Developing hurricane could impact Florida next week

An organizing disturbance over the central Caribbean is forecast to intensify into tropical storm, possibly hurricane, Sara over the coming days.

The National Hurricane Center gives this system in the Caribbean a high, 90%, chance for development into a tropical cyclone this week. The environmental conditions, such as light wind shear and anomalously warm water temperatures, do favor this development and favor additional strengthening late this week into the upcoming weekend over the Caribbean. Guidance is bullish on this system becoming a hurricane.

Tropical disturbance in the Caribbean [90% chance to develop]

As the system develops this week into the upcoming weekend, it'll remain in a region with weak steering currents, so it'll likely initially remain in the western or central Caribbean or near the central American coast, possibly looping or meandering, before a more northern track ensues next week as steering currents strengthen as a trough drops into central parts of the United States. This northern track will allow the system, likely Sara at that point, into the southern Gulf of Mexico early next week.

As the aforementioned trough moves east, the system could then move more eastward-northeastward toward Florida sometime around the middle of next week.

While a Florida impact is not a certainty, because the system has yet to develop, it's still several days out, and any land/terrain encounters would impact the intensity of the system and possibly affect the overall track, guidance is suggesting this is a realistic possibility. It's also too early to identify the intensity of what will become Sara and the intensity of the system if it makes a landfall but this will become clearer over the coming days.

Keep checking back for updates if you live along the western coast of Florida from the Panhandle to the Keys.