Sara forms in the Caribbean

Tropical Storm Sara forms in the Caribbean Thursday afternoon. Sara has maximum sustained winds of 40 mph and is currently moving west at 12 mph. This general westward motion is expected to continue through the end of the week and over the upcoming weekend, but the system will slow to a crawl before moving more northward and picking up speed early next week.

Thursday afternoon update on Sara from the NHC

Sara's forecast cone from NHC

This westward jog over the next 72 hours is good news for interests in the Gulf of Mexico and in Florida. A westward motion will allow Sara to interact with land, including land with higher terrain, disrupting the center of circulation, leading to an overall weaker system.

Sara is forecast to move into the southwestern or south-central Gulf of Mexico early Tuesday as either a Tropical Depression or low-end Tropical Storm. This is really good news for Florida. Earlier indications were that a high-end Tropical Storm or potentially a Hurricane could impact Florida around mid-next week if the system passed between Central America/Mexico and Cuba. Now, it's probable that Sara will encounter the land of Central America and Mexico so a weaker system in the Gulf is looking more likely early to mid next week meaning a weaker system, if not just a rain maker with an associated frontal system, could be what's in the cards for Florida around next Wednesday.

This is still a ways out so subtle changes in track and intensity can lead to larger forecast changes so keep checking back for updates. Sara is the 18th named storm of the 2024 Atlantic Hurricane Season.