Damaging Storms Possible For The Southeast & Mid-Atlantic

The storm system that generated severe thunderstorms across central parts of the country yesterday will impact the East and Southeast today. A shortwave will move out of the Tennessee Valley into the Mid-Atlantic this afternoon. At the same time, afternoon heating will have taken place coupled with a feed of rich moisture into the region. This will allow a severe threat to exists from Georgia into the Carolinas and north into New York. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has an enhanced risk of severe storms from eastern Georgia to southern Virginia (see Fig. 1 & 2). Cities within the enhanced risk are: Charlotte, NC; Raleigh, NC; and Virginia Beach, VA. A slight risk exists from eastern Alabama up to New York.

Fig. 1: SPC’s thunderstorm outlook map for Thursday

Fig. 2: SPC’s thunderstorm outlook map for Thursday (Carolina emphasis)

Afternoon convection should develop just after the lunchtime hour along and just east of your eastern mountain chain and move east (see Fig. 3). As storms move east by mid to late afternoon, they will organize into clusters across the Southeast & Mid-Atlantic (see Fig. 4).

Fig. 3: Future radar early afternoon

Fig. 4: Future radar mid to late afternoon

The main hazards are damaging winds, flash flooding, large hail and isolated tornadoes (see Fig. 5, 6, 7). There is an enhanced risk for damaging wind gusts from southern Virginia down to eastern Georgia where wind gusts of 70-80mph are possible.

Fig. 5: Tornado probability

Fig. 6: Wind probability

Fig. 7: Hail probability

Make sure you have a plan in place this afternoon and stay weather aware! Take severe thunderstorm warnings as seriously as tornado warnings.