An unusual June weather pattern will trigger a severe weather outbreak across the South tonight as a potential derecho brings widespread damaging winds and tornadoes.

Thunderstorms are already ongoing early in the day but more widespread, high-impact severe storms are expected later today and tonight from eastern Texas, southern Arkansas and northern Louisiana, east across Mississippi, Alabama, Georgia, into northern Florida and southern South Carolina. These areas have the potential to see a few rounds of severe storms, including widespread severe wind event, that could lead to substantial wind damage. There's also the possibility of large hail and even tornadoes, some of which could be strong—EF-2 or greater.

Because of the numerous coverage of storms and high intensity storms, the Storm Prediction Center has a moderate severe risk, a level 4 of 5, for parts of the South for today and tonight. This level 4 risk area extends from northeastern Louisiana into central and southern Mississippi, central and southern Alabama, and southwestern Georgia.

![Today's severe risk](https://firsthandweather.s3.amazonaws.com/Today_s_severe_risk_cbbb82a683.jpeg)

If you live in or near the severe risk, make sure you have a way to get timely, accurate warning information today and during the overnight hours.

Today's severe risk

Moderate severe risk today: strong tornadoes, destructive winds, and large hail likely.

Severe outbreak expected across the South tonight

Tropical Storm Arlene formed in the eastern Gulf of Mexico just as the 2023 Atlantic Hurricane Season kicked off, becoming the first named storm of the 2023 season—officially being classified as Tropical Depression 2 on Thursday, June 1 and being designated Arlene on Friday, June 2. 

The good news is that the lifespan of Arlene looks short-lived as the storm slowly moves south a couple hundred miles off the west coast of Florida. The storm is not expected to undergo further strengthening and is forecast to weaken Friday through the weekend as strong winds higher up in the atmosphere rip the system apart as it slowly drifts south and east toward Cuba.

**Tropical Storm Arlene Forecas**

![ Tropical Storm Arlene Forecas](https://firsthandweather.s3.amazonaws.com/Tropical_Storm_Arlene_Forecas_bb77a9b9b1.png)

Despite the hostile atmospheric conditions leading to weakening of the system, Florida will still see some rain, gusty winds, and rough seas from Arlene Friday into the weekend, but no widespread, significant impacts are currently forecast.

**Rainfall Forecast**

![Screenshot 2023-06-02 at 3.06.37 PM.png](https://firsthandweather.s3.amazonaws.com/Screenshot_2023_06_02_at_3_06_37_PM_1dc87c06c0.png)

Visible imagery of Arlene

Arlene becomes the first tropical storm of the season in the Gulf of Mexico.

Where's Tropical Storm Arlene headed?

The latest update from the National Hurricane Center has increased the chance for tropical development in the northeastern Gulf of Mexico to a high chance as early as later today.

The system of interest, Invest 91L, now has a high chance of formation. The NHC gives the low pressure in the northeastern Gulf a 70% chance for development over the next 48 hours.

**NHC Tropical Outlook**

![NHC Tropical Outlook](https://firsthandweather.s3.amazonaws.com/NHC_Tropical_Outlook_4b5453c6a6.png)

As of Thursday early afternoon, showers and thunderstorms associated with the low pressure have become increasingly organized and it appears environmental conditions will favor further organization and a tropical depression or low-end tropical storm could develop as the low pressure is over very warm surface waters that are between 80 to 85 degrees and wind shear has lessened. That development could occur as early as later this afternoon.

The satellite appearance of the system has really improved overnight and Hurricane Hunters plan on investigating the area later today and again early Friday.

Regardless of development, Florida can expect heavy rainfall of a widespread 2-3 inches that could lead to minor flooding along with strong, gusty winds late this week and weekend.

If this system develops into a tropical storm, it would be named Arlene. Today, June 1, is the start of the Atlantic Hurricane Season.

NHC Tropical Outlook

The low pressure in the Gulf of Mexico has a 70% chance for tropical development.

A tropical storm could develop in the Gulf today

The latest update from the National Hurricane Center has substantially increased the chance for tropical development in the northeastern Gulf of Mexico this week.

The system of interest, Invest 91L, now has a medium chance of formation this week. The NHC gives the low pressure in the northeastern Gulf a 50% chance for development over the next 2 days.

**NHC Tropical Outlook as of Thursday morning for next 7-days**

![NHC Tropical Outlook as of Thursday morning for next 7-days](https://firsthandweather.s3.amazonaws.com/NHC_Tropical_Outlook_as_of_Thursday_morning_for_next_7_days_99f620ffe1.png)

As of Thursday morning, showers and thunderstorms associated with the low pressure have become increasingly organized and it appears environmental conditions could favor further organization and a tropical depression or low-end tropical storm could develop as the low pressure is over very warm surface waters that are between 80 to 85 degrees and wind shear has lessened.

The satellite appearance of the system has really improved overnight and Hurricane Hunters plan on investigating the area later Thursday and again early Friday.

Regardless of development, Florida can expect heavy rainfall of a widespread 2-3 inches that could lead to minor flooding along with strong, gusty winds.

If this system develops into a tropical storm, it would be named Arlene. Today, June 1, is the start of the Atlantic Hurricane Season.

NHC Tropical Outlook as of Thursday morning for next 7-days

The tropical disturbance now has a medium chance of formation this week at 50%.

Substantial increase in chance for tropical development in the Gulf this week

A tropical disturbance in the Gulf of Mexico is being monitored for the low-end potential for development this week and weekend. This system will bring periods of heavy rainfall and gusty winds to Florida from midweek through this upcoming weekend, favoring central and southern parts of the state.

This developing low pressure over the central Gulf of Mexico has a low-end chance for development according to the National Hurricane Center. They give this system only a 20% chance of development over the next 7 days. Nonetheless, the NHC is monitoring this area of disturbed weather as conditions will be marginally conducive for development.

**National Hurricane Center 7-Day Forecast**

![ National Hurricane Center 7-Day Forecast](https://firsthandweather.s3.amazonaws.com/National_Hurricane_Center_7_Day_Forecast_08c2e53506.png)

Regardless of tropical development, impacts are expected for Florida. Heavy rain could lead to minor flooding across the Florida Peninsula where a widespread 1-3 inches of rain is forecast with isolated higher amounts farther south approaching half a foot.

**7-Day Rainfall Forecast**

![7-Day Rainfall Forecast](https://firsthandweather.s3.amazonaws.com/7_Day_Rainfall_Forecast_be4ab5be77.png)

Wind gusts will generally be in the 20 to 30 mph range this weekend as the low pressure treks across the Florida Peninsula. The strongest winds look to occur late this weekend along the East Coast of the Florida Peninsula as the low appears to organize further over the warm Gulf Stream off the Southeast Coast.

Despite the only low-end chance for development, this time of the year in such warm waters, any system needs to be closely monitored. Keep checking back for updates.

The Atlantic Hurricane Season begins on Thursday, June 1.

 National Hurricane Center 7-Day Forecast

Low pressure in the Gulf is being monitored for the low-end potential for development this week.

Gulf disturbance will bring rain & wind to Florida this week

A developing area of low pressure off the Southeast Coast later this week will bring heavy rain, gusty winds, rough seas, and waterspouts to parts of the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic over Memorial Day weekend.

The low pressure, which is expected to remain non-tropical, is forecast to develop late this week off the coast of Georgia and the Carolinas. It is currently not expected to develop into a tropical cyclone over the coming days with only a 10% chance of development over the next 7 days according to the National Hurricane Center.

**NHC 7-Day Tropical Outlook**

![NHC 7-day tropical outlook](https://firsthandweather.s3.amazonaws.com/NHC_7_day_tropical_outlook_2d9e092609.png)

While water temperatures off the coast are unusually warm, wind shear and the development of this low along a frontal system are expected to hinder any potential transformation into a tropical entity.

Regardless of this system not becoming tropical in nature, it will still bring widespread impacts to the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic during a busy weekend as the low pressure just slowly meanders off the coast of the Carolinas before moving inland over the weekend.

The heaviest rain looks to fall from northeast Georgia into the Carolinas and southern Virginia. This is where heavy downpours will impact Memorial Weekend plans, especially for coastal areas. Coastal areas will also see rough seas and rip currents and there's an increased risk for waterspouts. Gusty winds are also possible near the coast and the low pressure moves inland over the weekend.

7-Day Rainfall Forecast

![168-hour rainfall forecast](https://firsthandweather.s3.amazonaws.com/168_hour_rainfall_forecast_0bb2f694e1.png)

Firsthand Weather will continue to monitor this developing system for any changes in the current forecast.

NHC 7-day tropical outlook

A developing area of low pressure off the Southeast Coast later this week will bring heavy rain, gusty winds, rough seas, and waterspouts to parts of the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic over Memorial Day weekend.

All blogs

Severe outbreak expected across the South tonight

Where's Tropical Storm Arlene headed?

A tropical storm could develop in the Gulf today

Substantial increase in chance for tropical development in the Gulf this week

Gulf disturbance will bring rain & wind to Florida this week

Low developing off the Southeast Coast to impact Memorial Day weekend