Major Winter Storm Update

Severe watches

For this major winter storm update, All winter weather warnings have been removed from Arkansas and Missouri with only a few remaining in Mississippi as the storm begins to pull east. Additional Warnings and Advisories have been added further Northeast up into Connecticut, Rhode Island and Massachusetts.   All other Warnings and advisories remain in effect for today as the primary low begins to transition to its secondary location.  This change will bring in the snowfall to the Eastern Carolinas bringing it almost to the coast line by Saturday morning.  As a reminder for all who have so far been disappointed by the situation they find themselves in, this storm is far from over and will be impacting your regions this evening and overnight tonight.  Further north you will see snow move in even later than that as the storm pulls to the Northeast.   The Southern New England area won’t see its first flakes until mid morning on Saturday.

radar

The Blizzard Watch for Philadelphia through the NYC metro areas has been upgraded to a Blizzard Warning.  The previous forecast for these areas holds with totals now expected around the higher ends of the limits as the storm appears to be moving slightly further north than the models had yesterday, but as I had been concerned about all along.   This is why I did not put out totals for Southern New England last night.  I was not confident that the models had the situation correctly profiled and by this morning my concern was completely proven correct.

rain and snow

To reiterate the Southern New England update I gave on Facebook,

BLIZZARD WARNING: for the Island of Martha’s Vineyard and Block Island from 1 PM Saturday until 7 AM Sunday. 8-12 inches of snow is expected to fall in this area and strong winds up to 55 mph,  will create blizzard conditions in this area. Coastal Flooding is expected to be an issue on these winds.

Winter Storm Warnings have been issued for the South Coast of Massachusetts, Rhode Island, and Connecticut including Cape Cod and Nantucket, beginning at 4 AM Saturday and ending 7 AM Sunday. 6-10 inches of snow is expected in this area. Snow will begin by mid-morning and intensify in the early afternoon and evening with snow fall rates around 1 inch per hour. Gusty winds of up to 50 mph will combine with high snowfall rates to bring near blizzard conditions at times before midnight with visibilities under half a mile.

A Winter Storm Warning has also been issued for Coastal Plymouth County and Interior Southern Rhode Island for 4-8 inches of snow. Snow will begin by mid-morning and taper off after midnight. Heavy snow and wind gusts up to 45 mph will bring visibilities down to under a mile during the late afternoon and evening on Saturday.

Winter Weather Advisories have been issued for the remainder of Plymouth and Bristol County including Brockton and for Northern Rhode Island for 3-6 inches of snow. Winds in this area will gust to 35 mph and reduce visibilities for a time.

These snowfall totals can be very hit or miss at this time. The cut off for snow from this storm is very sharp and a shift in the track of just 50 miles can dramatically alter the snowfall totals here. I will keep on this system for the remainder of the day and will be up all night tracking the very latest in details

Snow will leave the Northeast Sunday morning and early afternoon.

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Robert Millette

Meteorologist

Firsthand Weather

Major Winter Storm, Mid-Atlantic and Northeast

When we last left this subject, we had Tornadoes, snow, ice, and me pulling my hair out over the newest NAM model giving Boston a foot of snow.    Oh New England, what am I going to do with you?

rain and snow

On to Virginia and the Mid Atlantic!!

West Virginia and Virginia:

Moving north from my last post into Virginia, only the Southeast portions of the state will get straight rain, most areas will have cold air being brought down for what could be a historic blizzard for portions of the state.

Blizzard Warnings are in effect for Charles, St. Mary, Calvert, Prince William, Manasas, Stafford, Spotsylvania and King George Counties.  This warning is from 1 PM Friday to 6 AM Sunday.  Heavy snow will begin Friday afternoon and while it may mix with sleet for a time east if I-95, It will change back to all snow Saturday afternoon.  18 to 24 inches of snow are expected in this region with the lower amounts near the bay.  Winds will be gusting up to 55 mph in  this area and I would strongly advise that no one in this region head out Friday night.

Winter Storm Warnings are in effect from Southeast West Virginia along and north of highway 460 towards Lynchburg and on to Appomattox.  16 to 24 inches of snow will fall in this area with the highest amounts in the Blue Ridge region. Snow will be heaviest during the mid-morning through midafternoon hours and gusty winds will reduce visibilities down to 0 in the higher terrain.

Further South and East, Central Virginia and the Interior Northern Neck region will have snow picking up late Friday morning and getting heavy at times during the afternoon and evening.  Sleet and Freezing rain may mix in some as the original low pressure system moves the west of this area before dying out as the secondary pushes north.  This changeover and possible change to rain on Saturday will help keep totals down in the 7-15 inch range with the higher totals in the Piedmont regions of central Virginia to the West and North of Richmond.

Down in the Southeast corner of the state, interior regions near Emporia, Wakefield and Williamsburg will see even lesser amounts as sleet and rain mix in with the snow.  After the mix, this area will turn to rain and have seen 2-5 inches of snow.  Though a fresh coating to an inch may occur as the precipitation changes back to snow on the backside of the low.

Heading back to West Virginia,  Central and Northwest areas of the state and including Western portions of Maryland from Hagerstown West, are set to see 18-24 inches of snow between Friday afternoon and Saturday evening.  Snow will be at its heaviest overnight Friday with strong Northeast winds reducing visibilities and making some roads in the mountains impassable.

Maryland D.C. and Delaware

Jumping over to the Eastern shore of Maryland.  The Southern tip of the Eastern shore will see snow begin Early Friday afternoon, but for those in Dorchester County, the warm oceans will mix in sleet and freezing rain before changing over to all rain for a time but additional snow accumulations are expected by Saturday afternoon and into Saturday night, leaving the county with about 6-12 inches of snow.  Even lower amounts are expected towards Wicomico and Somerset counties, as well as Inland Sussex County in Maryland, and Cape May County and Coastal Ocean County in New Jersey, where 2 to 6 inches may fall and Winter Storm Watches are in effect.  Sleet and then Rain will be a major factor in this area as temperatures climb into the upper 30s late Friday and stay that way through Saturday afternoon.  Worcester County will see very little snow and ice and accumulations of less than 2 inches are expected before the changeover to rain in this area.

For the remainder of the Eastern Shore and Kent and New Castle Delaware, 10 to 16 inches of snow is possible from Friday night into Sunday morning.  Blizzard conditions are possible during the day on Saturday as heavy snow, high winds, and cold temperatures combine before tapering off.

For the remainder of Maryland and D.C, Blizzard Warnings are in effect from 3 PM Friday until 6 AM Sunday, expect starting at 6 PM near Baltimore.   The Eastern Suburbs of DC and Baltimore can expect 18 to 24 inches of snow as sleet mixes in along and east of 95, but the western suburbs are in the bullseye as 24 to 30 inches of snow will fall where sleet does not mix with the snow.  Winds will gust to 50 mph creating whiteout conditions overnight Friday.  Anyone living in this area will want to be off the roads by early to mid-Friday afternoon.

rain and snow

Pennsylvania, New Jersey and New York:

Much of the action with this system will take place in Southern and Eastern Pennsylvania.

In the West, Winter Weather Advisories are in effect for Washington, Westmoreland, Allegheny, and Indiana Counties including Pittsburgh for 4-6 inches of snow beginning on Friday afternoon and ending late Saturday afternoon.  Just east of there, Cambria, Blair, Huntington, Mifflin, Juniata and Schuylkill Counties are under Winter Storm Watches for 4-8 inches of snow during the same time period.  From Greene County over to York County and up to Dauphin and Lebanon Counties, Winter Storm Warnings are in effect for 6 to 12 inches of snow with as much as 24 inches along the Maryland border in places.

The bullseye region for here is from Philadelphia down to just inland of Atlantic City up through Trenton, Newark, New York City and out to Long Island.  Blizzard Watches are in effect for 8-16 inches of snow.  Less by the coastlines and more inland.  Blizzard conditions are possible during the day and evening on Saturday as heavy snow, winds as high as 40 mph, and cold temperatures combine before tapering off.

For Counties further inland, a line from the city of Reading, through Allentown and Morristown to West Milford and into Peekskill New York and the rest of the Lower Hudson Valley, Winter Storm Watches are in effect for 4-10 inches of snow beginning late on Friday or Early Saturday before tapering off Sunday morning.  This snow is expected to be very heavy and wet which reduces the chances of blowing and drifting snow.

New England:

Data on New England snowfall continues to change by the hour.  The gradient of snowfall in this location is massive and a difference of just 20 miles in the track of the storm can be the difference between no snow and half a foot.  Model outputs from earlier today gave Providence a foot of snow while giving Boston less than an inch and model data on whether or not this region will get hit is all over the place.

close shave

What I can tell you is this, Maine, Vermont and New Hampshire are simply too far north to get in on this system.  The real question, and I do not yet have a good answer for readers in these locations, is what will happen in Southern New England. Any snowfall that does occur here will not arrive until Saturday afternoon and would taper off late Sunday.  So I will be up bright and early to begin looking at the 6Z and 12 Z runs of the models.  Consensus or not this region will have a forecast by Friday.

 

Please be aware that strong winds and coastal flooding will be a risk from North Carolina all the way through New England on the astronomically high tide.

 

Thank you for sticking with us on this incredibly busy day.  We will see you bright and early Friday.

 

Robert Millette

Meteorologist

Firsthand Weather

Major Winter Storm Starts Across The South

snowstorm

A major winter storm is in the process of bringing a little bit of everything with a Tornado watch issued for through parts of Texas, Louisiana and Mississippi and winter weather warnings from Arkansas and Kansas all the way to New York City across 19 different states with snow or rain falling in 24 states. A potentially record breaking blizzard is expected to hit the mid-Atlantic and fall just short of hitting New England. Currently, locations under winter weather advisories are also under Severe Thunderstorm warnings and the tornado watch box for today is adjacent to counties that have winter weather advisories issued for later on today. It’s important for those who are in the worse affected areas to prepare themselves for what’s about to hit them. Do the basics like have a home safety kit, have enough food and water for at least 3 days, etc. You should also act fast after the storm has passed, checking your property for any damage it sustained. If you need to get roofing howard county md repairs after your roof was damaged in the storm then make sure you get it repaired quickly before it causes water damage. If you are a lover of dogs and enjoy taking your furry family member for walks regularly, we’d advise you to keep your dog dry as consistent wet fur for dogs can lead to illness, also it makes keeping home tidier and dry, easy.

warnings

Tornado Watches (some info is out of date now):

A Tornado Watch has been issued until 7 PM for

Angelina, Jefferson, Orange, Shelby, Hardin, Nacodoches, Sabine, Tyler, Jasper, Newton and San Augustine Counties in Texas.

Acadia, Beauregard, Cameron, Jefferson Davis, Rapides, Vermilion, Allen, Calcasieu, Evangeline, La Salle, Sabine, Vernon, Avoyelles, Caldwell, Grant, Watchitoches, St. Landry, and Winn Counties in Louisiana.

Strong to Severe Thunderstorms have been occurring in this region and will continue to occur this evening. Several Severe Thunderstorm and Tornado warnings have already been issued and this area will continue to bear watching for additional warnings this evening and even into the overnight hours as the system moves away.

A Tornado Watch has been issued until 10 PM for:

Ascension, Concordia, Iberia, Lafayette, Orleans, St. Bernard, St. James, St. Mary, Tensas, West Baton Rouge, Assumption, East Baton Rouge, Iberville, Lafourche, Plaquemines, St. Charles, St. John the Baptist, St. Tammany, West Feliciana, Catahoula, East Feliciana, Jefferson, Livingston, Pointe Coupee, St. Helena, St. Martin, Tangipahoa, and Washington Counties in Louisiana.

As well as Adams, Copiah, Franklin, Jefferson, Lamar, Lincoln, Neshona, Pike, Simpson, Warren, Amite, Covington, Hinds, Jefferson Davis, Lawrence, Madison, Newton, Rankin, Smith, Wilkinson, Claiborne, Forrest, Jasper, Jones, Leake, Marion, Pearl River, Scott, and Walthall Counties in Mississippi.

Strong to Severe Thunderstorms have been occurring in this region and will continue to occur this evening into the overnight hours. Several Severe Thunderstorm and Tornado warnings have already been issued and are currently active. This area will continue to bear watching for additional warnings this evening and even into the overnight hours as the system begins to move away.

Nebraska, Iowa, Kansas and Missouri:

Light to moderate snow showers are currently falling from an area near Lincoln and Omaha Nebraska over to Oskaloosa, Iowa and down through much of Missouri and Kansas east of Witchita.

Winter Weather Advisories have been issued for the following Counties in Kansas: Cherokee, Crawford, Bourbon, Allen, Wilson, Greenwood, Lyon, Chase, Marion, Coffey, Anderson, Linn, Miami, Franklin, Osage, Shawnee, Jackson, Atchison, Jefferson, Leavenworth, Wyandotte, Douglas and Johnson Counties.

And the following counties in Missouri: Platte, Clay, Jackson, Cass, Bates, Vernon, Barton, Jasper, Newton, McDonald, Barry Lawrence, Dade, Cedar, Saint Clair, Henry, Johnson, Benton, Morgan, Hickory, Camden, Polk, Greene, Christian, Stone, Taney, Ozark, Douglas, Webster, Wright, Dallas, Laclede, Miller, Maries, Pulaski, Phelps, Texas, Dent, Shannon, Howell and Oregon

No advisories are issued for Nebraska or Iowa.

The further North and West you are the earlier these advisories will end with the first advisories ending at 4 PM CST and the last advisories ending around midnight CST.

A period of light to moderate snow is possible but the showers and squalls in this region are quickly diminishing. Accumulations of an inch are possible where these showers hold together with maybe 3-4 inches in the extreme Southeast corner of the state. As warm air begins to move back in at the surface this afternoon, patchy freezing drizzle is possible as the system pulls away. This region missed out on the storm for the most part as it developed too far to the south and east but the system will make the evening commute hazardous in many areas in this region none the less.

Arkansas and Northern Louisiana:

A Winter Weather Advisory has been issued for the following Counties: Marion, Baxter, Fulton, Izard, Sharp, Randolph, Searcy, Stone Pope, Van Buren, Conway, Yell, Montgomery, Pike, Clark, Ouachita, Calhoun and Bradley.

The advisory is in effect from 6 PM until 9 AM Friday CST.

Some freezing rain and drizzle will impact this area through this evening and additional showers of freezing rain, sleet and snow are likely overnight into the early morning hours of Friday. A few hundreaths of an inch of ice accretion can be expected in the Advisory area with snow and sleet accumulations of up to an inch with locally higher amounts up to 2 inches possible.

A Winter Storm Warning has been issued for the following Counties in Arkansas: Sharpe, Lawrence, Randolph, Greene, Clay, Independence, Jackson, Craighead, Poinsett, Mississippi, Cleburn, Faulkner, White, Woodruff, Cross, Saint Francis, Crittenden, Perry, Garland, Saline, Pulaski, Lonoke, Prairie, Monroe, Lee Phillips, Hot Spring, Grant, Jefferson, Arkansas, Dallas, Cleveland, Lincoln, Desha, Drew, Ashley and Chicot

And the following Counties in Louisiana: Morehouse, West Carroll, East Carroll, Richland and Madison.

Winter Storm warnings are in effect starting around 6 PM in Northern Arkansas and lasting until 6 PM Friday in Southern Arkansas and Louisiana. A trace to a few hundredths of an inch of ice is expected to fall across this area with 2-5 inches of snow and locally higher amounts expected as the storm begins to move away. Snow will fall more heavily for a time in the Eastern Central to Southeastern sections of this watch area but more rain will fall the further south you go and will keep amounts slightly lower in Louisiana and extreme Southeast Arkansas but the east central portion of the state could see as much as a foot of snow as heavy snow moves in towards the end of the storm.

Map valid for Friday morning

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Per the map , you can see precipitation moving into the Southeastern states as well as Kentucky, and towards the Mid-Atlantic.

Mississippi, Alabama, Tennessee, Kentucky, Illinois, Indiana Ohio and West Virginia:

In Mississippi, North of Warren, Yazoo, Holmes, Attala, Winston and Noxubee, Winter Storm Warnings are in effect. More snow will fall in the western portion of the state where up to a foot of snow could fall as the cold air wraps around the back of the system. 3-6 inches will fall around Jackson with amounts dropping to 1-3 as you go toward the Alabama state line. For an interesting fun note, Warren County is currently under a Tornado Watch and then under the winter weather advisory for later on. Anyone for a tornadic thunder snow storm?

In Alabama, north of Pickens, Tuscaloosa, Jefferson, Shelby, Talladega, Clay and Cleburne Counties,

Winter Weather Advisories are in effect for an inch to 2 inches of snow. Rain will dominate the precipitation in this Alabama as the storm moves north and bring warm gulf air into the region but a late changeover to snow is possible for many areas as cold air wraps around the backside of the storm as it moves east. Accumulations are expected to be light but some sleet could fall during the transition as cold air at the surface moves in quicker than cold air aloft.

For Tennessee, every county in the state is under a Winter Weather Alert of some type. The middle of the state is under Winter Weather Advisories for 1-3 inches of snow. This area will also be impacted by the warm gulf air moving up into the region as the storm moves to the Northeast. After the initial low dissipates, the cold air coming in on the backside of the system will allow for a period of sleet and snow to occur and bring light accumulations to the area. In Western Tennessee, cold air will move in quicker as the storm stays south of Memphis and an area bounded by the state line towards Nashville will see amounts ranging from 4 inches upwards to a foot along the state line. Eastern portions of the state will see slightly higher amounts with 3-6 inches possible as precipitation begins as some snow and ice before changing to rain and then back to snow.

For Massac, Pope and Harden Counties in Illinois, Freezing rain is a major threat up to 2 tenths of an inch of freezing rain may fall with 3-6 inches of snow slated to fall.

The entire state of Kentucky is under winter weather warnings as freezing rain and snow are expected to accumulate through most of the state. Freezing rain accretion will be lower further east with a trace up to 2 tenths of an inch near Illinois. Nearly the entire state can expect at least 3 inches of snow with a swath from Louisville South expecting higher amounts throughout the entire state up towards 6 to 12 inches of snow. Eastern portions of the state as you approach the Appalachians will see 12-24 inches through the central part of the state.

In Indiana, Vandenburg, Warrick, Spencer, Dubois, Perry, Crawford, Orange, Washington, Harrison, Floyd, Clark, Scott, Jefferson, Switzerland, Ohio Counties are under Winter Weather Advisories for 1 to 4 inches of snow. These areas are on the northern fringe of the precipitation shield and will not see as much snow as areas to the south in Kentucky. Some counties to the north if these will see some wintry precipitation but only minor accumulations are expected.

For Ohio, Hamilton, Clermont, Clinton, Fayette, Pickaway, Fairfield, Perry, Muskingum, Guernsey, Belmont, Noble, and Monroe are under Winter Weather Advisories for 1-4 inches of snow. Similar to Indiana, these counties are on the fringe of the precipitation and will not see as much.

Brown, Adams, Highland, Ross, Pike, Scioto, Lawrence, Jackson, Gallia, Meigs, Vinton, Athens, Hocking, and Washington in Ohio are under Winter Storm Warnings for 4-8 inches of snow. This region will miss the really heavy stuff to the south.

Georgia, South Carolina, North Carolina, and Florida:

Florida will be a state that sees all rain and it presently has very little in the way of storm activity with a lone Severe Thunderstorm Warning active at the time of this writing. Friday will be a different story as the Storm Prediction Center gives a slight risk of severe weather to Northern Florida and Southern Georgia. While Florida won’t see any snow, showers and thunderstorms can be expected across the entire state.

For Georgia, only light amounts of snow are expected with 1-3 inches of snow and some light icing for the northern part of the state. Winter Weather Advisories have been issued for anywhere north of a Carrollton to Jonesboro to Lexington line including Atlanta.

A Freezing rain advisory has been issued in South Carolina for a line from Timmonsville to just north of Conway on into Castle Hayne North Carolina. A Trace up to a tenth of an inch of ice is expected in this region. Only a coating of snow may fall in this area.

Further North and West in South and North Carolina, The Piedmont region up into the mountains and foothills, including Greenville-Spartanburg and the Charlotte metro area should expect a significant icing situation with up to half an inch of ice accretion in the area. 2-10 inches of snow will fall with the higher amounts in the mountains and the lower amounts on the Piedmont. This ice and snow, along with gusty winds greatly increases the risk of power outages and makes for very dangerous travel. Any preparations for this storm should be completed by tonight.

The coastal plain for North Carolina also has winter weather advisories issued until 11 AM Friday. There will be about a tenth of an inch of snow and some small sleet accumulations. This will be a mostly rain event for this area as the storm develops off the coast.

Everything You Need To Know About This Upcoming Winter Storm

As promised, I will keep this article brief and to the point. I have provided you with a lot of details on this upcoming winter storm already, but given that I have put out numerous updates on social media and the website at different times, I’m sure some of you have missed some important information.

Just to reiterate, a lot hasn’t changed with my overall forecast. This winter storm will be a significant winter storm for many across the United States, and it is definitely showing similar characteristics to some of the historic winter storms of the past. Overall, the forecast model guidance is in agreement other than on some of the specifics. The European model came in slightly north with its overall track and the GFS jogged slightly south. Surprisingly, I’m not in strong disagreement with the actual track that the models take this system. With that said, a jog as little as 25-50 miles north or south can make a HUGE difference, so be aware of that.

Okay, take special note of all the bullet points that I listed below:

• Snow/sleet will fall across northern Mississippi, eastern Arkansas, western Tennessee, and possibly as far south as extreme northern Louisiana on Friday. Many of those regions will start out as rain, but the transition to frozen precipitation will occur on Friday. Accumulating snow, which could be locally high in places, could fall especially across the northern third of Mississippi, the eastern third of Arkansas, and western Tennessee. Some accumulations will be possible in the other regions mentioned, too.
• A stout warm nose will be present just above the surface, extending across much of Alabama, Georgia, and eastern Tennessee. This will originally cause most of the area to start out as a cold rain, but a transition to snow/sleet will eventually occur. This will cut down on overall snowfall accumulations, but regions as far south as Atlanta and Birmingham could get some accumulating snow once the transition occurs. The heavier accumulations should occur just north of those bigger cities.
• As I have mentioned several times, there will likely be a cold air damming scenario that sets up as far south as northeast Georgia and Upstate and northern South Carolina. I expect a potentially significant ice storm (accumulations of ¼ inch of ice) to unfold across these regions starting on Friday. High ice accumulations will likely also occur across central and eastern North Carolina (likely excluding the near coastal regions). Forecast models tend to handle these scenarios horribly, but I have noticed that the guidance is handling this well today. Models could be slightly underestimating how far south this freezing rain falls. Please read the next bullet point.

Probability of greater than 1/4 inches of ice accumulations from Thursday night to Friday night:

Ice Storm Probability

• A transition to snow will eventually occur across most of the regions mentioned in the last bullet point, and the heavier accumulations will fall the farther north one goes. Snow could fall as far south as Midlands SC, but accumulating snow will be higher the farther north was one goes. I can’t even rule out some snow falling along the northern South Carolina coastal regions and near the North Carolina coast, as the cold air rushes in behind this system and moisture gets wrapped around the coastal low.
• The bullseye of very heaviest snowfall accumulations will likely fall from Kentucky into West Virginia and Virginia, including the Washington, D.C./Baltimore areas, southeastern Pennsylvania, including Philadelphia, Maryland, Delaware, and New Jersey. A region of heavy accumulations could also fall in western and north-central regions of North Carolina. This is going to be an extremely close call for New York City and Long Island, as a slight shift southward in track will remove NYC and Long Island from seeing as high of snowfall amounts. Many of these areas will be measuring snow in feet.
• Extreme southern regions of the Ohio Valley could get accumulating snow from this system, too.

Probability of greater than 4 inches of snow falling from Thursday night to Friday night (probabilities for amounts lower than 4 inches aren’t included):

snow prob map 1

Probability of greater than 4 inches of snow falling from Friday night to Saturday night (probabilities for amounts lower than 4 inches aren’t included):

snow prob map 2

I including every region that could possibly be impacted by this system. If you are on the edges of any of the regions that I just mention, be aware that a slight jog 25 miles north or south could be the difference between getting snow accumulations or very little snow at all. Also, as energy gets transferred to the coast, a dry slot will probably eventually set up somewhere. Keyword SOMEWHERE. Nailing that down will be pretty difficult, and wherever this sets up, this could cut down on overall accumulations for some of you.

Overall, I’m very pleased with the forecast. Hopefully this clears up some of your questions. Most of you are well-aware of how a slight change in track could change the forecast significantly for some of you, especially if you’re on those borderline zones. I will have continuous coverage tomorrow on this winter storm.

By the way, the image used as the feature image in this article was from last winter, taken in Grafton, MA by Sevag Sarkisian. I figured it was fitting for this article!

Major, Possibly Historic, Winter Storm On The Way

snowstorm analog

There are is definitely a lot to discuss with the upcoming Friday/Saturday winter storm that could end up being significant and potentially historic. While it has become certain that there will be a big winter storm, the uncertainty lies in determining the overall storm track and placement of heaviest snowfall accumulations. Given that it’s only Tuesday night, a lot can change on specifics, so it’s important to keep that in mind, especially when reading any forecasts that are based entirely on forecast models. I know I bring this up a lot, but I always want my audience to be aware of the limitations of such an approach. I’ll be discussing the various solutions that are being shown on the latest model guidance, but in addition, I’ll be pointing out specifics that the models may not be handling well with this system. Due to the complex nature of this upcoming system, I may be required to do a follow-up article that includes some changes, if needed.

Discussion (Friday through Weekend System):

A vigorous shortwave (disturbance) will be moving into the Pacific Northwest, and as it moves southeastward, it will dig into the Southern Plains. A surface low will move/develop over the Plains in response to this disturbance and move eastward across the Southeast, as this disturbance treks eastward. This will eventually trigger the development of a long-wave trough in the eastern U.S., and colder air should begin getting wrapped around the low pressure system. This energy will eventually transfer to the coast, and a coastal low should move up the coast.

There is higher than average confidence on how this system will evolve, but the specifics on the exact track are going to be difficult to nail down. The GFS model and most of its ensembles, along with the Canadian model, have the original surface low moving up through Tennessee before its energy gets transferred to the coast. The European model is now showing a more southerly track across the Gulf Coast states, which would allow for some accumulating snow to fall farther to the south and would shift the core of heaviest snowfall farther south, also. On almost all guidance that I have seen, a pretty stout warm nose is initially present well north into eastern Tennessee and even southern regions of Kentucky. This is likely due to the placement of the original surface low and the orientation of the long-wave trough.

To complicate this forecast even further, a cold air damming scenario could set up east of the Appalachians, allowing temperatures to stay below freezing at the surface in places, despite the warm air advection that will likely try to pump northward, overrunning this cold. This sets up a tricky forecast from Northeast Georgia, parts of Upstate South Carolina/extending east and central-east North Carolina (excluding the coast) Even with the system taking a more northerly track, the colder air at the surface may not get out quickly enough before a nasty ice situation unfolds across the mentioned areas.

The latest Canadian represents this possible ice situation well on Friday:

Canadian ice

Snowfall will likely start falling across northern and central Arkansas Thursday night going into Friday and expand into parts of southern Missouri and into the western third of Tennessee. Snow will eventually spread eastward into Kentucky and parts of the lower Ohio Valley through Friday and eventually expand into the Mid-Atlantic states including West Virginia, Virginia, North Carolina, Washington, D.C., and into the Mid-Atlantic states later on Friday going into Saturday. Southern Pennsylvania, including Philadelphia could be hit hard, along with parts of New England, especially along the coast. This is going to be a slow-moving system, and backend snow could fall as far south as the northern third of Mississippi, Alabama, Georgia, much of Tennessee, and into northern parts of South Carolina. Depending on track, there will likely be a region of very heavy snowfall amounts falling, including many of the regions that I just mentioned. This system has the potential to rival or beat some of the historical winter storms of the past and is looking similar to the January 1996 blizzard.

Just To Reiterate A Few Points:

• The European model has been depicting a more southern track. I’m skeptical of this solution currently, although I’m not ruling it out entirely. If there is a southern trend in the track, snowfall accumulations would likely fall farther south and the heaviest snowfall accumulations would shift south. This would also exclude the most northern regions mentioned in this article from getting heavier accumulations.
• A warm nose extending as far north as eastern Tennessee could cause many of these regions to get rain before possibly seeing a transition to some snow (possibly heavy) on the backend of this system. Accumulations would be possible but not as heavy as in surrounding regions.
• Due to cold air damming, an icy situation could setup initially across northeastern parts of Georgia, Upstate SC and possibly extending eastward across the state and into central-eastern portions of North Carolina (excluding the coast). A transition to snow could eventually occur in these regions, with higher accumulations occurring the farther north one goes.
• The core of heaviest snow accumulations could fall somewhere from northern Arkansas/southern Missouri into northwest and north-central Tennessee, across Kentucky, and particularly into the Mid-Atlantic states extending into parts of North Carolina. Many regions in this zone could be measuring snow in feet before all is said and done.

I will continue to monitor this situation closely. I posted a map that shows a 72-hour snowfall output map based on 15 previous winter storms that look similar to this one, courtesy of CIPS Analog Guidance:

snowstorm analog

Just keep in mind that I’m expecting snow to fall west of this region as mentioned in my article, but I did want to show you this map.

Anyway, I will definitely have to make edits to this forecast, since it’s a difficult and tricky forecast. Someone is going to get hit very hard with this winter storm, and at this point, it’s a matter of determining where. More updates to come. . .

Forecast confidence grows for a major Winter Storm

The forecast models are showing good consistency on a potentially large winter storm that will move across Texas on Thursday with heavy rain across much of the South and ending with snow across much of the Northeast on Sunday.  A lot will depend on the ultimate track of the system and more of this will come into focus during the next few days.  I will not be going into the my usual in-depth focus on local regions as it is still far too early to be looking at those details (at least for the Northeast) but this article is here to give you at least a broad outline of what we will be looking at over the coming days as more details for this winter storm come into focus.

On Thursday, rain will develop across Eastern Texas and Oklahoma and spread east towards Northern and Central Alabama and Georgia on into the Carolinas and Western Virginia with some potentially heavy rains across the Central Mississippi River Valley up into Tennessee.  Some light icing could be a risk from Southeastern Missouri, Southern Illinois and Indiana into Central Kentucky and snow will be falling from  Southeastern Kansas into Northeastern Oklahoma and Southern and Central Missouri.

Tuesday rain

By Friday, heavy rain will continue up into Kentucky with rains trailing down into the Florida panhandle along the cold front.  Light ice could again be a risk in North Carolina and Virginia along the state borders while snow will fall along the Northern edge of the precipitation shield and behind the system as cold air wraps around from Northeast Arkansas and near the Memphis area across Southern Illinois, Indiana, Ohio and across much of West Virginia and Western, Central and Northern Virginia to begin Friday.

As we move into Friday afternoon, Heavy Rain will push up into Southern West Virginia, the Carolina and Southeastern Virginia as the old low begins to weaken in favor of a new coastal low that develops. Heavy rain will move into the Carolinas during this time period.  Snow will continue across the western and northern edges of the precipitation shield from Western Tennessee around through Southern Illinois, Indiana, Ohio, Northern Western Virginia, Southern Pennsylvania and Northern and Central Virginia.

Tuesday rain

Once the Coastal Low redevelops, Heavy rain will fall along the coastal regions of the Carolinas and Virginia up into the Delmarva Peninsula up towards DC and Baltimore, both of which will be very close to the rain snow line. Rain will change over to snow back in the Appalachians region as precipitation begins to end in western areas of Tennessee, Southern Illinois and Indiana on Friday night.  Beginning late Friday and early Saturday, High pressure over Kansas and Oklahoma will combine with the Coastal low to create a flow that will generate topographic snow along the Appalachian chain with light snow continuing throughout Kentucky into portions Tennessee.  Snow will continue to fall over most of Ohio and Pennsylvania with heavy snow in the Philadelphia Metro region while snow begins to fall along the Pennsylvania and New York border and across the New York City Metro area and Long Island into Southeastern New England.

Tuesday rain

By Saturday afternoon, rain should have moved out of the Carolinas with the exception of a few rain and snow showers with the western and central parts of the state. Wrap around snow will continue along the Appalachians and rain will change to snow in the DC and Baltimore areas as the rain snow line retreats toward the coast.  Snow should be falling throughout all of Southern New England including the cape as snow begins to move into the areas around Manchester New Hampshire, Portland Maine, Rutland Vermont and Albany and Syracuse New York.

Current thinking has the storm rapidly developing southeast of New England near the benchmark bringing heavy snow the Eastern New England with a potential change over to some rain in southern coastal locations and especially on the cape.  Coastal areas where the changeover does not occur will be the hardest hit by snow.

Tuesday rain

Snow will have mostly withdrawn from areas outside the northeast by Sunday morning with the last bits of snow pulling out of the Boston area and Eastern Maine Sunday evening.

Precipitation will not be the only risk with this system for coastal areas from the Mid Atlantic into New England as gale to storm force winds will help create some coastal flooding issues on the astronomically high tide. The timing of this system will heavily determine the coastal flooding chances for low lying areas.

 

Robert Millette

Meteorologist

Firsthand Weather

Double Trouble for Northeast

2 low pressure systems, one near the Great Lakes and another off the eastern seaboard, will head towards the Northeast this Friday and Saturday.

gap

Warm air has surged into the Northeast ahead of these systems and the precipitation will be mainly rain south of Northern New England and New York.  Rain should begin from Maryland and Pennsylvania up through New Jersey during late evening Friday into the overnight hours from the Southwest to Northeast direction.  By Saturday morning, Western Pennsylvania by Pittsburgh and Erie as well as Buffalo New York should change over to snow as cold air moves in on the backside of the Low over the Great Lakes, which should have moved over Lake Huron into Canada by Saturday morning.  The area of New York from Binghamton to Rochester and Syracuse should take long to change over to snow as warm air continues to hold in place due to the low pressure system on the coast line, however, locations in the mountains of the Northern Adirondacks from North of Albany towards Plattsburgh and sections of the Green Mountains near Burlington and Montpelier should be changing over to snow in the higher elevations while Southern New England and Southern counties of Vermont and New Hampshire, including Rutland, Manchester and Nashua should start as rain during this time frame.  Some light snow should be falling North of the concord area into Maine by Lewiston with rain along the coast near Portland.

Precipitation will end in Pennsylvania, Maryland and Southern and Central areas of New Jersey by Saturday afternoon, except for Lake Effect snow on the Southern side of Lake Erie and Mountain induced snow  in the Appalachians as precipitation pulls Northeast with heavy rain in the Boston to Providence corridor and snow moving into Bangor and Houlton Maine.  Precipitation begins to end during the evening and overnight in Southern New England and most of Northern New England South of Houlton Maine with clearing skies for all of the Northeast by Sunday afternoon.

gap

In Massachusetts, Winter Weather Advisories are in effect from 11 PM Friday night until Noon on Saturday from The Eastern Berkshires through Worcester County and Northwest Middlesex County including the Cities of Springfield, Worcester, Lowell and Haverhill in Massachusetts as well as Nashua, Portsmouth, Manchester and Concord New Hampshire.  Light icing will be a problem in these areas and while the Massachusetts areas should transition to rain, areas of New Hampshire will see 2-4 inches of snow on top of the ice.

Areas in New Hampshire near North Conway, over to Portland Maine should see between 3-6 inches of snow on top of some light ice with 4-8 inches as you move towards Rangeley and Greenville Maine including Augusta and Bangor out to Calais.  Areas near Presque Isle and the surrounding region could see 5 to as much as 10 inches in some spots.  Winter Weather Advisories are in place for these regions except for Presque Isle due to timing issues.  The advisories can only go up so far ahead of the precipitation.  Winter Storm Warnings may be needed further north but have not yet been issued.

Robert Millette

Firsthand Weather

Meteorologist

Southern Winter Storm Possible Late This Weekend But Uncertainty Exists

GFS snow model

I’m going to start this article by making two brutally honest remarks. First, there are a few uncertainties with this forecast, and if there is ever going to be a forecast that I’ll have to make some changes to, it’ll be this one. Secondly, I’ve seen statements from several meteorologists saying things like, “the European model almost always performs better than the GFS so the GFS model shouldn’t be taken seriously with the southern winter storm prediction.” That’s just awful meteorology. Yes, saying that the European model often does better than the American models is true. That’s fact. However, it isn’t an excuse for not analyzing the entire scenario fully, which I intend to do. Just assuming that a model will be right, regardless of how good it is, is never a safe position to be in.

We have a tricky forecast period on our hands. I’ve stated countless times that just after January 15th would be the timeframe to watch for a potential winter storm across parts of the South. The January pattern so far has fit the description very well of this being a transition month, and as predicted, there have been intermittent warmups in between. A similar pattern should continue throughout the rest of this month before more sustained cold may try to establish itself across the eastern U.S. in February. The first few initial surges of Arctic air have been more potent each time, and while these air masses have been cold, they haven’t been hugely impressive very far south. This is not too big of a surprise, but still, it’s been much colder for many than last month was.

A shortwave (a disturbance) will be moving in along the Pacific jet stream into the United States this week. This will aid in the deepening of a surface low pressure system that will move across the northern U.S., eventually reaching the Great Lakes towards the end of the week into the weekend. A separate wave will move northeast from Mexico and likely trigger the development of a coastal low early this weekend. The energy from the northern system will probably eventually transfer to the coastal low. The Northern Plains and Great Lakes region will initially get some snow from the northern system and parts of the Northeast will also get some snow from this. Parts of the Ohio Valley and surrounding regions could see some snow on the backend of this system as Arctic air rushes southward into the U.S. from Canada this weekend.

That’s only the first event to watch!! There’s another system that could develop later in the weekend into early next week, and that’s the one that’s causing all of the rumors about possible wintry weather across the southern U.S.

Southern Winter Storm Potential – Discussion:

This is a complicated forecast. I’d be lying to you if I acted like it wasn’t. After the system that I discussed above pushes northeast, Arctic air is going to rush in behind it. We’ve seen a similar scenario occur a couple of times this month, and the models have varied on the intensity of the cold each time.

Now, some people seem to think that there has to be really cold air in the South to have a shot at getting snow, and that’s not entirely true. What some individuals fail to understand is that when an Arctic air mass drops south, it can often suppress the southern jet stream too far south for any of the southern regions to get precipitation with their cold. This late weekend/early next week scenario is going to be a good case to show you my point, whether it ends up snowing across parts of the South or not. On the heels of the first piece of energy (shortwave) that I discussed earlier, another one is going to follow right behind, digging farther to the South. As I mentioned, Arctic air is going to rush in behind the first system, setting the stages for a potential winter storm across parts of the South.

Here’s the problem and the uncertainty: timing of the southern stream system and uncertainty on how far south the cold air mass will dig. The GFS model brings in the system faster, therefore it doesn’t get suppressed nearly as far south as what the European model shows. That’s why it has been consistently showing a southern winter storm. The European model has the southern system coming in much slower; therefore, the long-wave trough would already be well established across the eastern U.S. with surface high pressure much farther south. As a result, the system would get suppressed too far south to be a threat to the southern U.S. Now, some of you may be thinking, “Matthew, why not go with the European model since it often performs better than the American models do?”

I think that’s a legitimate question. This is what everyone needs to keep in mind. The GFS model actually has done better with modeling the potency of these Arctic air masses so far this winter. In the medium and long-range, the European model has tended to be too aggressive, and there are a handful of reasons these air masses haven’t been AS cold, although still cold. Also, the European model often ends up being too slow with southern stream systems and holds them back too long. Since the timing of this southern system is so crucial, it’s going to be the difference between a southern winter storm and not. During El Nino winters, southern stream disturbances often race more quickly across the U.S. along an active sub-tropical jet stream. We’ve already seen this happen so far this winter, particularly this month. In fact, the strong Pacific jet stream is likely one of the culprits behind why colder air hasn’t been able to establish itself over the eastern U.S. over a long period of time, due to the western ridge getting knocked down, which again, isn’t too surprising at this point in January given the current El Nino strength.

This GFS model brings the system much farther north as you can see. Keep in mind that each image depicts only one point in time. There would likely be a rain to snow changeover for some of these regions, and the specifics on location will change A LOT.

gfs snow map 1

GFS snow model

On the other hand, the European model has the southern wave coming in slower, keeping it suppressed south. Notice the feature in the western Gulf:

european model snow

So honestly, it’s the battle of the models. I hope that I gave you a compelling reason to at least be skeptical of the European model, and while it could be right once again, there’s enough reason for me to side with the system coming farther north right now, potentially bringing a winter storm across the southern U.S. into parts of the Mid-Atlantic states late this weekend into Monday. It’s kind of ironic that southern stream systems have been coming in too quickly for a southern winter storm this month, but in this case, it actually needs to move in quickly this time. Timing is crucial in meteorology, and models often have issues forecasting individual systems with such a volatile pattern as we have now. It would be okay for the air mass to be as cold as the European model is depicting, but the southern stream system needs to move in more quickly before the air mass can suppress it too far south.

Regions that I’m watching most closely are parts of Oklahoma, northern Texas, northern Louisiana, parts of Arkansas, northern half of Mississippi, northern half of Alabama, northern half of Georgia, northern half of South Carolina, parts of North Carolina and Virginia, and parts of the Tennessee Valley. Parts of the Mid-Atlantic could be impacted, too. I know this is very general, but due to higher than average uncertainty, I can’t get more specific than that.
PLEASE understand the limitations of forecasting an event like this that is going to be highly dependent on timing. Because of the uncertainty, I will likely have to do a follow-up forecast later in the week or early this weekend.

Folks, this is a tricky forecast. I will continue to monitor this very closely and keep a close watch on the latest trends.

Winter is Coming for the East

Good evening all. While many high temperatures records were shattered from Maine down through the Delmarva over the weekend, what a difference 24 hours can make. The 0Z Upper air sounding last night in Chatham Massachusetts had temperatures above freezing all the way to the 700 millibar level, or about 3 kilometers up into the air. Now, its below freezing nearly to the surface where it sits at 34 degrees as the next blast of bitterly cold artic air is moving over the Great Lakes region and moving into the Northeast.

Currently, a low pressure system is developing over the Great Lakes region and it should move from near the Southern end of Lake Michigan over Lake Huron into Canada by Tuesday afternoon. Winter Weather Advisories are in effect from South Bend and Indianapolis Indiana east into the Pittsburg Pennsylvania and Cumberland Maryland areas for a coating to 3 inches of snow except for areas to the South and East of the Great Lakes, where lake effect snow will increase amounts into the 5-10 range with some amounts as high as a foot if a lake effect band establishes itself across the area for a prolonged duration. Some areas that have a strong squall pass through the area could see amounts as high as 4 inches on the Southern end of the precipitation area which will extend down to about Northern Virginia and across the remainder of the Winter Weather Advisory area. Areas through Ohio to Kentucky and West Virginia down through Northern Virginia, DC, and the Eastern Shore of Maryland could be hit or miss on snow totals as the system develops over them or stays far enough North that the precipitation falls more in the form of snow showers and squalls instead of a consistent light snow, but even locations in this area will see some consistent snowfall at times. Make sure to be careful with snow as well as water in your local shops as it makes it much easier to slip and fall over. If you don’t know what to do if you slip and fall in a store, you should read a guide on how to make a claim.

Along the Southern end of Lake Erie from just East of Cleveland out to Buffalo New York, a Lake Effect snow warning is in effect for between 5 to 10 inches of snow over Tuesday. Lake Effect band will persist into Wednesday after the storm passes and areas near Erie Pennsylvania that fall under the bands locations could see as much as 17 inches of snow by the end of Wednesday. A second area of Lake Effect snow will be from Syracuse to Watertown across the Tug Hill region out to Tupper Lake and Whitehall North to the Canadian border through Ogdensburg out to just West of Malone. By Thursday morning, areas that receive persistent bands of Lake Effect, which are already snow could see between 15 and 19 inches of snow with lesser amounts spread throughout the region as the storm and short duration lake effect bands move through on the wind shifts.

radar

In New England, Winter Weather Advisories are in effect for the spine of the Green Mountains from Ludlow up to Newport. In this area, 4-6 inches of snow will fall with only 2-4 further South in the Berkshires of Massachusetts. Snow will move West to East beginning in Albany Tuesday morning and then reaching Boston around the time of the evening commute. 1-3 inches will fall throughout the Southern New England region up through Southern Vermont and New Hampshire except for the coastal plain, where warm winds off the Atlantic will allow precipitation to start as rain before changing over to snow as colder air moves in. Only a coating to an inch will fall in those areas.

rain and snow

North of there, in Northern New Hampshire Vermont and especially Maine, a redeveloping low pressure off the coast in the Gulf of Maine will allow for higher snow totals. From Concord New Hampshire and Portland Maine North, 3-6 inches could fall up to Bangor North and East, where 6-12 inches of snow could fall as you go further northeast and Winter Storm Warnings as in effect for this area. The Canadian Maritimes will be especially hard hit by this system.

winter

Robert Millette

Firsthand Weather

Meteorologist

Wet Windy and Warm for the Northeast this weekend

Good overnight to all of you!  A lot of the comments we receive when we put out forecasts ask about forecasts for specific areas.  In the past, Firsthand Weather has done forecasts for large areas and while we do try to break those forecasts down for local areas on specific storms, we have not generally in the past dedicated forecasting duties to certain regions.  This article will be the first in an effort to change that for you and to bring more regional and localized forecasting to certain areas.  Obviously since there are only 2 of us, this will be limited at first.  But if this endeavor is well received, we would look to expand it to other areas.   For myself,  I’m Rob and I’ll be forecasting for the Northeast region, from Pennsylvania, Maryland and Delaware up through Maine.  I’m located in the Boston Metropolitan area and have over a decade of experience forecasting in this region.   While I will certainly mention locations outside my area, as storms not in my region can still effect my region as you’ll see below, my forecasts will be dictated by those boundaries.  Firsthand Weather will continue coverage on a national scale as well, so we aren’t leaving you, but this will serve as a test case to see how much demand there is for a more localized forecast.  Without further adieu.

2 Low pressure systems are set to effect the Northeast by the end of this weekend with some heavy rains soaking much of the area through Sunday and snow and ice falling in some locations.  Strong winds and potentially record breaking warm temperatures will accompany these systems starting tonight in Western Pennsylvania and New York and concluding Monday morning for Northern Maine with the exception of Lake Effect Snow Showers that will remain on the Northwesterly winds.

Beginning tonight, a weak low pressure system near Chicago will move towards Upper Michigan and be near Sault Ste. Marie by Saturday morning.  Light rain, light snow and freezing drizzle will move through Western and Central Pennsylvania and New York.  The general instability brought by this system will be impacting the remainder of the region with light rain, snow or freezing drizzle through morning.   Currently, Winter Weather Advisories are in effect from Cumberland and Thurmont Maryland up through Central PA including Berlin, Lewiston, Hyde, Kane and Wellsboro.  The Advisory then extends along the PA/NY border to Scranton and down to East Stroudsberg staying just North and East of Allentown.  This Advisory extends east to Suffern New Jersey and North, through Binghamton, Middletown, Delhi and up along I-81 towards the Southern Tug Hill region.  The advisory is for a trace to a tenth of an inch of ice accretion and a small coating of sleet and snow.  This has the potential to lead to very slippery conditions on the roadways.  Areas near Buffalo and Rochester are not under an advisory due to warm air moving into the region off the Great Lakes, which are very warm for this time of year.

lakes temps

With temperatures as marginal as they are, this snow will not stay around long.  Temperatures will get above Freezing well into Quebec and even portions of Canada will be seeing plenty of rain with this system.

temps

For New England, The Eastern slopes of the Berkshires in Massachusetts, as well as non coastal areas of Fairfield and New Haven Counties, are under Winter Weather Advisories for a light mix of frozen precipitation until Saturday morning.  Northern Worcester County could also see some light frozen precipitation but no accumulations are expected beyond a Trace.  Temperatures have already climbed above freezing in other Southern New England locations and any precipitation should fall as rain.    Further North, Vermont should escape any accumulations beyond a Trace, but New Hampshire and Southern Maine, including Waterville, Lewiston, Portland,and Rockland will see light amounts.  Northern Maine, including Ellsworth, Bangor, Houlton, Allagash and Presque Isle are under Winter Weather advisories for less than an inch of snow with light accumulations of ice for late tonight into Saturday afternoon.

A gap in between the 2 storms is occurring on Saturday in Pennsylvania and during the overnight period for New York with clearing in New England Saturday afternoon and evening.  After that, a much stronger low pressure system moves into the area Saturday into Sunday.  This low pressure will bring heavy rain and very warm air into the region with a chance for several high temperature records to fall.

The second system should move into Maryland and Southwestern Pennsylvania late Saturday night as rain.  By Saturday afternoon, half an inch to an inch of rain will have fallen over most of Pennsylvania, the Maryland panhandle west of Hagerstown and Western New York including Buffalo and Rochester with only a few tenths of an inch in Eastern Maryland, Delaware and Southern New Jersey.  The heaviest rains will then move Northeast along the I-95 and I-90 Corridors.  By Sunday night, the heaviest rain will have moved through Manchester and Concord New Hampshire with amounts over 2 inches near Conway New Hampshire up into Rumford Maine and amounts between half an inch and 1 and a half inches of rain throughout the remainder of both states as well as Vermont.

weekend rain

Temperatures will climb into the mid 50’s along the New England coastline and reach above 50 as far inland as Albany with 40s from Buffalo and Pittsburgh up to Bangor Maine.  Cape May New Jersey, Dover Delaware and the Eastern Shore of Maryland will reach as high as the 60s.

temps

Following the second system, the coldest air of the year will move across the Great Lakes and turn the remaining precipitation across Western Pennsylvania, New York, and Northern areas of Vermont New Hampshire and Maine to snow.  Amounts will Erie Pennsylvania with lake enhanced snow bringing around 5 inches to the Tug Hill region.

Let us know what you think Northeasterners.

Rob Millette

Firsthand Weather

Meteorologist