move inland spreading impacts northeastward across the Deep South, including the lower and possible mid-Mississippi River Valley beyond mid-week. The main concern is heavy rain and flooding from coastal parts of Texas and Louisiana, spreading inland, along with storm surge from the coastal bend of Texas to coastal Louisiana and possibly coastal Mississippi, along with the potential of hurricane force winds and isolated tornadoes.

**Rain forecast from Francine**
![Rain forecast from Francine](https://firsthandweather.s3.amazonaws.com/Rain_forecast_from_Francine_3625aba9cb.png)

If you live along the northwestern/north-central Gulf Coast, or areas inland from these locations, please keep an eye on the forecast over the next few days and listen to all information from local officials.

PTC6 forecast from the NHC as of Sunday evening

Francine to develop this week, making landfall as hurricane along the Gulf Coast.

All blogs

Tropical system likely in the Gulf next week

Strong storm to bring heavy rain and snow to Colorado

Tropical troubles possible in Gulf next week

Eyes on the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico for tropical development

Tropical Storm could develop along the Carolinas Coast this week

Potential Tropical Cyclone 6 designated in Gulf, forecast to make landfall as hurricane this week along the Gulf Coast